ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Latest Episodes:

Oilfield Services Capacity: Hitting the Limits? Jun 14, 2022

Show notes

In the depths of the COVID pandemic, oilfield activity ground to a halt and service companies were forced to shrink. While oilfield activity levels have rebounded significantly, they are still below the pre-pandemic peaks.

This week, Steve Glanville, President and Chief Operating Officer of STEP Energy Services and Shawn Martens, Co-Founder, VP of Operations at IronSight join the podcast.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie ask: How much inflation are you seeing now? Is there a labour shortage for oil and gas workers? If North American E&P companies decided to ramp-up their oil and gas production, would oilfield services be a constraint to growth? Are oilfield service companies likely to invest in new equipment? Are E&P companies early adopters or laggards when it comes to digital technology?

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast includes:

From the Energyphile collection, the vignette of the “Investor Visit”
Peter’s written and audio story from the Energyphile collection “The Investor Visit” when a CEO hosts an investor to visit his oil well in 1915 and provides some timeless advice
STEP Energy Services website: https://www.stepenergyservices.com/
IronSight app website: https://ironsight.app/

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

The Sell-Off: What is Next for Clean Energy? Jun 07, 2022

Show notes

The broad-based Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF is off 60% from its peak in early 2021. Riskier stocks on the clean energy spectrum have fallen even more. For a more in-depth perspective, please see Peter’s commentary titled “What is Next for Clean Tech Companies” that explores how the beat-up equity markets will impact clean energy companies going forward and their strategies.

To start off this week’s podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the recent changes in the oil market, including the European Union’s decision to ban Russian oil and the news that OPEC+ will pump more oil this summer than initially expected.

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast includes:

From the Energyphile collection, the Standard Oil Bulletin about the end of coal.
Peter’s written and audio story from the Energyphile collection “Hubris Defined” - A cautionary tale about arrogance based on the Standard Oil Bulletin of October 1914 about the ease at which coal would be replaced by oil.
The WSJ article “ Silicon Valley Investors give start-ups survival advice for downturn.”

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

North American Gas is Going Global May 31, 2022

Show notes

Natural gas price has been climbing to near record highs in North America. This week, Jackie and Peter talk about the reasons for high natural gas prices now.

Longer term, North American gas markets are undergoing a structural change. To reduce their reliance on Russia, EU countries are turning towards new gas suppliers including the United States. Consequently, a US build-out of LNG export capacity is starting. The pull from more Canadian and US gas going overseas will change the gas markets.

Peter and Jackie finish the podcast talking about the history of natural gas which has undergone many transitions. It started with coal gas and transitioned to nature or natural gas. The United Kingdom was once importing gas from the United States, then Europe grew domestic supply and imported more Russian production. Now the EU is transitioning away from Russia. In the future, gaseous fuels are likely to transition towards clean hydrogen and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Alberta Headline Replay: Politics, Court Decision on Bill C-69, Royalties and CCS Incentives May 24, 2022

Show notes

While the Battle of Alberta is front page news, this week Jackie and Peter take a break from hockey and talk about some other game-changing local headlines.

First, they talk about the political change with Premier Jason Kenney announcing that he is stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP).

Next, an Alberta court found the Impact Assessment Act (formerly Bill C-69) to be unconstitutional. The Act defines the review process for large energy infrastructure projects in Canada.

After that, an update on the Canadian oil and gas industry’s fiscal pulse. With higher oil and gas prices, the outlook for revenue and cashflow for 2022 has increased and can be viewed on the last page of our weekly ARC Energy Charts publication. Today’s higher prices have significant implications for royalties, specifically, speeding up the timeline for oil sand projects to achieve the higher post-payout royalty rates.

Finally, Peter and Jackie weigh in on the debate about who should pay for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – federal and provincial governments, or industry.
Here's the Calgary Herald article Jackie mentions re carbon capture

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Powering the Net-Zero Transition in Canada: A Conversation with Heather Ferguson from OPG May 17, 2022

Show notes

This week Heather Ferguson, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Strategy and Corporate Affairs with Ontario Power Generation (OPG) joins the podcast. OPG burned its last piece of coal in 2014 and has committed to being a net-zero company by 2040. They have also expanded their generation assets beyond Ontario’s borders into the United States.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Heather: How will OPG achieve net-zero by 2040? Is the regulatory process in Canada a barrier to achieving net-zero? What is the state of OPG’s Small Modular Reactor (SMR) projects? How is OPG’s electric car charging business progressing? Are interconnects across Canada a way to achieve net-zero electricity faster and at a lower cost? Who should pay for zero emissions electricity and infrastructure – the rate payer or the taxpayer? How are Indigenous voices and concerns represented as OPG proceeds with new projects?

See OPG’s Climate Change Plan at https://www.opg.com/climate-change/

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

The Next Age of Uncertainty: An Interview with Former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz May 10, 2022

Show notes

This week we are delighted to have Stephen Poloz the former Governor of the Bank of Canada. Stephen was the Bank’s Governor from June 2013 to June 2020 and was at the helm during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stephen just released a new book titled “The Next Age of Uncertainty” that outlines five tectonic forces that, when they interact together, will create more volatility and risk than the past era.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Stephen: How would you compare the inflation we face today to the period in the 1970s? How do higher interest rates work to reduce inflation? Are there other tools the central bank can use to control inflation? During the early 1980s high interest rates used to fight inflation caused a double dip recession, is that a concern now? What actions were taken by the central bank during the early days of the pandemic? How concerned are you about Canadian housing prices? Why do you view the future to be more uncertain and volatile?

“The Next Age of Uncertainty” is available for purchase from numerous retailers including digital and audio. Here is a link to purchase a hardcover on Amazon.ca: https://www.amazon.ca/Next-Age-Uncertainty-Riskier-Future/dp/0735243905

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Leading in a Big Way: The Future of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in Canada May 03, 2022

Show notes

This week John Gorman, President and Chief Executive Officer at the Canadian Nuclear Association (CNA) joins the podcast. John recently wrote an op-ed titled “Examining the role of nuclear in Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan.”

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John: What is the scale and size of the new Small Modular Reactors (SMR)? Is SMR technology safe? What about the waste issue? When will the first SMRs be in operation? Is the electricity affordable? And, do you think Canada is poised for leadership in this new generation of reactors?

To learn more about the Canadian Nuclear Association visit: https://cna.ca/

Please review ARC Energy Institute disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Alberta’s $90 Billion Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) Opportunity Apr 26, 2022

Show notes

This week we welcome to the podcast Jared Dziuba, Oil & Gas Market Specialist, BMO Nesbitt Burns and Rachel Walsh, Carbon Innovation Analyst, BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Jared and Rachel have authored several reports on the topic of CCS, including, “The Outer Limits: Exploring the Cost (Opportunity) of Canada’s Net Zero Pathways” and following the recent news of the federal tax credit for CCUS in Canada, they published “Durable Carbon Offset Revenue Still Needed to Drive CCUS.”

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked them: Considering the new federal tax credit, what carbon price is needed to support new investments? How likely is it that the carbon credit market in Alberta will trade at this level? Could the actual costs for building large scale CCS projects be greater than expected? How is Alberta allocating the subsurface pore space for storing carbon?

If you would like to have access to BMO Nesbitt Burns research on CCS, please contact Jared directly at Jared.Dziuba@bmo.com

Please review BMO Capital Markets disclosure at: https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/

Please review ARC Energy Institute disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

A Conversation with the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson Apr 20, 2022

Show notes

This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada?

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Energy Shock: Now and in the Longer Term Apr 12, 2022

Show notes

This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.

They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

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