Eurodollar University

Latest Episodes:

Interview: Daniel Want Jun 18, 2021

Show notes

Daniel Want, the early-21st century Australian philosopher and Chief Investment Officer of Prerequisite Capital, discusses: absence of knowledge at educational institutions, transitory inflation, first principles, disconnected markets, justice as prerequisite and the unified magnitude of the crisis.

--------REFERENCES--------
Prerequisite Capital: https://bit.ly/3gjMvd7
Training Videos: https://bit.ly/3czM4sM

Daniel LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3gt3Rmq
Daniel Twitter: https://bit.ly/3gsH0r3
Daniel Gold Presentation: https://youtu.be/W619cfz25lQ

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

---------HEAR IT----------
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----EPISODE #83 TOPICS----
0:01:04 Will you receive an education if you attend college / university in the year 2021?
0:12:38 The Treasury, Eurodollar and US dollar markets are in agreement: transitory inflation.
0:26:16 What condition is the world (excluding the USA) economy in?
0:28:52 What condition is China's economy in?
0:37:02 Are sovereign bond yields still reliable signals if central banks are buying bonds?
0:45:58 Collateral demand signals system deterioration and impediments to private enterprise.
0:53:36 Economists pursue an ideal technocracy unaware of limits to understanding / knowledge.
0:59:53 Properly functioning markets rest upon a just, reliable legal system.
1:08:53 What do the months and quarters ahead suggest about the post-Covids reflation?
1:17:28 Has the world ever faced such an all-encompassing crisis as today?
1:20:22 Prerequisite Capital Management - portfolio manager, researchers and consultants.

---------WHO-----------
Daniel Want, Chief Investment Officer and Director at Prerequisite Capital Management, with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Earth Awakens" by Jon Björk at Epidemic Sound.

Janitor, Not Central Bank Jun 16, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson of the 1930s -- and how did he break his promise less than 5 years later?

PART 02: In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these safe assets? Did the 'Treasury market break'? No. Yields shot higher due to illiquidity. And liquidity is JOB #1 of a central bank. So... here's looking at you Federal Reserve.

PART 03: Central banks inject liquidity into money markets to PREVENT a crisis. Let us review the last 14 years: Global Financial Crisis I (2008), European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2011), Chinese Reserve Crisis (2015), Global Financial Crisis II (2020). Not too good. Do they know what they're doing?

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
When You Aren’t Actually A Central Bank, Part 1: The Real Inflation: https://bit.ly/350rgXe
The Fed Is the Perpetual Janitor, Cleaning Up After Itself: https://bit.ly/3ird5Cw
When You Aren’t Actually A Central Bank, Part 2: The Stubborn Deflation: https://bit.ly/3x5fMxt
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Right Timing" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

Uncertain Shadow Money Jun 07, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: A new measure of the monetary order will be unveiled at the end of this two-part episode. But first, a discussion of uncertainty, incomplete pictures, relativity, perspective and the limits of human knowledge. Also, bank reserves and repurchase agreements.

PART 02: Within the US Triparty Repo environment, utilizing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we observe that three dollar shortages between 2010-20 appeared as a stagnation and/or contraction in observations per repurchase agreement transaction.

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
The First Part of the Quantum of Money: QE, Repo, and…Niels Bohr: https://bit.ly/3fRdITU
The Second Part of the Quantum of Money: Results From The Triparty Repo Experiment: https://bit.ly/3vSWzPs
NY FRB Tri-Party/GCF Repo: https://nyfed.org/2TxpV7B
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "36mm" by Jobii at Epidemic Sound.

Reading Around - Myrmikan on The Path to Hyperinflation Jun 04, 2021

Show notes

Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federal Reserve's assets suggests two options remain: searing hyperinflation or wrenching austerity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Glitterati" by Fox Morrow at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
The Path to Hyperinflation: https://bit.ly/3uDNmZW

----------WHERE----------
Daniel Oliver's Writings: http://www.myrmikan.com/
Daniel Oliver's Twitter: https://twitter.com/myrmikan

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Ghost Money, the Eurodollar and Crypto Jun 02, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to 'too many bank reserves'. What does it really mean? Collateral scarcity. Systemic fragility. A warning.

PART 02: Chile, one of the 20th-century's rare economic success stories - from a low level of development to just short of advanced - held an election to rewrite its constitution. The winners? Anti-capitalists. And why not? After all, if a decade-long depression is capitalism...

PART 03: In the 15th century there was a Great Bullion Famine, which was solved by "ghost money". In the 1950s there was a Dollar Shortage, which was solved by the "eurodollar". In 2007 the Great Eurodollar Famine began (and hasn't ended!). Will it be solved by crypto currencies?

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
Reserving Observations On The Reverse Repo Of Reserves: https://bit.ly/3c4hyXz
No Reserving Interpretation About Reverse Repo Collateral Connection(s): https://bit.ly/3usmxb7
Chilling Global Wind Blowing Stronger: Chilly In Chile: https://bit.ly/3vy1Yv9
We'll Continue Hearing About a Global Recovery That Isn't Real: https://bit.ly/3yW4TQz
Monetary Wrongness Has Authored a Crypto Response: https://bit.ly/3uzLIZ4
Enter the Ghost - Cashless Payments in the Early Modern Low Countries, 1500-1800: https://bit.ly/3fuagyC
The Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire: https://bit.ly/3fwXKyr
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "All Right" by William Benckert feat. Johan Tengholm, Jonas Bäckman at Epidemic Sound.

Confessions to the Super Blood Moon May 31, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to confess in their recent meeting minutes that bank reserves are not money.

PART 02: There may be no better view into the incomprehensibly complex global monetary order than the Treasury International Capital report. We review the March TIC report and find a number of positive, good reflationary signals. We also find a number of bad, anti-reflationary warnings.

PART 03: A review of three economic accounts and three monetary accounts produce the same message: "Meh". Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production point to continued economic deceleration. Meanwhile the People's Bank of China is not bothering to stimulate. Why?

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
Inflation Huge: Jay Powell Did Blink, But It Had *Nothing* To Do With ‘Taper’: https://bit.ly/3vnrJOz
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (April 27–28, 2021): https://bit.ly/3bVjnpJ
TIC Reflation Rolling (Over?): https://bit.ly/3fQwPwg
China Repeats Its Same Case For No-Inflation Bond Yields: https://bit.ly/3wHPMrT
The Chinese Money Behind Global Inflation Baseball: https://bit.ly/3fwgdev
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Scary Stairsteps" by Stationary Sign at Epidemic Sound.

4 Reasons Why Inflation is Transitory May 24, 2021

Show notes

"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021 bond yields and auctions) why the probabilities favor a rise in CPI, not "inflation".

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----EPISODE #77 TOPICS----
00:00 What is the difference between a rise in consumer prices and inflation?
02:10 What are some examples of generalized "inflation" versus "consumer price increase"
04:09 Does generalized, sustained inflation mean real generalized, sustained economic activity?
06:30 The summer-autumn of 2000 delivered surging inflation - right on the cusp of a recession.
09:06 The bond market looked through the 2000 inflation surge to... the incoming recession.
13:06 The bond market looked through the 2008 inflation surge to... the incoming recession.
17:43 The April 2021 reading of US consumer price (including core) was nuclear explosion hot.
19:46 In 2000 we witnessed a similar inflation shock, that was not sustained (transitory?).
21:23 Since 2000 we have witnessed a number of inflation SURGES... that proved transitory.
23:18 What would change Jeff's mind about "transitory" inflation?
26:04 Producer prices were reported at the same time as CPI, strong but perhaps base effects?
28:30 The secondary bond market seems to be unbothered by both the CPI and PPI readings.
31:06 The primary bond market showed no perturbance; auctions went off swimmingly.
32:47 US Treasury 4-Week Bill auctions have been delivering "zeros" - demand is so high!
33:38 The balance of probabilities is that the market sees "transitory" inflation.

--------REFERENCES--------
How Can Anyone In Their Right Mind Say This Much Inflation Is Transitory?: https://bit.ly/3bO8k1w
What CPI (and PPI)?: https://bit.ly/34cONUn
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.

Reading George Friedman on The Myth of a Rules-Based World May 21, 2021

Show notes

Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "South Is That Way" by Lofive featuring Divty at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
The Myth of a Rules-Based World: https://bit.ly/3ugx2yP

----------WHERE----------
George Friedman's Writings: https://bit.ly/3gUl7ms
George Friedman's Twitter: https://twitter.com/George_Friedman

Geopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/
Geopolitical Futures Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpfutures

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

A Rise in Prices or Dictators or Both May 20, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key is to first understand why the devastation in the first place. Otherwise? Dictators.

PART 02: Starting in October 2019 the Federal Reserve began to buy US Treasury Bills, EXCLUSIVELY. Starting in March 2020 the Fed stopped buy UST Bills, EXPLICITLY. What happened in between? Only the second Global Financial Crisis. 'Oops! Sorry we stripped the system of collateral.'

PART 03: Claudius Ptolemy, a genius, reconciled a geocentric model of the Universe with unexpected planetary paths with "deferent", "epicycle", "eccentric" and "equant" movements. Ben Bernanke, a technocrat, reconciled the unexpected path of bond yields with "term premia".

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
Higher Prices Must Be Engineered to Restrain Dictators: https://bit.ly/3ttRxXt
SOMA’s Been Talking For Over A Year: Jay’s Got Some Explaining To Do (bills): https://bit.ly/33sXYja
Global, Not Term Premiums: What Low Yields Really Say: https://bit.ly/2RCgVgL
Is There a Global Factor in U.S. Bond Yields?: https://bit.ly/3f7qjRo
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Fort Green Sunset" by Brendon Moeller at Epidemic Sound.

Interview: Allison Fedirka May 17, 2021

Show notes

Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future.

---------SEE IT-----------
Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0
LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEi
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AFedirka

Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----EPISODE #74 TOPICS----
01:10 Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures (and polyglot!) as guest.
06:18 Uruguay is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success story - how did they do it?
14:52 Chile is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success stories - how did they do it?
18:55 Where does long-term political stability emanate from?
23:46 Which country or region has the potential to be the next emerging market success story?
26:52 How does the trend of deglobalization factor into geopolitical analysis?
29:31 Which countries demonstrate and execute successfully on a long-term vision? How do they?
40:06 Was the conceit of post-Cold War Globalization that it was inevitable and an evolution?
45:23 The biggest danger to geopolitical strategists is to not forecast serious changes.
49:40 What does the next world order look like? What is the next geopolitical equilibrium?
55:01 Is a decentralized international order possible?
60:57 Does cryptocurrency fit into a geopolitical analysis? What's its presence in S. America?
66:37 Do either Argentina or Venezuela, once wealthy nations, hold lessons for rich countries?

--------REFERENCES--------
Geopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/welcome/

---------WHO-----------
Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures, with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Queen of the Night" by Andrés Cantú at Epidemic Sound.

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