Business

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Latest Episodes:

Blind to Power: The Hidden Investing Risk of Rising Strongmen | Peter Atwater Jun 12, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

📌 Topics Covered:

Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalism

How investors must rethink confidence, control, and certainty

The "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countries

Implications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing world

Fragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical risk

How social media and sentiment shape investor perception

Where investors are most misaligned with current realities

Confidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more

Finding Great GARP Stocks with David Giroux Jun 09, 2025

Show notes

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market.

We cover:

Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantage

How he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecasts

Why long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantage

The impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio margins

His quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companies

What investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investing

The CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptional

Why he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

The $9 Trillion Risk | Rupert Mitchell on the Unwind of US Dominance - And What Comes After It Jun 07, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.

🔍 Topics Covered:

Why European pension funds are rethinking U.S. equity exposure

The “Chart of Truth” and its implications for global allocations

The unexpected strength of retail investors in recent rallies

Mag 7 dominance, Nvidia’s market impact, and AI euphoria

Why Apple might be the ultimate funding short

A deep dive into the “Bushy” portfolio and why 60/40 is broken

How inflation volatility shapes asset choices and international diversification

The case for owning Goodyear and Korean utilities

The problem with adjusted EBITDA and financial storytelling

How being a generalist can be a competitive investing edge

Inside a Top Quant's Playbook | Joe Gubler on the Hidden Drivers of Alpha Jun 05, 2025

Show notes

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio Design

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine quality definitions, Joe reveals a cutting-edge playbook for the future of quantitative investing.

📌 In This Episode, You'll Learn:

Why Causeway doesn't treat its quant model as sacrosanct

How to blend fundamental overlays with systematic strategies

The logic behind composite factors and contextual weighting

Unconventional factor signals like corporate events and peer-based momentum

How machine learning enhances quality assessment

How Causeway adapts factor models across regimes and markets

What most quants miss when it comes to factor construction and interpretation

The evolving role of AI and NLP in alpha generation

Joe's views on passive flows and fundamental mispricings

Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next | Katie Stockton Jun 02, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear

How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages

Weakening market breadth and its implications

Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not

The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets

Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators

Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold

Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads

How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

The Stimulus Deception | Rob Arnott Explains What Economists Are Getting Wrong May 31, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using Research Affiliates’ capital markets expectations.

Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate

🎯 Topics Covered:

Why stimulus doesn't always stimulate economic growth

The hidden cost of high government spending

Lessons from Japan, Ireland, and the EU on fiscal policy

Why Keynes wouldn’t recognize today’s “Keynesianism”

The role of stimulus during crises like COVID and 2008

Tariffs as strategy vs. economic drag

Rob’s take on Trump, trade wars, and negotiating tactics

Crowding out: What debt does to private investment

Research Affiliates’ expected returns across major asset classes

Why large-cap U.S. stocks may be the most overvalued

The opportunity in value, small-cap, and international markets

The Hidden Logic of Options | Put-Call Parity Explained with Legos May 28, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.

Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible.

What We Cover:

Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parity

How to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only options

The concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and puts

How put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocks

The real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really are

How professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditions

A deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds

Too Much Google, Tesla, Nvidia? | Wes Gray & Sri Narayan Explain a Smarter Way Out May 24, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management.

Topics Covered:

The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it’s getting worse

How stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposure

Why traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving it

Understanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversification

The mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategies

How exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidity

Using ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraints

Real estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirement

Costs, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund model

Regulatory and legal perspectives behind the structure

Practical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positions

How to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions

The Fourth Turning Is Now | Neil Howe on the Coming Financial Reset and Who Rebuilds What’s Broken May 17, 2025

Show notes

What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next.

Topics Covered:

Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters

The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders

How community rises from conflict during fourth turnings

Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism

The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises

Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation

How institutions are built—and who builds them

Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?

Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies

What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it

What Investors Get Wrong About Trade Wars | Kai Wu May 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered:

Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted

The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms

How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level

Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior

The four traits of resilient global firms

Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions

International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks

Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world