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Corn Prices TANK Following "No News" Trump/Xi Meeting Sep 25, 2026

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🤝 US-China Talks: Xi Jinping and President Trump met in Washington, but the meeting produced no major breakthroughs on tariffs, AI, or ag trade. Hopes for China dropping its 10% retaliatory soybean tariff or new details on its $17 billion ag purchase commitment went unmet, and grains are trading lower. 📉
🚢 Black Sea Shipping: Zelenskiy says India, Turkey, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern nations are joining talks to reopen Black Sea shipping, which has been near a standstill since July. Wheat futures slipped on the news as top buyers like Egypt and Indonesia shift purchases to France, Argentina, and Australia. 🌾
🌧️ Drought Monitor: Heavy rains improved drought conditions across much of the northern Corn Belt, though southern Missouri got drier. The High Plains saw some relief too, but winter wheat areas remain 58% in drought. 🏜️
📦 Export Sales: Soybean sales disappointed at just 21 million bushels, down 66% from the prior week, with China as the top buyer. Corn came in at 33 million bushels and wheat at 10 million, both below expectations. 📊
🇨🇳 Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 120,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. It's a small but welcome sign of continued Chinese buying. 🫘
⛽ Diesel Exports: The Trump administration is exploring limits on diesel exports to bring down prices, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright sounding out refiners. The industry is pushing back hard, warning restrictions could force refiners to cut production of all fuels. 🏭
🛢️ US-Iran & Hormuz: The US and Iran are weighing a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Iran's conditions are met. News of the potential agreement pushed WTI crude down about 1.7% to around $93 per barrel. 💰

Bessent Says US/China Extend Trade Truce - Corn Purchases Next?? Sep 24, 2026

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🤝 The US and China agreed to extend their trade-war truce by two months to January 10, giving both sides more time to reach a broader deal. 🇨🇳 Treasury Secretary Bessent said this week's Trump-Xi meeting could bring announcements on ag purchases, along with a plan to set aside $30 billion each in US and Chinese exports for tariff relief.
🌽 Grain and oilseed prices slipped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit, with Dec26 corn dropping nearly 8 cents and Dec26 HRW wheat hitting its lowest trade since late August. 🫘 China is likely more than halfway to its 25 million-ton US soybean pledge, but its separate $17 billion ag purchase commitment has largely stalled.
⛽ The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports as the national average hits $6.52 per gallon, up $2.83 from last year. ⚠️ Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the plan, and critics warn a ban could force refiners to cut output and drive fuel prices even higher.
🚜 Some farmers are locking in diesel prices through year-end, with some expecting another $1 to $2 per gallon jump if the US-Iran war drags on. 💸 Higher fuel costs could also push fertilizer up another $100 to $200 per ton, prompting early spring fertilizer purchases.
🌾 Chicago wheat futures have surged 40% from June lows to a 3.5-year high as the Russia-Ukraine war brings Black Sea shipments to a near standstill. 🚢 Buyers are turning to Australia and Argentina, paying roughly 25% more than they did for Black Sea wheat.
💵 The US dollar climbed to its highest level since late July as markets bet on more Fed rate hikes. 📈 Money markets are pricing in a 55% chance of another quarter-point hike in October, with Brent crude back above $100 per barrel.
🏭 US ethanol production fell to a 20-week low of 1.028 million barrels per day, down 6.5% from the prior week. 📊 Stocks dipped to a 6-week low but remain a record for the week at 24.68 million barrels, while Corn Belt margins stay strong.

Trump Supports Diesel Export Ban + Western Corn Belt Harvest Delays Sep 23, 2026

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🌽 Iowa's corn and soybean harvests are running well behind schedule, with just 4% of corn and 2% of soybeans harvested after persistent rain left farmers only two days suitable for fieldwork last week. 🌧️ The state averaged 3.6 inches of rain last week, and more is on the way, with the heaviest amounts forecast for western Iowa.
📉 Corn futures slipped about 6 cents to near $5.37 and soybeans fell about 3 cents to near $13.26 as traders awaited this week's Trump-Xi meeting and eyed drier forecasts that could speed up harvest. 🌾 Wheat also finished lower on hopes that a Russia-Ukraine truce could reopen Black Sea shipping.
🛢️ WTI crude fell 1.2% to $94.99 for its fifth straight daily decline, but fuel prices keep climbing, with gasoline at $4.48 and diesel hitting a record $6.53 per gallon. 🚫 President Trump voiced support for banning US diesel exports, though critics warn the move could disrupt supply chains and actually push pump prices higher.
🌱 A London-based think tank projects global biofuel production could jump roughly 70% by 2030, led by the US, Brazil, and Indonesia as countries raise blending mandates amid the energy crisis. 🌍 If all proposed mandates are implemented, feedstock production could require an additional 89 million acres, roughly the size of Germany.
📊 Kalshi has asked the CFTC for approval to offer leverage on its prediction-market event contracts in a bid to attract more institutional traders. ⚖️ Rival Polymarket is pursuing similar approval, while Kalshi plans to limit leveraged contracts to qualified self-clearing members if approved.

Corn Jumps on Possible China Interest + Diesel Export Ban and E15 in California Sep 22, 2026

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Monday, with Dec26 gaining ~16¢ to close at $5.43/bu. The move was driven by hopes for stronger Chinese demand and rain slowing Corn Belt harvest.
🌱 Soybeans jumped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with Nov26 up ~25¢ to $13.28/bu. Traders are betting the talks could lead China to drop its 10% tariff and let private buyers start purchasing again.
🌾 Wheat also closed higher as Russia and Ukraine traded drone strikes, cooling hopes for a de-escalation. US-China trade talks wrapped their second day Monday ahead of the big Trump-Xi sit-down.
🚜 Crop conditions held steady while harvest progress sped up nationwide. Corn crop rated 57% good/excellent (harvest 13% done) and soybeans held at 58% good/excellent (harvest 12% done), with winter wheat planting at 17%.
⛽ Diesel prices hit a record $6.51/gal, sparking calls from farm-state Republicans for an export ban. The White House says it's not considering restrictions yet, even as Ag Secretary Rollins hints at a fuel-cost relief plan soon.
🚗 California finally cleared the path for E15 sales after Gov. Newsom signed new legislation. The move could save drivers billions and add ~650 million gallons of annual ethanol demand in the state.
🚢 Russia is shifting grain exports to Baltic and Arctic ports as Black Sea shipping stays restricted. Exports were down 31% July-August y/y, even as USDA expects only a modest hit to Russia's overall grain trade.
📦 US corn and soybean export inspections came in strong last week, beating expectations and last year's pace. China made up 59% of corn inspections, while wheat shipments lagged, down 64% vs. the same week last year.

How Have SURGING Diesel Prices Impacted Corn Growers? (It's not Good) Sep 21, 2026

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⛽ Diesel Prices – National average diesel hit a record $6.51/gal on Sunday, up 76% year-over-year, with off-road diesel nearing $6.00/gal in many areas. Fuel costs are adding $11/acre to corn and $7/acre to soybean budgets, and USDA Secretary Rollins hints at coming relief announcements. 💸
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Meeting – Trump and Xi meet in Washington Thursday to tackle AI, trade, Taiwan, and the Iran war, with ag trade a key focus. China has crossed the halfway mark on its 25mmt soybean commitment, and weekend talks between Bessent and Li Chenggang were called "very successful." 🤝
🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall – Heavy rain soaked eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois over the weekend, with some spots topping 4 inches and flash-flooding concerns Sunday morning. Saturated fields could delay harvest, though a drier week is expected ahead. 🌽
📉 Grain Markets – Soybeans dropped ~16 cents Friday to $13.04, pressured by profit-taking, weaker crude, and advancing harvest, while corn slid 3 cents to $5.28. Wheat also finished lower as traders eye a possible Black Sea de-escalation and this week's Trump-Xi summit. 📊
💰 CFTC Fund Positioning – Managed money's corn net-long hit a fresh record at 414,460 contracts, edging out last week's mark by a single contract. Funds trimmed soybean longs by 16k (still 2nd-largest on record) and sold 9k SRW wheat contracts. 📈
🚢 Soybean Flash Sale – USDA confirmed a fresh flash sale of 111,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It's another sign of steady, if incremental, progress toward China's purchase commitment. 🌱
🐄 Cattle on Feed – September 1 inventory rose 1% YOY to 11.16 million head, while August placements fell to a record-low 1.62 million and marketings hit a record-low 1.52 million. The report looks bullish on the surface, but shrinking marketings raise questions about the cattle pipeline down the road — though the market's real focus stays on Thursday's Santa Teresa port reopening for Mexican feeder cattle. 🥩

Trump-Xi Meeting: Cancelation Rumors, Soybeans Lower Sep 18, 2026

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🫘 Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. 📈 Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping.
⚔️ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a diplomatic path, with a Tuesday meeting set with six Gulf nations to map out next steps. ⛽ Meanwhile diesel hit a record $6.45/gal and gasoline jumped to $4.47/gal, ramping up inflationary and political pressure.
📉 US corn export sales fell 47% week-over-week to 1mmt, with Mexico the top buyer. 🇨🇳 Soybean sales dropped 35% to 1.7mmt with China leading purchases, while wheat sales rose 68% to 325,900mt on demand from the Philippines.
🌧️ USDA's drought monitor showed improvement in parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains after heavy rain, with total drought coverage now at 25% vs. 37% a year ago. 🐄 Winter wheat (57%) and cattle (58%) remain the most drought-stressed categories.
🇲🇽 The Santa Teresa port will reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports on September 24, becoming the second border crossing to resume after nearly two years of screwworm-related closures. 🐮 Imports will start slow at ~750 head/day, adding to the roughly 6,000 head already processed since Douglas, AZ reopened in August.

US Harvest Delays?? + Trump HATES the Fed Rate Hike Sep 17, 2026

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🌧️ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
💰 The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Energy prices from the US-Iran war and inflation at 3.4% are keeping pressure on for possibly another hike this year.
🌱 Soybeans ticked up ahead of US-China trade talks, with the Nov26 contract near $13.21 as traders eye stronger Chinese purchases. Corn slipped slightly to $5.34 on the Dec26 contract, while wheat finished modestly higher.
⛽ Russia looks set to extend its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian drone strikes keep hammering refining capacity. US diesel prices hit a record $6.31/gallon as the global market feels the squeeze.
🌾 Black Sea attacks are forcing Russia to reroute wheat exports through pricier, less efficient Baltic and Far East channels. Despite the disruption, USDA still expects Russia to remain the world's top wheat exporter this year.
🏭 US ethanol production held steady at 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4.2% year-over-year. Stocks climbed to a 19-week high while margins across the Corn Belt stayed mostly positive.

Meal Leads Soybean Higher + Diesel Export BAN?? Sep 16, 2026

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🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉
📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. 🌽🌾 Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation.
⛽ Diesel Export Ban Talk – Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. 🚛 Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Tariff Talks – The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. 🤝 Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies.
🌧️ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays – Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). ❄️ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses.
💹 Treasury Yields Spike – The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. 🏦 AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

BOOMING Soybean Demand: New Wisc Crush Plant + China Keeps Buying Sep 15, 2026

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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.
🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. 🤝 The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally.
🌾 Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. 📈 Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices.
🚂 Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. ⛽ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis.
🌽 Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. 🫘 Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. 🌽 First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year.
🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. 📦 Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.

Funds are Record-Long Grains, But Rake Hikes are Coming Sep 14, 2026

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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.
🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. 📈 Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.
💰 Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). 📊 Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts.
🎲 Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. ⛽ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week.
🌎 Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. 🌾 Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.

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