Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod: Inflation Monitor - Core goods inflation firms as services cool Sep 03, 2026

Global headline inflation cooled in July but is set to reaccelerate in August as higher energy prices reverse the recent decline. Food inflation has remained remarkably subdued, though rising pipeline pressures suggest a gradual pickup into year-end. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.7%oya, but a rotation is taking hold, with easing services inflation increasingly offset by firmer goods price inflation. We expect this dynamic to keep global inflation close to 3% and reinforce the case for further central bank tightening. Against this backdrop, next week’s US CPI report will be closely watched ahead of this month’s FOMC decision.

Speakers

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

Abiel Reinhart, US Economist

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Euro Area Economist

This podcast was recorded on Sept 3rd, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5421842-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5406573-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432155-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381881-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Türkiye and Kazakhstan - Disinflation at crossroads Sep 01, 2026

In this episode, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Fatih Akcelik, and Khamza Sharifzoda examine the diverging inflation trajectories of Türkiye, where disinflation has stalled but not been derailed, and Kazakhstan, where the pace of disinflation has slowed. The discussion explores the underlying forces shaping inflation dynamics in both economies, the respective roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and the critical influence of inflation expectations. The speakers further consider the outlook for each central bank as policymakers assess the appropriate pace of monetary easing in the period ahead.

This podcast was recorded on 01 September 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432113-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5346481-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165446-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390753-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Beachside banter Aug 21, 2026

While the soft July data made us a little nervous, the August data is rebuilding confidence in a cyclical lift. As the business cycle regains its swagger, the odds of hikes will shift back up. More structural forces are also lifting yields, as both neutral rates and term premia are adding to longer-term borrowing costs. The downside depends on how current asset prices are a function of lower borrowing costs. There will be little to echo from the Grand Tetons around Jackson Hole.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Western Europe motors on Aug 21, 2026

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the positive growth signals out of Western Europe and whether that will push the more reluctant central banks to hike.

This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Will Georgia Get a Rating Upgrade? Aug 17, 2026

Georgia’s economy continues to defy expectations, with growth remaining exceptionally strong, despite a challenging external backdrop. In this episode, we discuss the drivers of Georgia’s resilience, including the rapid expansion of IT and services exports, fiscal discipline, strong capital inflows, and improving external buffers. With S&P recently revising Georgia’s sovereign rating outlook to positive, we explore the outlook for growth and inflation, the country’s evolving geopolitical positioning and whether strengthening macro fundamentals could ultimately pave the way for a rating upgrade.

Speakers

Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5350562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Mixed nuts Aug 07, 2026

A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 7 August 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Vibe check Jul 31, 2026

The view is tracking a cyclical lift that comes with job growth, which in turn will amplify already elevated inflation concerns and spark a central bank turn toward tightening. Whether the mood around this call is shifting for the better or not is up for debate given ongoing downside worries. Against this backdrop, Chair Warsh’s performance in conveying an effective Fed policy path is also up for debate.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Solid growth and clarity of speech in W. Europe Jul 31, 2026

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the solid 2Q26 GDP reports and the (relative) clarity of central bank speak in Western Europe.

This podcast was recorded on 30 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Inflation Monitor: Inflation down, but not out Jul 30, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest inflation developments and the outlook for the second half. The pullback in energy prices delivered a sizable disinflationary impulse in June, but that inflation drag is unlikely to persist unless oil prices move lower again. Global core inflation eased in June, but owed largely to a soft US print which may be understating underlying momentum. Through the noise, global core inflation remains sticky at closer to 3%––a level we expect to be maintained during 2H26. Lower food inflation has helped to temper the energy shock, but risks are for a turn higher as El Niño intensifies.

This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381620-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5352836-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5372703-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5370262-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5368433-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: The eagle and snake Jul 24, 2026

The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: The starting point is good and that matters Jul 24, 2026

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the latest on the Western European economy, which is seeing improving growth face off against yet another energy price shock.

This podcast was recorded on 24 July, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: One-and-a-half-handed economists Jul 17, 2026

While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a still elevated level.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: Growth upsides, Hormuz relapse, ECB pause and a new UK PM Jul 17, 2026

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM.

This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Who, me? Worry? Jul 10, 2026

In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or arguing about them. The baseline is still for continued expansion with a bit of upside risk driven by an unstoppable consumer, but downsides can still be seen in the tail.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: Upside growth risks in the Euro area as Le Pen runs Jul 10, 2026

This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France.

This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Being there Jul 02, 2026

An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: W. European Economics Jul 02, 2026

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.

This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky Jul 02, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentum; if Brent holds near current levels, headline inflation could slide below ~2%ar and support 2H26 growth. While the difficult trade-off posed by a shock that raises inflation and lowers growth is being removed, central banks still need to contend with uncomfortably firm services price pressures and overall core inflation that remains stuck close to 3%.

This podcast was recorded on July 02, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5345242-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5354109-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5333946-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332592-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332794-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: One battle after another Jun 26, 2026

The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get the inflation contained.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: W. European Economics Jun 26, 2026

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.

This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: W. European Economics Jun 19, 2026

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.

This podcast was recorded on June 19, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Shifting sands Jun 12, 2026

Growth resilience through 2Q, hints of a deal to get oil flowing through the Strait, and signs of firming labor markets raise the question of shifting growth risks to the upside for 2H26. A reassessment of growth and inflation risks is, in turn, sparking a rethink in central bank policies.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me hear your cycle talk Jun 05, 2026

Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening out, supporting our thesis that the cycle owes more to fading business caution than to a narrow AI boost. How well the supply side of the economy can keep pace with firming demand will tell the tale for central banks, including the Fed—which is likely to shift toward a neutral stance this month.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 June 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: I’m okay, you’re okay May 29, 2026

The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or have the same degree of caution? If the Strait opens, will the cycle accelerate or are there headwinds to still worry about for 2H26? And if not, what should this mean for central banks?

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 29 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy boosts headline, while core pressures build May 28, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, bringing the gain since February to 1%-pt. The three-month annualized headline CPI rate jumped to 6.0%––its strongest pace since 2022––with energy prices alone adding 4%ar. Core inflation has remained sticky around 3% but we see growing risks of a break higher amid a mix of goods sector cost pressures, tightening labor markets, and firm pricing power. The signals on services inflation are mixed, with surveys suggesting a sharp loss in demand growth alongside a jump in prices.

This podcast was recorded on May 28, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5313158-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5308513-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5309828-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5300334-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Wobble, wobble May 22, 2026

After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week’s DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks alive. Absent this risk, inflation pressures are underappreciated and point to a potential central bank problem in the coming quarters.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 22 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Le coût de la vie May 14, 2026

Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: The Changing Chessboard of the South Caucasus May 13, 2026

In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlooking. We then turn to the June 2026 parliamentary elections and why their outcome is directly tied to the pace of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and the prospect of opening the Turkish border for the first time since 1993. After more than three decades of conflict, a new chapter may finally be within reach in the South Caucasus.

Speakers

Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Moderator: Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 13 May 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5250547-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5207471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165451-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Save poor Bob if you please Apr 30, 2026

The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously on hold. The ability of the US consumer to smooth as well as they did last year is debated.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 30 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Headline surges, core moderates Apr 28, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energy was well-behaved, with core inflation up a modest 0.19% gain last month. Although the 3%ar 3m run-rate in core inflation remains elevated, the step-down in March reinforces central bank patience through the initial leg of this oil price spike. Inflation paths are differentiated across regions, but so are central bank reaction functions. We expect Western European central banks to tilt more hawkish in response to the energy shock than the Fed.

This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5277839-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5267518-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5261954-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: How bad could it get? Apr 24, 2026

With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Much ado about oil Apr 17, 2026

While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly for the Fed.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: On the strait and harrow Apr 10, 2026

The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on April 10, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s unclear that ends unclear Apr 03, 2026

The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: That's gonna leave a mark Mar 27, 2026

The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Another week into the unknown Mar 20, 2026

Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: Strait no chaser Mar 13, 2026

The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty high, central banks will likely stay in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which cyclical context influences policy decisions is debated. A few brief remarks provided on Asian activity tracking.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor Mar 12, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock.

This podcast was recorded on March 12, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5216250-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5232201-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222819-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222602-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5223806-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5229672-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: Pricing in conflict Mar 06, 2026

The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labor markets continue to lag.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: What could go wrong? Feb 27, 2026

Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a focus on how to think about AI’s impact.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Rare Earths Feb 26, 2026

J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience.

In this episode we discuss the group’s inaugural report on Rare Earths, we discuss the rare earth supply chain, why rare earths are critical, common myths, and the potential US playbook going forward.

Featuring Jahangir Aziz, Co-Head of Economic Research and Head of Industry & Policy Thematics, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy.

This podcast was recorded on February 25, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5211349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: Start me up Feb 20, 2026

The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined with elevated inflation make market pricing for Fed cuts in 2H26 increasingly untenable.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: Some signal, a lot of noise Feb 13, 2026

There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US inflation data follows a similar pattern, with the underlying signal pointing to somewhat less firming than incorporated in our forecast.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: It’s the job market, stupid Feb 06, 2026

Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be central to presumptive Fed Chair Warsh’s ability to either deliver cuts or be stymied by a more cautious FOMC. Given the upward pressures on inflation in 1H26, inflation is less likely to be an x-factor pointing to lower Fed rates.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 6 February 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor Feb 04, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamics looks to be ending and will give way to more disparate 2026 outcomes. US inflation is expected to accelerate above 3%oya as an early-year rebound combines with persistent goods price pressures. At the same time, declining goods prices and moderating wage pressures should push Euro area inflation down further to 1.9% . Early 2026 signals, including the flash Euro area HICP for January and US price surveys, lend support to our views.

This podcast was recorded on 04 February 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5185055-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167500-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5196570-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5174882-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Global Data Watch Weekender: Look inna yuh crystal ball, culture man Jan 30, 2026

Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firming and pushing the unemployment rate to record lows. In the US, Fed chair nominee Warsh is likely to push for lower rates but could find himself in the dissent in the face of strong growth and sticky high inflation.

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 30 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: The shadow knows Jan 23, 2026

Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way amid strong growth and elevated inflation this year. With personnel changes coming up, leadership questions abound.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Watch Weekender: The more things change… Jan 16, 2026

Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest US policy announcements meaningful? Is the Fed in serious jeopardy? Can you believe we’re only two weeks into the new year?

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re back, baby! Jan 09, 2026

The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to new drivers, while also debating how to interpret the latest data and geopolitical developments. Growth is tracking strong, but labor markets are still a key concern.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide Jan 06, 2026

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports. Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years. This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.

This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167134-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5160379-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5161477-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5159323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires Dec 12, 2025

Kicking the tires
After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: still-to-come immigration drags and the hit to growth and inflation from health care costs.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook Dec 08, 2025

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The conversation also explores the outlook for 2026, examining whether these driving forces will sustain the region’s momentum. Our speakers also discuss key economic and political risks that may impact Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the year ahead.

This podcast was recorded on December 08, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5136574-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5140889-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5124410-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data Nov 21, 2025

The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching Nov 14, 2025

The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid 3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 November 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth! Nov 07, 2025

Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3% Nov 04, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target and we still anticipate tariff-related pressures will push it higher, with the likely peak now in 1Q26. Outside the US, core inflation has moderated somewhat as goods inflation is not seeing the same tariff-induced bounce. However, core services inflation has yet to fully normalize, and volatile items add to the sticky core picture.

Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canada Economist

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5113765-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094754-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110036-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better Nov 03, 2025

Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.

Speakers
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110345-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down Oct 31, 2025

After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here Oct 17, 2025

Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky absent a more material soft patch in growth.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really? Oct 10, 2025

A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods… Oct 03, 2025

The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth Sep 26, 2025

The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground.

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core Sep 26, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy.

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex Sep 23, 2025

Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeasurement of tech investment in the GDP accounts.

This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery Sep 19, 2025

Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when? Sep 12, 2025

The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed Sep 05, 2025

Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent Aug 29, 2025

Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street Aug 08, 2025

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag Aug 08, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.

This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge Aug 01, 2025

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain Jul 29, 2025

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more. EM also needs to offer a sufficient growth pick-up to pull in flows. We also discuss China’s role as an attractor or substitute for broader EM capital flows. Greater macro stability for many EMs have also necessitated lower capital flows and enabled EM to face three big economic and funding shocks over the last 5 years.

Speakers:

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5040188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it Jul 25, 2025

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a sharp break still to come?

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking Jul 18, 2025

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025 Jul 17, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing. A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off.

Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030422-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0

For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways Jul 11, 2025

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear Jun 27, 2025

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing conviction in the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. We see the risk of a September easing as high, contingent upon further evidence of softening in the US labor markets.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here Jun 20, 2025

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the forecast even further.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown Jun 13, 2025

The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied Jun 12, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy will be net disinflationary for Europe and see a positive gap opening up between core inflation in the US and the rest of the world.

This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5006121-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991721-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000178-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4993783-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading Jun 06, 2025

The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp May 30, 2025

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes.

This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on May 23, 2025

Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way May 16, 2025

The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates.

This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment May 09, 2025

The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a break in the data.

This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning May 02, 2025

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extended hold.

This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor Apr 30, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25.

This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966015-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4956489-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4960640-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain Apr 25, 2025

The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost advantage and mutual dependence Apr 24, 2025

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock.

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw Apr 17, 2025

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 04/17/2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight Apr 11, 2025

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession.

This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark Apr 04, 2025

A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word Mar 28, 2025

Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor Mar 26, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down. We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks to our forecast for global core inflation to moderate to below 3%ar in coming quarter. Beneath this sticky inflation perspective, we continue to see scope for greater diversity in inflation outcomes across countries.

This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4943283-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading Mar 21, 2025

Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer Mar 14, 2025

The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.

See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest/publication/9002054) for disclaimers and methodology for Chase Card Tracker data.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions Mar 07, 2025

A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projected rise in German fiscal spending, the US’s own policy actions are likely to end this expansion’s period of US exceptionalism.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs Mar 04, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. Tariffs are likely to add to inflation in the near-term, but medium-term inflation pressures should tilt lower due to the associated drags on sentiment. Euro area underlying inflation remains on track to moderate to 2% as weak demand looks to be weighing on corporate pricing power, while declining wage inflation fades cost pressures. US inflation appears moderately more sticky and a recent pop in some measures of inflation expectations point to a more gradual pace of disinflation.

This podcast was recorded on March 04, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920790-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925120-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic Mar 03, 2025

Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectives of the Trump tariffs, and what that might mean for tariff revenues.

Speakers:

Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canadian Economist
Murat Tasci, Senior US Economist

This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: When worlds collide Feb 28, 2025

We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then sets the foundation for assessing the risks related to the multitude of US policy risks on the horizon.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.

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