BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Latest Episodes:

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang | BG2 Jun 11, 2026

Show notes

Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO?

They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX’s next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon’s emerging AI compute business, xAI’s model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers.

The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence.

Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways

(03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt

(13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model

(19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design

(26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground

(29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model

(35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?

(37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position

(43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken

(51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier

(01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?

(01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time

Produced by Edward Schmidt & Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBaker

Clark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktang

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

ChatGPT – The Super Assistant Era | BG2 Guest Interview Mar 15, 2026

Show notes

In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter Partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Nick Turley of OpenAI for a deep dive into how ChatGPT became one of the fastest-growing products in history—and what comes next.
They discuss how OpenAI thinks about retention and product metrics, why long-term engagement matters more than raw growth, and how ChatGPT gets the next billion users. The conversation explores the future of AI assistants: moving beyond chat into proactive agents that can take actions, complete long-horizon tasks, and integrate deeply into users’ daily lives.
Nick also shares how OpenAI balances product improvements with breakthrough research, how GPU constraints shape product decisions, and why building for both power users and everyday consumers is essential to discovering new use cases. The episode covers the evolution of ChatGPT pricing, the role of partnerships and distribution, and how OpenAI is thinking about scaling access to AI globally.
A must-watch discussion for builders, operators, and investors trying to understand the next phase of AI—from chatbots to true “super assistants.”

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:00) Nick Turley’s Journey to OpenAI

(02:15) ChatGPT’s North Star: Long-Term Retention

(04:15) Why ChatGPT’s Retention Curve “Smiles”

(06:45) What Drove ChatGPT’s Consumer Breakout

(10:15) How OpenAI Gets the Next Billion Users

(14:15) When ChatGPT Starts Taking Actions

(18:15) Why Coding Agents Came First

(21:00) Beyond Chatbots: The Super Assistant Vision

(24:00) Power Users vs. Casual Users

(28:00) Why ChatGPT Pricing Has to Change

(33:45) Partnerships, Distribution, and Product Tradeoffs

(37:15) GPUs, Scarcity, and the Cost of Scaling AI

(41:30) Shopping, ChatGPT as a Thought Partner, and Code Red

(51:45) OpenAI’s Future Interface, Rapid Fire, AI Jobs, and Nick’s AGI Moments

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, ⁠www.bg2pod.com⁠

Follow:

Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03

BG2 Pod @bg2pod ⁠https://x.com/BG2Pod

AI Enterprise - Databricks & Glean | BG2 Guest Interview Dec 23, 2025

Show notes

In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Ali Ghodsi (Databricks) and Arvind Jain (Glean) for a candid, operator-level discussion on what’s actually working in enterprise AI—and what isn’t.

They unpack why 95% of AI projects fail, why LLMs are rapidly commoditizing, and why durable advantage is shifting to proprietary data, agentic systems, and workflow integration. The conversation dives deep into real-world use cases across finance, healthcare, and retail; the debate over whether we already have AGI; and how AI spend, CapEx, and valuation bubbles will realistically play out. A must-watch for builder, and investors navigating the AI transition inside real organizations.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:00) Consumer AI vs. Enterprise Reality

(02:15) Why 95% of AI Projects Fail

(04:15) RBC, Merck, and 7-Eleven Use Cases

(06:45) What Actually Makes AI Work

(07:00) LLMs Are Commodities—Data Is the Moat

(08:45) Failed AI Bets at Databricks & Glean

(11:00) RPA vs. Generative AI

(14:15) Advice for CIOs Planning AI Budgets

(16:00) AI CapEx and the Revenue Math

(18:00) The Three Camps of AI

(21:00) Making AI Useful Inside Enterprises

(24:30) Why Apps Capture the Value

(30:00) The Future of UI, Voice, and Data Entry

(37:30) Rapid Fire: Winners, Bubbles, Long/Short

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner Oct 31, 2025

Show notes

Brad Gerstner sits down with Satya Nadella (Microsoft) and Sam Altman (OpenAI) to unpack the $3 trillion AI buildout transforming technology, business, and the global economy. They dive deep into the OpenAI–Microsoft partnership, how it unlocked massive scale in the cloud, and what it reveals about the future of intelligence and capital.Nadella breaks down how Microsoft is expanding Azure and Copilot to meet explosive demand. Altman shares his view on progress, power, and the human drive to push boundaries. A candid, energizing conversation about building the future at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

(00:00) Intro
(02:28) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI
(03:19) The Nonprofit Structure and Its Impact
(05:46) Health, AI Security, and Resilience
(07:50) Models, Exclusivity, and Distribution
(08:58) Revenue Sharing and AGI Milestones
(11:38) OpenAI’s Growth and Compute Commitments
(15:21) Compute Constraints and Scaling
(21:27) The Future of AI Devices and Consumer Use
(24:31) Regulation and the Patchwork Problem
(28:01) Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
(37:10) Microsoft’s Strategic Value from OpenAI
(57:15) The Economics of AI and SaaS
(1:04:28) Productivity, Jobs, and the Age of AI
(1:10:43) Reindustrialization of America

Produced by Dan ShevchukMusic by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner Oct 14, 2025

Show notes

Pre-Order Runnin' Down a Dream now: https://a.co/d/0oIPPve

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they unpack the $3T AI buildout, circular revenue red flags, and whether the boom is becoming a bubble. They dive into the rise of stablecoins and the new financial rails reshaping money, the fight over AI regulation in America, and Bill’s next chapter—his new book Runnin' Down a Dream and what it means to build a career you actually love. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:00) Two Years of BG2

(03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book

(06:00) Runnin' Down a Dream

(07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble?

(09:30) Sham vs. Real Transactions in AI

(11:00) Microsoft–OpenAI Credits & Cloud Economics

(13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype?

(17:00) CoreWeave, Hidden Leverage & Demand Risks

(19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI?

(21:45) The MAG5 CapEx Surge: Too Much, Too Fast?

(24:30) Meta’s CapEx Comeback & AI ROI

(25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity

(28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness

(30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical

(33:15) The Colorado & California AI Acts

(35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements

(36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion

(38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money

(41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution

(43:00) Why Visa & Banks Fear Stablecoins

(45:00) Gurley: “I’m Jumping on the Crypto Train”

(46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts)

(49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update

(50:30) Bill’s Book: Runnin' Down a Dream

(53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind

(55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework

(57:00) Who the Book Is For

(59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission

Show Notes:

All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM

Plain English: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst/id1594471023?i=1000728026459

Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner Sep 26, 2025

Show notes

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Brad and Clark Tang sit down with Jensen Huang, founder & CEO of NVIDIA, for a sweeping deep dive on the new era of AI. From the $100B partnership with OpenAI to the rise of AI factories, sovereign AI, and protecting the American Dream—this episode explores how accelerated computing is reshaping the global economy. NVIDIA, OpenAI, hyperscalers, and global infrastructure: the AI race is on. Don’t miss this must-listen BG2.

(00:00) Intro
(0:37) The Year in AI Recap
(3:24) OpenAI Stargate & Nvidia Investment
(8:41) Nvidia Accelerated Compute TAM
(18:55) $NVDA ROI – Glut or Bubble?
(27:45) Roundtripping Claims
(31:10) Annual Release Cadence & Extreme Co-design
(40:45) Future of ASICs & Economics
(53:47) Nvidia's Competitive Moat
(56:55) Elon, X.ai & Colossus 2
(58:47) Sovereign AI & Global Buildout
(1:02:21) The AI Administration
(1:07:43) Chinese AI Chips & NVIDIA’s Role
(1:17:24) H-1B, Talent, & the American Dream
(1:29:33) Invest America & American Right to Rise
(1:37:40) The Future Ahead

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Inside OpenAI Enterprise: Forward Deployed Engineering, GPT-5, and More | BG2 Guest Interview Sep 11, 2025

Show notes

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, guest host Altimeter’s Apoorv Agrawal explores how OpenAI is reshaping enterprise with Sherwin Wu, Head of Engineering OpenAI Platform, and Olivier Godement, Head of Product OpenAI Platform. From T-Mobile’s AI voice support to Amgen’s drug breakthroughs to Los Alamos’ air-gapped supercomputer—this episode dives into the real world of AI at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:50) OpenAI’s Enterprise Mission: Beyond ChatGPT

(06:00) Case Study: T-Mobile <> Voice & Support

(11:30) Case Study: Amgen <> Accelerating Drug Development

(13:45) Case Study: Los Alamos National Lab

(17:00) Why 95% of AI Deployments Fail?

(20:30) Physical vs Digital Autonomy: Scaffolding & Infrastructure

(26:00) GPT-5: Release, Benchmarks vs Behavior

(30:00) GPT-5 Feedback: Instruction Following, Hallucinations, Code Quality

(33:00) Multimodality: Text, Voice, and Video

(35:30) Audio: Realtime API vs Stitched Audio

(38:00) Model Customization & Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT)

(43:00) Rapid Fire: Long/Short Picks

(1:03:00) Highlights and Lowlights @ OpenAI

Show Notes:

T-Mobile Partnership: https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-launches-intentcx-with-openai

Amgen Partnership: https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-amgen/

Los Alamos Partnership: https://www.lanl.gov/media/news/0130-open-ai

MIT AI Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03

Sherwin Wu @sherwinwu https://x.com/sherwinwu
Olivier Godement @oliviergodement https://x.com/oliviergodement

China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025

Show notes

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they dive deep into China’s explosive innovation across AI and EVs, the rise of open-source models, lessons for U.S. competitiveness, the real story on tariffs and trade—and what America must do to win the global tech race. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:20) OpenAI, Anthropic, Private Market Overheating

(03:30) China's Role in the Global Tech Order

(04:50) Why Bill Went to China

(06:40) Dan Wang's Breakneck: Engineers vs Lawyers

(10:30) Xiaomi, BYD, and Auto Innovation

(14:00) Factory Productivity, Automation, and the Jobs Debate

(15:20) Open Source Model Culture in China

(19:30) Can the US Compete Without Reform?

(23:30) Tariffs, Trade Deals, and a Path to Cooperation

(28:00) Waymo, Baidu, and Cost Innovation

(33:00) Is China Winning Global Trade?

(36:30) Debunking the Subsidy Narrative

(38:30) What the CEOs Who Visit China Actually Say

(41:30) China's AI Ecosystem: DeepSeek, Qwen, Alibaba Cloud

(44:00) Open Source in China and the US: Strategic Choices

(48:00) VC Pullback from China & What's Still Happening on the Ground

(53:00) China's New K-Visa vs US Skilled Immigration Policies

(56:30) Gurley: Read Dan Wang’s Breakneck, Watch the Ground Game

(01:03:00) VC Pullback from China

Show Notes:

Open Source Development in China https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/MERICS%20Primer%20Open%20Source%202021_0.pdf

Lei Jun 2024 Annual Speech: https://www.youtube.com/live/l5f3wvLwLXY

Produced by Dan Shevchuk

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

China Open-Source, Compute Arms Race, Reordering Global Trade | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner Jul 31, 2025

Show notes

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss open-source models in China and the US, the compute arms race, tariffs and the reordering of global trade, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(3:55) Open-Source Models in China

(17:54) Future of American Open-Source Models

(26:30) Compute Arms Race

(47:05) China, Tariffs, and Reordering of Global Trade

Show Notes:

Artificial Analysis - Intelligence vs. Price

Mary Meeker Bond Deck

Produced by Benny Beausoleil

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2 Jul 10, 2025

Show notes

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Michael Dell to discuss the Invest America Act, lessons learned from the 90’s, government spending, budget deficit, the AI talent war, AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity, the explosion in AI compute and demand, the markets, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(4:13) Lessons from the 90’s at Dell

(8:37) Invest America Act Signed Into Law

(27:12) Government Spending and Budget Deficit

(36:05) The AI Talent War

(46:25) AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity

(53:42) AI Compute–Explosion in Demand

(1:03:53) Market Check

Show Notes:

Invest America

Next Gen Personal Finance