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    Science

    Dwarkesh Podcast

    Deeply researched interviews

    www.dwarkesh.com

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    Copyright: © Dwarkesh Patel

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    Latest Episodes:
    Andy Matuschak — The reason most learning tools fail Jul 12, 2023
    Show notes

    A few weeks ago, I sat beside Andy Matuschak to record how he reads a textbook.

    Even though my own job is to learn things, I was shocked with how much more intense, painstaking, and effective his learning process was.

    So I asked if we could record a conversation about how he learns and a bunch of other topics:

    * How he identifies and interrogates his confusion (much harder than it seems, and requires an extremely effortful and slow pace)

    * Why memorization is essential to understanding and decision-making

    * How come some people (like Tyler Cowen) can integrate so much information without an explicit note taking or spaced repetition system.

    * How LLMs and video games will change education

    * How independent researchers and writers can make money

    * The balance of freedom and discipline in education

    * Why we produce fewer von Neumann-like prodigies nowadays

    * How multi-trillion dollar companies like Apple (where he was previously responsible for bedrock iOS features) manage to coordinate millions of different considerations (from the cost of different components to the needs of users, etc) into new products designed by 10s of 1000s of people.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    To see Andy’s process in action, check out the video where we record him studying a quantum physics textbook, talking aloud about his thought process, and using his memory system prototype to internalize the material.

    You can check out his website and personal notes, and follow him on Twitter.

    Cometeer

    Visit cometeer.com/lunar for $20 off your first order on the best coffee of your life!

    If you want to sponsor an episode, contact me at dwarkesh.sanjay.patel@gmail.com.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:52) - Skillful reading

    (00:02:30) - Do people care about understanding?

    (00:06:52) - Structuring effective self-teaching

    (00:16:37) - Memory and forgetting

    (00:33:10) - Andy’s memory practice

    (00:40:07) - Intellectual stamina

    (00:44:27) - New media for learning (video, games, streaming)

    (00:58:51) - Schools are designed for the median student

    (01:05:12) - Is learning inherently miserable?

    (01:11:57) - How Andy would structure his kids’ education

    (01:30:00) - The usefulness of hypertext

    (01:41:22) - How computer tools enable iteration

    (01:50:44) - Monetizing public work

    (02:08:36) - Spaced repetition

    (02:10:16) - Andy’s personal website and notes

    (02:12:44) - Working at Apple

    (02:19:25) - Spaced repetition 2


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future Jun 26, 2023
    Show notes

    The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out!

    My favorite part! And the one that had the biggest impact on my worldview.

    Here, Carl lays out how an AI takeover might happen:

    * AI can threaten mutually assured destruction from bioweapons,

    * use cyber attacks to take over physical infrastructure,

    * build mechanical armies,

    * spread seed AIs we can never exterminate,

    * offer tech and other advantages to collaborating countries, etc

    Plus we talk about a whole bunch of weird and interesting topics which Carl has thought about:

    * what is the far future best case scenario for humanity

    * what it would look like to have AI make thousands of years of intellectual progress in a month

    * how do we detect deception in superhuman models

    * does space warfare favor defense or offense

    * is a Malthusian state inevitable in the long run

    * why markets haven't priced in explosive economic growth

    * & much more

    Carl also explains how he developed such a rigorous, thoughtful, and interdisciplinary model of the biggest problems in the world.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Catch part 1 here

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - Intro

    (0:00:47) - AI takeover via cyber or bio

    (0:32:27) - Can we coordinate against AI?

    (0:53:49) - Human vs AI colonizers

    (1:04:55) - Probability of AI takeover

    (1:21:56) - Can we detect deception?

    (1:47:25) - Using AI to solve coordination problems

    (1:56:01) - Partial alignment

    (2:11:41) - AI far future

    (2:23:04) - Markets & other evidence

    (2:33:26) - Day in the life of Carl Shulman

    (2:47:05) - Space warfare, Malthusian long run, & other rapid fire


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment Jun 14, 2023
    Show notes

    In terms of the depth and range of topics, this episode is the best I’ve done.

    No part of my worldview is the same after talking with Carl Shulman. He's the most interesting intellectual you've never heard of.

    We ended up talking for 8 hours, so I'm splitting this episode into 2 parts.

    This part is about Carl’s model of an intelligence explosion, which integrates everything from:

    * how fast algorithmic progress & hardware improvements in AI are happening,

    * what primate evolution suggests about the scaling hypothesis,

    * how soon before AIs could do large parts of AI research themselves, and whether there would be faster and faster doublings of AI researchers,

    * how quickly robots produced from existing factories could take over the economy.

    We also discuss the odds of a takeover based on whether the AI is aligned before the intelligence explosion happens, and Carl explains why he’s more optimistic than Eliezer.

    The next part, which I’ll release next week, is about all the specific mechanisms of an AI takeover, plus a whole bunch of other galaxy brain stuff.

    Maybe 3 people in the world have thought as rigorously as Carl about so many interesting topics. This was a huge pleasure.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Intro

    (00:01:32) - Intelligence Explosion

    (00:18:03) - Can AIs do AI research?

    (00:39:00) - Primate evolution

    (01:03:30) - Forecasting AI progress

    (01:34:20) - After human-level AGI

    (02:08:39) - AI takeover scenarios


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Richard Rhodes — The making of the atomic bomb May 23, 2023
    Show notes

    It was a tremendous honor & pleasure to interview Richard Rhodes, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb

    We discuss

    - similarities between AI progress & Manhattan Project (developing a powerful, unprecedented, & potentially apocalyptic technology within an uncertain arms-race situation)

    - visiting starving former Soviet scientists during fall of Soviet Union

    - whether Oppenheimer was a spy, & consulting on the Nolan movie

    - living through WW2 as a child

    - odds of nuclear war in Ukraine, Taiwan, Pakistan, & North Korea

    - how the US pulled of such a massive secret wartime scientific & industrial project

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - Oppenheimer movie

    (0:06:22) - Was the bomb inevitable?

    (0:29:10) - Firebombing vs nuclear vs hydrogen bombs

    (0:49:44) - Stalin & the Soviet program

    (1:08:24) - Deterrence, disarmament, North Korea, Taiwan

    (1:33:12) - Oppenheimer as lab director

    (1:53:40) - AI progress vs Manhattan Project

    (1:59:50) - Living through WW2

    (2:16:45) - Secrecy

    (2:26:34) - Wisdom & war


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality Apr 06, 2023
    Show notes

    For 4 hours, I tried to come up reasons for why AI might not kill us all, and Eliezer Yudkowsky explained why I was wrong.

    We also discuss his call to halt AI, why LLMs make alignment harder, what it would take to save humanity, his millions of words of sci-fi, and much more.

    If you want to get to the crux of the conversation, fast forward to 2:35:00 through 3:43:54. Here we go through and debate the main reasons I still think doom is unlikely.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - TIME article

    (0:09:06) - Are humans aligned?

    (0:37:35) - Large language models

    (1:07:15) - Can AIs help with alignment?

    (1:30:17) - Society’s response to AI

    (1:44:42) - Predictions (or lack thereof)

    (1:56:55) - Being Eliezer

    (2:13:06) - Othogonality

    (2:35:00) - Could alignment be easier than we think?

    (3:02:15) - What will AIs want?

    (3:43:54) - Writing fiction & whether rationality helps you win


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence Mar 27, 2023
    Show notes

    I went over to the OpenAI offices in San Fransisco to ask the Chief Scientist and cofounder of OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, about:

    * time to AGI

    * leaks and spies

    * what's after generative models

    * post AGI futures

    * working with Microsoft and competing with Google

    * difficulty of aligning superhuman AI

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (00:00) - Time to AGI

    (05:57) - What’s after generative models?

    (10:57) - Data, models, and research

    (15:27) - Alignment

    (20:53) - Post AGI Future

    (26:56) - New ideas are overrated

    (36:22) - Is progress inevitable?

    (41:27) - Future Breakthroughs


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Nat Friedman (Github CEO) — Reading ancient scrolls, open source, & AI Mar 22, 2023
    Show notes

    It is said that the two greatest problems of history are: how to account for the rise of Rome, and how to account for her fall. If so, then the volcanic ashes spewed by Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD - which entomb the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum in South Italy - hold history’s greatest prize. For beneath those ashes lies the only salvageable library from the classical world.

    Nat Friedman was the CEO of Github form 2018 to 2021. Before that, he started and sold two companies - Ximian and Xamarin. He is also the founder of AI Grant and California YIMBY.

    And most recently, he has created and funded the Vesuvius Challenge - a million dollar prize for reading an unopened Herculaneum scroll for the very first time. If we can decipher these scrolls, we may be able to recover lost gospels, forgotten epics, and even missing works of Aristotle.

    We also discuss the future of open source and AI, running Github and building Copilot, and why EMH is a lie.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - Vesuvius Challenge

    (0:30:00) - Finding points of leverage

    (0:37:39) - Open Source in AI

    (0:40:32) - Github Acquisition

    (0:50:18) - Copilot origin Story

    (1:11:47) - Nat.org

    (1:32:56) - Questions from Twitter


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Brett Harrison — FTX US former president speaks out Mar 13, 2023
    Show notes

    I flew out to Chicago to interview Brett Harrison, who is the former President of FTX US President and founder of Architect.

    In his first longform interview since the fall of FTX, he speak in great detail about his entire tenure there and about SBF’s dysfunctional leadership. He talks about how the inner circle of Gary Wang, Nishad Singh, and SBF mismanaged the company, controlled the codebase, got distracted by media, and even threatened him for his letter of resignation.

    In what was my favorite part of the interview, we also discuss his insights about the financial system from his decades of experience in the world's largest HFT firms.

    And we talk about Brett's new startup, Architect, as well as the general state of crypto post-FTX.

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:00) - Passive investing & HFT hacks

    (0:08:30) - Is Finance Zero-Sum?

    (0:18:38) - Interstellar Markets & Periodic Auctions

    (0:23:10) - Hiring & Programming at Jane Street

    (0:32:09) - Quant Culture

    (0:42:10) - FTX - Meeting Sam, Joining FTX US

    (0:58:20) - FTX - Accomplishments, Beginnings of Trouble

    (1:08:11) - FTX - SBF's Dysfunctional Leadership

    (1:26:53) - FTX - Alameda

    (1:33:50) - FTX - Leaving FTX, SBF"s Threats

    (1:45:45) - FTX - Collapse

    (1:53:10) - FTX - Lessons

    (2:04:34) - FTX - Regulators, & FTX Mafia

    (2:15:42) - Architect.xyz

    (2:30:10) - Institutional Interest & Uses of Crypto


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Marc Andreessen — AI, crypto, 1000 Elon Musks, regrets, vulnerabilities, & managerial revolution Feb 01, 2023
    Show notes

    My podcast with the brilliant Marc Andreessen is out!

    We discuss:

    * how AI will revolutionize software

    * whether NFTs are useless, & whether he should be funding flying cars instead

    * a16z's biggest vulnerabilities

    * the future of fusion, education, Twitter, venture, managerialism, & big tech

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

    Timestamps

    (0:00:17) - Chewing glass

    (0:04:21) - AI

    (0:06:42) - Regrets

    (0:08:51) - Managerial capitalism

    (0:18:43) - 100 year fund

    (0:22:15) - Basic research

    (0:27:07) - $100b fund?

    (0:30:32) - Crypto debate

    (0:43:29) - Future of VC

    (0:50:20) - Founders

    (0:56:42) - a16z vulnerabilities

    (1:01:28) - Monetizing Twitter

    (1:07:09) - Future of big tech

    (1:14:07) - Is VC Overstaffed?


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

    Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy Jan 24, 2023
    Show notes

    Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy.

    This episode was fun and interesting throughout!

    He explains:

    * Why national IQ matters

    * How migrants bring their values to their new countries

    * Why we should have less democracy

    * How the Chinese are an unstoppable global force for free markets

    Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

    Timestamps

    (00:00:00) - Intro

    (00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes?

    (00:09:15) - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption

    (00:12:02) - 50% Open Borders?

    (00:16:54) - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists

    (00:21:39) - Innovation & Immigrants

    (00:24:53) - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?

    (00:28:54) - Let's Ignore Side Effects?

    (00:30:25) - Are Poor Countries Stuck?

    (00:32:26) - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ

    (00:39:13) - Clone a million John von Neumann?

    (00:44:39) - Genetic Selection for IQ

    (00:47:02) - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power

    (00:49:42) - EU is a force for good?

    (00:55:12) - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter?

    (00:56:19) - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem?

    (00:59:38) - Bond Holder Democracy

    (01:04:57) - Mormonism

    (01:08:52) - Garett Jones's Immigration System

    (01:10:12) - Interviewing SBF


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

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