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From July 15th to the 18th, the Chinese Communist Party is holding a gathering known as the Third Plenum. This is a highly anticipated political event, as Xi Jinping and party officials are expected to announce key economic reforms intended to spur the Chinese economy. For the past several years, especially since COVID, the Chinese economy has been lagging. According to my guest today, Anja Manuel, executive director of the Aspen Security Group, this is largely because Xi has prioritized regime security over economic growth.
We kick off by discussing what the Third Plenum is and have a broad conversation about the economic and political context in which this meeting is occurring. We also discuss the broader geopolitical implications of a slowing Chinese economy and what that means for competition between the US and China.
Finally, Anja Manuel previews the Aspen Security Forum, which kicks off on July 16th. This is a significant foreign policy and national security gathering that I've had the pleasure of attending for the past few years.
A rather bizarre incident recently occurred in the South China Sea off the coast of the Philippines. On June 17th, the Chinese Coast Guard clashed with Philippine naval vessels en route to resupplying a stranded Philippine ship on a formation known as the Second Thomas Shoal. This desolate shoal is very much in the territorial waters of the Philippines, but China nonetheless claims it as Chinese sovereign territory. The Chinese have routinely harassed Philippine ships in the area, but on June 17th, the Chinese Coast Guard attacked the Philippine naval vessels with water cannons, swords, and axes in the most violent incident of its kind in years. This kind of escalation risks drawing in the United States due to the longstanding Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Philippines, which obliges the US to come to the defense of the Philippines. This has the potential to draw the US and China into direct conflict.
My guest today is Prashanth Parameswaran, founder of the ASEAN Wonk newsletter and fellow at the Wilson Center. We kick off by discussing what exactly happened during the June 17th incident before having a broader conversation about the dynamics in which this territorial dispute in the South China Sea draws the US and China closer to conflict--and how to escape that trap.
On June 27th, a group of food security experts from the United Nations and major international relief agencies known as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) released devastating new data on hunger in Sudan. Their data shows that over 755,000 people are experiencing catastrophic levels of food insecurity. This means that there are almost no coping mechanisms left, and people are starving to death. Those experiencing this extreme level of food insecurity are spread throughout several regions; it is not localized to just one part of the country.
The cause is conflict. In April last year, a full-scale civil war erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The food system in the country, including farmlands and trading routes, has been destroyed. Meanwhile, international humanitarian relief is being obstructed by the warring parties and not reaching people in need in sufficient numbers.
My guest today, Dr. Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, is a Research Fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). He recently conducted a large wartime household survey of food security in every region of Sudan. We discuss his findings in detail, as well as what can be done to reverse the massive food crisis gripping the country. The war does not look like it will end anytime soon, so in the midst of conflict, what can be done to limit deaths from starvation and widespread hunger?
On Tuesday, June 25, Kenyan protesters stormed parliament in Nairobi in scenes reminiscent of the January 6 siege of the U.S. Capitol. However, unlike January 6, police responded violently, and at least six people were killed. The protests had been ongoing for days as the Kenyan parliament moved on a finance bill that would increase taxes for ordinary Kenyans in unusual ways. Like many countries in Africa, the government of Kenya faces an extreme level of debt and was looking for new sources of revenue to service its debt payments while also keeping the government functioning. Following the protests, President William Ruto said he would no longer pursue this taxation bill.
While protests in Kenya are hardly unusual, what makes this protest movement so unique, according to my guest today, Brian Obara, is that it was not organized along ethnic, tribal, or even class divides. Rather, it was youth-led and broad-based -- and that could signal a profound change in Kenyan politics. Brian Obara is a Kenyan lawyer, media professional, and columnist for The Star, a daily newspaper in Nairobi. We kick off by discussing what was in this ill-fated Finance Bill that so agitated Kenyans. We then discuss what transpired in the protests and what this episode suggests for the future of politics in Kenya.
The situation in Southern Lebanon is extremely precarious. Israel is positioning more and more military assets along its northern border, while Hezbollah continues its near-daily attacks on Israeli targets from Lebanon and has threatened an all-out war. Caught in the middle are about 10,000 United Nations peacekeepers.
The United Nations Interim Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has more peacekeepers deployed per square kilometer than any other UN peacekeeping mission in the world. These peacekeepers have helped avert an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in the past, but tensions are very high right now. If conflict is averted, it may be due to the off-ramp to continued escalation between Hezbollah and Israel that UNIFIL provides. On the other hand, if Israel and Hezbollah decide to escalate, there's little these peacekeepers can do to stop them.
The lead segment of our second episode of To Save Us From Hell explains the role of UNIFIL in managing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since 2006 and why some diplomats are considering expanding UNIFIL to prevent a new devastating war in the region. On the flipside, we also discuss what would happen to these 10,000 Blue Helmets if they get caught in the middle of a war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Our second segment focuses on a summit this week between Taliban officials and representatives of about 30 governments and international institutions, convened in Doha under UN auspices. This meeting is somewhat controversial and has earned reprobation in some circles for the fact that no Afghan women will be represented.
Finally, we share an excerpt of our interview with Courtney Fung, an academic who studies Chinese diplomacy and its approach to the United Nations. This is a 15-minute excerpt of our full 40-minute interview that is available to our paying supporters. The interview covers China's evolving relationship to the UN, including how the policies and strategies it pursues are changing as it becomes a more robust global power.
To Save Us From Hell is listener-powered. Please support our work through your paid subscription: https://www.globaldispatches.org/SaveUs
Since 2019, Burkina Faso has been in a state of near-constant conflict. Extremist groups control or occupy large swaths of the country—about 40-50% according to some estimates. Meanwhile, the government is extremely unstable and has been toppled by a succession of military coups. The military government in power today is generally hostile to the same Western powers that have historically supported the people of Burkina Faso with humanitarian and development assistance.
My guest today, Jan Egeland, is the president of the Norwegian Refugee Council, a large international humanitarian NGO. Each year, the NRC publishes a list of what it considers the most neglected humanitarian emergencies on the planet, and this year, the crisis in Burkina Faso tops the list. Jan Egeland recently returned from Burkina Faso, and in our conversation, he explains why the humanitarian crisis there is so challenging and what can be done to make Burkina Faso less neglected by the international community.
This is the debut of "To Save Us From Hell," our new weekly chat show about the United Nations. "To Save Us From Hell" is a project of Global Dispatches and features weekly conversations between co-hosts Mark Leon Goldberg and Anjali Dayal about the latest news and happenings around the United Nations. They discuss the implications of Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea for the UN, recent progress on Gaza and Sudan at the Security Council, and who should replace the outgoing top UN humanitarian official, Martin Griffiths.
To Save Us From Hell is a project of Global Dispatches and is supported entirely through the paid subscriptions of our supporters. You can access a discounted subscription here: https://www.globaldispatches.org/SaveUs
To Save Us From Hell is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and everywhere you get your podcasts. Go here to learn more: https://www.globaldispatches.org/s/to-save-us-from-hell
Elections for the European Parliament saw sweeping gains for far-right parties in Germany and France. It was in France that these election results led to the surprising—and very daring—decision by Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections. The first round of these legislative elections will be held on June 30th.
Macron is facing a challenge from the far-right National Rally, a party that used to be known as the National Front, which was founded by the Nazi-adjacent Jean-Marie Le Pen and is now led by his daughter, Marine Le Pen. These elections could lead to the far right winning enough seats in the French parliament to lead the government.
On the line to discuss the European Parliament elections in general and the results in France is Art Goldhammer, a senior affiliate at the Center for European Studies at Harvard. He explains the political dynamics leading up to these snap elections, and we have a long conversation about the implications for Europe should France be led by the hard-right National Rally.
India's election was supposed to be a coronation for Narendra Modi. Instead, he got a comeuppance. India is, of course, the world's largest democracy, and after a nearly month-long election season, the final results were declared in early June. Narendra Modi and his political party, the BJP, fared much worse than expected. They secured far fewer seats in the Lok Sabha, the parliament, than anticipated, and now Modi and the BJP will have to form a coalition government after losing an outright majority.
On the line to discuss the election results and what they mean for Indian politics and foreign policy going forward is Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute and also the deputy director of the Wilson Center's new Indo-Pacific program. As Michael Kugelman explains, the outcome of this election suggests a growing skepticism among the Indian public of Modi's brand of Hindu nationalism and the authoritarian tendencies he's embraced.
"To Save Us From Hell" is a new weekly chat show about the United Nations. Each week, two veteran UN watchers break down the latest news from the United Nations, giving our audience insights into what is driving the agenda at UN headquarters and in its operations around the world.
Co-host Mark Leon Goldberg is a veteran journalist who's the editor-in-chief of UN Dispatch and founder of Global Dispatches. He's covered the UN for nearly 20 years. Anjali Dayal is a Professor of International Relations at Fordham University who's written widely about the UN and teaches students about its intricacies. They are teaming up for this one-of-a-kind podcast that will launch in the middle of June.
For full access to the show at a discounted price, please visit GlobalDispatches.org: https://www.globaldispatches.org/SaveUs
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