Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Collapsing Liquidity Has Put The Commodity Supercycle on Hold | Tian Yang Aug 04, 2022

Show notes

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In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the “commodity supercycle” thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in “intermission” because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (“duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar.

Filmed on August 1, 2022.

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(00:00) Introduction

(05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing

(10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall?

(21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone?

(26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.

(31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy?

(37:02) European Stocks

(38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over?

(45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue

(51:40) Term Premium, Explained

(57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation

(1:02:08) Potential Hedges

(1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith Aug 01, 2022

Show notes

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Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!

Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).

–

Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions

(07:09) Forward Volatility

(10:53) New Outlooks

(19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade

(22:00) Navigating High Environments

(27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio

(33:15) The Nature Of Money

(37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility

(44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors

(49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed

(54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market

(57:05) Short Squeezes

(1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies

(1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession?

The Most Misunderstood Asset Class Of All Time | Louis Camhi Jul 28, 2022

Show notes

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this!

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Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) Introduction

(12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity)

(15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor?

(28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs

(33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth"

(35:26) Shorting SPACs

(48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC)

(50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies

(53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes

(56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders

(1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From?

There Are No Doves Left At The Federal Reserve | Nick Timiraos Jul 27, 2022

Show notes

Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT).

Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve.

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Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren Jul 25, 2022

Show notes

Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market.

Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation.

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Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) Introduction

(01:01) A Slowing Economy

(06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly?

(10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden

(15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike?

(19:39) Liquidity and Volatility

(28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization

(36:05) The Crypto World

(37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities

(42:18) China

(48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth

(51:59) China Is Running Out of Dollars

(57:48) The Dollar Milkshake

(1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy

Why Are Commodities Crashing? | Tracy Shuchart Jul 21, 2022

Show notes

Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities.

Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections

(04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets

(06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas?

(11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand

(14:09) Structural Supply Deficit

(16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing

(23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money?

(24:30) Comparing Profit Margins

(26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities

(31:40) The Shorter Term

(33:22) Commodities

(35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm

(37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates

(39:30) Coal

(41:03) Hedging Issues

(43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities

(48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks

(49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation

(53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe

Making Informed Decisions as an Individual Investor | Kyrill Asatur Jul 18, 2022

Show notes

Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally don’t have.

What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:36) Macro at Centerfin

(03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor

(08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed

(18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble

(22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds

(30:30) Distressed Bonds

(32:41) Thinking About Size

(38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital

(41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make

(44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin?

(47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto

(53:36) Macro Hedge Funds

No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece Jul 14, 2022

Show notes

Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more.

Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But that’s not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections.

Filmed on July 7, 2022.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle

(11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble

(18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation

(21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle

(28:54) Bit.com Ad

(29:25) Recession on a Global Scale

(32:10) PMIs

(37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation

(45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve

(46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle

(49:17) Asset Allocation

(58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio

(1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity

(1:04:58) Are We In A Recession?

(1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About

Will A Recession End The Commodity Bull Market? | Rick Rule Jul 11, 2022

Show notes

Link to Rick Rule’s Symposium on Natural Resource Investing: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks

Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: don’t overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register.

Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe.

Filmed on July 5, 2022.

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:29) Commodity Thesis

(04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession

(10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand?

(14:52) Oil

(26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe

(35:20) Natural Resource Symposium

(39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned

(48:53) Uranium

(55:00) Natural Gas

(57:07) Specific Stocks

(1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks

(1:04:58) Copper and Iron

(1:07:32) Hedging

(1:13:10) Gold

We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski Jul 07, 2022

Show notes

Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:30) The World's Third Depression

(14:25) Recession Trends

(16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression

(24:25) Banker Greed

(30:28) Bit.com Ad