Decouple - Dr. Chris Keefer

Latest Episodes:

Ontario’s Climate Retreat feat. Edgardo Sepulveda Aug 23, 2021

Show notes

In the past two decades, Ontario has become a world leader in clean electricity by phasing out coal generation, which it did 90% by restarting units at the Bruce and Pickering Nuclear Generating Stations. Ineffective clean energy policies now threaten that leadership. With the decision of Ontario Power Generation not to refurbish Pickering, fossil gas is set to ramp up to fill the lost capacity. The closure of 3.1 GW of nuclear power at Pickering and its replacement with fossil gas will constitute at least a 1% increase in Canada's total emissions. And on the carbon pricing front, while Ontario has adopted a carbon tax, a closer look shows it is too lax in its current form to make a real difference, exempting upwards of 90% of emissions from gas plants. And this comes at a time of massive increase in electricity demand planned due to electrification. In this Ontario-focused episode, returning guests and regulatory economist Edgardo Sepulveda takes us through what Ontario got wrong with its carbon tax and how the province is headed towards higher emissions. Read Edgardo's in-depth analysis on his blog: https://www.progressive-economics.ca/2021/07/ontario-electricity-viii-backwards-on-climate/ Learn more about the Tax the Gas & Save Pickering campaign: www.taxthegas.org

The coming European blackouts and SMR opportunities feat. Kalev Kallemets Aug 19, 2021

Show notes

Germany has once again embarked on a war on two fronts this time attempting to phase out its two main sources of reliable baseload power, Nuclear and Coal. Nevermind the fact that during a climate emergency nuclear, despite being almost zero carbon, is being phased out at breakneck speed while coal will languish on the grid for another 15 years. Germany is not alone. In many countries in the EU baseload electricity generation is on the chopping block.

European energy systems are largely following the illogic of what Meredith Angwin calls the "fatal trifecta:" Over reliance on weather dependent renewables, just in time natural gas and imports. The weather is getting no more reliable, EU gas prices are skyrocketting and electricty imports will not be dependable given the amount of generation coming off line over the next decade. This phenomenon will lead to blackouts within the next couple of years according to my guest Kalev Kallemets.

Kalev is the CEO of Fermi Energia, a company of nuclear scientists, energy experts and entrepreneurs looking to bring SMRs to Estonia and other countries in the EU as a vital tool for meeting its climate, economic development and energy independence goals. Kalev argues that ever increasing EU carbon pricing and volatile natural gas prices make an excellent business case for nuclear energy.

Kalev believes that after the difficulties encountered with building 21st century large scale nuclear on budget and on time SMRs using tried and tested light water technology offer the most compelling options going forward. He argues that as has happened with Tesla in the electric vehicle market the private sector can pick a winner in order to deliver the economies of multiples required to make SMRs economic.

Assessing the Sixth IPCC report feat. Zeke Hausfather Aug 14, 2021

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The IPCC has released its first major update in 8 years, the sixth assessment report (AR6). Zeke Hausfather, who contributed to the IPCC report and is a climate and energy analyst at The Breakthrough Institute, joins us to help us make sense of it all.

AR6 provides greater resolution and precision in terms of our understanding of climate sensitivity and the resulting temperature ranges we can expect moving into the future. It also gives us a more confident estimate of climate impacts like sea-level rise and the effect of climate change on extreme weather events.

Zeke’s contribution to AR6 demonstrates that most of our historic climate models are performing well by accurately predicting the trends of the last two decades. We explore the claims of climate change lukewarmists and skeptics, such as Steve Koonin, whose recent book “Unsettled” has been making waves. We also explore the implications of ecomodernist vs. degrowth responses to climate change.

Medical Isotopes? We CANDU that!: Feat James Scongack Aug 09, 2021

Show notes

Medical isotopes make modern medicine possible. We depend on a steady supply to sterilize medical equipment, as radiation sources for oncology treatments and for diagnostic imaging. Canada is a world leader in the production of medical isotopes and punches far above its weight.

Canada's national research reactor, which closed in 2016, provided a number of isotopes including Molybdenum 99 which treated 76,000 patients a day in over 80 countries.

Now CANDU power reactors have been put to the job and crank out enough Cobalt 60 to sterlize 25 billion pieces of medical equipment and 40% of the world's single use surgical instruments.

I am joined by James Scongack, chair of the nuclear isotope council and an executive at Bruce Power, Canada's largest power plant, to deep dive this topic.

SMR Economics and the Nuclear Secret Sauce feat. Tony Roulstone Aug 03, 2021

Show notes

In the West, many nuclear advocates have pinned their hopes for a nuclear renaissance on Small Modular Reactors, or SMRs. SMRs range from a potentially faster way for nuclear nations to build more plants; to a way for countries to start their nuclear power programs; to special application power sources that serve specific country needs, such as those under development in Russia and China. Yet-to-be-built SMR designs make a lot of bold promises. A question looming over the nuclear industry is: will they fulfill those promises?

In this episode, I am joined by Tony Roulstone, a lecturer in nuclear engineering at the University of Cambridge with 10 years of experience as a nuclear engineer at Rolls Royce, which is currently developing its own SMR. We discuss the “secret sauce” of past successful nuclear buildouts; the necessity of state funding; failures of economic policy for long-term infrastructure; the true meaning of modular construction; the trade-off between small modular construction and economies of scale; the minimum order sizes for companies like Rolls Royce to actually begin manufacturing their SMRs (10 GW); the different types of SMRs; and the current status of SMR development around the world. The result is a detailed and sober conversation on the benefits, drawbacks, and challenges of SMRs.

If you enjoyed the episode, please consider leaving a rating and review on Apple Podcasts to help new listeners find the show!

How Radiation Affects Us feat. Dr. Douglas Boreham Jul 26, 2021

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We live in a radioactive world. Every minute, 7,000 potentially cell-damaging radioactive releases occur in our bodies. How are we still alive? And what are the real risks associated with radiation?

In this episode, Dr. Keefer is joined by Dr. Douglas Boreham, a world expert in the effects of low doses of ionizing radiation, to tackle the biological effects of radiation.

They discuss various types of radiation; the linear no-threshold hypothesis; fears of airborne "hot particles" of uranium; our bodies' sophisticated cellular repair mechanisms; the surprising mechanics behind cell damage from radiation; the elusive idea of hormesis; and the "choreography of fear" that comes from an abundance of caution at nuclear plants.

Dr. Douglas Boreham is a Professor and the Division Head of Medical Sciences at the Northern Ontario School of Medicine, as well as a Professor in the Department of Medical Physics and Applied Radiation Sciences at McMaster University. He has 35 years of experience researching the biological effects of environmental and medical exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation.

Batteries, Energy Lysenkoism, and Geopolitics feat. Mark P. Mills Jul 19, 2021

Show notes

Intermittent weather-dependent sources of electricity need backup storage to compensate for gaps in production. Elon Musk has promised that Solar + Powerall batteries ensure that your home will never lose power. In this episode, returning guest Mark P. Mills breaks down the concept of energy storage, the physical requirements and limitations of our current storage technologies, and what to expect in the future.

Batteries will play an important role in the future of the grid and will continue to improve. However, the laws of physics and chemistry dampen some of the magical thinking that surrounds batteries, putting limits on their efficiency and energy density as well as demanding dramatic increases in mining if lithium-ion batteries are chosen for grid-scale storage.

In a purely wind/solar grid, storage must be able to bridge days-long periods without sun or wind, which occur several times per decade in North America. Currently, all the grid-scale lithium battery storage in the U.S. could keep the country powered for just 20 seconds.

This contributes to the economic reality that battery storage is unlikely ever to be cost-competitive with the storage of fossil fuels. While wealthy nations may be able to afford to go further down the path of a "green energy" transition, these costs will be prohibitive for poor countries. The fragilization of the grid and the crises of reliability that are beginning to impact states with a high penetration of wind and solar, like California, are beginning to create some of the characteristics of a third-world grid, such as a skyrocketing demand for gasoline backup generators (learn more about Nigeria's backup generator situation: https://www.energyforgrowth.org/memo/the-love-hate-relationship-with-self-generation). This is an impending disaster for a state pursuing an "electrify everything" agenda.

An outcome of the high costs and impracticality of using batteries to back up intermittent generation is that grids with high renewable penetration have built parallel generation portfolios: one low-carbon, and the other, in the absence of abundant hydro or nuclear, dominated by fossil fuels.

The renewables portfolio spares some fossil fuels, but it doesn't displace the need for maintaining fossil generators to run when it's not windy or sunny. This is why Germany, despite spending 500 billion euros on renewables, has kept 70% of its coal-dominated fossil fleet and is continuing to build natural gas infrastructure such as the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

Dr. Keefer and Mills also reflect on the timescales of innovation and the (un)likelihood of achieving ambitious 2030 decarbonization goals; the concept of "energy Lysenkoism"; the geopolitics of China's energy policy; and Mills' forthcoming book, The Cloud Revolution.

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, where he co-directs an Institute on Manufacturing Science and Innovation.

Apologies for connectivity issues throughout the interview that garbled some of the audio.

What Went Wrong at Vogtle? feat. Mark Nelson Jul 12, 2021

Show notes

Vogtle was supposed to be the beginning of a nuclear renaissance. The two AP1000's at this site were the first new reactors to be built in the USA in the 21st century. There was optimism that a novel modular design that economized space and materials would be on budget and on time. Vogtle, however, has become the poster child of the United States' inability to build affordable nuclear reactors.

The timeline has almost doubled and the cost overrun tripled. The project bankrupted the reactor vendor Westinghouse and almost bankrupted its parent company Toshiba. Decouple veteran Mark Nelson returns to discuss what we can learn from the challenges of this megaproject.

Mark argues that Westinghouse, which had become divorced by a generation from nuclear construction, created a design that looked good on paper but presented major construction challenges. Rather than learning from contemporary successful reactor builders like the South Koreans, the company believed it knew best.

The design features of the AP1000 which boasted 1/5th the amount of concrete and steel of a typical reactor and modular construction were supposed to enable parallel construction and speed up the build. In reality, they resulted in unprecedented challenges such as working in confined spaces and defective modules which led to interruptions in the critical paths of the construction schedule.

Furthermore, the engineering, procurement and construction firms engaged to build Vogtle had almost no workers or management with lived experience of building reactors let alone a first-of-a-kind novel design like the AP1000. Communication between the Chinese who were years ahead with their four AP1000 builds broke down and lessons were not shared with their American counterparts.

The history of successful nuclear buildouts in countries like France, Japan and South Korea shows that lived construction experience and consistent designs built over and over are what bring down nuclear costs and timelines. In essence the tacit knowledge of a skilled management and workforce trumps a fancy new design especially for an atrophied nuclear sector.

Vogtle is a cautionary tale for the western nuclear industry which has recently pinned it hopes almost exclusively on the role of advanced nuclear and novel SMR designs. Mark argues what is needed is humility, consulting with and employing the lessons of successful contemporary reactor builders, building simple reactors we are familiar with and focusing on optimizing construction ease over novel designs at least for now.

Nuclear Energy is Union Energy feat. Bob Walker Jul 07, 2021

Show notes

Nuclear energy is only possible thanks to a highly-skilled, largely unionized workforce. In popular culture, nuclear workers have been portrayed as incompetent (e.g. the Simpson) or as evil incarnate by anti-nuclear activists like Dr. Helen Caldicott. In Canada, nuclear generation is publicly owned and run by a highly unionized workforce. It provides cheap, clean, and reliable energy to the commons AKA our grid. Due to the energy density of fission, each nuclear worker has an outsized role in preventing the burning of fossil fuels and producing large amounts of air pollution-free and low emissions electricity. I am joined by Bob Walker, the national director of the Canadian Nuclear Worker's Council, to demystify what nuclear workers do, how nuclear energy is a uniquely potent job creator, and why political parties and many unions have not engaged or even turned their backs on nuclear workers and their unions.

This interview was originally recorded for the January 3, 2021 episode of We CANDU It.

A Good War feat. Seth Klein Jul 02, 2021

Show notes

Seth Klein, a writer and public policy researcher, joins Dr. Keefer to discuss his book, A Good War: Mobilizing Canada for the Climate Emergency.

Klein draws on the history of Canada during World War II, when the country massively industrialized to help Britain with the war effort in what he describes as a "true society-wide mobilization." He uses this history to argue for a similar society-wide, wartime-like mobilization to fight climate change.

Klein makes a bold argument: We have tried and fail for 30 years to "incentivize our way to victory," and we will lose the climate battle if we think strategic subsidies, incentives, and taxes alone will lead to decarbonization. Rather, we need the state to take charge and institute rapid, mandatory measures.

During crises, Klein argues, populations actually respond positively to mandatory measures. For example, in World War II the backlash feared from rationing and other mandatory measures rarely manifested. We have seen a similar phenomenon during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite some dissent, there has been wide support for social distancing and mask requirements. On climate change, Klein argues that people "in the main" are ahead of the political curve and demanding strong climate action.

In this episode, Dr. Keefer and Seth Klein discuss the nuances of this argument, including the important question of the technological choices made during a hypothetical wartime-like mobilization, and how we can avoid making progress in the wrong direction.

Seth Klein recently launched the Climate Emergency Unit following over two decades of experience at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and in various other policy roles focused on poverty reduction, social, and environmental justice.

Learn more about the Climate Emergency Unit: https://www.climateemergencyunit.ca/

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