DHUnplugged Podcast

**DHUnplugged #725: Minsky Moments** Oct 30, 2024
Yields important again – rising and worrisome.

Hedge Fund titans getting nervous – talking bout a Minsky Moment.

End of month – October is about to be in the books.

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
**DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.**

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...**

SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time.

**Warm-Up**
- Yields important again - all of a sudden
- Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment
- End of month - October is about to be in the books

**Markets**
- Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us
- Gold near highs as China and India buying
- Election Direction - putting money where mouth is...
- Consumers are happier - UMICH
- NAZ 100 - ATH?

**Yields - On the Move**

Yields On The Move

**Auto Divergence**
- GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter.
-- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50.
- This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations.
- Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action
- Big differential with stock performance over past year

GM/FORD YTD

GM/Ford Longer

**New Threshold for Capital Gains**
- Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less.
- Here is an idea - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate
--- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold.

**Consumer Sentiment**
- October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9
- Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news.
--- Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information.

**Hedge fund big boys**
- Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones
- The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher.
- Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it
- "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said."
- Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through.

**Minsky Moment Defined**
- A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.
- A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis.

**Housing Market**
- Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell last month, slowing to a pace not seen since 2010, when the U.S. was still recovering from a housing market crash.
- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday reported that existing home sales declined 1% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, which is a 3.5% drop from one year ago.

**Apple Airpods 2**
- Hearing aids and hearing testing about to be launched
- Don't know how many people would like to ear all the time - most people will think that you are rude - non-discrete
- People that need hearing aids usually are all worried that it makes them look old and like them to be hidden

**One Year Later**
- BuyBuy Baby is shutting ALL of its stores after the new owners tried to revive the business
- Now they will be online only
- Perhaps if they paid attention the the pricing of their product they would have a better shot
- Junama Stardust Collection Baby Bassinet Pram $2,500
- on Amazon: Kinder King 2 in 1 Convertible Baby Stroller, Folding High Landscape Infant Carriage, Newborn Reversible Bassinet Pram, Diaper Bag, Anti-Shock Toddler Pushchair Stroller, Dark Grey $129

**Fed contradictions - Breaking ranks**
- On CNBC last week, Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh discussed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy and its potential contradictions.
- Kevin, a former Fed Board Governor, expressed his puzzlement over the Fed's 50 basis point cut, arguing that it contradicts their previous statements about their policy.
- He criticized the Fed for not having a clear theory of inflation and for not being data-dependent.
- He also mentioned the Fed's shift in focus from core PCE to core services, excluding housing, and the importance of wages.
- Despite the dissent at the last meeting, Kevin maintained that the Fed members he knows do not play politics.

**Earnings to Note**
-- American Airlines third-quarter earnings and forecast for the last three months of the year topped analysts' estimates.
-----**Earnings per share:** 30 cents adjusted vs. 16 cents **Revenue:** $13.65 billion vs. $13.49 billion expected
-- Nvidia supplier SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit, beating expectations
----- **Operating profit:** 7.03 trillion won ($5.08 billion) vs. 6.8 trillion won **Revenue:** 17.57 trillion won ($12.7 billion) vs. 18.11 trillion won
- **Tesla** shares jump on profit beat, Musk’s prediction of at least 20% ‘vehicle growth’ next year
-----**Earnings per share:** 72 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected **Revenue:** $25.18 billion vs. $25.37 billion expected
-- **IBM Earnings**
---- IBM missed analysts' estimates for third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, hurt by weakness in its consulting segment as businesses cut back on discretionary expenses, coupled with declines in the infrastructure business.

**More Tesla**
- Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier.
- Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago.
- Profit margins were bolstered by $739 million in automotive regulatory credit revenue during the quarter
- Analysts now focusing on Gross Margins - as they were the shiny spot for the quarter
- Automotive revenues stalled for years - but energy generation picking up
**- CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year, due to “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.”**
-------Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a total increase in deliveries next year of about 15% to 2.04 million.
- - Shares were squeezed up 20% at one point after the print

Tesla Revenues

**Chip-Gate**
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company notified the U.S. that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei product after tech research firm TechInsights took apart the product, a person familiar with the matter said, revealing a possible violation of export restrictions on the Chinese company.
- The teardown was of Huawei's Ascend 910B, another source said. The 910B is viewed as the most advanced AI chip available from a Chinese company. The first source would not identify the item, but said the TSMC chip was one within a multi-chip system.

**World Series**
-Tickets for the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be the most expensive ever. The average price for a ticket on the secondary market is around $1,703, which is more than double the average price for the 2023 World Series. The cheapest tickets for Game 1 were $977 for seats in the right field bleachers
- Some seats are aaid to be going for $20,000

**Fun! BBall**
- Went to the opening game of the Heat - Pat Riley dedication of the Court
- LeBron James and his son Bronny became the first father-son duo to play together in a regular season NBA game on Tuesday as the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in their season opener.

**In Closing...**
- Apple announces that it is testing blood-sugar app
- Looking to continue its adventure into health related apps
- No-prick technology is being tested

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

The WINNER for
The Closest to The Pin - INTEL (INTC)

**Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -**
**PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..**

**FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS**

See this week’s stock picks **HERE**

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

dh_CTP — **DHUnplugged #725: Minsky Moments** Oct 30, 2024
Yields important again – rising and worrisome.

Hedge Fund titans getting nervous – talking bout a Minsky Moment.

End of month – October is about to be in the books.

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
**DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.**

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along...**

SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time.

**Warm-Up**
- Yields important again - all of a sudden
- Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment
- End of month - October is about to be in the books

**Markets**
- Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us
- Gold near highs as China and India buying
- Election Direction - putting money where mouth is...
- Consumers are happier - UMICH
- NAZ 100 - ATH?

**Yields - On the Move**

Yields On The Move

**Auto Divergence**
- GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter.
-- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50.
- This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations.
- Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action
- Big differential with stock performance over past year

GM/FORD YTD

GM/Ford Longer

**New Threshold for Capital Gains**
- Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less.
- Here is an idea - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate
--- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold.

**Consumer Sentiment**
- October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9
- Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news.
--- Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information.

**Hedge fund big boys**
- Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones
- The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher.
- Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it
- "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said."
- Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through.

**Minsky Moment Defined**
- A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.
- A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis.

**Housing Market**
- Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell last month, slowing to a pace not seen since 2010, when the U.S. was still recovering from a housing market crash.
- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday reported that existing home sales declined 1% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, which is a 3.5% drop from one year ago.

**Apple Airpods 2**
- Hearing aids and hearing testing about to be launched
- Don't know how many people would like to ear all the time - most people will think that you are rude - non-discrete
- People that need hearing aids usually are all worried that it makes them look old and like them to be hidden

**One Year Later**
- BuyBuy Baby is shutting ALL of its stores after the new owners tried to revive the business
- Now they will be online only
- Perhaps if they paid attention the the pricing of their product they would have a better shot
- Junama Stardust Collection Baby Bassinet Pram $2,500
- on Amazon: Kinder King 2 in 1 Convertible Baby Stroller, Folding High Landscape Infant Carriage, Newborn Reversible Bassinet Pram, Diaper Bag, Anti-Shock Toddler Pushchair Stroller, Dark Grey $129

**Fed contradictions - Breaking ranks**
- On CNBC last week, Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh discussed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy and its potential contradictions.
- Kevin, a former Fed Board Governor, expressed his puzzlement over the Fed's 50 basis point cut, arguing that it contradicts their previous statements about their policy.
- He criticized the Fed for not having a clear theory of inflation and for not being data-dependent.
- He also mentioned the Fed's shift in focus from core PCE to core services, excluding housing, and the importance of wages.
- Despite the dissent at the last meeting, Kevin maintained that the Fed members he knows do not play politics.

**Earnings to Note**
-- American Airlines third-quarter earnings and forecast for the last three months of the year topped analysts' estimates.
-----**Earnings per share:** 30 cents adjusted vs. 16 cents **Revenue:** $13.65 billion vs. $13.49 billion expected
-- Nvidia supplier SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit, beating expectations
----- **Operating profit:** 7.03 trillion won ($5.08 billion) vs. 6.8 trillion won **Revenue:** 17.57 trillion won ($12.7 billion) vs. 18.11 trillion won
- **Tesla** shares jump on profit beat, Musk’s prediction of at least 20% ‘vehicle growth’ next year
-----**Earnings per share:** 72 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected **Revenue:** $25.18 billion vs. $25.37 billion expected
-- **IBM Earnings**
---- IBM missed analysts' estimates for third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, hurt by weakness in its consulting segment as businesses cut back on discretionary expenses, coupled with declines in the infrastructure business.

**More Tesla**
- Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier.
- Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago.
- Profit margins were bolstered by $739 million in automotive regulatory credit revenue during the quarter
- Analysts now focusing on Gross Margins - as they were the shiny spot for the quarter
- Automotive revenues stalled for years - but energy generation picking up
**- CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year, due to “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.”**
-------Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a total increase in deliveries next year of about 15% to 2.04 million.
- - Shares were squeezed up 20% at one point after the print

Tesla Revenues

**Chip-Gate**
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company notified the U.S. that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei product after tech research firm TechInsights took apart the product, a person familiar with the matter said, revealing a possible violation of export restrictions on the Chinese company.
- The teardown was of Huawei's Ascend 910B, another source said. The 910B is viewed as the most advanced AI chip available from a Chinese company. The first source would not identify the item, but said the TSMC chip was one within a multi-chip system.

**World Series**
-Tickets for the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be the most expensive ever. The average price for a ticket on the secondary market is around $1,703, which is more than double the average price for the 2023 World Series. The cheapest tickets for Game 1 were $977 for seats in the right field bleachers
- Some seats are aaid to be going for $20,000

**Fun! BBall**
- Went to the opening game of the Heat - Pat Riley dedication of the Court
- LeBron James and his son Bronny became the first father-son duo to play together in a regular season NBA game on Tuesday as the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in their season opener.

**In Closing...**
- Apple announces that it is testing blood-sugar app
- Looking to continue its adventure into health related apps
- No-prick technology is being tested

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

The WINNER for
The Closest to The Pin - INTEL (INTC)

**Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -**
**PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..**

**FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS**

See this week’s stock picks **HERE**

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DHUnplugged #724: MegaBuyers Revealed** Oct 23, 2024
There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks.

Yields on the rise – estimate that they could be moving up to what level?

Big tech earnings on tap – how will markets react?

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
**DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.**

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DONATIONS ?**

**Warm-Up**
- Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying
- Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal
- Musk giving away $
- E-Coli Alert

**Markets**
- Yields cranking higher - steepening means....
- A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week)
- More Tax abatements
- Markets look a little tired....

**Treasury Rates**
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.
- This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago.
- Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers

Yield Curve

**This too...**
- The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
- The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
- Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
- Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service)
- The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

**The Big Reveal**
- The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett.
- Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock
- Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt)
- Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares?

**More...**
Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks
- China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools.
- The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders.
- 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks

**Revealed - Just a quick look....**
- The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities.
- The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks.
- The Bank of Finland does invest in equities
- Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks.
- Bank of Finland buys stocks
- Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion)
- - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world.

**NO TAXES!**
- Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes
- Why not just have no taxes for everyone?
--- UPDATE: Former President Donald Trump's tax reform ideas could offer total or partial income tax exemptions to roughly 93.2 million Americans, or just under half of the U.S. electorate
---- Supposedly the income needed will come from tariffs (that is not a tax??)

**ELON**
- Elon giving away $100 to voters in PA - to sign a petition about
- "If you're a registered Pennsylvania voter, you & whoever referred you will now get $100 for signing our petition in support of free speech & right to bear arms. Earn money for supporting something you already believe in,"
- He is also gving away $1M per day
- Musk is promising to give $1 million each day to someone who signs his online petition, which reads: "The First and Second Amendments guarantee freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. By signing below, I am pledging my support for the First and Second Amendments."
- To be eligible for the $1 million, petition signers must be a registered voter and live in one of the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the America PAC website.
- IS this legal - some say sweepstakes format is good.

**CUBA**
- Cuba's national electrical grid first crashed around midday on Friday after the island's largest power plant shut down, sowing chaos and leaving around 10 million people in the dark.
- The grid has collapsed three times since, underscoring the precarious state of the country's infrastructure.
- (Only 10 million people total in Cuba - so effectively entire country is out of power)

**Some Relief?**
- Spirit Airlines (SAVE) closed at a fresh low Friday.
- After the close, just before the deadline, they were able to extended the deadline for a debt refinancing with Vias and Mastercard
- Shares up 50% on the news

**ECB Rhetoric and Rates**
- Third rate cut this year, first back-to-back cut in 13 years
- Recent economic data supports case for reduction
- Quarter-point cut lowers benchmark ECB rate to 3.25%
- High interest rates have hurt investment, economic growth
- Lagarde says still on track for "soft landing"

**META Layoffs**
- Meta is laying off employees across units including Instagram, WhatsApp and Reality Labs, the Verge reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Separately, the Financial Times reported that Meta fired another two dozen staff in Los Angeles for allegedly using their daily $25 meal credits to instead buy household items including acne pads, wine glasses and laundry detergent.
- Meta has slashed around 21,000 jobs since November 2022 to keep costs low with CEO Mark Zuckerberg calling 2023 the "Year of Efficiency".

**Chips - Taiwan Semi**
- SMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, bet on sustaining its strong growth, after reporting on Thursday a forecast-beating 54% jump in quarterly profit driven by soaring demand for chips used in artificial intelligence (AI).
- The company boosted outlook and is boldly confirming that AI investment is very real and very strong

**Starbucks Earnings**
- Starbucks projects Q4 revenue and earnings below consensus; global comps fell -7%; suspends FY25 guidance; increases quarterly dividend
- Funny - the Nike and Starbucks lovers were all over the news pumping when China announced stimulus - saying that NKE and SBUX would be direct beneficiaries
- Stock down 4% AH

**JUST IN**
- McDonald's shares down hard after hours
- Seems that the Quarter pounder is linked to e-coli outbreak
- - Interesting timing after Trump was serving just a couple of days ago

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Announcing the WINNER for
The Closest to The Pin - INTEL (INTC)

**Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -**
**PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..**

**FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS**

See this week’s stock picks **HERE**

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DHUnplugged #723: Race To The End** Oct 16, 2024
Bulls remain in charge

Data not important – down the road all will be fine

Seasonality – Race to the End

CPI and PPI – conflicting

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
**DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.**

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

**Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter**

**Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter**

**DONATIONS ?**

This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

**Warm-Up**
- Bulls remain in charge
- Data not important - down the road all will be fine
- Seasonality - Race to the End
- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
- Musk pulls a fast one

**Markets**
- CPI and PPI - conflicting
- Bank earnings - so far so good
- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

**Economics This Week**
- Import and Export Prices
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed
- Industrial Production
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits

**Of Interest:**
NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.
- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

**Recession - No Says Goldman**
- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

**Seasonality - The Race until the end**
- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
- End of year from here favors the bulls
- Could have a few complications with the election right in between but electoral promises will be helpful for markets

**Markets Worried?**
- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

**Fed Powers**
- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

**ELON - Pulling a fast one**
- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
- Isn't that fraud?

**Example of promises hitting the wires**
- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

**Consumer Confidence**
- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

**JPM Earnings**
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
- Official: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion

**Other Banks:**
- Wells Fargo also reported better-than-expected earnings, with a notable increase in net interest income. The bank reported earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $20.37 billion, showing a 2% decline in revenue compared to last year. Net income dropped 11% year-over-year to $5.1 billion?
- BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are among other financial heavyweights that released their results today and did well.

**Eli Lilly**
- GLP1 weight loss meds come off the short supply list by the company
- FDA takes off too - which means compounding will not be available for this drug (Zepbound - Tirzepatide )
- Compounding companies sue the FDA
- Less than a week later, the FDA is reconsidering allowing compounding companies to continue production
- WAIT - Doesn't Lilly have a patent until 2036?

**Tesla Robo-Taxi Day - Follow Up**
- DUD - promises and nothing except a car growth no steering wheel or driver's cockpit (as we predicted)
- Stock down 8% the next day as analysts seem to be getting bored with the story.

**Boeing Follow Up**
- Now the company - (employees still on strike) - laying off 10% of their employees - 17,000
- If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings and join junk bond indexes, flooding the high-yield market with a record volume of new debt to absorb.
- S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production.

**Social Security Recipients**
- The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% the cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.
- TIPs, SS payments

**CPI and PPI**
- The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), leaving it up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.5% in August.
- The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.2% in August.

CPI YoY

**China**
- China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.
- Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%.
- Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.

**Nuclear**
- "NEW CLEAR ENERGY"
- Alphabet will support construction of 7 smaller US nuclear power reactors to help power artificial intelligence, according to WSJ
- “We believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI,” Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate at Google, said on a call with reporters. “The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that’s more around the clock.”
- potential related stocks: **VST, NLR, CCJ, SMR**

**Interesting**
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued to increase its stake in SiriusXM now owning 32% of the New York-based satellite radio company.
- The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate purchased roughly 3.6 million shares for about $87 million in separate transactions Wednesday through Friday, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday.

**Kroger Again**
- Announcing additional 25,000 hires for end of year holiday expectations
- Kroger Owns:
---Supermarkets – Kroger, Ralphs, Dillons, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, QFC, City Market, Owen’s, Jay C, Pay Less, Baker’s, Gerbes, Harris Teeter, Pick ‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s
- Multi-department stores – Fred Meyer
--- Dillons Marketplace, Fry’s Marketplace, King Soopers Marketplace, Kroger Marketplace, Smith’s Marketplace
-- - Price-impact warehouse stores – Food 4 Less, Foods Co

**Bankruptcy and Closings**
- Wholesale hardware supplier True Value has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is planning to sell by the end of the year to rival Do It Best.
- Nearly 450 7-Eleven stores across North America are closing for underperforming, according to the company.

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**DHUnplugged #722: Who Cares?** Oct 09, 2024
Does anyone care about the data? Does the Data Matta?

Port Strike ENDED – for now

Hurricane Milton – Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida…

Employment Report Update

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Reminder: Intel CTP is open!

**Warm-Up**
- Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta?
- Port Strike ENDED - for now
- Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida...
- Employment Report

**Markets**
-Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares?
- Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move
- Yields moving higher
- Robotaxi Day!

**Want to Bet?**
- A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections.
- This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap
- Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments.
- Thoughts?

**Hurricane Milton**
- Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area
- Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD
- Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021)
- Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict
-- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil

**All Over**
- Strike OVER!
- Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977
- Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39.
- NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space.

**Budget Deficit - No One Cares**
- The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
- The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.
- Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent).
- Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023.
- Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent).
- The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion).
- Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion.

**Pfizer**
- Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely.
- The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019.

**Seriously?**
- Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher.
- In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.”

**Employment Report**
- Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September
- Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year
- Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours
- Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..

**Fed Move**
- After employment report there was a realization that we may need to consider fewer rate cuts
- (It is amazing that there will be any after that report)
- Chance of 0.25% rate cut 86% - before was higher chance of bigger cut.

**EuroZone Flation**
- Euro zone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, coming in below the European Central Bank's 2% target, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.
- The core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7%. It was forecast to remain unchanged from the August reading of 2.8%.

**Tesla Robo-Taxi Day?**
- Tesla has been promoting their upcoming “Robotaxi Day” presentation, set for October 10 at Warner Brothers Studios in Los Angeles. Delayed from August
- According to most reports, There’s one big problem. Tesla doesn’t have a robotaxi system. It’s not even close.
- What will they show? FSD with no wheel or pedals?
--- Or will there be a mssove suprise in store for all of us?

**Boeing**
- S&P places Boeing Co. ratings, including its 'BBB-' issuer credit rating, on CreditWatch Negative on strike-related financial risk

**China's Stimulus - Bulls on it**
- Now there is speculation that the big push by China will help beleaguered names like Starbucks and Nike
- Bulls are making up a story to try to get these names going again

Hang Seng

**CHINA - One Day Later**
- China state planner lays out further actions to boost economy but no new plans for major stimulus
- FXI and MCHI ETF Down 10-11% (Hang Seng)
- China A Shares - Up 10% on the open, but faded throughout the day as not NEW stimulus offered.

**Samsung**
- South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics on Tuesday reported that it expects worse-than-expected profit for the third quarter.
- In guidance released Tuesday, the world’s top memory chip maker said operating profit for the quarter ending September is projected to be around 9.10 trillion won, marking a 274% surge from last year’s 2.43 trillion Korean won. However, the figure missed LSEG expectations.
- “The company needs to remain flexible about its memory supply control, since the downfall of conventional DRAM will likely hurt Samsung more than its smaller rivals,” Macquarie Equity Research analysts said in a recent note.

**Jeans - Not all styles working**
- Levi Strauss & Co - their overall business is being dragged down by its Dockers brand
- Sales at Levi's brand were up 5% during its fiscal third quarter — the biggest gain in two years
- Stock was down 8% on the news
- During the quarter, sales at Dockers were down 15% to $73.7 million while Beyond Yoga, the buzzy athleisure brand it acquired in 2021, saw sales grow 19% to $32.2 million.
- Work/Life balance leaning toward self enrichment?

**Pepsi**
- PepsiCo on Tuesday lowered its full-year outlook for organic revenue after its second straight quarter of weaker-than-expected sales.
- Earnings per share: $2.31 adjusted vs. $2.29 expected
- Revenue: $23.32 billion vs. $23.76 billion expected
- Shares have been on a trend lower for a while - so this as seen as buying opportunity

**Still In The News**
- Nearly two years after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, a Delaware judge approved the company's reorganization plan, which involves paying out more than $14 billion to customers of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange.
- "Looking ahead, we are poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors through what will be the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate asset distribution in history," said John Ray, who took over as FTX CEO
- The company says it has collected between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion worth of property for distribution. FTX previously estimated that it owes creditors around $11.2 billion.
- The price of bitcoin is up roughly 260% since FTX's failure.

**Betting On The Election**
- Now you can do it!
- Once way: Forecast Contracts are traded via IBKR ForecastTrader --> **Example**: Cost $$0.40 for Harris - If Win you get $1.00)
- Seems that betting on political election outcomes is legal

**Red Lobster Autopsy**
- It sounds like a shrimp-ly irresistible offer, but Red Lobster’s $20 endless shrimp deal was allegedly the main suspect in the chain’s bankruptcy filing earlier this year, the new CEO said in a recent interview.
- The Los Angeles Times previously reported how some patrons took to social media to brag about how many shrimp they were able to scarf down, including one woman who said she ate 108 shrimp during a four-hour meal.
- $20 all you can eat shrimp

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**DHUnplugged #721: Strike That!** Oct 02, 2024
Bulls and Bears – (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear – will be interesting divergence)

End of the Month – End of The Quarter

Seasonality features the Bulls

Fed Limericks!

NEW CTP ANNOUNCED!

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**Warm-Up**
- Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)
- Strike Update - could be an issue
- Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran
- VP Debate tonight

**Markets**
- End of the Month - End of The Quarter
- Seasonality features the Bulls
- Good quarter - setting up for more gains?
- Question - Capital Gains??
- Inflation (PCE) Update

--- Fed Limericks ....And another AI generated CoverArt - what do you think?

**ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC**

**Market Selling Off**
- Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern
- VIX popped over 20 for a minute
- Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day

**Inflation**
- Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.

Euro Cars - Not Good
--- Blaming China....
- **Stellantis** on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China
- The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year.
- Stock down 8% on the news
- UK-based **Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC** has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels.
- In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing.
- Stock down 43% YTD
- What about ***RACE***, Ford and others?

**China**
- WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998?
- Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of:
---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum.
- China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.
-------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China.
-- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing....
-- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??)

Hang Seng

**Interesting Tape**
- Headline at 11:30am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post
- Oil is steady
- Markets turn positive
- VIX falls abit
*- No fear of further escalation?*

**Asia**
- Getting weird
- Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%, Australia stocks hit fresh all-time
- The moves in Japanese markets come as investors digest Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party elections last Friday. (Surprised markets)
- Ishiba’s selection forced investors to pare positions that had been built on speculation Takaichi would become Japan’s new prime minister and encourage the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low.

**Nike**
- NIKE prelim Q1 $0.70 vs $0.52 FactSet Consensus; revs $11.59 bln vs $11.64 bln
- Stock DOWN 6% after hours
- - Withdrawing FY2025 Guideance due to CEO transition - will provide quarterly
- Could be a good candidate for turnaround that gets combined with China story??
- NIKE beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line, North America revenue down 11%

**Humana**
- Humana selling off sharply, sinking to multi-year lows, after health insurer released new 2025 Medicare Advantage offerings this morning; At about 65% of total EBITDA, Medicare Advantage insurance is company's core business, so concerns that new offerings may cut into profits may be hitting shares

**Strike Update**
- A port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico will go ahead starting on Tuesday, the International Longshoremen's Association union said
- President Joe Biden said he did not intend to intervene to prevent a walkout if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.
- What will be the impact of this... said that a 1-week strike will take 1-month to recover from...

**Speculation Time**
- What if .... Capital Gains at 28% Flat
- Bear case - end of year debacle - sell those big gainers to get ahead of the gains
- Bull case = then buy back after wash rule expires 30 days?

**Fed - Can't Stop the Jabber**
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) open to larger rate cut in November if job growth weakens faster than expected, according to Reuters

**Interference**
- You wrote an interesting piece on substack
- ***More Google-Related Election Shenanigans***
- https://dvorak.substack.com/p/more-google-related-election-shenanigans

**AI Safety Bill**
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vetoed a hotly contested artificial intelligence safety bill, after the tech industry raised objections, saying it could drive AI companies from the state and hinder innovation.
- What do we know about this?
--- Is the reason for the VETO simply money ?
- Newsom said he had asked leading experts on Generative AI to help California "develop workable guardrails" that focus "on developing an empirical, science-based trajectory analysis." He also ordered state agencies to expand their assessment of the risks from potential catastrophic events tied to AI use.

**More AI**
- OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, expects about $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue this year,
- The company generated $300 million in revenue last month, up 1,700% since the beginning of last year, and expects to bring in $11.6 billion in sales next year, according to a person close to OpenAI who asked not to be named because the numbers are confidential.
- OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, is currently pursuing a funding round that would value the company at more than $150 billion

**Along with Middle East - Now Putin Comments ...**
--- So much bad news is being ignored - sign of healthy bull market or complacency?
- President Vladimir Putin has drawn a "red line" for the United States and its allies by signalling that Moscow will consider responding with nuclear weapons if they allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles.
- Seriously?

**Deja vu**
- A Massachusetts woman pleaded guilty on Friday to running a high-end brothel network in the greater Boston area and the suburbs of Washington that served wealthy and well-connected clientele including politicians, corporate executives, lawyers and military officers.
- Han Lee appeared in Boston federal court to plead guilty to charges that she conspired to persuade, induce and entice primarily Asian women to travel to Massachusetts and Virginia to engage in prostitution and committed money laundering.
- Prosecutors say clients paid $350 to $600 per hour for sexual encounters with women featured on two websites that advertised nude models for professional photography as a front for Han Lee's prostitution business, which had operated since at least 2020.

**Wallet Voting??**
- Netflix saw a dramatic spike in cancellations after its co-founder Reed Hastings revealed he donated $7 million to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign, according to a report.
- Cancellations on the streaming platform almost tripled in the United States after Hastings made the massive donation to a super PAC supporting Harris' presidential bid, Bloomberg reported, citing the researcher Antenna.
- Supporters of former President Trump called on conservatives to cancel their subscriptions after Hastings endorsed Harris on X and revealed the large sum of his donation in July.
- Stock did not budge....

**In Closing**
- Sad day:
- Kris Kristofferson, who became one of the most influential American singer-songwriters of his time with works such as "Me and Bobby McGee," as well as becoming a successful actor, died Saturday at the age of 88, according to a family statement.
- Kristofferson was born in Brownsville, Texas, on June 22, 1936, and moved frequently because his father was a general in the Air Force. After graduating from Pomona College in California, where he played football and rugby, Kristofferson attended Oxford University on a Rhodes scholarship and then fulfilled the family tradition by joining the Army.

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ANNOUNCING THE
Closest to The Pin for - INTEL (INTC)

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**PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..**

**FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS**

The Fed tries to keep things in line,
But often they're missing the sign.
With rates up and down,
They baffle the town,
And leave markets far from divine!
JCD Score (A)

Jay Powell, he gives it a go,
But sometimes the signals are slow.
With rates up and down,
He puzzles the town,
As he loves to put on a show.
JCD Score (C)

See this week’s stock picks **HERE**

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**DHUnplugged #720: GoldyLox** Sep 25, 2024
Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)

Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast – Natural gas prices jump

COVID Shot Stocks – “fun” while it lasted

Confidence is waning…..

CHINA!

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
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**Warm-Up**
- Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)
- Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump
- COVID Stocks - "fun" while it lasted
- Confidence is waning.....
- CHINA! Bazooka Time!

**Markets**
- All-Time Highs - Same saying Goldilocks conditions
- Seasonality favors the bulls starting next quarter
- Uranium starting to move as people warming up to nuclear energy again
- Trump Stock on the move

**Need to Pick a new CTP**

**Exile**
- A leading economist in China has vanished following critical comments about President Xi Jinping‘s economic policies.
- What Happened: Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was detained after allegedly criticizing Xi in a private WeChat group. Zhu’s remarks reportedly included veiled criticisms of Xi’s leadership and comments on China’s struggling economy, reported The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
- The investigation into Zhu coincides with the Chinese Communist Party’s intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the country’s economic health. Under Xi, dissent has been increasingly punished, with critics facing imprisonment or exile.
- AH would be have cement shoes if this happened in the USA

**On The Other Hand - CHINA PROP IT UP**
- China said it will allow institutional investors to tap central bank financing for stock purchases and is weighing plans for a market stabilization fund, sparking **the biggest rally since 2020** for the nation’s beaten-down equities.
- The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities
- The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, surged 4.3% to cap its best day since July 2020. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares was up more than 5% intraday.
- MCHI up 8%, FXI up 8.5%, YINN (3X) up 25%

**M&A FOLLOW UP**
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- NEWS: Collaboration software maker Smartsheet on Tuesday announced it would be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in an all-cash deal which valued the company at $8.4 billion.

**THE FED**
- Cuts rates by 0.50%
-- Seems to have been looking to appease markets
- Initial reaction was blah... Unwinding of positions put on right before the decision
- Next day stocks soared
- “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said.
- Last time Fed cut rates was COVID days , time before that was Financial Crisis of 2008
- The federal funds rate is now a range between 4.75%-5%

**Meanwhile**
- Consumer confidence in September suffers largest decline since August 2021
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' views of the current labor market situation continued to soften and became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions -- a sentiment that could weigh on consumer spending activity.
---- The Present Situation Index dropped to 124.3 from an upwardly revised 134.6 (from 134.4) in August.
------ The Expectations Index declined to 81.7 from an upwardly revised 86.3 (from 82.5) in August.
-------Average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 5.2% from an upwardly revised 5.0% (from 4.9%) in August.

Confidence

**Boeing Playing Hardball**
- Boeing’s CFO Brian West earlier this week said the company would freeze hiring and raises to cut costs, and would let “non-essential contractors” go temporarily.
- The cost-cutting measures come after more than 30,000 Boeing machinists turned down a contract and voted to strike.
- Boeing provided a BEST AND FINAL Offer on Monday
- Boeing had offered a 25% raise and the union endorsed the tentative contract - but they wanted more like 40%

**Another Casualty**
- Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy protection in Delaware late on Tuesday, succumbing to mounting losses due to poor demand for its once popular colorful food storage containers.
- No more Tupperware parties? (Popularized in the 1950s)
- The company has $812 million in debt, much of which was purchased by distressed debt investors at a deep discount in July, according to court filings. Those new lenders had sought to use their debt position to seize Tupperware assets including its intellectual property such as its brand, pushing to the company to seek bankruptcy protection, Tupperware said.
- Is there really any intellectual property that is worth anything there with all of the other brands these days?

**Big $$$ Coming In**
- BlackRock and Microsoft plan to launch a more than $30 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure to build data centers and energy projects, the companies said on Tuesday.
- The investment vehicle, known as Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership, aims to help enhance AI supply chains and energy sourcing, BlackRock and Microsoft said.
- The partnership will mobilize up to $100 billion in total investment potential when including debt financing, the companies said.

**More Power**
- They're planning to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to power Microsoft's cloud and AI data centers
- Nuclear (something we talked about months ago that would be needed for Datacenters/AI)
- Constellation Energy (CEG) up 125% YTD gets nice boost on this news
- - Restating - Utilities are not only going up as rate have been going down......
-- -HOWEVER - After refurbishing it and *obtaining the necessary federal and state approvals*, Constellation hopes to have TMI-Unit 1 operating by 2028
- - - Planning on adding approximately 835 megawatts of carbon-free energy to the grid

**Fedex Earning**
- Abysmal - comes in way low and guidance is not good at all
- Stock drops 14%
- Trading close to no change for 2024

**M&A**
- Weird - all of a sudden lot happening at Intel
- Qualcomm approached Intel about a takeover in recent days, according to a person familiar with the matter.
--- Qualcomm for Intel - does that make sense?
-- The deal would likely face intense regulatory scrutiny, particularly from antitrust regulators, given the size and market influence of both companies.
- Intel down 50% YTD
- Company getting all sorts of deals from CHIPS Act and now
--- Apollo Global Management Inc. has offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel Corp., people familiar with the matter said, providing the chipmaker with a vote of confidence in its turnaround strategy and an alternative to a potential takeover by larger rival Qualcomm Inc.

**Drug Companies in the Crosshairs**
- The Federal Trade Commission on Friday sued three large U.S. health companies that negotiate insulin prices, arguing the drug middlemen boost their profits while “artificially” inflating costs for patients.
- The suit targets the three biggest so-called pharmacy benefit managers, UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Rx, CVS Health’s Caremark and Cigna’s Express Scripts, and their affiliated group purchasing organizations.
- The FTC may also recommend suing insulin manufacturers Eli Lilly, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk in the future.
- The PBM are going to be in trouble as these are seen as the reason for many of the massive drug price issues. (Middleman created to help with prices ended uop just making out like bandits for themselves - that will be the rationale and political take)

**DJT Stock on the Move**
- The wrong way
- New Post IPO/SPAC LOW as selling window opens (Selling restrictions lifted)
- Trump, whose stake in Trump Media is now worth roughly $1.4 billion, said on Sept. 13 he did not plan to sell his shares, turning the focus to other major stakeholders who could cash out.

**New Highs for META**
- Stock seen as a major winner from AI -
- Not because of what it can do for you - what is can do for the advertisers of META
- Up nearly 4 fold from the low in 2022

**Moderna**
- Stock in downtrend since August 2021
- Stock at sameprice as it was back in October 2020 after peaking close to $48- per share (now $64)
- What happened to the breakthroughs?
- Good lesson here...

**MPOX Update**
- Nearly 30,000 suspected mpox cases have been reported in Africa so far this year, most of them in Democratic Republic of Congo where tests have run out, the World Health Organization said on Monday.
- Stocks related GOVX, SIGA, EBS (Stocks still stuck in nowhereville)

**Home Prices**
- Hit an ATH - Case Shiller
- Pace of growth slowing

**A Few Thousand Days**
- Open AI CEO Sam Altman says the world could be just "a few thousand days" from creating an artificial "superintelligence."
- "This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there," Altman wrote.

DOJ on Visa
- The U.S. Justice Department on Tuesday sued Visa , the world’s biggest payments network, saying it propped up an illegal monopoly over debit payments by imposing “exclusionary” agreements on partners and smothering upstart firms.
- More than 60% of debit transactions in the U.S. run over Visa rails, helping it charge more than $7 billion annually in processing fees, according to the DOJ complaint.
-

**In Closing - NICE!**
- CEO Jensen Huang just wrapped up the sale of six million shares of the chip maker, completing a trading plan he adopted earlier in the year—and grossing more than $700 million.

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**DHUnplugged #719: DogCat Bounce?** Sep 18, 2024
Best week in a long time – markets popping!

Cats and Dogs – all anyone can talk about these days – DogCat Bounce anyone?

More back to work directives ….

Apple disappointing again.

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**Warm Up**
- Best week in a long time - markets popping!
- Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone?
- More back to work directives ....
- Apple disappointing again
- All of a sudden - Now the Biden-Harris administration

**Market Update**
- BIG week of central bank rate decisions
- Rotation - still a big item keeping markets in check
- Rates LOW - bond traders overconfident?
- Oil comes back after miserable 2 weeks
- TrumpCoin?

**Central Banks**
- The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.
- Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.
- Bank of Japan will provide its rate decision Friday
--- Markets getting a bit more volatile ahead of this Fed rate decision

**BACK TO WORK!**
- Amazon is instructing corporate staffers to spend five days a week in the office, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in a memo on Monday.
- The decision marks a significant shift from Amazon’s earlier return-to-work stance, which required corporate workers to be in the office at least three days a week. Now, the company is giving employees until Jan. 2 to start adhering to the new policy.

**One Day Later**
- Oracle provide some really nice earnings and guidance that the market loved... (Discussed last week)
- A day later:
--- Oracle now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, around $1.5 billion more than analysts had expected.
---- Capital spending also will increase.
------The company plans for over $104 billion in revenue in the 2029 fiscal year.
- Odd that this was the next day
- Stock up 55% - 2nd best of tech companies just behind Nvdia
- Larry is now 2d richest person in the world behind Elon Musk

**Economics**
- August Retail Sales 0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 1.1% from 1.0%
- August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior unrevised at 0.4%
- August Industrial Production 0.8% vs 0.1% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.6%
- August Capacity Utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 77.4% from 77.8%
--- Generally economy is speeding up again and looks like signs that manufacturing may be picking up

**More Issues**
- This is a bad apple
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a top banking regulator in the United States, said on Thursday it has issued an enforcement action against Wells Fargo due to deficiencies in its risk management practices.
- There will be no penalties - but company is still in the penalty box due to past issues

**China Apple**
- Online retailers in China have slashed the prices of Apple’s new iPhone 16 series ahead of its official release, as consumers in the world’s largest smartphone market hold out for the release of the US company’s first on-device artificial intelligence (AI) software.
- They are blaming this on the delay of any significant AI features

**Intel Gets $$$**
- The Biden-Harris Administration announced today that Intel Corporation has been awarded up to $3 bln in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Secure Enclave program. The program is designed to expand the trusted manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors for the U.S. government.
- The Secure Enclave program builds on previous projects between Intel and the Department of Defense such as Rapid Assured Microelectronics Prototypes - Commercial and State-of-the-Art Heterogeneous Integration Prototype. As the only American company that both designs and manufactures leading-edge logic chips, Intel will help secure the domestic chip supply chain and collaborate with the DoD to help enhance the resilience of U.S. technological systems by advancing secure, cutting-edge solutions.

**Apple**
- The next upgrade cycle is going to be HUGE they said
= Could be a GENERATIONAL Upgrade cycle they said
- Monday update: Apple (AAPL -3%) is exhibiting weakness today after estimated pre-orders for the newest iPhone reflect softer-than-anticipated demand. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone models last week, including the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max
- iOS 18 is now available, bringing iPhone users around the world new ways to personalize their iPhone with deeper customization to the Home Screen and Control Center; the biggest-ever redesign to Photos, making it even easier to find and relive special moments; and major enhancements to Messages and Mail. Starting next month, iOS 18 will introduce Apple Intelligence, the personal intelligence system that combines the power of generative models with personal context to deliver intelligence that is incredibly useful and relevant while protecting users' privacy and security.

**This...**
- Former President Trump on Monday is expected to announce the launch of a new cryptocurrency project that would be led by his two oldest sons.
- Trump's crypto platform will be called World Liberty Financial and will be formally unveiled at 8 p.m. ET by the former president at an event at his Mar-a-Lago residence that will be broadcast on X Spaces.
- "We're embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind," Trump said in a video posted to social media platform X on Thursday.
- The former president and his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have been promoting the project on social media in recent weeks in advance of the platform's launch
- Crypto news outlet CoinDesk obtained excerpts of a draft white paper describing the project, which noted that the former president's 18-year-old son, Barron, is listed as the project's "DeFi visionary."

**Here is the issue:**
- Genetic testing company 23andMe has agreed to pay $30 million to settle a class action lawsuit from customers impacted by a 2023 data breach when hackers accessed the personal data of millions of users on the platform.
- The complaint accused 23andMe of failing to adequately protect users' information and failing to sufficiently notify users of the breach, as well as other claims. The company denied any wrongdoing as part of the settlement agreement.
- One of reasons AH will not use this kind of service
- Get your payout of you used service and qualify!

**Workers MAD**
- Boeing's new CEO moved into his new home in Seatle a little over a month after being names CEO
- Cost $4.1M
- The home is 4,180 square feet and sits on a 9,217 square foot lot.
- Ortberg's move comes as tens of thousands of Boeing factory workers went on strike this week after 96% of union members rejected a new contractor offer.
- Workers on strike mad that since the CEO has the money to buy that big of a house - they can pony up the money to pay the increased wages that are being demanded.
- One of the main demands from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers' Union (IAM) is a 40% pay raise.
- In response: Boeing is freezing hiring and weighing temporary furloughs to cut costs as a strike by more than 30,000 workers entered its fourth day on Monday

**Home Depot**
- Home Depot is being ordered to pay nearly $2 million to settle a civil claim from California district attorneys that the company overcharged customers for products.
- According to Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón, the retailer allegedly "engaged in false advertising and unfair competition" because it charged customers prices higher than the lowest advertised or posted price.
- This type of offense, known as a "scanner violation," occurs when the price on the item or on the item’s shelf tag does not match the universal product code that's scanned at the point-of-sale device or register, according to Gascón.

**HIRING!**
- Discount grocer Aldi is boosting its staff for the holiday season with plans to hire more than 13,000 store and warehouse workers.
- Along with boosting its workforce, the grocer announced that it will continue adding new stores across the U.S. while it simultaneously prepares for the busy shopping period.
- To entice applicants, the company also announced that it's raising the national average hourly pay too.
---???? Are they expecting a rush to buy baked beans as gifts this holiday season?
-- Also, sounds good for the holiday season - truth is that they have been working on expanding footprint for some time and the hiring has nothing to do with the holidays.

**M&A**
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- The private-equity firms are discussing an offer of around $56 per share for Smartsheet, the sources said, adding that the deal could be signed in the coming weeks assuming there are no last-minute snags.
- Smartsheet is a software as a service offering for collaboration and work management, developed and marketed by Smartsheet Inc. It is used to assign tasks, track project progress, manage calendars, share documents, and manage other work, using a tabular user interface.
- Thought this was going to be a buyout candidate one day - but by a tech firm - P/E going to gut this and sell when costs under control

**Banks**
- Stress test - all pass with flying colors
- The largest U.S. banks said on Friday evening that they would increase payouts to investors in moves that were generally expected after lenders sailed through the Federal Reserve’s stress tests this week—but the firms’ capital plans remain closely watched each year.

**Good news!**
- Red Lobster exits chapter 11 bankruptcy
- The Orlando, Florida-based chain, which lost $76 million in 2023, shuttered dozens of its North American restaurants over recent months
- Red Lobster is now an independent, privately-held company with 545 restaurant locations in 44 states and four Canadian provinces.

**WIFI in The Air**
- United will start testing Starlink’s satellite Wi-Fi on its flights early next year.
- SpaceX has previously signed deals with Hawaiian Airlines and semi-private airline JSX.
- Delta and other carriers have been investing in faster inflight Wi-Fi and offering it for free.
- United Airlines said Friday that it plans to offer inflight Wi-Fi for free using Starlink from Elon Musk’s SpaceX on its hundreds of jetliners, the biggest inflight internet deal yet for the satellite service provider.

**Is this a concern?**
- Hundreds of handheld pagers exploded near simultaneously across Lebanon and in parts of Syria on Tuesday, wounding members of the militant group Hezbollah, the Iranian ambassador and dozens of other people. Officials pointed the finger at Israel in what appeared to be a sophisticated, remote attack at a time of rising tensions across the Lebanon border.
- How can these be allowed on **airplanes** if they can be remotely detonated?

**Egg Prices**
- On the rise again
- CalMaine (CALM) comes up with good earnings and outlook
- 50% increase in prices over the past year
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

**Closing - What is our bet on the Fed Decision tomorrow?**
- 0.0%
- 0.25%
- 0.50%

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**DHUnplugged #718: D’Bait** Sep 11, 2024
August ends on the high side – (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)

Rate cut bets are in place

Market very skittish – September not the best month on average

VIX hits 25 last week

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**Warm Up**
- Another Rough Start to the month
- Apple Event - market was
- Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that!
- DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule

**Market Update**
- August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)
- Rate cut bets are in place
- Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
- VIX hits 25 last week
- Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved
- YIELD CURVE UPDATE

**Big News**
- Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's
- Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened in 2001 and 2008

**Apple Event**
- Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design.
- Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area.
- The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra.
- Display will be 40% brighter.
- Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9.
- Background noise will be surprised on phone calls.
- Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them.
- Adding translate application.
-Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles.
- Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea.
- Starts at $399.
- A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday

**More Apple**
- Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland.
- The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades.
- So is this final this time?
- How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc....

**Apple Competition**
- Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per)
- Have you seen this?
- VERY COOL device

**Palantir**
- Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500
- +15% on the news

**Dell**
- Dell also is added to the S&P 500
- Etsy and American Airlines out

**Tech - Oracle Earnings**
- Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook
- Missed on EPS
- Partnering with Amazon
- The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud.
- Stock at ATH

**NVDA**
- WORST DAY EVER for a stock
- Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day.
- New DOJ probe in anti-trust case
- The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips.
- Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates.

**Best Buy**
- People are buying...
- Raising full year guidance
- Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier.
--- It is all about the expectations...

**Glasses - Again?**
- Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone
- Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology.
- This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out there right now as opposed to over the head from Meta and Apple

**Goldman Sachs**
- Goldman Sachs will post a roughly $400 million pretax hit to third-quarter results as the bank continues to unwind its ill-fated consumer business.
- Goldman is instead focusing on asset and wealth management to help drive growth.
- CEO David Solomon said Monday at a conference that by unloading Goldman's GM Card business, as well as a separate portfolio of loans, the bank would post a hit to revenues when it reports results next month.
- Stock down $20 or 4%

**Debate**
- Thoughts on if this one will **dramatically** change the race (like the last one)
- Fact checkers already in a tizzy about what to expect and how it will be spun
- Inflation and costs will be near the top
- Border security and foreign policy havd to be in the mix
- Thoughts on how this could impact markets?

**Econ**
- Payrolls - grew but less than expected
- **Unemployment** Rate dropped back to 4.2%
- The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.
- 142,000 new jobs added.
- The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.
- Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
--- CPI and PPI due Wednesday and Thursday

**China Econ**
- China on Monday reported the consumer price index rose 0.6% year on year.
- Retail sales rose by just 2.7% in July from a year ago
- Major deflationary pressure in China - total mess

**US Steel Saga**
- The Biden administration told Nippon Steel in a letter on Saturday its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry, three people said, adding to evidence the U.S. is poised to block it.
- Stock drops hard
- The deal faces opposition from numerous Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris saying on Monday she wants U.S. Steel to remain "American owned and operated." Her Republican rival Donald Trump has pledged to block the deal if elected.Oil

**OIL**
- Biden Administration buying for the SPR
- Cracked below $66 today - down from $76 end of August
- Middle East and Russia no longer a concern?
- China slowdown and global slowdown cracking commodities?
- Updated OPEC projections out today: "The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 2.0 mb/d, which is still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This minor adjustment of 80 tb/d reflects mainly actual data received year-to-date."

**NFTs**
- Crypto marketplace OpenSea has been added to the SEC's list of targets, as the regulator extends its crackdown on the sector.
- What took so long?
- The company's CEO said in a post on X on Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a Wells notice against OpenSea.
- The letter, according to the OpenSea chief, alleges that the nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, sold on its platform are securities. OpenSea is a popular platform that allows users to create, sell and buy NFTs.

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**DHUnplugged #717: FinLit Time** Sep 04, 2024
A show dedicated to the many questions of our listeners.

We focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds, contrasting and comparing the differences.

Financial Literacy is not just one month a year!

PLUS we are now on **Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts**!
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Talking Financial Literacy

We are going to discuss details of what an ETF is and the differences from those investment vehicles and mutual funds.

**ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges, holding a diversified portfolio.**

**ETFs offer instant diversification by allowing investors to buy a small slice of a variety of assets.**

**ETFs trade like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the trading day.**

**Popular for their diversification, lower costs, trading flexibility, and tax efficiency.**

**Types of ETFs include stock, bond, commodity, international, sector/thematic, and inverse/leveraged ETFs.**

**Downsides include market risk, tracking errors, liquidity issues, and the complexity of specialized ETFs.**

**Key differences with mutual funds include trading mechanisms, costs, management styles, and tax implications.**

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**DHUnplugged #716: Path Change** Aug 28, 2024
Path Change – Once the air clears, how will markets react?

Cracking down on excessive “junk” fees

Cracking down on Unfree Speech?

Jackson Hole – big update about “The Path”

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**Warm Up**
-Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees
- Cracking down on Unfree Speech?
- Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path"
- Intel is nervous

**Market Update**
- Lower End Consumers Fueling Spend
- Big news this week - NVDA earnings
- Rotation ? Consumers are still spending (Discounters loving it!)
- Taxing Unrealized Gains?

**Political rhetoric**
- Taxing **Unrealized** gains - questions coming in
--- Realize this is for the ultra-rich and the potential to get this passed is not high
- BUT - Harris campaign wants to see about higher taxes - which are needed, but not a good thing
----- How else are we going to pay back this mountain of debt?

**Jackson Hole**
- Time to Change the Path of Rates
- Powell was clear and they are now pricing in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut for September
- 0.50% will probably scare some people - so 0.25% is plan
- Odd ahead of election - but maybe Powell realizes he is behind the curve

**Target**
- Against the odds?
- Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday.
- Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing.
- Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance.
- Target raised its profit guidance, however, saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $9 to $9.70, up from the previous range of $8.60 and $9.60.
- Investors loved it! Stock moved from $135 - $169 on the news (back to $158)
---- Walmart near ATH and Ross Stores stock at ATH

**SpaceX - Boeing**
- So embarrassing for Boeing...
- Starliner is going to come back - Unmanned...
- Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, will return to Earth on a SpaceX vehicle early next year

**Telegram**
- Telegram messaging app CEO Durov arrested in France
- Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire founder and owner of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris shortly after landing on a private jet late on Saturday and placed in custody.
- Free speech under fire? Or is this more than just a Twitter alternative.
- Supposedly 900M Daily Active users???

**Junk Fees**
- FTC trying to crack down on "junk fees"
- Last year, 15% of restaurant owners added surcharges or fees to checks because of higher costs, according to the National Restaurant Association
- Inflation fee, credit card fee, health-care fee, house fee
- Restaurants are fighting back as they want the fees to add to bottom line and increase profitability and benefit staff.
- Makes the entire idea of going out to eat an expensive proposition.

**What is this?**
- Microsoft said Friday it will hold a conference in September for cybersecurity firms to discuss ways the industry can evolve following a faulty CrowdStrike software update that caused millions of Windows computers to crash in July.
- Microsoft will meet with CrowdStrike and other security companies at its campus in Redmond, Washington, on Sept. 10 to discuss how to prevent similar issues in the future
--- Wasn't this already something that was not supposed to happen?
- The executive said participants at the Windows Endpoint Security Ecosystem Summit will explore the possibility of having applications rely more on a part of Windows called user mode instead of the more privileged kernel mode.
- Software from CrowdStrike Check Point, SentinelOne and others in the endpoint-protection market currently depend on kernel mode.

**Apple**
- Planning an even on September 9th
- Apple iPhone 16 reveal?
- Any major updates or incremental again?
- Is this going to be the generational refresh cycle the analysts are so excited about?

**More Apple**
- Apple announced Monday that it will replace Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri on Jan. 1 with Kevan Parekh, Apple’s current vice president of financial planning and analysis.
- Maestri will continue to lead teams focusing on IT, security and real estate development, Apple said.
- Maestri was named Apple CFO in 2014.

**Intel - Getting Cold Sweats**
- Intel is working with advisors including Morgan Stanley to help defend itself against activist investors, according to people familiar with the matter, as CEO Pat Gelsinger attempts to turn around the struggling chipmaker.
- While Intel has faced activist pressure in the past, no new campaign has been formally launched and it isn't clear if an activist investor has been in contact with the company's board.

**More Earnings**
- CAVA ("the next CMG")
- Earnings per share: 17 cents vs. 13 cents expected
- Revenue: $233 million vs. $220 million expected
- The Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $19.7 million, or 17 cents per share, up from $6.5 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.
- Net salesclimbed 35% to $233 million. The company's same-store sales rose 14.4%
-- Ever Eat there?
-- **MORE** - **Cava Group** (CAVA) tumbled Tuesday after CEO Brent Schulman and several key executives and directors disclosed sales of Cava stock in the wake of the Mediterranean-themed restaurant chain's post-earnings spike to record highs.

**Peleton - Shares move..**
- Earnings and things looked less dire
- Stock up 30% since lows - still off > $90% since all-time-high

AI
- Anthropic, the Amazon-backed artificial intelligence startup, on Monday was hit with a class-action lawsuit in California federal court over alleged copyright infringement. Three authors said in the filing that Anthropic "built a multibillion-dollar business by stealing hundreds of thousands of copyrighted books," including their own.
- Authors Andrea Bartz, Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson alleged in the lawsuit that "an essential component of Anthropic's business model — and its flagship 'Claude' family of large language models (or 'LLMs')— is the largescale theft of copyrighted works," later alleging that "Anthropic downloaded known pirated versions of Plaintiffs' works, made copies of them, and fed these pirated copies into its models."
- "Copyright law prohibits what Anthropic has done here: downloading and copying hundreds of thousands of copyrighted books taken from pirated and illegal websites," the lawsuit states.
**- If this happens - what about the rest of the stolen blog posts, books, writings that were used to build other LLM's??**

**AI - NVDA**
- Earnings exprected after the close on Wednesday
- FactSet EPS consensus: 0.65
- FactSet Rev consensus: 28.72 bln
- Any big news out of company on lower guidance due to delay of Blackwell chip may be an issue
- - Some talk about slowing demand of chips due to datacenter issues with electric grid (some areas of country)

**Meaningful?**
- Monday Morning - Key Reversal Indicator hits +6
- Came in as markets faded throughout the day on Monday
- last time was June 2020 -reversal came in 2 days of about 5%

**Crude Oil**
- Rangebound
- But escalations in the Mid-East pushed prices up 3% 0n new news
- Bottom end $72ish - top end $80ish

**Icahn**
- Shares of billionaire investor Carl Icahn's Icahn Enterprises closed at a more than 20-year low on Monday after the firm said it will sell up to $400 million depository units through an "at-the-market" offering program.
-The stock dropped as much as 14.3% to $13.62, the lowest since November 2003, but pared losses to close down 11.5% at $14.07, the weakest since February 2004.
- Has been at the center of a short-seller hit job (looks like they were right)
- In a regulatory filing, the company said it intends to use net proceeds from the offering to fund potential acquisitions and for company purposes.

**CEO Money**
- Former Peloton chief executive John Foley says his fortune has dried up, two years after his departure from the high-end fitness company he co-founded.
- "Oh I’m an open book," the former billionaire told The New York Post in an interview. "You know, at one point I had a lot of money on paper. Not actually [in the bank], unfortunately. I’ve lost all my money. I’ve had to sell almost everything in my life."
- The former Peloton chief said he still spends his summer weekends in the Hamptons, although he has downsized twice, including unloading his $55 million oceanfront estate in East Hampton.

**Inflation - Not Really Dead**
- Cash Shiller Numbers out today - NEW ALL TIME HIGH
- Prices nationally were 5.4% higher than June 2023.
- New York saw the highest annual gain among the top 20 cities, with prices increasing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively.
- Portland, Oregon saw just a 0.8% annual increase in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.

**Liquidity Event**
- NFL owners voted on Tuesday to allow select private equity firms to invest at up to 10% of a team stake.
- The initial firms include Ares Management, Sixth Street Partners and Arctos Partners as well as a group that includes Dynasty Equity, Blackstone, Carlyle Group, CVC Capital Partners and Ludis.
- The NFL is the last major sports league to allow private equity investment as rising valuations make it harder for owners to buy in.

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DHUnplugged #715: Eco Confab Week Aug 21, 2024

Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week) Live Nation is in trouble Icahn get a slap on the wrist Gold - ripping - where to next? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week) - Live Nation is in trouble - Icahn get a slap on the wrist - Gold - ripping - where to next? - Price Controls - 3rd Rail? Market Update - Nearing all-time highs again - Buy the Dips! - Yields under 4% on 10-Year - Yen still in control - Back to Overbought again - still thinking not out of the woods - Lowe's and Home Depot Outlook - POOR (But stocks are up) Jackson Hole - Aristocrats line up to speak - Big doings as often a platform for Fed and other central bankers to make policy adjustments - Powell scheduled to speak at 10am Friday --- With all of the latest data and market push - what will he do?? - Before that - Wednesday we will see the July FOMC minutes GOLDDDDDDDD - Gold hit all-time high last Friday ($2,509.65) !!!!NOW $2,563!!!!! - WHY? Discussion ranges from Fed Reserve, Election, Middle East, India Buying.... - Gold has been a better GOLD then Bitcoin - just saying... Monopoly - Finally! - Ten Additional States Join Justice Department’s Suit Against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for Monopolizing Markets Across the Live Concert Industry - Today, the Attorneys General of Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont joined a civil antitrust lawsuit filed by the Justice Department, 29 other states and the District of Columbia against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for monopolization and other unlawful conduct in violation of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act. - Stock does not seem to care - or believe anything adverse will happen AMD buys ZT Systems - $4.9 Billion - What is ZT Systems? The company engages in full rack deployment -- a block filled with servers, storage, switches, etc. -- for hyperscale data centers. ZT also commands a data center infrastructure manufacturing business, for which AMD announced it would seek out a strategic partner to offload this part of the company. - Clearly the company does not have a CHIP or infrastructure ready for a major AI play at this time. Carl Ichan - Hand Slap - Carl Icahn and his publicly traded company Icahn Enterprises settled with the SEC over allegedly failing to disclose billions worth in stock-backed borrowing. - Icahn and IELP will pay a combined $2 million in fines, without admitting or denying wrongdoing, over the failure to disclose as much as $5 billion in margin loans that were backed by Icahn’s stake in the company. - Icahn, a well-known activist investor, had been facing pressure from another activist short seller in 2023. (Hindenburg which is still short the shares) Circle K 11? - Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K) has sounded out Japan's Seven & i (7-Eleven) about a potential takeover, the two companies said on Monday, making the 7-Eleven owner the largest-ever Japanese target of a foreign buyout. - While the value of the offer has not been disclosed, the bid is the latest example of the growing interest in Japanese companies by Western investors, who have been drawn by the country's push for better governance. - News of the deal sent shares of Seven & i surging by almost 23% in Tokyo Chicken and the Egg - Chicken prices are going up - Perdue Foods is recalling more than 167,000 pounds of frozen chicken nuggets and tenders after some customers reported finding metal wire embedded in the products. - According to Perdue and the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the recall covers select lots of three product...

DHUnplugged #714: Crisis Averted Aug 14, 2024

Cut taxes on SS and Tips? President decides rates? China - inflation ticking up YEN volatility - NOT OVER PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - Cut taxes on SS and Tips? - President decides rates? - China - inflation ticking up - YEN volatility - NOT OVER - Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP Market Update - CRISIS AVERTED - August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data - Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual - Same old = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down - PPI out - changing direction Crisis Averted - Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on - Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10% - intervention anyone? --- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here ---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments ---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up --- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$) - Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL Volume/Vacations - August - Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower - Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day - However - big week of ECO data - - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here) Month to Date MTD IWN iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF -7.87% IWM iShs Russell 2000 ETF -7.10% IWO iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF -6.15% IWD iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF -2.45% IWB iShs Russell 1000 ETF -1.68% IWF iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF -1.00% Really? - Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. - The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday - Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now... ***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035 --- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS ---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of population Where do we stand on this.. - Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions? Switcher-rooo - Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024 - -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10% China - China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday. - Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June. - Is this good news or bad? PPI - July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4% -- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns - Tomorrow - CPI Another one... - Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand. - The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors,

DHUnplugged #713: Bring out The PPP! Aug 07, 2024

Japan stocks PLUNGE! Tech stocks in correction - nearing bear market. What does the crystal ball tell us? Where is the PPP? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - OMG - Did you see that? - Fear - blood in the streets - Looking for someone to blame for the selloff - Boeing news....Finally Market Update - RISK off - all risk assets (aside from bonds) down in August - Bitcoin - CRUSHED - as with other cryptos - so much for safe-haven - 13:1 Day Decliners to Advancers (that is pretty significant. - Records broken - Worst day in 50 years for one stock Where is the PPP? - Now we are hearing about an emergency cut - looking for a 0.75% cut (Jeremy Seigel) - Investors looking for a save - Plunge Protection Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Seems like Tuesday in Japan - PPP to the rescue - +10% Bitcoin and ETH - Seriously - takes it on the chin down 15% with global market sell-off - What happened to it being a safe-haven - all but discounted at this point.... Japan's first increase in decades - Actually, last increase was 2017 - so 17 YEARS OF LOW RATES - The Widowmaker trade is finally working - but for how long? - Japan's major stock market - YEN Up 11% since 7/11/2024 and the Nikkei is down 23% (28% at low on Monday) since 7/11/2024 - Carry-Trade (borrow Yen at low rate and reinvest) BLOWING UP - WORST day for Japan's markets since Black Monday in 1987 --- The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history. -=-=-=-= This is not the first time Japan's central bank has caused this type of situation. Their entire investing and monetary process is very dangerous. -=-=-=-=- - Japan's Nikkei had the best day since 2008 on Tuesday Repercussions - Stocks around the world got hammered - worrying about YEN unwind as well as the earnings and outlook from Tech - Kospi -8% down Monday - World stocks off by 3%+ - UGLY moves and lots of trading opportunities - $1 Trillion in market cap erased from Mega-Caps Monday (Mag7) AND - A sharp drop in U.S. stocks is provoking selling from volatility-sensitive funds, exacerbating a selloff - Volatility control funds - systematic investment strategies that typically buy equities when markets are calm and sell when they grow turbulent have gorged on stocks as indexes soared to record highs in 2024 - More recently, they have begun selling, as worries over the economy and tech earnings rattle investors: volatility control funds have dumped about $83.6 billion of U.S. equity futures over the last two weeks VIX - SPIKES to 65 on Monday morning.... (Then comes down to about 36 on the close) - Historical spike like that are interesting signs that it may be end of route (or getting close) - - 80's for Pandemic and peak of Financial Crisis ---- Unbelievable move in 3 days that seems that most people were unprepared for Economic Issues - Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. - The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions. - Health care again led, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000). - Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Google loses Anti-Trust - Google’s payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone web browsers violates US antitrust law, a federal judge ruled Monday,

DHUnplugged #712: Correction or Pause? Jul 31, 2024

New Study - Power and AI Apple releases new AI (first version) Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric Correction territory for many tech names PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm Up - NEW CTP ANNOUNCED! - Jailtime? Short Seller targeted - The EXCITING Summer Olympics - Last vote - never again! Market Update - New Study - Power and AI - Apple releases new AI (first version) - Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric - Correction territory for many of the tech names.... - Microsoft Earnings... Crowdstrike Glitch - 2nd shoe is dropping - Lawsuits are on the way - hitting Crowdstrike and Microsoft - Several announced this week..... - CRWD still falling - Down 40% since before the "glitch" Microsoft - Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $2.95 per share, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.94; revenues rose 15.2% year/year to $64.73 bln vs the $64.38 bln FactSet Consensus. - Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +29%, +30% constant currency vs +30-31% CC prior guidance. - Guides next quarter is below consensus - Stock getting hit - down 7% initially, but comes back a bit in after-hours AMD - Better than feared - stock up after hours nicely Intel - cutting 1000's of jobs - they are not a contender at all Citron Boss - The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said. (Like he was in jail until bail was paid!) - $10M Bail - Andrew Left - is accused of using his public platform, which included social media posts on X and appearances on CNBC, to make illegal profits of at least $16 million by manipulating stock market activity and trading in a way that was contrary to the positions he publicly purported to take. - Left is also being sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which in a civil complaint filed last week in LA federal court accused him and Citron of “engaging in a $20 million multi-year scheme to defraud followers by “publishing false and misleading statements regarding his supposed stock trading recommendations.” - “Left bragged to colleagues that some of these statements [he made] were especially effective at inducing retail investors to trade based on his recommendations and said that it was like taking ‘candy from a baby,’” the SEC alleges in that lawsuit. Big Boys - Tuesday Update - NVDA (-6.5%) extends to session lows, as AI group comes under pressure ahead of key earnings reports and AI capex guides... other AI movers of note include ARM -6%, VRT -6%, SMCI -5.5%, QCOM -4%, MU -3%, SMH -3% Eurozone - The euro zone's economy grew by more than expected in the second quarter of 2024, flash figures from the European Union's statistics office showed Tuesday. - The zone's gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June compared to the previous quarter, the data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis. McDonald's Earnings - McDonald’s on Monday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as same-store sales declined across every division. - Earnings per share: $2.97 adjusted vs. $3.07 expected - Revenue: $6.49 billion vs. $6.61 billion expected - “At the end of the day, we expect customers will continue to feel the pinch of the economy and a higher cost of living for at least the next several quarters in this very competitive landscape,” McDonald’s U.S. President Joe Erlinger said - Stock - Went up - Big plan ????? Bring back the Value Meal (How does that actually help?)

DHUnplugged #711: So Many Fails Jul 24, 2024

DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) Dangerous market - running on emotions Tesla Earnings are out... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom still a work in progress it appears Warm Up - Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed) - Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) - Dangerous market - running on emotions Market Update - DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July) - Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed - - Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too Need a new CTP Market Emotions - Now that we are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market - Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines) - People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts) - Biden dropping out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ... Crowdstrike Glitch - Anything on your end a problem? - Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday - Airlines - still seem to be having issues - Bigger issues when relying on single company? - Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services - Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings (some firms may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack) Delta Offers Apologies+ - CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch" - 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights) - The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts - WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers) Tech - Wiz Walks - $23 billion - they say NO THANKS - Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers - May valuation was $12 billion - Company wants to go the IPO route Election - Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?) - Trump Trade fade? - Vance tough on anything foreign? (USA First) - Anyone else aside from Harris? Bank Earnings - Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good - Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely) - Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks) - Fed continues to be dovish - Trump expectations of reduced regulations? More Earnings - Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus --- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue and other AI comments) - Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus -- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr ---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%) - Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%) Warren - Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.

DHUnplugged #710: All-In Market Jul 17, 2024

Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment) KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 Earnings growth expected to continue.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom should be back up and running.... Warm Up - Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY) - ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER - Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN - College athletes - Min Wage? Market Update - Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) - Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment) - KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 - Earnings growth expected to continue.... - Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future? OH MY - Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...) - Value over Growth - Real Estate - Builders - WOW! --- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today ----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push - KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month ----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets) - European Markets RED across the board - Russian Market GREEN - China RED - Japan RED - US Markets GREEN - Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN Powell on Monday - Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2% -B.O.R.I.N.G. Trump Media - DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. - Was up 30% by end of day on Monday China Economic Update - China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. - Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast. - Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase. - Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations. - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter. KRI Indicator - Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020 - First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory - Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET) Any Surprise? Retail.... - Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital - Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO. - These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%. - Consumer is starting to fight back????? DEFLATION? - CPI was NEGATIVE MoM - PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at Deflation CPI Chart Finally! - Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm. - The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos,

DHUnplugged #709: Blubber Gorging Jul 10, 2024

Shark Week (Market Style) - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites Earnings season coming up Biden staying in the race (for now) Complacency nearing a tipping point. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Shark Week - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites - Earnings season coming up - Biden staying in the race - Market Moves - the inside track - NEW - ALL ABOUT BIDEN ISSSUES Market Update - Big Swings - Massive Rotation - Employment Report for June - Market Moves - the inside track - Big Box - down to a few Fed First - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Q&A with Senate Banking Committee: The "likely next direction" of policy will be a loosening of policy; rate hike not likely Employment Reports - Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market. - Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January. - BLS Official saw Unemp rate tick up to 4.1% -Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June - Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. The Inside Track Lowdown -- People asking me "When will this end? It is crazy!" - This week we will be treated to CPI and PPI. - As it stands, Powell made comments after the close on July 3rd that they were not satisfied with the rate of change related to inflation. There is more work to be done he said. But, the markets don't really care about that - they see a cut in September and December. - The general direction of the markets - or path of least resistance appears to be up. - Investors are gorging themselves on AI related names. - The big boys (and girls) of the market are taking in big money - helping to keep markets buoyed. - - It has the look and feel of great white sharks in a ravenous feeding frenzy over a rotting whale corpse. - Full Disclosure - we hold a good number of these names in our core equity allocation. Microsoft, Nvidia, SMCI, Google (Alphabet), Meta (Facebook) and several more. - Monday moves - the DJIA was up big to start the day and at the lunchtime break was in the red. The money clearly flowed out of DJIA and into the NASDAQ100 again. So, this is how it will be for a while, or until something changes. And, that may very well be the next batch of earnings through the season that begins on this coming Friday with the major financial names. Ford - Ford truck sales, which includes pickups and vans, totaled 308,920 vehicles during the period, the company's best second-quarter performance for the category since 2019, Ford said. Sales in its F-Series totaled 199,463 vehicles. - Sales of Ford electric vehicles totaled 23,957 during the second quarter, up 61%. - The automaker said its EVs, in particular the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, are drawing new customers to the company. - Stock is stuck in a range Boeing - Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of $243.6 million to resolve a U.S. Justice Department investigation into two 737 MAX fatal crashes, the government said in a court filing on Sunday. - The plea deal, which requires a judge's approval, would brand the planemaker a convicted felon in connection with crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia over a five-month period in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. - Smart - quick slap on the wrist and get it over with (for publicity sake) - As part of the deal, the planemaker agreed to spend at least $455 million over the next three years to...

DHUnplugged #708: Let Them Eat Tech! Jul 03, 2024

Let them eat tech! Meme stock mania may be dying down Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? How About those Florida Panthers? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Let them eat tech! - Meme stock mania may be dying down - Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? - How About those Florida Panthers? Market Update - Heavily weighted toward 10 stocks - breath sucks - Seeing slowdown in consumer confidence and holding steady on most economic reports - Some concerns mounting about Russia - Stress Tests - Anyone Surprised? Russia Issues - NATO wants to put a senior civilian official in Kyiv, Ukraine - Market was a little concerned about this - as new broke, selling occurred (for about 5 minutes) HA! Play with Fire - Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021, was sued by GameStop investors who said they lost money through his "pump-and-dump" scheme for the videogame retailer. - A proposed class action accusing Gill of securities fraud was filed on Friday in the Brooklyn, New York federal court. - Investors led by Martin Radev, who lives in the Las Vegas area, said Gill manipulated GameStop securities between May 13 and June 13 by quietly accumulating large quantities of stock and call options, and then dumping some holdings after emerging from a three-year social media hiatus. More Kitty Hoo-Haa - Shares of Chewy popped in the premarket trading Monday after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed meme stock trader "Roaring Kitty" took a stake in the pet food e-commerce retailer. - The filing showed Keith Gill bought just over 9 million shares — amounting to a 6.6% stake in the company. That makes him the third-biggest Chewy shareholder, according to FactSet. Based on Friday's close, that stake is valued at more than $245 million. - Stock was initially p 16% in premarket (that is after some wild swings last week) ---- Close DOWN 6% on the day after that initial pop - This guy is up Ryan Cohen's butt pretty far.. Chipotle Split Update - Trading near a post-split low - Stock initially moved higher toward $68 then reverses hard over the past few sessions, trading near $60 - This is important as investors may not just run into split announcements after this performance. ---- Or people are finally agreeing with JCD on the lack of taste? Boeing - Boeing said Monday that it will buy back its struggling fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in an all-stock deal that the plane maker has said will improve safety and quality control. - It said it agreed to pay $37.25 a share in Boeing stock for Spirit, giving the aerospace company an equity value of $4.7 billion. Including Spirit’s debt the deal has a transaction value of $8.3 billion Boeing said. Spirit’s shares closed Friday at $32.87 a share, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion. ---- MORE: U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge tied to two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes, attorneys for the victims' family members said Sunday, blasting a potential agreement as a "sweetheart deal." - The DOJ said in May that it was reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from federal charges. The company agreed to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of its best-selling 737 Max planes, which killed all 346 people on the two flights. OIL! - Breaking out -- Concerns over supply issues due to Houthi rebels droning Suez Canal --- Hurricane season hitting early - EARLIEST Cat4 on record happening now!

DHunplugged #707: Tug-Of-War Jun 26, 2024

- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Summer Spin Cycle - New flow shifting to election - Banks - Fed's Stress Test Results (Wednesday) - Last week of month and quarter! Market Update - Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute Next week is JULY 4th - Markets closing early (1PM) on Wednesday - Markets Closed on Thursday - Most people will take Friday off! Short Interest - Multi-Year low on S&P 500 and stocks - Hedge fund disclosures stopping some from shorting (after Meme stock craze) - Seems that no shorts helping to calm volatility Stock Market - Weird Facts - The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That's the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis - The index hasn't experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is considered by many investors as the de facto fear gauge on the Street. Last month, it hit its lowest level going back to November 2020. On Friday, it traded around 13, near historically low levels. - Complacency or Green-Light? Home Prices - Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low, and didn't move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high. - Many reasons - but no place to go, high rates and high prices - IF more inventory comes on the market - possibly prices will come down (Last month inventories jumped 6.7%) - Median price of a home sold in May was $419,300 More Homes - Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%. - Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales. - First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before. MORE HOUSING - April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.2% vs. 6.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 7.5% from 7.4% ERC Credit DENIED - The IRS will deny billions of dollars' worth of claims for a pandemic-era tax break while working to process lower-risk filings, the agency said on Thursday afternoon. - These are what you heard on commercials for a while... - After investigating more than 1 million claims worth roughly $86 billion, the IRS said in the release that it identified 10% to 20% of the highest-risk filings, and "tens of thousands" will be rejected in the coming weeks, according to the agency. Another 60% to 70% of claims with an "unacceptable level of risk" will be further examined, the IRS said. - During the ERC review period, the agency processed 28,000 claims received before September 2023 worth $2.2 billion and disallowed more than 14,000 claims worth $1 billion, according to the release. TESLA - Headcount reduction continues - 14% of workforce has been slashed this year -- The latest figure is not from precise payroll data, but from the number of people who are on Tesla's "everybody" email distribution list as of June 17 - Bloomberg reporting that Telsa looming for 20% total headcount cut in 2023 to benefit profitability after company reached inefficiency levels of 25% -30% Musk - Need to know - How many children did Elon father? Banks - Fed Stress Tests on Wednesday (all should pass) - U.S. bank regulators said four major banks had shortcomings in their "...

DHUnplugged #706: Beanstalk Market Jun 12, 2024

Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) NVDA - passes AAPL market cap Treasury yields moving within a range Beanstalk - what is that story again? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NO SHOW NET WEEK - OUT ON BIZ FOR A FEW DAYS Warm Up - Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) - for a minute - NVDA - passes AAPL market cap - Treasury yields moving within a range - Beanstalk - what is that story again? - Fed in play Market Update - Large Caps dominate June (thus far) - Small-caps out of favor - Buyers are hungry - any dip is bought - Economic confusion - Jobs report - NVDA - 10:1 completed (now what?) Apple WWDC - Pins and Needles - Features will go beyond artificial intelligence to personal intelligence. - Will protect privacy at every step. Capabilities: - Will enable iPhone to create language and images.Language understanding will be natural. - New writing tools can summarize text when you are working on a blog post. - Users can create new emojis for conversation. - Images can be created in three styles. Actions: - Will allow hundreds of "actions" such as "show me my photos from last week" or "show me the podcast my mom wanted me to listen to last week." - Apple Intelligence is powered by large language models. - Introduces Apple Private Cloud with personalized AI. - Siri will be able to take AI enabled actions. It will allow for more natural language. ---- Market not impressed - was hoping for BIG AI announcement from Apple. ------ Stock down on this news - then POPS to ATH on Tuesday Elon on Apple AI - Elon Musk said he would ban Apple Inc. devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated into the products at the operating system level. - The remarks followed a presentation Monday by Apple Inc., when it said that customers would have access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot through the Siri digital assistant. Apple plans to roll out the capabilities as part of a suite of new AI features later this year. Jobs report - May nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000). - The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 249,000 from 237,000. - April nonfarm payrolls revised to 165,000 from 175,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 310,000 from 315,000. - May average hourly earnings were up 0.4% - Unemployment rate moved up to 4% --- YET - still HOPE for 1-2 rate cuts this year OOPS - Toyota - company has lost %15B market cap after false data found - Japan's transport ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday. - Other companies too - Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, Yamaha -- Companies falsifying data used in safety tests. - Toyota chairman: "tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities." --- Collusion???? Gold - Short Supply? - According to the World Gold Council - Gold hard to find - New gold deposits are becoming harder to find around the world as many prospective areas have already been explored - Gold Strategist: "I think the overwhelming story there is: after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustained growth in production," said Reade. - Bottom Line: "It's getting harder to find gold, permit it, finance it, and operate it," Game-Stop Already - Shares tank 40% after another big run up - Keith Gill live stream - Continues to post cryptic messages now that he is back - Must be bored Panic Buttons - Retail giant Walmart says it is against putting panic buttons in stores - a move that the New York legislature wants to require under a new law aimed at keeping retail workers safe.

DHunplugged #705: Sinkholes Forming Jun 05, 2024

Sinkholes forming Memes again - Huge Moves Economy starting to stall Face Ripper moves into the close PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Sinkholes forming - Memes again - Huge Moves - Economy starting to stall - Announcing a NEW CTP Market Update - Face Ripping - Last Friday - Software Stocks hammered - May finished in the green nicely - Oil Drooping - Roaring Kitty is back Face Rip - Stocks ramped on the last day of the month - 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday - markets had a good month - -- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month - US real estate up 5% - Only area LataAm down for May Sinkhole Forming Again - MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA - Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight -0.53% Best Buy Earnings - "Sluggish Demand" - Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected - Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation. - Shares soar Software stocks Soft - Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue - The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft. - Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this week Economics - April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2% - May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2 - May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0 Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com) - The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month. - The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing. - The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023. - The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%. - The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%. - The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%. - The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%. - The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%. - The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%. Fed Cuts - Not Happening - According to the latest issues of Barrons - "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024. Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end." WAIT A MINUTE - Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report - 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week) GDPNow - Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31 - Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April. As Usual - Backwards - OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

DHUnplugged #704: The Miracle Flight May 29, 2024

Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes Cruise anyone? Global Warming - New Info In PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM - The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes - Cruise anyone? - Global Warming - New Info In Market Update - 40,000 ! Then we fail - Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors - BBQFlation - Split Excitement! - Hindenburg Omen Fed - Two Faced - Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. - Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. - The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. BBQFlation - Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly - Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023. - Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06. Hindenburg Omen - Indicator was triggered last week. - only right about 25% of the time - Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens. FED HEAD - The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday. - Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.” - He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added. Could we finally get relief from these thieves? - The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations. - The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour. - In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd." - "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs. DONATIONS- New Shirt Design? Miracle Flights - The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it,

DHUnplugged #703: Euphoric May 22, 2024

Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday Oil Unusually stable Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? Meme stocks come back to earth PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday - Oil Unusually stable - Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? - Meme stocks come back to earth - We have an Osbourne Effect Market Update - 40,000 ! Get the party hats! - ATH, ATH, ATH - Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver) - VIX - lowest since 2019 - Someone better against Tesla (Big name) Banks - The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend. - Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added. - Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported. Goodbye? - In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years - That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away. - Stock dropped 4% on that conversation No Direction - Grasping .... - Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business. - “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.” Meanwhile - VIX is sagging - The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high. - Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed. VIX Chart Interesting - Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth. - So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena? - The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?) AI - Here we go - OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday. - News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface,

DHUnplugged #702: Inflation Nation May 15, 2024

Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation PPI HOT - Market does not care A Meme stock face ripper! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow - Sentiment is dropping - wondering why - Meme stock face ripper - EV days - losses not acceptable - PPI and CPI this week Market Update - Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn - Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week - S&P 500 near record - Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation - PPI HOT - Market does not care Fed talk - Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari - There has been cross currents in the data. - There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024. - The Fed is in a wait and see mode - Cautious about how restrictive policy is. - More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut. - There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out. - Leases trending up is a concerning signal. ----- What does any of that tell us? ------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU) Latest Inflation Readings - The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. - On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March. - The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target. Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixed Getting AI Overload - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me" Sentiment - Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise - May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2 Fed Put - Markets melting up since last Powell comments - There is a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown. - The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut. Meme Stocks - Gamestock was up 80% and many of the other names moving hard --- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas... More Squeeze - Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot. - The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.

DHUnplugged #701: Sentiment Pulse May 08, 2024

Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment -- --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) - Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple - Fake Work? Market Update - If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again - Follow up - Utilities - Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove - Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate Earnings Season Update: - Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date. - Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%. - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7% - Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors. - Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials. - Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done. - - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Fake Work - An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry. - Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example." - "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts." - Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more." Buy 'em - Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again - NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592 - AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156 - SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again Follow Up - Utilities - Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places --- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS - Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone. - After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet. - AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030 Utilities ETF Apple - Earnings - Nothing great in the earnings. --- A few pockets of sunshine.... --- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...

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Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..