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Corn/Soybeans/Wheat - Which Chart Looks BULLISH??? with Brian Splitt Nov 13, 2026

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🌱 Soybean futures fell sharply Thursday, with Jan27 beans losing nearly 12 cents to close at $12.19/bu on profit-taking, technical selling and a stronger US dollar. 🇧🇷 Good weather for early crop development in Brazil added to the pressure.
🌽 Corn futures fell for a second straight session, with Dec26 corn down about 6 cents to close near $4.42/bu. 📉 A firmer dollar and favorable South American weather weighed on prices. Wheat also posted double-digit losses despite worries about Black Sea shipments, and grains bounced back overnight.
📉 Corteva shares fell about 24% Thursday, the steepest one-day drop in the company’s history, after it warned that tough conditions in Brazil will last through year-end. 💸 Brazilian farmers are squeezed by high interest rates and input costs, and Corteva expects excess product in distribution channels to cut 2026 core profit by $100 million.
⛽ US ethanol output slipped 1.1% to 1.13mil barrels per day but was still a seasonal high, up 5.1% from a year ago. 🛢️ Stocks are at a record weekly high of 24.35mil barrels, and Reuters data shows Corn Belt margins positive at 35 to 50 cents per gallon.
🇨🇳 USDA announced another flash sale on Thursday: 136,000mt (5mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. 🚢 Total soybean sales are running 76% ahead of last year’s pace.
🏜️ The latest drought monitor shows 29% of the Corn Belt in drought, down from 35% a year ago. Rain helped Minnesota, Kentucky and southeastern Indiana, while dryness got worse in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and Illinois. 🌾 Nationally, drought covers 21% of corn areas, 29% of soybean areas, 48% of winter wheat areas, 33% of spring wheat areas and 35% of cattle areas.

Too Wet in Southern Brazil?? How Would Soybeans React to Weather Problem?? Nov 12, 2026

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🌎 Brazil Weather: Brazil’s soybean areas remain in good shape, with slightly below-normal rain in the north and above-normal rain in the south. This morning’s forecast calls for adequate moisture nearly everywhere, though excessive rain could become a concern in southern states. 🌧️
📈 Markets: Soybeans extended gains on Wednesday, with Jan27 futures closing near $12.31 after the USDA’s bullish crop report. Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $4.48 on profit-taking and export concerns, while wheat finally caught a break on skepticism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌽🌾
🇨🇳 China Buys Wheat: China’s Cofco booked at least 120,000mt of French wheat, the largest shipment from France since 2024, plus an undisclosed amount of Argentine wheat. The purchases come as falling Chicago futures erase much of the Black Sea war-risk premium, though no US wheat sales have been confirmed. 🚢
🕊️ Russia-Ukraine Talks: Wednesday’s peace talks ended without a ceasefire or progress on reopening safe Black Sea shipping, though a large prisoner exchange is being discussed. With exports constrained, IKAR estimates about 20mmt of Russian grain will need to be stored in polyethylene grain bags. 🛑
🇮🇷 Iran Diplomacy: Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a senior Iranian security official, but no meeting date has been set. Tehran’s demands to lift the naval blockade, release frozen assets, and ease sanctions remain major hurdles, while Strait of Hormuz oil flows stay well below prewar levels. 🛢️
🪰 Screwworm Update: New World screwworm cases are climbing across the Southwest as cooler, humid weather favors the pest, with nearly 130 confirmed cases in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. The USDA says strict inspections make infected imports unlikely and plans to keep Mexican cattle ports open as long as safeguards hold. 🐄

Grain Prices SURGE on EVIL Report from "Crooked" USDA Nov 11, 2026

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📊 USDA Report: The USDA cut its US corn yield to 179.6 bpa and production to 15.893 billion bushels, both below trade estimates. Soybean yield and production were raised to 53.3 bpa and 4.574 billion bushels but still fell short of expectations, and US ending stocks for both crops came in lower than anticipated.
🌽 Market Reaction: Jan27 soybeans surged nearly 40 cents to settle at $12.28, driven by the yield miss and a stronger export forecast. Dec26 corn gained about 10 cents to $4.49, and wheat followed higher on spillover support.
🕊️ Russia–Ukraine Talks: Russia and Ukraine resumed US-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi for the first time in nine months, focusing on humanitarian issues, prisoner swaps, and security guarantees. Zelenskyy named restoring Black Sea grain shipments as a key goal, but it wasn’t addressed on Tuesday, and talks continue today.
💵 Inflation & the Fed: October CPI rose 0.4%, beating the expected 0.3% for the third straight hotter-than-expected month, with gasoline and food prices both climbing. Fed Governor Waller called for a December rate hike, and markets now fully price in a quarter-point increase, with half-point odds near 14%.
🚢 Flash Sales: US exporters sold 312,700mt (12 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 150,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Mexico for the same marketing year.

Report Day! Will USDA Screw Farmers AGAIN?? Nov 10, 2026

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📊 USDA WASDE Report Today: The USDA releases its November Crop Production and WASDE report at 11:00am CST, with traders expecting lower corn yield and production estimates, though the crop would still be the second largest on record. Soybean production is expected to edge higher toward a record harvest, while global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are all forecast to rise.
🔮 2027/28 Baseline Projections: USDA’s early long-term baseline shows farmers shifting acres away from corn (95.5M) and toward soybeans (87.5M) and wheat (44M) next season. Corn yield is pegged at 184 bpa, with ending stocks projected at 1.82B bushels for corn, 300M for soybeans, and 748M for wheat.
🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest reached 81% complete, trailing both the five-year average of 86% and trade expectations, with notable delays in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. Soybean harvest hit 92%, slightly ahead of average, while winter wheat planting reached 89% with good-to-excellent ratings improving to 49%.
📉 Futures Recap: December corn fell to a four-month low near $4.39, as a still-massive crop outweighed expectations for a lower USDA yield estimate. January soybeans dropped nearly 6 cents to $11.88 on record crop expectations and strong Brazil planting, while wheat slid on ample global supplies and hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace progress.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update: AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean crop is 64% planted, ahead of last year’s 61% pace, with fewer challenges than expected for an El Niño year. Concerns linger over dryness in central Brazil and excessive rain in the south, while first-crop corn planting reached 71%.
🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections totaled 1.9mmt (70M bushels), down 25% week-over-week, but year-to-date shipments are running 58% ahead of last year with China taking about 67%. Corn shipments reached 905,267mt (36M bushels), while wheat disappointed again at 248,536mt, leaving year-to-date totals 36% behind last year.
🌽 Flash Sale to Mexico: USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000mt (4M bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2026/27 marketing year. Despite the sale, accumulated corn sales remain down 34% from last year.
🐄 Beef Industry News: Tyson Foods is partnering with Allied Beef to restart a second shift at its Amarillo, TX plant by summer 2027, likely reflecting improving cattle supplies in the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, JBS missed Q3 earnings expectations with $1.18B in adjusted earnings, though it sees its US beef business recovering in 2027.

USDA to Use AI in Crop Reports + US/China Truce Extended Nov 09, 2026

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🤖 USDA Turns to AI: USDA is rolling out a new AI tool in tomorrow’s November Crop Production report as an extra safeguard to catch errors, following September’s corn miscalculations. The move comes as confidence in USDA data has slipped amid reporting inconsistencies and staff cuts across the agency.
🇨🇳 China Extends Tariff Truce: Beijing will hold off on an additional 24% tariff on US goods for two more months while keeping its 10% blanket tariff in place, and port fees on US ships are delayed until January 10. Trump and Xi are set to meet later this month at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, with ag purchases and rare earths high on the agenda.
📊 WASDE Preview: USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Tuesday at 11:00am CST, with traders expecting lower corn yield and production but still the second-largest crop on record. Soybeans are expected to edge higher toward a record harvest, while global corn, soybean, and wheat stocks are all forecast to rise.
⛽ Harvest Fuel Relief Program: USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program has an October 16 acreage reporting cutoff, which passed three days before the program was even announced. Paul Neiffer recommends reviewing your FSA-578 reports and checking with your county FSA office, especially if you picked up land late or operate a new entity.
💰 Fund Positioning: Large money managers sold 72k corn, 51k soybean, and 13k SRW wheat contracts for the week ending November 3. The funds’ corn net long is now the smallest since early July, while their SRW wheat net short is the largest since late January.
📈 Friday’s Markets: Soybeans bounced about 6 cents to near $11.94 on short covering after a week of steep losses, and Dec26 corn added roughly 2 cents to near $4.42. Wheat kept sliding to its lowest level since February as Russia-Ukraine peace talks raise hopes for improved Black Sea shipments.
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported a sale of 101,000mt (4 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year.

China Buys US Wheat/Sorghum + Tech Stocks Crash on Data Center Fears Nov 06, 2026

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🇨🇳🌾 Chinese buyers signed $600 million in US sorghum and wheat purchase agreements with Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. The deals come as China lags far behind its $17 billion annual commitment for US farm goods beyond soybeans, buying just $7.2 billion through September.
📉💻 The stock market plunged Thursday as a massive tech and AI selloff pushed the Nasdaq down 5.5% and into correction territory, while the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow dropped 3.4%. Investors worried that Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories could bring tighter AI regulations, erasing Wednesday’s strong postelection rally.
🏦📈 Treasuries rallied as investors fled to safe-haven assets, sending yields down as much as 12 basis points to their lowest levels since early September. Traders are now scaling back expectations for more Fed rate hikes, with some positioning for no change in December.
🫘🌽 Soybean futures extended their losing streak to nine straight sessions, with the Jan27 contract falling 14 cents to $11.88 on expectations of a record-large US crop. Corn also slipped on big-crop expectations, while wheat edged higher on technical buying despite Russia-Ukraine peace deal optimism.
🚢📦 US soybean export sales fell 44% week over week to 1.5 MMT, though China was the top buyer, and accumulated sales are up an impressive 76% from last year. Corn sales held steady at 1.3 MMT, with Mexico leading, while wheat sales dropped 37% to 538,000 MT, with the Philippines as the top buyer.
☀️🏜️ USDA’s latest drought monitor showed worsening conditions in northern Indiana, southern Illinois, and Missouri, while Minnesota and the High Plains saw improvement. About 31% of the Corn Belt is in drought, down from 35% a year ago, and the dry weather has been ideal for harvest.

Is China Backing Out?? Tough Talk on US Ag Purchases Following Blue Wave Election Nov 05, 2026

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🇨🇳 China says it’s open to buying more US farm goods, but only once the “$30 billion-for-$30 billion” tariff-cut deal is implemented. Beijing’s non-soybean ag purchases hit just $7.2 billion through September, the lowest for that period since 2019. 🤝🌾
🛢️ WTI crude plunged 8.3% to $88.12, its lowest close since late August, on hopes for a US-Iran deal after Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Some analysts warn the selloff may be overdone, since neither side looks ready to make major concessions. 📉⚔️
🌱 January soybeans fell nearly 12 cents to about $12.02, the lowest since mid-August, pressured by weaker crude and expectations for a massive US crop. December corn bounced 2 cents to $4.44 on oversold conditions, while wheat slipped on hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌽🌾
🚜 John Deere will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, factories and move sugar cane harvester production from Louisiana to Brazil. The restructuring comes just a week after Deere announced recalls and new hiring across several Midwest plants. 🏭🔄
🏛️ The USDA and CFTC signed an MOU to strengthen oversight, share information, and expand risk management tools for farmers and ranchers. It follows the CFTC’s plan to publish Commitments of Traders reports twice a week starting in December. 📊🤠
⛽ US ethanol production hit 1.14 million barrels per day, the second-highest level on record and up 2.2% from the prior week. Ethanol margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, now running 30 to 70 cents per gallon positive. 💪🌽
🇧🇷 Rabobank expects Brazilian soybean exports to dip to 113 MMT, with production forecast at 178 MMT amid rising costs, tight margins, and El Niño concerns. That’s well below the USDA’s forecast of a record 186 MMT Brazilian crop. 🌦️💸
🇪🇸 USDA reported a flash sale of 167,000 MT (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Spain for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated US soybean sales are now running 80% ahead of last year’s pace. 🚢📈

Democrats Sweep: Will Farmers Still Get $8B in Aid? + MONSTER Corn/Soybean Crop Estimates Nov 04, 2026

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🗳️ Midterm Results: Democrats are projected to take control of both the House and Senate, flipping Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, plus governor’s races in Ohio and Texas. 📊 Grain markets are quiet this morning while stocks trade higher, and the recent $8 billion farmer relief package is safe since it was approved through the CCC without needing Congress. 💵
🌽 StoneX Crop Forecast: StoneX raised its 2026 corn yield to 183.1 bpa (above USDA’s 181.2), pushing total production to 16.20 billion bushels, with Iowa leading at 216 bpa. 🫘 Soybean yield was bumped to 55.0 bpa vs. USDA’s 53.1, putting production at 4.73 billion bushels, led by Illinois at 68 bpa. 📈
🏥 ACA Premiums: Obamacare marketplace premiums are expected to climb 13% in 2027 after a 26% jump this year, ranging from 3% in Vermont to 28% in Arizona. ⚠️ The expiration of enhanced tax credits means those earning over 400% of the federal poverty level now pay full price for coverage. 💸
📉 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn fell about 6¢ to ~$4.43/bu, its lowest close since early July, as export sales run 34% behind last year’s pace. 🫘 Jan27 soybeans slipped 3¢ to $12.14/bu on big-crop expectations, while wheat also closed lower despite optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌾
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported 315,000mt of corn sold to Mexico and 136,000mt to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. 📦 Exporters also sold 134,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. 🌍
🏭 ADM Earnings: ADM raised its profit outlook for the third straight quarter, with crushing profits soaring to $311 million from just $13 million a year ago. ⛽ The US-Iran war boosted crude prices and biofuel demand, and ADM now expects a ~$350 million benefit from the 45Z tax credit. 💰
👨‍🌾 Farmer Sentiment: The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer rose to 126 in October, though only 62% of farmers report a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. 📉 Just 35% believe higher tariffs will strengthen the ag economy, down from 58% a year ago. 🇺🇸

Did Trump FIX Soybeans?? Record Demand Projected, China Is Buying Nov 03, 2026

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🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections stayed strong at 2.4mmt (90 mil bu), with year-to-date totals running 56% ahead of last year and China taking about 63% of the week’s volume. 📉 Corn rose 39% week-over-week to 884,766mt, while wheat posted an all-time record weekly low of just 75,413mt, down 61% from the prior week.
💰 Flash Sales: Mexico bought 1.7mmt (68 mil bu) of US corn, split between 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. 🇨🇳 Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery.
🛢️ China’s Soybean Oil Glut: China’s soybean oil stocks climbed to a record near 1.5 million tons as crushing outpaces sluggish demand, pushing exports to more than triple from a year ago. 🤝 China’s lead trade negotiator also met with a US ag delegation Monday, as Chinese purchases of non-soybean US farm goods head toward a seven-year low.
📊 Futures Recap: Jan soybeans dropped roughly 18¢ to $12.17/bu, their lowest close since mid-August, on falling crude, fund liquidation and strong yields. 🌽 Dec corn edged up a penny to $4.48/bu despite harvest pressure, and wheat closed slightly higher as Russia-Ukraine attacks dimmed hopes for a Black Sea shipping deal.
🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest jumped to 74% complete, just behind the 77% average, with delays persisting in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. 🌱 Soybeans reached 88% done (ahead of the 84% average), while winter wheat planting hit 83%, short of the 86% traders expected.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting: AgRural says Brazil’s soybean crop is 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% despite wet conditions in the south and dryness in the north. 🌽 Brazil’s first corn crop is 63% planted, also ahead of last year’s 59% pace.

Money Managers Have Sold 1.7 BILLION Bushels of Corn in 6 Weeks - Prices Plunge Nov 02, 2026

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📊 Fund Positioning: Large money managers were net sellers of 83k corn contracts for the week ending October 27, bringing their total reduction since the mid-September peak to 333k contracts. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 23k SRW wheat contracts.
🌽 Weekly Grain Recap: Dec26 corn fell nearly 4 cents to about $4.48, its fifth straight weekly loss, on fund liquidation and harvest progress. Jan27 soybeans slipped to about $12.34, the lowest close since mid-August, while wheat posted a ninth consecutive weekly loss on expectations of more Russian exports. 📉
🇺🇦 Ukraine-Russia & Black Sea: Ukraine ended a two-week pause and struck a refinery in Russia’s Samara region, despite pressure from the Trump administration to stop. The escalation follows Russia issuing permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov, and Secretary of State Rubio cited “growing interest” in a partial Black Sea ceasefire. 🚢
🛢️ Crude Oil: Dec26 WTI dropped below $100/bbl overnight after peaking near $105 Friday, as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks in Doha on ending the US-Iran war. Some analysts still see upside risk, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays well below 2025 levels. ⛽
🫘 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a flash sale of 297,150 mt (11 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated soybean sales are running 80% ahead of the same period last year. 📈
💻 Binance Hack: Binance resumed withdrawals Sunday after a record $6.3 billion theft blamed on a North Korean state-sponsored hacking group. The exchange says about 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished, but the incident sparked heavy withdrawals and a broader crypto sell-off. 🔐

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