Bell Curve

Latest Episodes:

CBDCs: A Wolf In Sheep's Clothing | Roundup Mar 31, 2023

Show notes

In this episode of Bell Curve, we explore the implications of CBDCs and how governments will use CBDC efficiencies as a veneer for control. We start by discussing stablecoins, how Tether has surprisingly become the "trusted" stable of crypto (or has it...) and the heated CBDC debate. We also discuss startup treasury management, if apps will launch their own L2s or launch on an existing ecosystem, the commercial real estate disaster and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:14) Tether: The Trusted Stablecoin?

(17:05) Startup Treasury Management

(20:39) Are CBDCs Inevitable?

(33:55) Copy-Paste L2s, AppChains and ETH L1

(47:51) ETH vs BTC's Monetary Premium

(52:01) A Commercial Real Estate Disaster

(1:04:08) AI Is Taking Over

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

S4 Premiere: A Journey Into The Dark Forest | Hasu Mar 28, 2023

Show notes

Season 4 | Episode 1

Welcome to Season 4 of Bell Curve, where we will explore crypto's dark forest: MEV. Hasu is joining Mike as this season's cohost. If you don't know Hasu, he is the strategy lead at Flashbots, strategic advisor at Lido, research collaborator at Paradigm and a prolific strategist.

In this episode, we introduce the topics and our thesis for the upcoming season. We discuss the MEV value chain, order flow auctions, how MEV affects security, atomic vs statistical arbitrage, the role of latency, fair ordering protocols and more! Hit subscribe as this will be the best season yet!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:19) The MEV Value Chain

(14:24) Order Flow Auctions

(21:10) MEV in a Modular Future

(28:50) How MEV Impacts the Security of an L1

(31:52) “Rook Ad”

(33:46) Atomic Arbitrage vs Statistical Arbitrage

(42:43) The Role of Latency

(51:10) Fair Ordering Protocols

(54:11) MEV on Solana and Cosmos

(59:36) Regulation

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This episode is brought to you by Rook. Close to a billion dollars has already been taken out of users’ pockets through MEV. Rook built a solution that automatically drives this value back to where it belongs: with the users and applications that create it.

If you use on-chain products, tell your wallet, favorite app and go-to node provider to use Rook; if you're a developer, message us today to find out how to integrate Rook with your product. Follow Rook on Twitter and them a message at https://twitter.com/Rook.

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Balaji's BTC Bet, Macro Chaos and Coinbase vs SEC | Roundup Mar 24, 2023

Show notes

In this episode of Bell Curve, we discuss macro and the crazy decade ahead. The Fed is on the brink of stopping rate hikes, Balaji bet Bitcoin is going to $1M in 90 days, Credit Suisse collapsed, bonds are breaking and the market is a mess. What's coming next and where does the value lie in the chaos? It's all on this episode and it's spicy hot.

We also discuss Coinbase's Wells Notice from the SEC, where value will accrue in crypto and how ChatGPT is gunning for your job. You won't want to miss this one!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:01) Interest Rate Hikes and a Macro Mess

(11:29) Credit Suisse’s Fire Sale

(17:37) Balaji's Bet, the Long-Term Debt Cycle & Macro Cont.

(45:39) Coinbase Receives SEC Wells Notice

(54:02) Where Will Value Accrue in Crypto?

(1:03:11) ChatGPT Chat

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Crypto's Moment: They Swung, They Missed | Roundup Mar 17, 2023

Show notes

In this episode of Bell Curve, we explore the economic fallout from the recent banking collapse, if Powell has pushed things too far and why the crypto bulls are back despite the market turmoil. We just entered a new paradigm shift, and crypto is primed to take advantage.

We also cover the implications of USDC's depeg, how to evaluate protocol business models, Arbitrums $ARB airdrop and more! This is one episode you crypto bulls (and skeptics) won't want to miss.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Has Powell Pushed Things Too Far?

19:07 USDC Depeg and Signature’s Shady Closure

29:54 Arbitrum’s Airdrop, Fundraising and Protocol Cashflows

44:58 Orbit: Abritrum’s New L3 Infrastructure

47:52 Why Do We Need a Commercial Banking System?

53:34 Catalysts for the Next Bull Market

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S3 Finale: Does The AppChain Thesis Hold up? Mar 14, 2023

Show notes

This S3 finale covers the top takeaways from the last seven episodes, where we put the AppChain thesis to the test. Our thesis: Apps will leverage their proximity to customers to capture outsized value, mindshare and pricing power. Did the last seven episodes validate our thesis? Tune in for our conclusion and learnings on Aggregation Theory, product vs distribution, Cosmos' biggest weakness, scaling infrastructure and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) S3 Finale

Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A Bank Run Saga: Silvergate and SVB | Roundup Mar 10, 2023

Show notes

Silvergate, crypto's primary bank, is closing shop. Silicon Valley Bank, tech's primary bank, is in a downward spiral. Two bank runs caused by low-interest rates, duration mismatches and FUD. How did this all start? What do these two banks have in common? And is this a systemic risk to the financial system? We answer all of these questions and more!

If you make it to the deep end (the last ~20 min), we also explore Coinbase's new WaaS offering, Coinbase's business outlook, Voyager's big win and bullish news for GBTC.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) Bank Runs: Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank

(54:14) ETH Denver Narratives

(57:00) Coinbase’s Wallet-as-a-Service & Strategy

(1:07:01) Voyager’s Win, GBTC Update and Politics

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Resources:

How Banks Fail

https://jaustincampbell.substack.com/p/how-banks-fail

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How Bitcoin Will Secure The AppChain Future | Rollkit, Babylon, Stride Mar 08, 2023

Show notes

In this episode of Bell Curve, we explore how shared security will ignite the AppChain revolution. David Tse, Javed Khan and Aidan Salzmann discuss how AppChains require sovereignty, interoperability and security; Cosmos has solved sovereignty and interoperability, but security is still a moving target. Could Bitcoin be the security solution for Cosmos and the AppChain future? Tune in to find out!

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Resources:

Rollkit

https://rollkit.dev/

https://twitter.com/RollkitDev

Babylon

https://www.babylonchain.io/

Stride

https://stride.zone/

https://twitter.com/stride_zone

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Silvergate Crashes, Cosmos Hub Ghosted & Jump Exploits | Roundup Mar 03, 2023

Show notes

Crypto goes bankless. Silvergate - the beleaguered crypto bank - failed to file its 10K, was just ditched by Coinbase (and friends) for Signature bank, and its stock plunged 50% in the last 24 hours. We explain everything and debate what's next for crypto's off-chain payment rails!

We also explore Noble (the Cosmos USDC issuance chain) ditching ICS, Jumps counter-exploit, Bitcoin's new narrative and why we're bullish Web3 gaming!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) Silvergate Crashes: We’re Going Bankless

(18:45) Jump Exploits $300M Wormhole Exploiter

(28:26) Noble Ditches ICS & the AppChain Debate

(38:36) Bitcoin’s New Move

(42:53) Unity Embraces Web3 Gaming & Predictions

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Resources:

Jump Executes Counter Exploit Against Wormhole Exploiter

https://www.blockworksresearch.com/research/we-do-a-little-counter-exploit

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Optimism’s Superchain vs Cosmos Feb 28, 2023

Show notes

Season 3 | Episode 6

In this episode of Bell Curve, Myles and Mike dive deep into today’s most innovative blockspace scaling techniques. They begin by discussing Optimism's recent "Superchain" rebrand and the similarities between the OP Stack and Cosmos SDK.

We also discuss Coinbase's new L2, exploring its potential impact on general-purpose L2s and user demand. This leads to our ongoing thesis that the roadmaps for Cosmos and Ethereum are merging, an intriguing development that we unpack in detail.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:48) The Superchain

(17:07) Cross-Chain Messaging and Shared Sequencers

(20:37) The Role of General-Purpose Chains

(24:24) The Cosmos SDK vs OP Stack

(32:12) Communication Hubs and Value Accrual

(39:05) SDK Network Effects

(46:04) What’s Left to Build

(51:19) How Ethereum has Influenced Cosmos

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Follow Myles: https://twitter.com/MylesOneil

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Resources:

The Inevitability of UNIchain

https://medium.com/nascent-xyz/the-inevitability-of-unichain-bc600c92c5c4

Optimism's Superchain

https://stack.optimism.io/docs/understand/explainer/

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Coinbase's End Game: Keep it BASEd | Roundup Feb 24, 2023

Show notes

This episode covers Coinbase's Base L2 announcement. We discuss why Base could be a game changer, how Coinbase will monetize Base, how Base impacts competing L2s and more! On-chain creativity for Coinbase and the ecosystem is at an all-time high - feeling bullish.

We also explore the liquid staking token narrative, how the SEC's qualified custodian proposal impacts institutional adoption, OpenSea's precarious future, why every project is launching a stablecoin and MakerDAO's end game

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