Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)

Latest Episodes:

Sam Sherman Big Board And WR Charts Feb 11, 2026

Show notes

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TImestamps:
0:00 - BBM6 Winner Sam Sherman Shares His Charts
2:00 - Career PPR Points Per Game: 2020-2025 WR Classes
6:45 - Top 2 Season PPR Points Per Game Chart (CeeDee Lamb, Spike Seasons)
14:00 - Jameson Williams Polarizing Profile & Lions Offense Upside
19:30 - Career Yards Per Route Run Chart (Puka Nacua in a Tier of His Own)
20:00 - Luther Burden YPRR & Rashee Rice Undeniable Production
22:00 - Zay Flowers Elite Efficiency & Lamar Dysfunction
25:30 - Brandon Aiyuk Free Agency & "Doesn't Want to Play Football" Concerns
30:00 - Big Board Draft Begins: Gibbs Pick 1 & RB-Heavy Meta Discussion
33:00 - Saquon Barkley Efficiency Decline & Aging RBs
37:30 - Pickens vs. Olave: Cowboys Situation & Week 15 Quit Game
41:30 - Jayden Daniels Value Pick & Commander Skepticism
43:00 - Brock Purdy Mispriced & Pearsall Target Vacuum Upside
46:00 - Kyle Pitts, Mahomes Mispriced & Tyler Allgeier Free Agency Upside
49:00 - Running Back Free Agency Landscape (Texans, Chiefs, Cowboys)
53:00 - Matthew Golden: Tilting Playoff Performance vs. Ugly Rookie Year
57:00 - James Conner Free Agency Destinations (Chiefs, Bengals, Saints)
59:00 - Travis Kelce Late-Round Value & Retirement Risk
1:01:30 - Keaton Mitchell & Gunner Helm Deep Cuts
1:04:00 - Late-Round Dumpster Diving: Christian Kirk, Omar Cooper, Rookie WRs
1:06:00 - Brashard Smith: Only RB on Chiefs Roster & Bieniemy Connection
1:11:00 - Final Roster Recap & Outro

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First DK Draft Of The Year + Big Board Feb 10, 2026

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Your Friends Are Winning MILLIONS Without You Feb 09, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro: Road to 3,000 Drafts Begins
2:09 — Big Board Draft #1 (Pick 5): Ja'Marr Chase Start
8:06 — Kenneth Walker Free Agency Destinations
10:42 — Luther Burden Over Skattebo & Henderson
14:00 — Malik Willis Free Agency Contract Prediction
17:05 — Harold Fannin at 77: Weirdo TE Build & Sidekick TE Math
19:14 — Xavier Worthy Pick & Dusty Olds Discussion
21:50 — Denzel Boston vs. Late Rookie WRs (Concepcion, Cooper, Fields)
31:45 — Super Bowl Reaction: Drake May & Seahawks Defense
37:30 — Alec Pierce Contract Prediction & Patriots Offseason Targets
44:00 — Draft #1 Recap & Fast Draft Setup
46:30 — Big Board Draft #2 (Pick 10): Achane/McBride Start
51:00 — RB-Heavy Meta: Does Zero-RB Still Work?
52:30 — Daniel Jones Achilles Recovery & Christian Watson ACL Timeline
1:06:15 — Alvin Kamara Buried at ADP 150
1:22:05 — Big Board Draft #3 (Pick 4): True Zero-RB Build
1:27:30 — Bucky Irving Critique & Kyron Williams Breakdown
1:37:00 — Trevion Henderson ADP as Entitlement Tilt
1:38:05 — Stefon Diggs at Pick 100 Post-Super Bowl
1:47:30 — Advance Rates Don't Matter & Playoff Strategy
1:51:55 — Travis Kelce Playing in 2026? ADP Projection
2:02:53 — Outro

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Pat Kerrane On The 2026 NFL Draft Class Prospects Feb 05, 2026

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Super Bowl DFS Showdown Takes w/ Jakob Sanderson (Thinking About DFS) Feb 04, 2026

Show notes

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Will Elite Tight Ends Be The Cheat Code In Fantasy Football? (Big Board Drafts) Feb 03, 2026

Show notes

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Big Board + "The Rabbit" On Fast Draft Feb 03, 2026

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How Is Justin Herzig Going To Attack The Big Board? Jan 30, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
0:00 Justin Herzig joins + stream framing
5:00 Early board talk: Rashee Rice and Tyreek usage discussion
15:00 Veteran WR/RB value talk: Mike Evans comps + Montgomery vs Gibbs
30:00 Risk debate: Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce retirement, David Njoku ADP
45:00 Super Bowl cultural relevance tangent
1:00:00 Player takes: Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr discussion
1:15:00 WR discussion: Khalil Shakir and mid-round receiver targets
1:25:00 Prospect rabbit hole: Singleton injury + Kevin Coleman and RB takes
1:40:00 Ladd McConkey and Tyreek slot rate debate + draft bookkeeping
1:50:00 TE board talk: Bowers/McBride vs Loveland + Burrow range discussion
2:05:00 QB talk: Malik Willis and Michael Penix discussion
2:15:00 Closing segment: Javonte Williams talk + late-round wrap-up

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I’m Drafting 3,000 Best Ball Teams This Season (Here’s How I’m Starting) Jan 29, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Big Board kickoff, 3,000-team goal, and early draft season mindset
03:10 Why early Big Board ADP inefficiencies matter more than later drafts
06:00 Christian McCaffrey at 1.06 and early first-round RB vs WR decision-making
09:35 Brock Bowers in Round 2 and how stacking dynamics shape elite picks
14:15 Why quarterback stacking is structurally difficult on the early Big Board
18:00 CeeDee Lamb ceiling concerns after George Pickens trade
21:40 RB-heavy start logic: McCaffrey + Josh Jacobs and early build construction
26:15 Malik Willis speculation and early QB arbitrage strategy
31:05 Why the 2025 RB class could drive massive ADP inflation
36:30 Braelon Allen as an early Big Board breakout target
41:00 Wide receiver value pocket: Jaylen Waddle, Luther Burden, and rookie WR hierarchy
45:20 Xavier Worthy ADP debate and how to think about fragile profiles
49:05 Sidekick tool goes live and how it changes early draft decision-making
55:00 Denzel Boston prospect breakdown and early breakout signals
59:25 Tyreek Hill landing spot speculation and veteran WR portfolio theory
1:04:00 Draft 1 recap: structural review and portfolio takeaways
1:07:30 Bigger Board draft begins and how strategy shifts at higher stakes
1:11:15 Christian McCaffrey + Justin Jefferson elite anchor philosophy
1:16:35 Jayden Daniels early QB push and rushing QB ceiling logic
1:22:20 Travis Etienne + Byshell Tootin and exploiting free agency uncertainty
1:27:55 Chiefs WR speculation and Rashee Rice price dynamics
1:33:45 Chargers offense skepticism and fading Herbert-based optimism
1:39:40 Tight end landscape: Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Kraft, and mid-tier TE exposure
1:45:30 Rookie RB targets: Braelon Allen, Roman Hemby, Adam Randall
1:52:10 Bigger Board roster review and build structure evaluation
1:56:00 Third draft begins: Puka Nacua anchor and WR-heavy construction
2:01:00 Rashee Rice value pocket and Kansas City WR exposure strategy
2:06:30 Luther Burden + RJ Harvey start and hybrid roster builds
2:12:15 Jalen Hurts QB value and elite rushing QB leverage
2:18:15 Tight end and wide receiver middle-round value zones
2:23:40 Final roster recap and Big Board macro strategy summary

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FIRST BIG BOARD DRAFTS Jan 26, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00:00 Big Board stream kickoff and “3,000 teams” goal
00:02:54 Draft 1, Pick 1: Selects Trey McBride as first pick of the season
00:04:04 Draft 1, Pick 2: Selects Ashton Jeanty
00:08:06 Draft 1: Takes Kyren Williams and talks early structure (RB vs WR in half-PPR)
00:12:05 Prospect model preview and how it informs rookie rankings
00:20:18 Draft 1: Takes Jakobi Meyers for veteran stability
00:28:43 ADP commentary: explains why early base ADPs are exploitable right now
00:32:41 Draft 1: Jayden Higgins
00:43:50 Draft 1: Takes Dylan Sampson and discusses late-round targets
00:53:25 Draft 1: Takes Gunnar Helm to close out the build
00:58:24 Contest overview (Little Board, War Room) and Draft 2 begins (draft slot 5)
01:05:03 Draft 2: Takes RJ Harvey and discusses RB landing spots/need teams
01:32:13 Injury/ADP commentary segment (Ayuk, Achilles vs ACL framing)
01:41:10 Viewer Q&A: advice for starting a first streaming setup
01:45:42 Draft 3: Takes Travis Etienne and describes shifting toward RB-heavy starts
01:59:33 ADP take: calls out Chuba Hubbard price and discusses Jonathan Brooks angle
02:02:02 Draft 3: Takes Tyler Allgeier and explains the bet being made
02:11:05 Draft 3: Takes Terrence Ferguson and notes it as an early favorite pick
02:15:11 Draft 3: "Travis Kelce isn't retiring."
02:21:24 Draft 3: “Final pick of the first stream” setup and closing picks discussion.

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