Dwarkesh Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Lars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high Jan 09, 2023

Show notes

One of my best episodes ever. Lars Doucet is the author of Land is a Big Deal, a book about Georgism which has been praised by Vitalik Buterin, Scott Alexander, and Noah Smith. Sam Altman is the lead investor in his new startup, ValueBase.

Talking with Lars completely changed how I think about who creates value in the world and who leeches off it.

We go deep into the weeds on Georgism:

* Why do even the wealthiest places in the world have poverty and homelessness, and why do rents increase as fast as wages?

* Why are land-owners able to extract the profits that rightly belong to labor and capital?

* How would taxing the value of land alleviate speculation, NIMBYism, and income and sales taxes?

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow Lars on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Intro

(00:01:11) - Georgism

(00:03:16) - Metaverse Housing Crises

(00:07:10) - Tax Leisure?

(00:13:53) - Speculation & Frontiers

(00:24:33) - Social Value of Search

(00:33:13) - Will Georgism Destroy The Economy?

(00:38:51) - The Economics of San Francisco

(00:43:31) - Transfer from Landowners to Google?

(00:46:47) - Asian Tigers and Land Reform

(00:51:19) - Libertarian Georgism

(00:55:42) - Crypto

(00:57:16) - Transitioning to Georgism

(01:02:56) - Lars's Startup & Land Assessment

(01:15:12) - Big Tech

(01:20:50) - Space

(01:23:05) - Copyright

(01:25:02) - Politics of Georgism

(01:33:10) - Someone Is Always Collecting Rents

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century Jan 03, 2023

Show notes

Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes.

We discuss:

* Are we living in the most important century?

* Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016?

* How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics?

Highly recommend!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:00:58) - The Most Important Century

(0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time

(0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution

(0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario

(0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks

(1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points

(1:06:04) - Predicting the Future

(1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve

(1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment

(1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics

(1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism

(1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance

(1:46:56) - Career Advice

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Bethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries Dec 21, 2022

Show notes

This was one of my favorite episodes ever.

Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron’s earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there.

We discuss:

* The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX,

* How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk),

* What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis,

* Why there’s too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers,

* And why history keeps repeating itself.

McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here) and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform.

Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps

(0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over?

(0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers

(0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary?

(0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture

(0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking

(0:37:00) - FTX Mafia?

(0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big?

(0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie

(0:49:25) - The Big Picture

(1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated?

(1:03:40) - Rating Agencies

(1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud

(1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive?

(1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture Thinkers

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy Dec 15, 2022

Show notes

Nadia Asparouhova is currently researching what the new tech elite will look like at nadia.xyz. She is also the author of Working in Public: The Making and Maintenance of Open Source Software.

We talk about how:

* American philanthropy has changed from Rockefeller to Effective Altruism

* SBF represented the Davos elite rather than the Silicon Valley elite,

* Open source software reveals the limitations of democratic participation,

* & much more.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:00:26) - SBF was Davos elite

(0:09:38) - Gender sociology of philanthropy

(0:16:30) - Was Shakespeare an open source project?

(0:22:00) - Need for charismatic leaders

(0:33:55) - Political reform

(0:40:30) - Why didn’t previous wealth booms lead to new philanthropic movements?

(0:53:35) - Creating a 10,000 year endowment

(0:57:27) - Why do institutions become left wing?

(1:02:27) - Impact of billionaire intellectual funding

(1:04:12) - Value of intellectuals

(1:08:53) - Climate, AI, & Doomerism

(1:18:04) - Religious philanthropy

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism Dec 01, 2022

Show notes

Perhaps the most interesting episode so far.

Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech.

He explains:

* What happened at FTX

* How drugs have induced past financial bubbles

* How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion

* Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed

* Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ

* & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination and recognition

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps:

(0:00:50) - What the hell happened at FTX?

(0:07:03) - How SBF Faked Being a Genius:

(0:12:23) - Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles

(0:17:12) - On Founder Physiognomy

(0:21:02) - Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids

(0:30:35) - Where are all the Caro-level Biographers?

(0:39:03) - Where are today's Great Founders?

(0:48:29) - Micro Writing -> Macro Understanding

(0:51:48) - Elon's Twitter Takeover

(1:00:50) - Does Big Tech & West Have Great People?

(1:11:34) - Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism

(1:17:17) - What Great Founders Have In Common

(1:19:56) - Thinkers vs. Analyzers

(1:25:40) - Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Edward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work Nov 28, 2022

Show notes

Edward Glaeser is the chair of the Harvard department of economics, and the author of the best books and papers about cities (including Survival of the City and Triumph of the City).

He explains why:

* Cities are resilient to terrorism, remote work, & pandemics,

* Silicon Valley may collapse but the Sunbelt will prosper,

* Opioids show UBI is not a solution to AI

* & much more!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Mars, Terrorism, & Capitals

(0:06:32) - Decline, Population Collapse, & Young Men

(0:14:44) - Urban Education

(0:18:35) - Georgism, Robert Moses, & Too Much Democracy?

(0:25:29) - Opioids, Automation, & UBI

(0:29:57) - Remote Work, Taxation, & Metaverse

(0:42:29) - Past & Future of Silicon Valley

(0:48:56) - Housing Reform

(0:52:32) - Europe’s Stagnation, Mumbai’s Safety, & Climate Change

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Kenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York? Nov 08, 2022

Show notes

I had a fascinating discussion about Robert Moses and The Power Broker with Professor Kenneth T. Jackson.

He's the pre-eminent historian on NYC and author of Robert Moses and The Modern City: The Transformation of New York.

He answers:

* Why are we so much worse at building things today?

* Would NYC be like Detroit without the master builder?

* Does it take a tyrant to stop NIMBY?

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) Preview + Intro

(0:11:13) How Moses Gained Power

(0:18:22) Moses Saved NYC?

(0:27:31) Moses the Startup Founder?

(0:32:34) The Case Against Moses Highways

(0:50:30) NIMBYism

(1:02:44) Is Progress Cyclical

(1:11:13) Friendship with Caro

(1:19:50) Moses the Longtermist?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Brian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review Oct 27, 2022

Show notes

It was a pleasure to welcome Brian Potter on the podcast! Brian is the author of the excellent Construction Physics blog, where he discusses why the construction industry has been slow to industrialize and innovate.

He explains why:

Construction isn’t getting cheaper and faster,

“Ugly” modern buildings are simply the result of better architecture,

China is so great at building things,

Saudi Arabia’s Line is a waste of resources,

Environmental review makes new construction expensive and delayed

and much much more!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex). Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Austin Vernon about (Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha).

Timestamps

(0:00) - Why Saudi Arabia’s Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist

(06:54) - Designer Clothes & eBay Arbitrage Adventures

(10:10) - Unique Woes of The Construction Industry

(19:28) - The Problems of Prefabrication

(26:27) - If Building Regulations didn’t exist…

(32:20) - China’s Real Estate Bubble, Unbound Technocrats, & Japan

(44:45) - Automation and Revolutionary Future Technologies

(1:00:51) - 3D Printer Pessimism & The Rising Cost of Labour

(1:08:02) - AI’s Impact on Construction Productivity

(1:17:53) - Brian Dreams of Building a Mile High Skyscraper

(1:23:43) - Deep Dive into Environmentalism and NEPA

(1:42:04) - Software is Stealing Talent from Physical Engineering

(1:47:13) - Gaps in the Blog Marketplace of Ideas

(1:50:56) - Why is Modern Architecture So Ugly?

(2:19:58) - Advice for Aspiring Architects and Young Construction Physicists

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues Oct 20, 2022

Show notes

It was a fantastic pleasure to welcome Bryan Caplan back for a third time on the podcast! His most recent book is Don't Be a Feminist: Essays on Genuine Justice.

He explains why he thinks:

- Feminists are mostly wrong,

- We shouldn’t overtax our centi-billionaires,

- Decolonization should have emphasized human rights over democracy,

- Eastern Europe shows that we could accept millions of refugees.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

More really cool guests coming up; subscribe to find out about future episodes!

You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex), Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).

Timestamps

(00:12) - Don’t Be a Feminist

(16:53) - Western Feminism Ignores Infanticide

(19:59) - Why The Universe Hates Women

(32:02) - Women's Tears Have Too Much Power

(45:40) - Bryan Performs Standup Comedy!

(51:02) - Affirmative Action is Philanthropic Propaganda

(54:13) - Peer-effects as the Only Real Education

(58:24) - The Idiocy of Student Loan Forgiveness

(1:07:57) - Why Society is Becoming Mentally Ill

(1:10:50) - Open Borders & the Ultra-long Term

(1:14:37) - Why Cowen’s Talent Scouting Strategy is Ludicrous

(1:22:06) - Surprising Immigration Victories

(1:36:06) - The Most Successful Revolutions

(1:54:20) - Anarcho-Capitalism is the Ultimate Government

(1:55:40) - Billionaires Deserve their Wealth

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex Sep 28, 2022

Show notes

It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen. His most recent book is Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World.

We discuss:

- how sex is more pessimistic than he is,

- why he expects society to collapse permanently,

- why humility, stimulants, & intelligence are overrated,

- how he identifies talent, deceit, & ambition,

- & much much much more!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

You may also enjoy my interviews of Bryan Caplan (about mental illness, discrimination, and poverty), David Deutsch (about AI and the problems with America’s constitution), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).

Timestamps

(0:00) -Did Caplan Change On Education?

(1:17) - Travel vs. History

(3:10) - Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?

(6:02) - What Does Talent Correlate With?

(13:00) - Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits

(19:20) - How does Education affect Talent?

(24:34) - Scouting Talent

(33:39) - Money, Deceit, and Emergent Ventures

(37:16) - Building Writing Stamina

(39:41) - When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?

(43:51) - Spotting Talent (Counter)signals