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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Latest Episodes:

Inflation, Bank Failures, Bubbles and Other Lessons from Financial History with Mark Higgins Mar 14, 2024

Show notes

There have been many significant events in the economy and stock market over the past several years. We have had inflation. We have had bank failures. We have had a pandemic. We have even had a potential bubble developing in the AI space. Despite their differences, there is one thing that all of these events have in common - all of them have happened before. And studying that history can allow us to better understand them and what they mean for the market and the economy. This week we are joined by the perfect person to help us do that. We speak with Mark Higgins, author of "Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future." We discuss what all of us can learn from financial history and how we can apply that knowledge to become better investors.

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Investing in the Future of Health Care with Mike Taylor Mar 08, 2024

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In this episode, we are joined by Mike Taylor, manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). Mike is one of the best healthcare investors out there and has managed portfolios for Oppenheimer and major hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium. PINK is the only ETF in existence that donates all its profits to charity with its proceeds benefitting the Susan G. Komen foundation. We talk to Mike about the exciting developments going on in the healthcare space and how he thinks about constructing a portfolio to profit from them. We also discuss his work as a scientist, the lessons from his hedge fund career and his views on the current macro environment.
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Show Us Your Portfolio: Bob Elliott Feb 29, 2024

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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the unique multi strategy approach he uses to manage his personal portfolio. We cover the weaknesses of the 60-40 portfolio, the 4 buckets Bob uses as the building blocks for his investment strategy, the benefits of simplicity, how Bob views home ownership, leaving money to children, gardening and a lot more.

Has Passive Investing Broken the Market? | Mike Green Feb 22, 2024

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David Einhorn said in a recent podcast interview that he feels that the market is broken. He has made significant changes to his investment approach as a result. Much of the basis for his assertion is based on the work of Simplify's Mike Green, who has been warning investors about the dangers of passive investing for many years. In this episode, we are fortunate to have Mike back for his third appearance on the podcast. We discuss the impact that the rise of passive investing has had on the market, how that impacts the success of fundamental investing strategies and the risks it poses to the market as a whole. We also get Mike's take on inflation, the economy, Fed policy and a lot more.

The Next Chapter for Inflation with Cullen Roche Feb 15, 2024

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With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future path of inflation and what to expect from the Fed going forward.

The No Landing Scenario with Cem Karsan Feb 08, 2024

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In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the potential coming February window of weakness.

Challenging the Foundation of Asset Pricing Theory with Andrew Chen and Alejandro Lopez-Lira Feb 01, 2024

Show notes

Those of us that invest using factors have been taught that there needs to be a reason why they work. We have been taught that for their excess returns to persist in the future, there should be a behavioral or risk-based explanation as to why they exist in the first place. If that assumption is wrong, it would call into question the validity of much of the work that has been done in asset pricing research and would also have significant implications for real world investment strategies build using the research. Our guest this week recently published a paper that calls those core ideas of asset pricing theory into question. We speak with Andrew Chen, Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve's Capital Markets Section and Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Florida about their new paper "Does Peer Reviewed Theory Predict the Cross Section of Stock Returns." The paper compared anomalies with behavioral and risk-based explanations to others that were purely data mined. They found no difference in out of sample returns among the 3 groups. In the interview, we take a deep dive into their findings and what they mean for both the world of academic research and real-world investment strategies.

Show Us Your Portfolio: Katie Stockton Jan 25, 2024

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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we are joined by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. We discuss how Katie thinks about managing her personal portfolio and the investing process. We cover Katie's approach to asset allocation, how she incorporates technical analysis into her strategy, international diversification, the benefits of a financial advisor, her views on leaving money to kids and a lot more.

Show Us Your Portfolio: Andrew Beer Jan 18, 2024

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In this episode, we speak with DBi founder Andrew Beer about his approach to managing his personal portfolio. We discuss how Andrew looks at his portfolio in the context of his life goals, his views on stocks and bonds, how he incorporates managed futures into his portfolio, his views on homeownership and charitable giving and a lot more.

High Conviction Value Investing with Chris Davis Jan 11, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, we are privileged to be joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors. Chris has built an outstanding long-term record as a value investor and also serves on the board of both Berkshire Hathaway and the Coca-Cola Company. We discuss his process for analyzing companies and his owner earnings-based approach that led him to companies like Amazon when many value investors avoided them. We also discuss his biggest lessons from his father and grandfather, both of whom were very successful investors as well, how Charlie Munger changed his life and his thoughts on concentration and position sizing.

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