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Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg — Science
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter. If you enjoy learning about powerful, practical concepts and frameworks, wish you had more deep, intellectual conversations in your life, or are looking for non-BS self-improvement, then we think you’ll love this podcast! Each week we invite a brilliant guest to bring four important ideas to discuss for an in-depth conversation. Topics include psychology, society, behavior change, philosophy, science, artificial intelligence, math, economics, self-help, mental health, and technology. We focus on ideas that can be applied right now to make your life better or to help you better understand yourself and the world, aiming to teach you the best mental tools to enhance your learning, self-improvement efforts, and decision-making. • We take on important, thorny questions like: • What’s the best way to help a friend or loved one going through a difficult time? How can we make our worldviews more accurate? How can we hone the accuracy of our thinking? What are the advantages of using our “gut” to make decisions? And when should we expect careful, analytical reflection to be more effective? Why do societies sometimes collapse? And what can we do to reduce the chance that ours collapses? Why is the world today so much worse than it could be? And what can we do to make it better? What are the good and bad parts of tradition? And are there more meaningful and ethical ways of carrying out important rituals, such as honoring the dead? How can we move beyond zero-sum, adversarial negotiations and create more positive-sum interactions?

Latest Episodes:

Raising our happiness baseline (with Sasha Chapin) Jun 19, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

How easy is it to shift our baseline level of happiness? What sorts of things can most effectively shift that baseline? And are they highly specific to each individual or generalizable to most people? What are the differences between conceptual and phenomenal self-love? Why might it be useful to view shame as a kink? How does self-love or self-acceptance differ from indulging or even just tolerating the worst parts of yourself? What's the best way to think about "woo"? How genuine is the stereotypical guru demeanor of serenity, graciousness, and attentiveness? Is it possible for people with aphantasia to learn visualization? What's so interesting about perfume? What can people do to become better writers?

Sasha Chapin is a writer currently living in California. Most of his recent writing is on his Substack. His most popular posts there are "What the humans like is responsiveness" and "50 Things I Know". He also wrote a book called All the Wrong Moves: A Memoir About Chess, Love, and Ruining Everything. Learn more about him at his website, sashachapin.com, or follow him on Twitter / X at @sashachapin.

Further reading

Cate Hall's Clearer Thinking episode
Loch Kelly's Clearer Thinking episode
Mind's Eye Development eCourse — the course that helped Sasha overcome aphantasia
Loving What Is: Four Questions That Can Change Your Life, by Byron Katie
Expanding Awareness, by Michael Ashcroft
Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, and Sheila Heen

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists

Music

Affiliates

Worldviews, altruism, and embracing variance (with Emmett Shear) Jun 12, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

How does Emmett's worldview differ from the standard Silicon Valley worldview? What's the difference between an ideology and a worldview? What's middle management useful for? How might democracy be improved? How important is optimism? Why do people seem to get less done each day than they expect to get done? When is high variance beneficial? Does every startup have a point where it seems like they're going to fail? What's the best and worst startup advice out there? What's the right way to learn from users / customers? When should companies follow trends? How should we think about the different types of AI risks?

Emmett Shear is an entrepreneur and investor. He was part of the first class at Y Combinator in 2005. He co-founded Justin.tv in 2006 and its spin-off company Twitch in 2011. In the same year, he also became a part-time partner at Y Combinator, a role in which he continues to advise new startups. He very briefly (for 2.5 days) acted as interim CEO at OpenAI in November 2023. Follow him on Twitter / X at @eshear.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke) Jun 05, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools?

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn or via her website, AnnieDuke.com; or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack.

Further reading

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

What we know and don't know about nutrition (with Gil Carvalho) May 29, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

How do we know what's true in nutrition? Why aren't nutrition studies seemingly as "definitive" as (e.g.) physics experiments often seem to be? What is the "hierarchy of evidence"? Why is there such a disconnect between the kinds of evidence that actually seem to persuade people and the kinds of evidence that scientists view as valid and meaningful? How can we talk about specific foods in ways that avoid labelling them as always good or always bad? Is the Mediterranean diet good for anyone and everyone? Is it better than all other known dietary patterns? Are there healthy ways to do (e.g.) low-carb, high-carb, low-fat, high-fat, and other similar diet types? What do we know about the effects of ketogenic diets? What do we know about the effects of meat-only diets? Are saturated fats always bad? How should we think about mechanistic evidence given for or against a particular food or diet? How much protein should we consume every day? Should we universally reduce our sugar intake? To what extent is excess body fat bad? Since BMI is much criticized, what are the best measures of health for people with excess body fat? Should we avoid blood sugar spikes throughout the day? What percent of people tend to re-gain lost weight after concluding temporary diets? Is caloric intake really the only factor for weight gain or loss? Is the mistrust of nutritionists justified?

Gil Carvalho, MD PhD is a physician, research scientist, science communicator, speaker, and writer. Dr. Carvalho trained as a medical doctor in the University of Lisbon, in his native Portugal, and later obtained a PhD in Biology from the California Institute of Technology. He has published peer-reviewed medical research spanning the fields of genetics, molecular biology, nutrition, behavior, aging, and neuroscience. In parallel with his research career, Dr. Carvalho also has a passion for science communication. He directs and hosts Nutrition Made Simple, which aims to convey fundamental nutrition concepts to a general audience via educational videos. Learn more about him here, and follow him on YouTube, Twitter / X, and Instagram.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard) May 22, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

Can we measure everything that matters to us? When is measuring the correlates of a thing pretty much just as good as measuring the thing itself? Why are some people resistant to measuring certain things? What are some things people should be measuring but aren't? What's the connection between measuring things and assigning probabilities to events? How much do we know about how well human intuition performs against "doing the math"? How inconsistent are we at applying our own principles in decision-making? What kinds of calibration training are effective? What is "value of information"? What is the Rule of 5? What are the top three things we can do to improve our decision-making?

Douglas Hubbard is an author, consultant, and recognized expert in decision theory and risk analysis. He has written several books on measurement and measuring risk. His work spans various industries including insurance, finance, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, military, energy, government, tech, and nonprofit organizations. Connect with Doug on LinkedIn, email him at dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com, or learn more about his work at hubbardresearch.com.

Further reading

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

What happens when you follow 100 self-help books to the letter? (with Kristen Meinzer) May 15, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

Why does it seem that many people read self-help books with no intention of actually doing what the books prescribe? Why are self-help books often less clear than it seems they ought to be? What are self-help books actually designed to do? Why do self-help authors continue to write as though their ideas will help everyone when it seems fairly obvious that no single self-help book has ever been a global panacea? Should self-help advice differ based on the gender of the receiver? How does life coaching differ from self-help? How does therapy differ both from life coaching and from self-help? Should therapists fire their clients once the clients' problems have been solved? Should therapists give homework? What are the best and worst ideas commonly found in self-help books?

Kristen Meinzer is a culture critic, podcaster, and author. She cohosts the podcast How To Be Fine (Apple Podcasts, Instagram), formerly called By The Book, which looks at the good and the bad of the wellness industry. She also cohosts the podcast The Daily Fail, which does comedic close readings of the tabloids. Additionally, Kristen is a frequent contributor on NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour.

Further reading

How to Be Fine: What We Learned from Living by the Rules of 50 Self-Help Books, by Jolenta Greenberg and Kristen Meinzer

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

Aligning society with our deepest values and sources of meaning (with Joe Edelman) May 08, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

What are the best ways to define "values" and "meaning"? How can democratic processes harness people's intrinsic values and sources of meaning to increase their agency, cooperation, participation, equality, etc.? To what extent do political rivals — or even the bitterest of political enemies — actually value many of the same things? Might we be able to use AIs as "neutral" third-party mediators to help reduce political polarization, especially on an interpersonal level? How can we transform our personal values and sources of meaning into positive, shared visions for society? Are markets inherently antisocial? Or are they just easily made to be so? Companies frequently invoke our deepest needs and values as a bait-and-switch to sell us their goods and services; but since there must actually be demand to have those deep needs met and those deep values realized, why do companies so rarely attempt to supply goods and services that address those things directly? Assuming there actually is a lot of overlap in intrinsic values and sources of meaning across individuals and across groups, why do we still have such a hard time developing shared visions for society?

Joe Edelman is a philosopher, sociologist, and entrepreneur. He invented the meaning-based metrics used at CouchSurfing, Facebook, and Apple, and co-founded the Center for Humane Technology and the Meaning Alignment Institute. His biggest contribution is a definition of "human values" that's precise enough to create product metrics, aligned ML models, and values-based democratic structures. Follow him on Twitter / X at @edelwax, email him at hello@meaningalignment.org, or learn more about him and the Meaning Alignment Institute (@meaningaligned on Twitter / X).

Further reading

"OpenAI x DFT: The First Moral Graph" by Joe Edelman and Oliver Klingefjord — "Beyond Constitutional AI; Our first trial with 500 Americans; How democratic processes can generate an LLM we can trust."
"Replica Theory" by Spencer Greenberg
Joe's GPT bots for exploring your personal values

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

Separating quantum computing hype from reality (with Scott Aaronson) May 01, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities the technology might afford and encouraging them to invest in research or begin a career in the field? Is now a good time to go into the field (especially compared to other similar options, like going into the booming AI field)?

Scott Aaronson is Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin and founding director of its Quantum Information Center, currently on leave at OpenAI to work on theoretical foundations of AI safety. He received his bachelor's from Cornell University and his PhD from UC Berkeley. Before coming to UT Austin, he spent nine years as a professor in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Aaronson's research in theoretical computer science has focused mainly on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus, was published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press. He received the National Science Foundation's Alan T. Waterman Award, the United States PECASE Award, the Tomassoni-Chisesi Prize in Physics, and the ACM Prize in Computing; and he is a Fellow of the ACM and the AAAS. Find out more about him at scottaaronson.blog.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

Should we pause AI development until we're sure we can do it safely? (with Joep Meindertsma) Apr 24, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

Should we pause AI development? What might it mean for an AI system to be "provably" safe? Are our current AI systems provably unsafe? What makes AI especially dangerous relative to other modern technologies? Or are the risks from AI overblown? What are the arguments in favor of not pausing — or perhaps even accelerating — AI progress? What is the public perception of AI risks? What steps have governments taken to migitate AI risks? If thoughtful, prudent, cautious actors pause their AI development, won't bad actors still keep going? To what extent are people emotionally invested in this topic? What should we think of AI researchers who agree that AI poses very great risks and yet continue to work on building and improving AI technologies? Should we attempt to centralize AI development?

Joep Meindertsma is a database engineer and tech entrepreneur from the Netherlands. He co-founded the open source e-democracy platform Argu, which aimed to get people involved in decision-making. Currently, he is the CEO of Ontola.io, a software development firm from the Netherlands that aims to give people more control over their data; and he is also working on a specification and implementation for modeling and exchanging data called Atomic Data. In 2023, after spending several years reading about AI safety and deciding to dedicate most of his time towards preventing AI catastrophe, he founded PauseAI and began actively lobbying for slowing down AI development. He's now trying to grow PauseAI and get more people in action. Learn more about him on his GitHub page.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

What should the Effective Altruism movement learn from the SBF / FTX scandal? (with Will MacAskill) Apr 15, 2024

Show notes

Read the full transcript here.

What are the facts around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX about which all parties agree? What was the nature of Will's relationship with SBF? What things, in retrospect, should've been red flags about Sam or FTX? Was Sam's personality problematic? Did he ever really believe in EA principles? Does he lack empathy? Or was he on the autism spectrum? Was he naive in his application of utilitarianism? Did EA intentionally install SBF as a spokesperson, or did he put himself in that position of his own accord? What lessons should EA leaders learn from this? What steps should be taken to prevent it from happening again? What should EA leadership look like moving forward? What are some of the dangers around AI that are not related to alignment? Should AI become the central (or even the sole) focus of the EA movement?

William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He's the author of What We Owe The Future, Doing Good Better, and Moral Uncertainty.

Further reading

Episode 133: The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen) — Our previous podcast episode about what happened in the FTX disaster
"Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? – three theories and a lot of evidence" — Spencer's essay about SBF's personality
Why They Do It: Inside the Mind of the White-Collar Criminal by Eugene Soltes

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists
Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant

Music

Affiliates

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