Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)

Latest Episodes:

DK Best Ball ($333 Draft) Mar 11, 2026

Show notes

Code MATTEK on DraftKings: https://dkdfs.sng.link/Avkw3/begf?_dl=draftkings%3A%2F%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D783701309&pcid=428729&psn=3171&pcn=EarlyBirdBestBall&pscn=QRCode&pcrn=xx&pscid=xx&pcrid=xx&wpcid=428729&wpsrc=3171&wpcn=EarlyBirdBestBall&wpscn=QRCode&wpcrn=xx&wpscid=xx&wpcrid=xx&_forward_params=1

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0:00:00 - Intro: Kenneth Walker to Chiefs, Free Agency Reactions
0:00:33 - Max Crosby Stays a Raider & Ravens Pass on Him
0:02:43 - Bam Adebayo 83 Points — NFL Fantasy Equivalent Discussion
0:05:14 - Draft #1 Starts — Picking at 1.10
0:07:42 - Kenneth Walker Case: Kareem Hunt TD Comp & Ceiling
0:13:52 - Garrett Wilson Value with Geno Smith
0:19:20 - Breaking: Aaron Jones Re-Signs with Vikings
0:20:00 - Chiefs Red Zone Run/Pass Split Data Deep Dive
0:26:00 - Fan Bias and How It Affects Your Draft Decisions
0:30:00 - Jadarian Price SLAP Sim Scores — Combine Loser
0:35:55 - Breaking: Chig Okonkwo Signs with Commanders
0:38:30 - David Njoku Landing Spots / Commanders Offseason Plan
0:51:37 - Draft #1 Final Recap
0:54:29 - Draft #2 Starts — Jameer Gibbs at 1.2
0:55:26 - Chiefs 5-Round Mock NFL Draft
1:03:00 - Breece Hall with Geno Smith — Back In?
1:07:16 - Making the Case for Jalen Hurts ADP Value
1:19:11 - Late-Round RB Landscape: Keaton Mitchell, Brian Robinson Jr.
1:33:37 - Breaking: Vikings Targeting Kyler Murray — ADP Impact
1:41:40 - $333 Contest Fills — Draft #3 Begins
1:47:00 - Kareem Hunt Re-Sign Odds / Walker Passing-Down Role
1:54:24 - Swolecutta Golf Teaser / Masters Preview
2:02:00 - Third Quarterback Theory in Best Ball
2:08:54 - New Tool Preview: Dynasty Trade Calculator
2:33:07 - Outro

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Jakob Sanderson + DK High Stakes Mar 09, 2026

Show notes

0:00:00 - Intro: Free Agency Day, Kenneth Walker to KC Chiefs
0:11:21 - Travis Etienne Saints Landing Spot Analysis
0:15:10 - Tyler Allgeier to Arizona Cardinals Breakdown
0:23:05 - Jakob Sanderson Joins: Alec Pierce/Pittman Trade Colts Reaction
0:41:22 - Draft #1 Starts (Pick 8): Live Best Ball Draft
0:42:25 - Mike Evans to San Francisco 49ers Breakdown
0:56:19 - ETN Saints Deep Dive: Kellen Moore, Touches, Landing Grade
1:03:50 - Chris Godwin Gains Big With Evans Departure from Tampa
1:08:22 - Keaton Mitchell Not Tendered by Ravens — Potential Destinations
1:10:14 - Josh Downs Value Spike With Pittman Trade to Pittsburgh
1:32:12 - Wandale Robinson Titans Contract Reaction
1:37:41 - Draft #2 Starts (Pick 1.02): Bijan Robinson Lead
1:42:16 - Rico Dowdle Remaining Unsigned — Commanders/Seahawks/Broncos
1:44:36 - Tyreek Hill Likely Returns to Chiefs on Veteran Minimum
1:48:03 - RJ Harvey Moving Down: JK Dobbins Re-Signs with Broncos
1:52:38 - Draft #2 Team Recap: Bijan, Henry, Pickens, Lamar Stack
2:09:53 - Draft #3 Starts ($333 Tournament): McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker
2:51:55 - Draft #3 Final Team Recap: Purdy/Murray QB Stack

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Stefon Diggs Released (Best Ball Drafts) Mar 04, 2026

Show notes

00:00:00 - Intro & DraftKings $250K Best Ball Overview
00:01:19 - David Montgomery ADP Discussion & Rankings Update
00:03:59 - Draft #1 Begins (Pick 8)
00:07:01 - RJ Harvey & Cam Skattebo Bearish Reports, Moving Down
00:15:05 - New Prospect Sim Score Database Posted to Patreon
00:22:46 - Rico Dowdle Pick & Free Agent Landing Spot Projections
00:33:05 - Brandon Aiyuk Knee Injury Rumor & Fading Him Entirely
00:39:41 - Late-Round Aaron Rodgers Strategy Explained
00:41:17 - QB Pricing Philosophy: Why Skip Penix & Brissett
00:48:19 - Draft #1 Recap — Final Team Breakdown
00:49:06 - Between Drafts: Swolecast School Match Game
00:53:18 - Draft #2 Begins (Pick 7)
00:55:28 - CMC + Brock Bowers Stack Consideration
01:00:05 - CMC, Rashee Rice, Bowers & Devonta Smith Core Built
01:14:09 - Jordan Love Pick — Stack Complete
01:25:10 - BREAKING: Patriots Releasing Stefon Diggs
01:27:06 - Gaming Out Diggs' Best Ball Impact & AJ Brown to Patriots
01:31:20 - Diggs to the 49ers? Best Landing Spot Projection
01:42:25 - Draft #2 Recap — Final Team Breakdown
01:42:54 - Outro & Upcoming Content

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David Montgomery Trade + Combine Takes (Best Ball Drafts) Mar 02, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Mike Washington Jr. Combine Recap & SLAP Model Update
0:02:33 - David Montgomery Traded to Houston Texans
0:05:22 - Updated Rankings & Patreon Export Fix
0:09:25 - Emmett Johnson Draft Capital Concerns
0:10:29 - Draft #1 Starts (Pick 5): JSN & Bowers Opening
0:20:15 - Joe Mixon Injury Rumors & ADP Fallout
0:23:25 - Giants Running Back Rumors (Love to NYG?)
0:26:00 - Christian Watson ADP & Green Bay WR Outlook
0:31:00 - David Montgomery at Pick 92 & Hot Seat Coaches
0:36:12 - Deion Burks: Deep Sleeper WR Prospect Breakdown
0:43:00 - Rashid Shaheed to the Raiders Free Agency Case
1:03:00 - Draft #1 Recap & Draft #2 Starts (Pick 6)
1:07:00 - Malik Nabers Injury Concerns & Recovery Timeline
1:13:00 - Draft #2 Full Boomer Build: McCaffrey/Barkley/ETN
1:29:00 - Malik Willis Rushing Upside & QB Value
1:53:18 - Draft #3 Starts (Pick 5): Bryce Lance Deep Dive
2:07:00 - Combine Darlings: Full RAS & SLAP Model Breakdown
2:22:00 - Matthew Berry Combine Article: Free Agency Intel Dump
2:37:00 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Bets & Outro

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DraftKings Best Ball w/ Sackreligious! Feb 27, 2026

Show notes

0:00:00 - Intro: Algier contract, Sidekick, chasing $250k
0:05:03 - Jaccard score and uniqueness in drafts
0:07:35 - Rashee Rice risk modeling and suspension outcomes
0:09:11 - Personal conduct policy, Zeke suspension example
0:13:29 - Ramondre Stevenson + Mike Evans mid-round targets
0:23:50 - Sam Darnold price and QB market confusion
0:30:09 - Drafting mindset: detach from “favorite guy” takes
0:35:02 - Michael Penix trade value and Falcons QB leverage
0:40:14 - Rookie tight end class depth and expectations
0:45:02 - Combine hunting: Tight End RAS sleepers and athleticism
0:49:45 - Fading certain TEs: Colby Parkinson, Evan Engram
0:54:32 - QB carousel: Andy Dalton, Derek Carr team fits
1:04:15 - Travis Kelce and the shifting TE landscape
1:10:17 - Bill's pass-catcher room and Josh Palmer concerns
1:12:45 - Trey Benson evaluation and why vibes shifted
1:20:06 - Do the Chiefs need a great RB?
1:30:00 - Draft recap: final team build

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DK Best Ball Week Begins! Feb 23, 2026

Show notes

0:00 - Javonte Williams Signs w/ Cowboys & DraftKings Training Camp Intro 3:47 - Draft #1 Starts (Pick 11) 5:38 - DraftKings vs. Underdog Scoring Differences 7:56 - De'Von Achane Pick & Dolphins Coaching Change Defense 30:22 - Alec Pierce & Michael Pittman Free Agency Deep Dive 39:06 - Braylon Allen & Breece Hall Trade Rumors 48:08 - Travis Kelce Not Retiring & Late-Round TE Value 55:41 - Draft #2 Starts (Pick 6) — McCaffrey 1:04:03 - Kirk Cousins & Joe Flacco Landing Spots 1:17:25 - Michael Pittman Jr. Destination Breakdown 1:21:58 - Rookie RB Pass Blocking Is Overrated (PFF Deep Dive) 1:43:03 - Draft #3 Starts — Zero RB Experiment 1:47:55 - Omar Cooper Jr. SLAP Score w/ First-Round Capital 1:54:49 - Luther Burden: This Year's JSN Breakout 1:56:38 - Jalen Waddle Statistical Defense

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Big Board Drafts To Send You To The Weekend Feb 20, 2026

Show notes

0:00 - Intro & Draft #1 Starts (Pick 2, Underdog Big Board)
3:47 - George Pickens Round 2 Value & Rashee Rice Rankings Drop
5:49 - RB Tier Break: Breece, Kyren, ETN & Bucky vs. the Rest
8:19 - Denzel Boston SLAP Model Breakdown & Prospect Eval
22:08 - Ideal Roster Construction: 3-7-7-3 Build
24:22 - Henderson Year 2 Outlook & Pass Protection Deep Dive
28:52 - Kaelon Black Combine Athletic Profile & SLAP Score Inputs
36:03 - Draft #1 Roster Recap & Roast of Opponent's Team
44:36 - Jayden Ott: Oklahoma Misuse & Combine Sleeper Case
49:13 - Draft #2 Starts (Fast Draft) — RB-Heavy Boomer Build
1:02:01 - Slow Draft Combine Timing Strategy & Three-QB Meta
1:07:54 - Draft Capital as #1 Predictor of Rookie Fantasy Points
1:17:27 - Tre Tucker Target Earning Problems (62nd in TPRR)
1:25:09 - Draft #4 Starts (Pick 2) — Puka Nacua
1:38:11 - Tyreek Hill News: Andy Reid Says "Nothing Happening"
1:39:01 - Chiefs Drafting Jeremiah Love Debate & Roster Needs
1:52:35 - Terrence Ferguson SLAP Score Reveal — Surprisingly High
1:59:19 - Draft #4 Final Roster Recap & Outro

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Big Board + FAST Draft Feb 19, 2026

Show notes

0:00 - Intro & Draft #1 Starts (Pick 3): Puka Nacua 5:05 - Rashi Rice Suspension Risk Breakdown 16:53 - Tyreek Hill Back to Kansas City & Knee Surgery Concerns 18:41 - Xavier Worthy & Chiefs Roster Needs 24:35 - Should the Chiefs Draft a Running Back at 9? 28:04 - Eight-Man Box Myth & Modern Defensive Alignments 32:19 - Fast Draft Fires: CeeDee Lamb & Trey McBride Start 35:00 - Garrett Wilson in the Fourth Round Discussion 46:28 - Braylon Allen SLAP Model Breakdown 48:22 - Draft #1 Final Team Recap 50:01 - Draft #3 Starts (Pick 6): Big Board Arena 51:50 - Raiders Releasing Geno Smith — Mendoza Era Begins 57:35 - Fantasy Football Analyst Mount Rushmore 1:03:13 - Harold Fannin Jr. & Eli Stowers TE Fascination 1:17:00 - Draft #4 Starts: Ja'Marr Chase Build 1:25:04 - Cooper Kupp Old Man WR Value Debate 1:32:57 - Drake London Doesn't Feel Like a WR1 1:34:34 - Buying the Suspension Dip: Historical Track Record 1:39:06 - Kenyon Sadiq Best NFL Landing Spots 1:51:42 - Abandoning the 8.3% Exposure Strategy 1:58:03 - DeMond Claiborne: Day 3 RB Sleeper Love

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Best Ball Drafts Take No Breaks Feb 16, 2026

Show notes

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MY FIRST DRAFT OF THE YEAR WITH FLOCK FANTASY (Emotional) Feb 12, 2026

Show notes

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