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On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break

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If You’re Making More Money Than Ever But Still Feel Broke, Hear This Oct 22, 2026

Show notes

The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper.

We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong.

If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this.

In This Episode We Cover

The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem

The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages

America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation

Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy

Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses

The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending

What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Property Manager Finder

On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The “2nd Wave” of the Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Close w/Brian Burke Oct 20, 2026

Show notes

Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot.

So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go?

He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market.

But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon.

Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit.

In This Episode We Cover

Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming)

Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples

The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop

Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not

What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run

Property Manager Finder

Brian's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor

Praxis Capital

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A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought Oct 15, 2026

Show notes

The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?

I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover.

So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable?

I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction.

If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck.

In This Episode We Cover

Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels

The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move

Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level

Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments?

Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

NAR Housing Affordability Index

Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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Nearly Half of Buyers Get Concessions as Fed Warns Prices Must Drop Oct 13, 2026

Show notes

A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?

We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress.

Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair.

In This Episode We Cover

The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs

The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house

A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high

The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals

A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor

Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low

Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate

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The American Economy Enters Its “Lost Decade” Oct 08, 2026

Show notes

America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”

No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic.

So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do?

Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it.

You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it.

In This Episode We Cover

America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more

The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years

Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion

Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains

The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse) Oct 06, 2026

Show notes

For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.

Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.

If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?

We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.

In This Episode We Cover

Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”

Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability

The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply

Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply

Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?

Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?

Decennial Census Data

Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The Trillion-Dollar Bubble Grows Bigger Oct 01, 2026

Show notes

AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!

We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?

Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.

Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.

In This Episode We Cover

Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry

The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge

The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts

The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past

Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate

Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy

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The Path to 8% Mortgage Rates Sep 29, 2026

Show notes

8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.

After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.

James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?

Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)

Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario

How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit

It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?

Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The Housing Market Correction Is Spreading Sep 24, 2026

Show notes

The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.

The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.

Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions andprice cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.

So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?

In This Episode We Cover

Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow

Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports

The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options

The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure

How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Calculated Risk Blog