Yet Another Value Podcast

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Cove Street Capital on Viasat $VSAT Mar 23, 2021

Show notes

Eugene Robin and Ben Claremon from Cove Street Capital discuss the battleground stock Viasat (VSAT). They discuss the biggest misperception among bears, why they think VSAT's government business is a hidden gem, and how the risk from Elon Musk's SpaceX (and other burgeoning competitors) is overblown.
Some relevant links:
Cove Street's March 2020 Viasat deck: http://covestreetcapital.com/eugene-robin-discusses-viasat-on-the-valuewalk-podcast/
Kerrisdale's short report: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/viasat-inc-vsat/
Cove Street's Kerrisdale rebuttal: http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Satellite-Potshots-ViaSat.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 Viasat overview
8:15 Residential Broadband: the biggest VSAT misperception
15:45 Is Cove Street too close to VSAT?
25:00 Could a big increase in capacity create issues?
31:00 VSAT's all-in cost advantage and the SpaceX risk
36:45 VSAT's hidden jewel: the Government business
43:50 "Stock price bro" and capital allocation bear case
52:50 Why GEO can compete with LEO
1:06:00 Ben's quick run through of lingering points
1:17:00 Quantifying a reasonable bull case

Mostly Borrowed Ideas on Autodesk ( $ADSK) Mar 22, 2021

Show notes

Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas ( https://mbi-deepdives.com/ ) returns to the podcast to discuss his latest research pick, Autodesk (ADSK). The company successfully did the transition from a licensed to subscription business model, and with that transition behind them, Abdullah discusses why the future is brighter than ever and why Autodesk will benefit from an infrastructure boom.
Abdullah / MBI's first appearance on ETSY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muhNdYcNHgk
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Being a generalist versus expert
7:15 Autodesk overview
17:30 Breaking down Autodesk's different segments
26:10 Discussing some more Autodesk bear points
35:50 Can Autodesk use their distribution to launch new products?
40:45 Analyzing ADSK's CEO and their LT targets
53:35 Noncompliant user opportunity
1:02:20 Valuation discussion

Will Barnes from In Practise on Naked Wines Mar 18, 2021

Show notes

Will Barnes, co-founder of inpractise.com, discusses the investment case for Naked Wines. The company's been a huge COVID beneficiary, but despite a nice run Will thinks the market is underestimating the long term potential of Naked Wines and how advantaged the business is against the rest of the wine industry.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
7:00 Naked Wines Overview
12:25 How Naked Wines Angel model works
15:15 Why isn't this Blue Apron 2.0?
22:00 Naked's scale and business model gives them a cost advantage
28:00 Would winemakers leave as they got bigger?
32:30 Can Naked Wines grow beyond the angel wine model?
38:45 Naked Wines' data gives them a moat
45:35 Naked Wines' Postcard anecdote
49:35 Valuation and how sustainable is the COVID boost
52:30 Reasonable 2025 bull case
57:45 Potential "level up" opportunities

Jacob Rubin from Philosophy Capital on $ESGC Mar 02, 2021

Show notes

Jacob Rubin, managing member and CIO at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast to talk about his long thesis on Eros STX (ESGC), how he thinks the stock could respond to a global refi, and the long term upside as they successful integrate their assets.
Disclosure: ESGC is a small cap and has a going concern risk; please do your own work and remember nothing on here is investing advice
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:00 Eros overview
6:00 Pattern recognition from Loral (LORL)
10:15 LORL's upside optionality / Canadian C-Band
16:00 ESGC's solvable credit problem
19:30 Eros's history with short reports
22:40 Taking comfort in Liberty and Eros's CFO DD
29:30 Pushing back on asset value
36:00 Quantifying the post-refi upside
52:40 Pushing back on the STX upside
1:00:30 Pushing back the Eros Now Upside
1:11:40 Quantifying the upside
Philosophy Capital's Website: http://philosophycap.com/

Joe Boskovich on WildBrain $WLDBF Feb 18, 2021

Show notes

Joe Boskovich, a partner at Old West Investment Management, dives deep into his investment thesis on WildBrian (WLDBF), including why he thinks Apple could drive the Peanuts brand to the next level and how WildBrain Spark could be a huge growth story.
Joe's Twitter: https://twitter.com/boskovic64
Old West Investment website: https://www.oldwestim.com/press
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 Quick discussion of IDT and their spins
5:55 WildBrain investment thesis overview
21:30 Devil's Advocate: Haven't these franchises been passed around a lot?
35:00 Could the Apple partnership get the Peanuts brand growing again?
46:35 WildBrain Spark: just another YouTube channel, or real growth asset?
1:00:45 How does this compare to LGF's valuation?
1:10:55 Quantifying WildBrain's upside ~3 years out
1:19:30 Bonus point: could WildBrain go D2C?

Shehryar Khursheed from Return on Capital on $RH's bull case Feb 02, 2021

Show notes

Shehryar Khursheed, the founder of Return on Capital, discusses the battleground stock RH (FKA Restoration Hardware), what Berkshire Hathaway saw in the company, what short sellers missed on the company, and his vision for the company over the next few years.
Return on Capital website: https://returnoncap.com/
Return on Capital Twitter: https://twitter.com/CapitalTalk2
Note that we had brief technical issues around the 22:40 mark of the video; we've done our best to edit those out but there is still a brief gap / jump. For those watching on YouTube, my video freezes for ~5 mins at the 17 min mark.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:35 RH Overview
6:45 What is RH's moat and how do they build their brand?
10:15 How building restaurants reinforces RH's brand
14:55 Endgame for RH's brand
18:00 Can RH's CEO hit his RSU target of $800/share?
19:45 Is RH's 60 gallery target reasonable?
24:40 What do margins look like in the long run?
27:15 RH's international opportunity
31:05 Exploring the bear case further
38:55 What's the RH endgame?
42:20 RH's membership program
45:35 Last hits on RH

Al Grujic from All of Us Financial on Robinhood's issues and $GME squeeze Feb 01, 2021

Show notes

Al Grujic, founder and CEO of All of Us Financial (https://www.allofusfinancial.com/), comes on to discuss the Stonk market. Topics include Robinhood stopping trading last week, gamma squeezes, and how a stock can have over 100% short interest.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 Al's background
4:20 Why All of Us restricted trading last week
9:40 Why couldn't cash accounts buy meme stocks last week?
11:45 How should Robinhood have handled their messaging?
14:45 How can Gamestop (or any stock) have over 100% short interest?
19:25 How up to date is short interest reporting?
22:00 Gamma squeezes and options
23:55 Market manipulation
27:45 Risks of social media pumps going forward
32:15 The "boring" stuff of revamping the clearing system

Mario Cibelli on the $WWE bull case Jan 29, 2021

Show notes

Mario Cibelli, the founder of Marathon Partners and breakout star of the book Netflixed (https://amzn.to/34cim9F), makes his second podcast appearance to discuss the bull case for WWE.
Mario's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1296130870949097472?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 WWE Overview
4:30 Sale of WWE network
9:10 Laying out the upside for WWE
16:20 What if the next domestic contract is a down round?
20:40 Ratings since the move to fox
21:40 How the pandemic will improve the product going forward
26:00 Vince McMahon risk
29:40 What if the WWE can't find the next Rock?
32:35 The time I went to WrestleMania
34:20 WWE's other content plays and expansion plans
43:35 How WWE's rights ownership is an advantage
46:40 Our favorite SuperStars

Elliot Turner on Twitter $TWTR Jan 22, 2021

Show notes

Elliot Turner of RGA (http://rgaia.com) makes a repeat appearance to provide a quick update on Dropbox (DBX), discuss how a due diligence project resulted in him hitting the state limit for wine delivery, and then dive deep into his investment in Twitter (TWTR).
Elliot's first YAVP appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJddlF3__Nw&t=3s
Elliot's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliotTurn
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:15 The time Elliot hit the state limit for alcohol shipments
3:00 Dropbox (DBX) update
6:50 Has Dropbox's pandemic performance disappointed?
10:15 Twitter (TWTR) overview
10:40 Trump ban: good or bad for Twitter?
14:10 Trump ban devil's advocate: engagement down
18:35 Why Elliot flipped from Twitter bear to bull
21:15 Twitter's failed sports rights attempts
25:15 Twitter's substack opportunity
30:55 Mismanagement bear case
35:30 How Twitter captures some of their consumer surplus
36:50 Valuation
40:30 Should Twitter charge for verification?
44:00 What does Twitter look like in a few years?
46:55 How Twitter gets to 500m DAUs
55:20 What to expect from Twitter's analyst day
59:50 Financial metrics to expect from Twitter's analyst day

Jeremy Raper on Haier Smart Home Jan 19, 2021

Show notes

Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We provide an update on his idea from our last podcast (Brag), discuss a potential $300m+ investment he's looking to source, and then dive deep into his later idea, Haier Smart Home German Shares (690D).
Note that BRAG and Haier are both international small cap stocks; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Links
Jeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeos
Jeremy's second YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/PuP_c10B_NI
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:20 Jeremy's $400 million special situation
8:20 Update on BRAG
13:20 Jeremy's new big position, Haier Smart Home German D-shares (690D)
20:20 Discussion of fungibility of Haier's different shares
25:00 What's the right spread?
30:30 Devil's advocate: why can't the Hong Kong shares keep running?
38:20 Devil's advocate: comparison to SPAC warrant arb
41:05 Devil's advocate: geo-political risk
46:00 Discussion of position structuring (naked long or dirty arb)

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