What Goes Up

Latest Episodes:

AlphaSimplex on Embracing the 'Uncomfortable' Jan 27, 2023

Show notes

The rare bright spots for investing last year were those strategies that follow trends in markets rather than fundamentals. This successful approach included the AlphaSimplex Managed Futures Strategy Fund, which returned more than 32% for the year. Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist and portfolio manager at AlphaSimplex Group, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her firm’s strategies, and what she’s expecting in 2023.

“We do really well when there’s massive trends, when there’s dislocation, when things are uncomfortable,” she says. “And last year was definitely uncomfortable, particularly fixed income.”

One development she expects may make investors uncomfortable this year is the likelihood that inflation bottoms out at around 4%, rather than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. At that point, Kaminski says, “the Fed either has to say, ‘well, we’re no longer going to try’ or ‘we’re going to have to keep trying.’ And people are not going to like that either. So I think that that’s the challenge.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fading the New Year's Bounce Jan 20, 2023

Show notes

The stock market got off to a roaring start this year with the S&P 500 at one point clocking a year-to-date gain of more than 4%. Truist Wealth Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner, however, is skeptical of the New Year bounce. He says the possibility of a recession and dwindling liquidity make the rally unsustainable.
Lerner joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s advising clients to take a defensive posture with investments, and what he believes is the best way to execute that strategy. “Being defensive from a stock, bonds and cash perspective is being overweight fixed income relative to equities. And then—in the fixed-income component—keeping it simple: keeping it with high-quality fixed income and not really taking a lot of credit risk at this point.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Savita Subramanian's Earnings-Season Reality Check Jan 13, 2023

Show notes

Get ready for some bad earnings-season news. That’s the call from Savita Subramanian, the head of equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, who is expecting a 10% drop in earnings that will likely keep a lid on the S&P 500 in 2023.
She joined the What Goes Up podcast to give her outlook for the market and explain why she thinks analysts’ earnings estimates are too high: “We are going to see those estimates come down, and it's likely to happen after companies guide more aggressively lower around 2023 earnings. I think where we're going to see pressures are in companies with more labor intensity, like services companies, companies where you're really seeing cost pressure remain high. Those are the areas where we think that we're going to see some downward guidance on margins.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fidelity Sees a Return to Bear-Market Lows Jan 06, 2023

Show notes

The US Federal Reserve’s commitment to higher interest rates and the potential for a recession in 2023 will combine to damage corporate earnings—damage that likely will cause the stock market to revisit its bear-market lows, warns Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.
Timmer joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss his outlook for the year, and explain why he thinks bonds will resume their role as a source of protection for investors in balanced portfolios. His take on stocks? This year “is going be kind of a choppy, sideways market where we’re going to revisit the lows maybe once or twice as the fear grows that there’s an earnings wave coming.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SBF's Love of Risk Dec 30, 2022

Show notes

Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried’s public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund.
Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried’s tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX’s implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX’s failure.)

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JPMorgan's Obituary for Globalization Dec 23, 2022

Show notes

The decades-long trend of globalization has come to an end and the fracturing of geopolitics will have huge implications for capital markets and investing in 2023, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jared Gross, head of institutional portfolio strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how everything from supply chains to industrial policy, energy and defense will feel the impact.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Calendar Won't Cure the Chaos Dec 16, 2022

Show notes

Don’t expect volatile equity-market swings to go away when the calendar flips to 2023, says Edward Jones senior investment strategist Mona Mahajan, who advises focusing on defensive and value stocks in the new year. But there is hope for later in the year, she says, when the market will be looking forward to lower inflation and a stabilizing US economy.

Mahajan joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her outlook for next year and assess the market’s reaction to the latest message from the Federal Reserve to expect higher interest rates for longer.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

TINA's Dead and Bonds Are Back Dec 09, 2022

Show notes

Bonds are back—and they appear to be the preferred asset class as we head into the uncertain economic environment in 2023, according to Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock’s iShares unit. She joined this week’s What Goes Up podcast to talk about her 2023 outlook, next week’s policy decision by the Federal Reserve and the appeal of not only safe Treasuries but some riskier mortgage securities.
“It is so exciting, I think, to be in a world where there are some incredible opportunities staying very high in quality, short in duration, in the fixed-income markets,” she said.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

5% Inflation for a Decade? Dec 02, 2022

Show notes

Expectations that inflation will normalize to near 2% in the near term will “end in tears,” according to Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at brokerage StoneX Financial. He contends growth in consumer prices will remain closer to 5% for about a decade. Deluard joined the latest episode of the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he believes inflation will remain stubbornly high and what that would mean for markets. He also reveals what he calls “Silicon Valley’s Seven Deadly Sins.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FTX 'Horror Stories' in the Bahamas Nov 23, 2022

Show notes

The implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire dealt a harsh blow to the Bahamas’ ambitions to be a hub for the crypto industry, and it’s causing massive pain for locals who treated the now-bankrupt exchange like a bank.
Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of Toronto-based crypto firm FRNT Financial, traveled to the Bahamas to assess the fallout from the collapse. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the bankruptcy’s effect on the island nation it called home, as well as the impact the scandal is having on his business and the entire market.

“FTX was positioning [itself] as a banking alternative, particularly in regions where they operated—like the Bahamas,” Ouellette said. “So there’s even more horror stories of people treating FTX like bank-like infrastructure, and therefore leaving a significant amount of their assets just latent on FTX. Now they can’t get access to them, just like everybody else.”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected