Bell Curve

Latest Episodes:

The Rise of AppChains | Season 3 Pilot Jan 17, 2023

Show notes

Season 3 | Pilot

Layer One protocols have dominated the value capture narrative since Ethereum's inception, but a new narrative is forming: the AppChain Thesis. This thesis predicts crypto's top applications will not rent land and conform to the limitations of other platforms (e.g. Ethereum) but will launch their own independent chain. An AppChain.

How should applications approach this decision? Where will value accrue? What are the pros and cons? Will applications prove stickier than protocols? These are just a few questions we'll explore in Bell Curve Season 3. Get ready!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(00:35) Meet Myles, Our New Co-Host

(03:35) Why the AppChain Thesis?

(07:12) Season 3 Overview

(14:45) The Fat App Thesis

(18:38) AppChain Tradeoffs

(23:36) Where Cosmos and Ethereum Collide

(26:30) The Market Opportunity

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Follow Myles: https://twitter.com/MylesOneil

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Resources:

Fat Protocols by Joel Monegro

https://www.usv.com/writing/2016/08/fat-protocols/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Winklevoss Twins "Zucked" by Genesis | Roundup Jan 06, 2023

Show notes

This episode of Bell Curve explores the standoff between the Winklevoss twins (Gemini) and Barry Silber (Genesis/DCG). Is there a resolution or will both companies watch their equity slide to zero? We also discuss Solana's future, the bank run at Silvergate, Cosmos-native USDC, the LSD narrative and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Will Solana Survive?

(08:58) Winklevoss Twins vs Barry Silbert

(27:20) Binance Acquisition Blocked & Coinbase’s Good Luck

(30:16) Silvergate Announces $8.1B Fall in Deposits

(39:08) Public Equity Proxy Investing

(45:22) How Bullish is Native USDC for Cosmos?

(53:42) The Liquid Staking Derivative (LSD) Narrative

(1:02:34) Tech Layoffs & the Changing Employment Environment

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2023 Predictions: zkEVM disappoints, L2s vs Multichain, Wallet Wars Dec 30, 2022

Show notes

It's here, our 2023 predictions episode! We debate if the market's bottomed, CeFi vs DeFi market share dynamics, L2s vs a multichain future, Bitcoin's new narrative, the Wallet Wars, MEV as the primary business model and more. Sit back, relax and get ready for the team to drop some knowledge.

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Timestamps

Introduction (00:00)

Have Markets Bottomed? (02:20)

What Projects Gain/Lose Market Share? (17:18)

zkEVMs Disappoint (23:51)

The Multichain Future Debate (26:38)

Bitcoin’s Future (37:25)

Visa & Mastercard Will Double Down on Crypto (39:54)

Ava labs (43:55)

The Wallet Wars (45:10)

MEV & Payment for Order Flow (53:30)

The Rise of Guilds (59:00)

Tech Disruption (01:01:59)

NFTs Become a Core Business Strategy (01:14:04)

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

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Core, from Ava Labs, is more than just a wallet. It’s a free, non-custodial browser extension that gives Avalanche users a more seamless and secure Web3 experience. Download Core today at https://www.core.app/

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S2 Finale: The Next Evolution for DAOs Dec 27, 2022

Show notes

Season 2 | Finale

In this episode of Bell Curve, we recap the best of Bell Curve Season 2. In Season 2 we explored the evolution of DAOs, asking what's worked, what needs to change, and where DAOs go from here.

We break down every episode and our key learnings here. And don't miss the end, where we introduce the theme for Season 3!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:17) S2 Recap, Our Biggest Takeaways

(41:30) Season 3 Preview: The App-Chain Thesis

(43:31) Thanks to Avalanche and Reserve!

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Resources:

ENS website

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Reserve Protocol aims to protect consumers from the effects of high inflation and hopes to one day eradicate it.

It's a self-service, permissionless factory where anyone can build, deploy and govern their own asset-backed stablecoins (RTokens), which can be integrated within DeFi and real-world commerce.

The Reserve App is a user-friendly way for ordinary people to buy RSV stablecoin with their local currencies and use them locally. More info at https://reserve.org/

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Visa Builds On Starkware, Yuga Labs Strategy, GBTC Disaster | Roundup Dec 23, 2022

Show notes

This episode of Bell Curve explores one of the most bullish signs during this bear: Visa is building on Starkware. Visa is the largest payment network in the world, and they just announced they are now building an automatic payments tool on Starkware's ZK-rollup technology. Tune in to find out why this is huge for the industry! We also cover Grayscale's GBTC disaster, how Yuga Labs is going all in on the metaverse and the concept of experiential loyalty. This is a fun one!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:03) Not $10B, $20B! Gary and Caroline Flip on SBF

(07:41) Visa Proposes Automatic Payments Using Starknet

(19:30) “Avalanche Ad”

(20:44) Grayscale GBTC Tender Offer & Liquidity Reflexivity

(30:43) Yuga Labs Hires Activision Blizzard President as CEO

(40:18) Experiential Loyalty

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

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Resources:

Vitalik on Account Abstraction

https://notes.ethereum.org/@vbuterin/account_abstraction_roadmap

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The Secret Behind ENS DAO's Success | Nick Johnson Dec 20, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of Bell Curve, Nick Johnson joins us to discuss his core insights from launching the ENS DAO. This is a behind-the-scenes look at when to launch a DAO, the challenges of decentralized management, token voting, DAO risks and building infrastructure as public goods. My favorite section? The challenges of token economic systems; Nick provides thoughtful insights I haven't heard anywhere else!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro: Pre-Interview

(02:25) History of the ENS DAO

(06:27) Building Infrastructure as Public Goods

(17:41) When is a Project Ready to be a DAO?

(22:43) DAOs vs Centralized Governance

(28:19) “Reserve Ad”

(30:32) DAOs vs Centralized Governance

(32:04) The Challenges of Token Economic Systems

(37:53) Shifting the Overton Window

(42:02) Has All Base Infrastructure Been Built?

(44:38) Gaps in DAO Infrastructure & DAO Evolution

(49:42) A DAO’s Biggest Risk

(50:59) The Value of Community

(54:36) Post-interview recap

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Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/nicksdjohnson

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Resources:

ENS website

https://app.ens-domains.io/

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Reserve Protocol aims to protect consumers from the effects of high inflation and hopes to one day eradicate it.

It's a self-service, permissionless factory where anyone can build, deploy and govern their own asset-backed stablecoins (RTokens), which can be integrated within DeFi and real-world commerce.

The Reserve App is a user-friendly way for ordinary people to buy RSV stablecoin with their local currencies and use them locally. More info at https://reserve.org/

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How to Value L1s, SBF Arrested & Tokenomics Debate | Roundup Dec 16, 2022

Show notes

This episode of Bell Curve explores the art of valuing L1 ecosystems. Should you look a protocols transaction fees vs inflation, # of developers, applications built on top or something else?

We then discuss SBF's arrest, Sushi's fee proposal, the fixed token supply debate, 2023's outlook and more! My favorite segment? The fixed token supply debate - this is about to be a widely contested topic.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:33) Solana’s Outlook and Valuing L1s

(13:39) SBF Arrested and Alameda’s Degen Gambling

(30:15) Drama at The Block

(31:56) “Avalanche Ad”

(33:09) Drama at The Block

(36:29) Sushi’s Fee Proposal & Fixed Token Supply Debate

(46:43) Dividends and Buybacks

(56:02) 2023 Outlook

(1:03:55) A Gold and Bitcoin Thesis

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

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Resources:

Vance's Tweet thread on the broken alt L1 thesis

https://twitter.com/pythianism/status/1600895603512180737

Sushi's protocol fee proposal

https://forum.sushi.com/t/reinstated-increase-kanpai-treasury-allocation-to-100/11475

Felix Zulauf

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Jurrien Timmer tweet on BTC and Gold

https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1559997086912942080?lang=en

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The Crypto Trader's Mindset | 1000x Dec 15, 2022

Show notes

Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3.

In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look for opportunities, the investment landscape post-FTX and our top investing frameworks.

A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:28) Why We Started 1000x

(06:18) Today’s Market Compared To 2018

(16:17) How To Think About Trading Markets

(23:25) Market Structure Post-FTX

(28:05) Managing Risks

(36:30) Investing Frameworks

(48:12) Crypto Is Here To Stay

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Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman

Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Resources

Golden Tree

https://www.goldentree.com/

Cumberland

https://cumberland.io/

Avi's psychology of a market tweet

https://twitter.com/AviFelman/status/1595176484766883843

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Token Value Capture: Moats, Growth and Protocol Fees | Chris Burniske, Fernando Martinelli Dec 13, 2022

Show notes

Season 2 | Episode 6

In this episode of Bell Curve, Chris Burniske and Fernando Martinelli join us to discuss how to build sustainable, value-accruing protocols. We start with this simple question and dive deep into the mechanics behind token value accrual. The group discusses DAO capital allocation, evolving fee markets, the efficacy of airdrops, rewarding labor vs capital, the problem with a fixed token supply and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro: Pre-Interview

(02:28) Balancer: Self-Sustaining Infrastructure

(11:55) Hyperscaling

(18:24) How Will Fee Markets Evolve?

(31:58) Capital Allocation Decisions

(40:48) “Reserve Ad”

(43:12) Airdrops, Identity Solutions and Rewarding Labor

(59:46) Pushback Against VCs & Insider Allocations

(1:06:27) Moving Away From A Fixed Token Supply

(1:12:13) Returning Capital To Token/Shareholders

(1:16:51) Building Moats In Crypto

(1:24:41) Recap: Post-Interview

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Follow Chris: https://twitter.com/cburniske

Follow Fernando: https://twitter.com/fcmartinelli?lang=en

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Resources:

Placeholder

https://www.placeholder.vc/

Balancer

https://balancer.fi/

Dan's UNI-chain thread

https://twitter.com/delitzer/status/1575497730343899136?lang=en

Chris's tweet on VC preferential access

https://twitter.com/cburniske/status/1602181852776878086

The Original Sin

https://www.placeholder.vc/blog/2021/4/1/the-original-sin

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Reserve Protocol aims to protect consumers from the effects of high inflation and hopes to one day eradicate it.

It's a self-service, permissionless factory where anyone can build, deploy and govern their own asset-backed stablecoins (RTokens), which can be integrated within DeFi and real-world commerce.

The Reserve App is a user-friendly way for ordinary people to buy RSV stablecoin with their local currencies and use them locally. More info at https://reserve.org/

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Your Favorite L1 Was Overpriced | Roundup Dec 09, 2022

Show notes

This episode of Bell Curve explores Binance's proof-of-reserves controversy, Alameda's crazy venture portfolio, why Alt L1s were artificially overpriced, Maple Finance's $36M default and more!

My favorite segment? Why the Alt L1 Thesis is fundamentally broken. Did SOL's mooning valuation (underpinned by FTX/SBF) lead to broken relative-value metrics for other L1s? Tune in to find out!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:19) Binance’s Proof of Reserves Controversy

(14:18) Alameda’s Venture Portfolio

(24:59) Why The Alt L1 Thesis Is Fundamentally Broken

(33:25) “Avalanche Ad”

(34:39) Expected Price Action In The Next Cycle

(39:31) Apes vs Punks, Who Wins?

(41:57) Maple Finance Borrower Defaults On $36M Loan

(53:26) GPT Unlocks & Productivity Gains

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