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In 1991, Somaliland declared independence from Somalia, but no country has yet to accept Somaliland's sovereignty. That, however, may soon change. On January 1st, Ethiopia and Somaliland entered into a memorandum of understanding that includes Somaliland leasing a coastline and port to landlocked Ethiopia, and in return, Ethiopia would be the first country in the world to formally recognize Somaliland's independence.
When news of the MOU came to light earlier this year, it sent shockwaves throughout the Horn of Africa. Somaliland is in the north of Somalia, with a long coastline on the Gulf of Aden and bordering Ethiopia and Djibouti. It has many of the trappings of a state, including its own currency and governing institutions. It is a multiparty democracy and far more stable and less violent than Somalia. Somalia, however, still claims Somaliland—and every country in the world formally considers Somaliland to be part of Somalia. This move by Ethiopia threatens to upend this consensus of the last three decades.
Joining me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, is Guleid Ahmed Jama, a lawyer and researcher. We kick off by discussing Somaliland's unique history before having a long conversation about this Ethiopia deal and what comes next.
Every two years, since 1951, the United Nations has compiled data and estimates about the world's population. These are contained in a report called World Population Prospects, which provides our best estimates about global population and demographic trends. The latest edition of World Population Prospects was released in June, and joining me today is one of the people responsible for putting this report together.
John Wilmoth is Director of the Population Division at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. He last joined us two years ago after the previous iteration of this report was released. We will discuss what has changed, or not, from the estimates of two years ago, why we should be paying attention to rapidly aging populations in East Asia, and what we mean by the "demographic dividend" that many countries in Africa are poised to harness.
I caught up with Ndidi Okonkwo Nwuneli at the Aspen Security Forum in mid-July. She is the new President and CEO of the One Campaign, which advocates on behalf of global development, justice, and equal rights, with a particular focus on Africa. I was interested in speaking with her at a major conference dedicated to international security precisely because African security issues are often far from the top concerns of the American foreign policy community.
One of the big challenges facing many African countries today is how heavily indebted they are. Many African countries these days are spending far more money servicing debts than on their own economic and social programs. Ndidi Okonkwo Nwuneli explains that this already has international security implications and is bound to get worse unless something changes. We discussed how we can change the narrative around Africa in general and why including Africa in conversations about global security will become increasingly imperative in the future.
The July 28th national elections in Venezuela were supposed to usher in a new era of democracy after 25 years of Chavismo rule. Back in October, President Nicolas Maduro agreed to free and fair elections and, in return, had some US sanctions lifted. He quickly reneged on that deal, barred a popular opposition leader from running, and engaged in other election-related shenanigans.
Still, Venezuelans voted in massive numbers, rallying around a lesser-known opposition candidate named Edmundo Gonzalez. But hours after the polls closed, Nicolas Maduro claimed victory, a position backed up by his hand-picked national electoral body. Crucially, Venezuelan authorities have not released a full accounting of the election results, including a paper trail that Venezuela's voting systems use to verify results. This has led to widespread and credible accusations that Venezuela's election was stolen.
On the line with me from Caracas is Phil Gunson, a senior analyst for the Crisis Group. We recorded our conversation on August 1st amidst profound political uncertainty in Venezuela. He explains what happened in the lead-up to and immediate aftermath of the elections and how this situation may evolve.
Kamala Harris did not have an extensive foreign policy track record before becoming Vice President. And as Vice President, she did not assume much of a foreign policy portfolio during the Biden Administration. So what could we expect from a Kamala Harris foreign policy? How might it be the same as or different from Joe Biden's foreign policy? And if Harris becomes President, who might assume senior foreign policy roles, such as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor? Joining me to discuss these questions and more is Alexander Ward, a national security reporter who starts at the Wall Street Journal next week and author of The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump, a vital book that tells the story of the first two years of the Biden Administration's foreign policy.
We kick off by discussing what role, if any, Harris played in the two major events that Alexander Ward details in his book: the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We then discuss what sort of foreign policy vision can be deduced from Kamala Harris' time as Vice President and Senator from California.
On July 19th, the Houthis launched a drone that struck an apartment building in Tel Aviv, killing an Israeli. This was a long-range, sophisticated drone and marked the first time the Houthis successfully struck Israeli soil. Israel responded with airstrikes against the Port of Hodeida, in the Houthi-controlled part of Yemen.
The Houthis are the de facto rulers of most of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and the main port city, Hodeida. About a month into the Gaza war, the Houthis—who are part of the so-called Axis of Resistance that includes Hamas and Hezbollah—began attacking civilian commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The US has led an international mission to protect those ships in the Red Sea and deter Houthi attacks by striking targets in Yemen.
At the time, many Yemen experts, including my guest today, Alex Stark, warned that bombing the Houthis would not deter them—and would likely only embolden the group. This escalation against Israel proved her right. Alex Stark is an associate policy researcher at Rand who wrote a prescient article in Foreign Affairs some months ago titled "Don't Bomb the Houthis." In our conversation, Alex Stark explains why this attack on Israel was such an escalation, provides some broader context in which the Houthis decided to launch their Red Sea attacks, and offers perspective on how this latest escalation may evolve.
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Bangladesh is roiled in the most intense protests and domestic upheaval in decades. The protests began peacefully by students objecting to a quota system for government jobs, in which government jobs are mostly reserved for those who fought in the 1971 war for independence and their descendants. That quota system was in place for years, then it was substantially revoked only to be re-instated by Bangladesh's high court in a ruling last month. This sparked protests which turned violent when a pro-government student group attacked the protesters.
The government of Sheikh Hasina has since enacted a brutal crackdown, imposing curfews, blocking the internet, and authorizing security forces to shoot on sight anyone breaking curfew. This crackdown by Sheikh Hasina is the latest example of her turn to authoritarianism, a trend that has been accelerating in recent years.
My guest today, Ali Riaz, is a Distinguished Professor at the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University and the President of The American Institute of Bangladesh Studies. We kick off discussing the quota system and the genesis of these protests before having a long conversation about how economic stagnation after a period of rapid growth, combined with corruption and an authoritarian turn, has created the volatile situation we see in Bangladesh today.
Alsu Kurmasheva was visiting her ailing mother in Russia when she was detained by the authorities and had her passports confiscated. She is a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and her arrest immediately raised alarms that, like the Wall Street Journal's Evan Gershkovich, yet another American journalist has been targeted and wrongfully detained in Russia. However, unlike the wrongful detention of Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva's case is far less known.
My guest today is Pavel Butorin, Alsu's husband and also a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He explains what happened to Alsu and his ongoing efforts to secure her release from a Russian jail.
On May 19th, a helicopter crash in Iran killed President Ebrahim Raisi and several top government officials. This forced new presidential elections, and on July 5th, Masoud Pezeshkian defeated his more hardline opponent and is now Iran's president-elect. Pezeshkian comes from the reformist faction of Iranian politics, but real power still lies in the hands of unelected clerics, none more so than Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Still, this election will have an impact on Iran's relationship with the outside world, including the West. Joining me to explain the international implications of Masoud Pezeshkian's election is Sina Toossi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy. We discuss what we mean by "reformist" in the context of Iranian politics, which leads into a broad conversation about the kinds of changes we might see in Iranian domestic and foreign policy as Pezeshkian takes the reins of government from a hardline faction that has been dominant for the last several years.
The Labour Party won an overwhelming victory in the recent elections in the United Kingdom. Keir Starmer is now Prime Minister, ending 14 years of Conservative rule in the UK. So what does this mean for Britain's foreign policy? Can we expect any major changes to Britain's relationship with the world?
Joining me to discuss the foreign policy implications of the UK elections is Jason Pack, host of the Disorder Podcast. We have an extended discussion about the new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, who Jason Pack argues will have an outsized role in shaping UK foreign policy in the years to come. This includes reorienting and reinvigorating Britain's once-vaunted global development programs.
"The Lammy Doctrine" New Statesmen The Disorder podcast: https://linktr.ee/disorderpod
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