Excess Returns

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Ten Great Investors Share the One Lesson They Would Teach the Average Investor Mar 13, 2022

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When we started Excess Returns, we stayed away from having a standard closing question for guests because we couldn’t come up with one that summed up the knowledge of our guests into something simple that your average investor could understand. But a little over a year ago, we came up with a question that we thought worked perfectly.

If our goal was to help investors learn along with us, then it made the most sense to ask our guests the most important lesson they had learned themselves.

So we finally settled on our standard closing question:

Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be?

Since we started asking the question, we have received some amazing answers and we thought it would be interesting to take a look at some of the best ones.

Here are the top 10 lessons our guests would teach your average investor.

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Dual Momentum Investing with Gary Antonacci Mar 08, 2022

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In this episode, we speak with Gary Antonacci about his Dual Momentum investing approach. We look at both absolute and relative momentum individually, and the pros and cons of the measures that can be used to define them. We then discuss the process of combining them together into a dual momentum strategy. We also cover a wide variety of other momentum investing topics, including using modules to introduce uncorrelated assets into a strategy, whether value and quality can enhance momentum and how momentum works when applied to cryptocurrencies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Gamma, Vanna, Charm and the Impact of Options on the Stock Market with Jason DeLorenzo Mar 03, 2022

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While many investors are likely familiar with options, their impact on the stock market is much less understood. When an investor buys an option, it can kick off a series of flows into and out of the underlying stock or index that can have significant impact on the price of the instrument itself over time. And with options activity up dramatically in recent years, these flows have become much more important for investors to understand.

This week we take a deep dive into options and their impact on the stock market with Jason DeLorenzo of Ad Deum funds. We look at the major factors that impact the price of options and how those factors lead to option dealer flows that drive stock prices. We also discuss his "Overvixing" model that uses the relationship between the return of the S&P 500 and the VIX index to predict future market performance.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Systematic Macro Investing with 42 Macro Founder Darius Dale Feb 20, 2022

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Many investors see macro forecasting as a process about making bold binary predictions about the future of the economy and the market. Those predictions can gets lots of press when they are right, but the reality is that risk management and probabilities are much more important to a macro process than big, bold calls. In this episode we talk to Darius Dale of 42 Macro, who has developed a systematic process to address these issues. We talk about the process of identifying the market regime using quantitative methods and how to use that information to build portfolios and manage risk. We also couldn't help but ask for his outlook on all the major asset classes based on his systematic framework.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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An Inside Look at the GameStop Story and the Revolution That Wasn't With Spencer Jakab Feb 13, 2022

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The GameStop short squeeze in early 2021 was the talk of the investing world. It had all the parts of a great story. It had some investors making massive profits, while others suffered huge losses. It had anonymous investors on social media as its heroes and hedge fund managers as it villains. It also had a significant social side to it, with many seeing it as an example of individual investors getting the best of Wall Street professionals.

But there is much more to the story than the popular narrative. In this episode, we go behind the scenes and get the real story from the Wall Street Journal's Spencer Jakab, author of the new book "The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors". We talk about what really happened and what all of us can learn from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Motley Fool Founder David Gardner on Finding Rule Breaking Growth Stocks Feb 06, 2022

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This week we are joined by David Gardner, founder of the Motley Fool. We discuss his unique Rule Breaker approach to finding long-term growth investments and the criteria that the most successful growth companies of our time have in common. We also cover a wide variety of other topics, including why having a sell discipline is overrated, the lessons from the biggest mistakes he has made and what he has learned from the Motley Fool's first venture capital fund.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Some Thoughts on the Recent Market Decline Jan 30, 2022

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With the market experiencing its first correction in a while, we thought it would be interesting to look at some behind the scenes data we found interesting about the recent decline. We discuss the varying performance from value, the carnage in the growth space, the importance of discount rates and the impact of the decline on value and growth spreads.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio with Stephen Foerster Jan 25, 2022

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Investors are constantly searching for the perfect portfolio. Although it may be elusive, there are common principles that can allow all of us to get closer to it. We speak to Stephen Foerster, co-author of the new book "In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest" about some of those principles, and what some of history's best investors and researchers can teach us about them.

Along with his co-author Andrew Lo, Stephen spoke to investing legends like Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Jeremy Siegel, Jack Bogle, Charley Ellis and Robert Shiller to capture their ideas on the construction of a perfect portfolio. We go through each of those interviews to identify the key lessons investors can learn from them.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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A Deep Dive Into Quality Growth Investing with Harding Loevner's Rick Schmidt Jan 20, 2022

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There is an interesting dichotomy in the growth investing space in that growth stocks as a whole tend to underperform the market over time, but the best performing individual stocks in the market also typically come from the growth space. This puts a premium on the ability to separate the winners from the losers for growth managers. Our guest this week has produced a very strong record of doing exactly that. We speak with Rick Schmidt, Partner and Portfolio Manager with Harding Loevner.

We discuss their process for selecting quality growth companies and the criteria they use within it. We also cover the impact of macro factors on growth investing, the current valuations in the growth space and the important attributes of good brands and management teams.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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