Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene Jul 04, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth.

After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth

(07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021

(11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario

(17:44) Current Market Liquidity

(28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies

(33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs

(40:50) Risk of Recession

(46:58) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek Jun 30, 2022

Show notes

Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.

Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.

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Referenced In The Show:

2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en

Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:28) Background

(06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble

(26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time

(40:45) Bit.com

(41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook

(54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook

(1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot?

(1:14:00) Counterparty Risk

“In 6 to 12 Months, We’re Going To Have A Big Problem” | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang Jun 27, 2022

Show notes

Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy?

Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions.

Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch

Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

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Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling

(05:00) What Is A Recession?

(07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation

(09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing

(17:36) Timeline of a Recession

(24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex

(32:13) Demographics and Inflation

(41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation

(53:45) Conclusion

A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard Jun 23, 2022

Show notes

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.

Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard

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(00:00) Introduction

(04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections

(19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect

(24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating

(29:20) Looking at Economic Trends

(35:02) Bit.com Ad

(35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution

(40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs

(42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies

(46:50) Zombie Companies

(48:45) The Big Tech Companies

(53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year

(59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve

(1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors

(1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries

(1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades

(1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ

(1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market

(1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy

Trading Volatility in Volatile Markets | Benn Eifert Jun 20, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level.

We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) Introduction

(00:15) Background

(05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders

(08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off

(13:57) The VIX

(19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk

(24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market

(28:00) Single-Stock Volatility

(33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers?

(39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility

(48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx")

(55:35) Common Options Mistakes

(1:01:00) The Macro

(1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom?

Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith Jun 17, 2022

Show notes

Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a “collar” a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the “fireworks” in the S&P 500 may not start until July.

Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022.

Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex

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Cash Is King During Fed's Hawkish Warpath, Says Former $20 Billion Fund Manager Jun 16, 2022

Show notes

Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterday’s action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Fed’s revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022.

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Alfonso Peccatiello’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/

His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details

The Fed’s June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) FOMC Overview

(06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop?

(09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate

(12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock

(17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation?

(23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation

(29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio?

(41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift

“Soft Landing” Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq Jun 16, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Fed’s much-desired “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices.

Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (“R*”), financial repression, and demand destruction.

Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale

Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI

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____

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) Introduction

(00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro?

(04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy?

(10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing

(21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation?

(26:20) Bit.com Ad

(26:52) The End Of Free Money

(29:54) Europe

(34:14) Shorting Equities

(38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro"

(44:07) Asset Allocation

The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello Jun 13, 2022

Show notes

With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022.

Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf

Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

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Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/

Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com

Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/

Alf’s latest piece, “The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE,” can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details

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Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell Jun 13, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets.

Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more.

This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/

Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:28) What Is Liquidity?

(09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity

(13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window

(24:50) Is This Unprecedented?

(28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile?

(30:16) The Fed And The VIX

(33:16) Inflation and Recession

(36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do?

(39:20) Gold and Crypto

(41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role

(45:17) The People's Bank of China

(46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have?

(49:12) The Commercial Banking System

(53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed?

(1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations

(1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit?

(1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity"

(1:12:55) China

(1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market

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