Arms Control Wonk

Latest Episodes:

Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome Aug 26, 2026

Show notes

Is space based missile defense all gold and no dome? Aaron and Jeffrey sit down with FPRI Fellow Sam Lair to discuss their forthcoming paper about the costs of space based missile defense.

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From Past to Future Aug 03, 2026

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Aaron and Jeffrey have a lot to announce. On this special episode of the show, the two let the listeners in on their future plans, and take a look back at the history of the podcast.

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JL-3, You know me. Jul 16, 2026

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China has conducted a test of its JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile into the open ocean — a departure from its usual practice of lobbing missiles into the desert or splashing them down in domestic waters. Jeffrey and Aaron Stein sit down to talk about why China would test this way: what an open-ocean flight test actually demonstrates, how it mirrors the way the United States, Russia, France, and other nuclear powers have long tested their sea-based deterrents, and what it tells us that China is increasingly behaving like a normal nuclear weapons state. They also dig into what the test suggests about China's internal politics — who benefits from testing in a more conventional way, and what it means when the world's most opaque nuclear program starts doing things everyone can see.

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MOU 404 Jun 30, 2026

Show notes

The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website. In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search for Iran's commitment to not build nuclear weapons, the top result is Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Aaron and Jeffrey work through why Trump was right to quit while he was behind, why continuing the fight wouldn't have changed a single comma, and why, weeks later, you still can't find the thing on state.gov.

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Let the Uploading Begin Jun 04, 2026

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Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the Trump administration's review of nuclear strategy, the case for uploading, and what it all means for the looming arms race.

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From Satan to Sarmat May 28, 2026

Show notes

Russia tested the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which will replace the SS-18/RS-36M Satan.

What's it for?

Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the role of heavy ICBMs, the foundational assumption for counterforce, the rise of orbital bombardment systems (FOBS!!!!!!!!), the collapse of the ABM Treaty and the future of space-based interceptors.

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An Iran War Vibe Check May 09, 2026

Show notes

It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Conscious Decoupling Feb 07, 2026

Show notes

U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

(Just Like) New START is Over Feb 07, 2026

Show notes

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all.

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Oreshnik Again Jan 21, 2026

Show notes

Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test. Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile.

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