Eurodollar University

Latest Episodes:

Out of the Frying Pan Recession and into... Aug 02, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They're also multi-week, precipitous price declines. We review the last few months of gold price to triangulate if the pipes are rattling warnings.

PART 02: Foreigners were heavily selling US Treasuries in May 2021. Is this a GEOPOLITICAL plot? Is America's BANKRUPTCY imminent?!? Almost certainly not. We review the LONG HISTORY of foreigners selling US Treasuries in acute periods of dollar shortage. May's selling is a monetary warning.

PART 03: America's Covids Recession lasted only two months, says the National Bureau of Economic Research. But what if it wasn't a recession? What if 2007-09 wasn't a recession either? What if 2007-21 has been a depression? The Silent Depression.

-----SEE EPISODE 93-------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

-----HEAR EPISODE 93-----
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP. 93a REFERENCES----
Golden Collateral Checking: https://bit.ly/3j7HKmS
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin

----EP. 93b REFERENCES----
Yet Another Key Warning Sign, Piece Of Strong Evidence: TIC & The Long Misunderstood History of Selling Treasuries: https://bit.ly/3yezqrV
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

----EP. 93c REFERENCES----
The Contraction Is Over, Which Means The Hard Part Only Begins
NBER Business Cycle FAQ: https://bit.ly/2TQqIkM

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "MUNEY" by Beiba from Epidemic Sound.

What FRONTLINE got SO wrong about the Fed Jul 26, 2021

Show notes

FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering big banks, big business and Wall Street with easy money, which reached neither the real economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former.

----SEE EPISODE 92-----
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----HEAR EPISODE 92----
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP. 92 TOPICS--------
00:00:10 Frontline: the Fed is pumping billions of dollars into the financial system.
00:01:46 Frontline: the Fed is powerful and misunderstood.
00:04:58 Frontline: speculators crashed the system and the Fed rescued it.
00:12:24 Frontline: the Fed came up with the idea of quantitative easing.
00:14:38 Frontline: QE's purpose was to lower interest rates.
00:18:14 Frontline: QE was to increase credit to the economy.
00:20:33 Frontline: QE was a new experiment because Fed officials said it was.
00:23:48 Frontline: QE flooded the economy with easy money.
00:26:40 Frontline: QE powered the stock market.
00:33:40 Frontline: QE disconnected stocks from the real economy.
00:35:42 Frontline: QE didn't fix the economy because banks didn't allow it.
00:40:50 Frontline: QE2 was necessary because the Tea Party hobbled Congress.
00:47:10 Frontline: QE caused inequality because money went to banks.
00:59:33 Frontline: Wall St. was so addicted to QE it had a taper tantrum in 2013.
01:03:19 Frontline: QE helped the rich. KASHKARI: We were helping the people.
01:10:17 Frontline: QE gave easy money to corporates who used it to buy back company stock.
01:17:51 Frontline: Shadow banks gorged on easy money, increasing system fragility.
01:22:31 Frontline: In 2020 the Fed saved the world from a true depression.
01:26:01 Frontline: The Fed saved risky parts of the financial system, like junk bonds.
01:30:56 Concluding thoughts on the Frontline episode, central banking and the media.

----EP. 92 REFERENCES----
FRONTLINE The Power of the Fed: https://youtu.be/9RbL8lTsITY
The Power of the Fed (transcript) : https://to.pbs.org/3zC3HBn
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Electro Animal" by Oh the City from Epidemic Sound.

Glowing Orange: Repo Market Collateral Rumble Jul 25, 2021

Show notes

Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020.

----SEE EPISODE #91----
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----HEAR EPISODE #91---
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP #91 TOPICS-------
01:53 Montana Senator Daines asked a Jeff-Snider-question to Jerome Powell in testimony.
05:02 Jerome Powell stated the Fed is focusing on the [dead] Federal Funds rate / range. WHY?!
06:29 In later testimony Powell changes his mind from "too much cash" to "not little collateral"
11:11 The NYFed notices that most repo transactions take place very early in the morning. Why?
13:39 Early morning collateral scrambles? The repo market? These took place in March 2020.
17:53 The NYFed offers several other reasons for the scramble: fees and liquidity.
19:07 The NYFed notes that more trades are taking place pre-market (to preempt the scramble?)
20:27 Monday, July 19 UST Bond yields dropped - but that was not a Jeff Snider "collateral day"
23:32 Tuesday, July 20 UST Bill yields traced out a fang-like drop in an early morning scramble
25:25 Show Conclusion: collateral scrambles are not rainbow/unicorn-reflationary phenomena

----EP #91 REFERENCES---
Lower Yields And (fewer) Bills: https://bit.ly/3BDZSxi
Why Don't Bonds Reflect CPI Alarm About Inflation?: https://bit.ly/3kMx2oq
Sorry, One More On Bills: Today A Really Good Example of All The Things We’ve Been Focused On Lately: https://bit.ly/3i20FAo
Intraday Timing of General Collateral Repo Markets: https://nyfed.org/2VbxIZv
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Night Driver" by Ballpoint and Cushy from Epidemic Sound.

Interview-Professor Samuel Williamson: What is that Thing's Value Today? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 90] Jul 22, 2021

Show notes

Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwise, like a recent NY Times article, your worth may be off by a factor of 20!!!!

--------EP. 90 REFERENCES--------
Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD
Measuring Worth Twitter: https://bit.ly/3BuZotf
Measuring Worth Blog: https://bit.ly/3rqyz4R

NY Times Tulsa Article: https://nyti.ms/3eKKDIR
National Geographic Tulsa Article: https://on.natgeo.com/3izkL41

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

---------HEAR IT----------
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EPISODE #90 TOPICS----
0:00:00 The NYTimes says the 1921 Tulsa Race Riot cost $27M. And Professor Williamson? $534m.
0:06:24 Introducing Professor Samuel H. Williamson
0:09:21 At what point does using "CPI" to value something in the past stop making sense?
0:11:25 George Washington's nephew asked to borrow $1,000 in 1800 - how much is that worth now?
0:16:03 Why does the mainstream press continue to use woefully inadequate estimates of worth?
0:16:38 How does one select the correct measure of present worth for a historical value?
0:20:45 What does Professor Williamson think about the current "transitory" inflation debate?
0:29:41 Is the CPI a good, best effort measure of inflation in the United States?
0:31:53 Are alternative measures of inflation better than the CPI?
0:36:06 Mainstream economic data implies a preciseness that is illusory.
0:38:56 The headlines in the media are merely the surface of deeper, complex concepts.
0:40:26 A real price value of the Empire State Building doesn't tell us what it is worth today.
0:44:26 MeasuringWorth has data for the US, UK, Spain, Australia, gold, silver, stocks, etc.
0:47:48 Is their a pension crisis?

---------WHO-----------
Samuel H. Williamson, cofounder / president of MeasuringWorth, cofounder of The Cliometric Society, creator of EH.net and Professor of Economics, Emeritus, from Miami University with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski. Podcast intro/outro is "Mama's Woogie Mojo" by Wendy Marcini at Epidemic Sound. Art by David Parkins.

Light at the End of the Tunnel Jul 19, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next.

PART 02: The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren't enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there aren't enough (euro)dollars in the world. A lower RRR is a warning for the whole world.

PART 03: El Salvador announced its crypto intentions seemingly out of the blue. But a closer look reveals the nation had run dangerously short of (euro)dollars in early 2021. It went to the IMF for a bailout. Now it heads to the crypto world for one. Just like people did in the 14th-century. Wait, what?!

----SEE EPISODE #89----
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----HEAR EPISODE #89---
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP #89a REFERENCES---
Powell Admits RRP and Collateral Scarcity, Still Unaware Of What It Means: https://bit.ly/3hK2dP9
To This Day, the World Still Thinks It Was About QE: https://bit.ly/3zbSS8V
The China of Today Seeks Nothing But Its Own Terms: https://bit.ly/3ks2qII

----EP #89b REFERENCES---
How Do You Spell Escalating? C-H-I-N-A-R-R-R: https://bit.ly/3kzlOmS
A Practical History of Financial Markets: https://www.didaskoeducation.org/

----EP #89c REFERENCES---
Bitcoin, El Salvador, And…The Eurodollar’s Ghost: https://bit.ly/3hIom0b
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Neon Raceway" by ELFL from Epidemic Sound.

Götterdämmerung Jul 12, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there's a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it's not great news?

PART 02: The yields on German sovereign bonds began to tumble in May - now we know why. German Factory Orders and Industrial Production delivered lousy results that month. Germany is an export power so these negatives say a lot about the global customer - that's us.

PART 03: A review of US, Chinese and global purchasing manager indices for manufacturing and services shows just a few too many "not great" readings. Not necessarily bad but within the context of HUGE 'money printing' and GIGA deficit blowouts shouldn't the economy be rip-roaring?

----SEE EPISODE #88----
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

----HEAR EPISODE #88---
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----EP #88 REFERENCES----
Eurodollar Curve Quirk Trivia, But Not Trivial To Anti-Inflation: https://bit.ly/2UFv51P
Bond Reversal In Japan, But Pay Attention To It In Germany: https://bit.ly/2VvCa5J
ISM’s Nasty Little Surprise Isn’t Actually A Surprise: https://bit.ly/3k2Y1LU
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "So Casual" by Tigerblood Jewel from Epidemic Sound.

Reading Jeff Snider on the Fed's Not-Hot Dot-Plot Jul 02, 2021

Show notes

Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on the the 'big news' about the 'hawkish' new Fed forecast implying economic recovery championed by the business press while at the same time an underlying liquidity reading (RRP) glows orange. A warning. And a reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Strolling with You" by John Runefelt at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
The Dots Are On the Move, But So Are the Dot Spoilers: https://bit.ly/360hjJM
Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: https://bit.ly/3jDOLxV

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Jeff Snider on Central Bankers Having No New Ideas Jun 30, 2021

Show notes

Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observed are INTANGIBLE. Sweden's Riksbank observes collateral shortages. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Steak Frites" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Because Central Bankers Have No Clue What Else To Do: https://bit.ly/3xXInFx
The Liquidity of the Government Bond Market – What Impact Does Quantitative Easing Have? Evidence from Sweden: https://bit.ly/3w8iWjm

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Reading Jeff Snider on Trouble Ahead Jun 28, 2021

Show notes

Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on why inflation is unwelcome directly and welcome indirectly. Also, economic depression and hopelessness have struck the United States many times. A review of contemporary accounts of despair and hope about the future from the 19th and 20th centuries. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Nocturnal Jam" by Sarah, the Illstrumentalist at Epidemic Sound.

----------WHAT----------
Growing Indications There's More Trouble Ahead: https://bit.ly/35XF1Xc

----------WHERE----------
Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Emil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
David's Art: https://davidparkins.com/

The Bond Market Foreshadows Jun 23, 2021

Show notes

PART 01: After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again.

PART 02: How is it possible 14 years of data shows the Federal Reserve FLAILING ABOUT trying to raise or lower bond yields with MASSIVE purchases of securities via quantitative easing? Because they were 'massive'. The CENTRAL BANK IS NOT CENTRAL to money. The bond market is.

PART 03: The multi-year benchmark revisions to Retail Sales and Industrial Production reveal - Surprise! - the economy was much worse than initially reported. But guess who wasn't surprised? The bond market.

---------SEE IT-----------
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

--------REFERENCES--------
The FOMC Accidentally Exposes Itself (Reverse Repo-style): https://bit.ly/3zCfXTe
79a Warning: the Fed's Reverse Repo Program Surges!: https://youtu.be/9VqAB07ny4w
Upcoming Bill Cliff Refunding Recalls Rerun Reverse Repo: https://bit.ly/3j59E4P
Overnight RRP Operations as a Monetary Policy Tool: https://bit.ly/2TN1XFr
No Reason To Toss Out Low Rates In The Inflation Debate: The Repo Rat Rate Fallacy: https://bit.ly/3wKjjS8
60a Quantitative Easing: 20-Year Anniversary!: https://youtu.be/9eTqYTP0Vqo
Yields, Not Dots; Another Example of Why Inflation Had(s) No Chance: https://bit.ly/3cUi8YC
More Than A Benchmark Peeve: https://bit.ly/3vGaWG0

---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Purist" by Ballpoint at Epidemic Sound.

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected