Bitcoin is definitely volatile. If you told me it was going to go down by 50 percent next year, I would hesitantly believe you.
However, there is no way you can convince me that Bitcoin will not hit $500,000 at some point within the next five years.
Think about what’s happening: ETFs are everywhere, treasury companies are holding Bitcoin, there are rumors of central banks buying it, and even an American Bitcoin reserve. It is an asset that will go up. But it may go down before that, and that is unnerving.
You should not put money into Bitcoin unless you commit to not touching it for 5–10 years.
But then you face another problem—Bitcoin is like gold. Unlike apartment buildings, there is no rent, no cashflow. Other coins like Ethereum and Solana have mechanisms called staking that allow for yield. Bitcoin does not. Its beauty is that there are not a lot of moving parts. It’s a vault of security, and that’s pretty much it. Again, just like gold.
There have been companies like BlockFi and Celsius—which are, indeed, traditional finance companies—that lost people’s Bitcoin when they went insolvent.
But now there may be a way to get yield from Bitcoin while keeping it in your custody.
That’s what we talk about on this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast, in addition to covering recent news and making predictions about Bitcoin’s price.
Transcript
Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.
When you’re time locking your Bitcoin, it’s fully self custodial, so you’re never giving up those keys at any point, and that’s what’s so critical.
Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey, the Wealth Formula podcast. Coming to you from Montecito, California today. Before we begin, I wanna remind you there is a website associated with this podcast. It is called wealth formula.com. Lots of resources there, including the opportunity to join our accredited investor club.
Uh, take the opportunity if you, um, are, you know, if you do make over $300,000 per year and, um. And, uh, have a net worth over a million dollars outside of your personal residence to join the club. It’s free to join and it basically just allows you to see deal flow. That’s pretty much it. That deal flow is not seen outside of, uh, the network because, uh, it’s private.
Private placements you’ve probably heard of. Right? So anyway, go to wealth formula.com, sign up for investor Club today we’re gonna talk. About Bitcoin. Again, I know a lot of you still probably are seeing on the sidelines with this lately. The, uh, the price of Bitcoin has been extremely volatile. Well, it’s not volatile compared to what it historically has been, but it’s been volatile.
But listen, I will say this, um, if you told me Bitcoin was going down by 50% next year. I would hesitantly believe you. Okay. But there is no way that you can convince me that Bitcoin will not at some point be worth $500,000 per Bitcoin at some point within the next five years. I mean, that could happen in two years, and then you could end up coming back.
To a hundred thousand dollars. But I, I’m, I’m convinced that it ends up there. I mean, think about what’s happening. ETFs everywhere, treasury companies holding Bitcoin, rumors of central banks buying it. An American Bitcoin reserve is on the table. It’s already exists. It’s just are they gonna actively buy it or they just going to confiscate it and hold it.
Um, now that being said, you know. The volatility is a real thing. And so what I, I think is really important is that you should not put money into Bitcoin unless you commit to it for five to 10 years. Just buy it and forget it. Don’t look at the price. Don’t look at the price. I mean, what I will say is, you know, say a couple years down the line, if all of a sudden you’re hearing people talking about how Bitcoin went crazy and it’s, you know, worth a million bucks or something like that, then yeah, it out sell it.
But. You know, volatility is a real thing here. It is not, uh, something you want for money that you need tomorrow. Okay? Now with that Bitcoin, you face one other problem. It’s kind of, see Bitcoin is kinda like gold, right? Unlike apartment buildings and stuff that we do in a credit investor club or investor club, there’s no cash flow, right?
Um, other coins like Ethereum of in Solana do have mechanisms. Are called staking that allow for yield, but Bitcoin does not because in fact, it’s, it’s beauty in, in many ways, in the way it’s designed is there’s not a lot of moving parts. It’s a vault of security and that’s pretty much it. Right. And that’s why it’s like gold.
I know some of you’re thinking, oh yeah. Well there are some ways, uh, the, you know, you can get yield. There are companies, and you’re right. Whereas companies like Block Fi and Celsius. Um, for traditional finance companies, I think BFI is out of business, I think Celsius as well, basically because when Bitcoin went, uh, way down, they basically, uh, you know, the, the companies folded and a lot of people lost Bitcoin in those situations.
In fact, with bfi, um. I, yeah, long story, but I lost, I lost a decent chunk there too when that happened. Now, in those cases with these, you know, centralized, uh, traditional finance companies offering yield on Bitcoin, the big thing here was that they actually had custody of your Bitcoin. If you have custody of your Bitcoin, you can’t lose your Bitcoin.
Right? That’s, uh, that’s a really important part of this whole Bitcoin ecosystem. And as it turns out, there may actually be a, a way to get yield from Bitcoin while keeping it in your own custody, keeping it in your own wallet or whatever, right. Um, that’s what we’re gonna talk about this week on Wealth Formula Podcast.
’cause we have a guy who’s, uh, creating that entire ecosystem. This is an, uh, og uh, rich Rines. He’s a OG Bitcoin guy. And, uh, a lot of interesting stuff we talk about. So we talk about, um, initially the yield thing, which I think is important. A really useful thing, but then we go on to talk a lot about, you know, the other issues around Bitcoin right now.
Again, if you are, uh, not involved with Bitcoin, I think it’s important, you know, whether or not you buy it to be in the know, learn about this stuff. Um, and, um, this is a good way to do that. So when we come back, rich Rines wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments.
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Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealth formula banking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Rich RINs. He’s a Bitcoin OG from the class of 2013 and one of the key architects behind the core blockchain. Uh, rich previously led the Money Movement engineering team at Coinbase, uh, helping to FCI facilitate over 1 trillion.
Dollars in value transfers and now serves as founding contributor to Core Dow, uh, which is, uh, building a scalable self custodial yield layer for Bitcoin. He’s also the CEO of Element wallet. Which integrate stable coins, encrypted messaging into core ecosystems. Uh, rich brings deep experience in both traditional finance mechanisms, uh, and mechanics, and, uh, blockchain innovation as well, making him perfect person to talk to about how Bitcoin is evolving into a yield bearing asset class.
Uh, rich, thanks for joining the show. Thanks for having me. Really excited to chat here today. So let’s start, uh, with the big picture when we talk about, um. You know, staking in crypto. My, my audience, uh, I think, you know, some people, I would say probably half are pretty crypto savvy by now ’cause I’ve been talking about it since 2017 as well.
However, um, let’s talk about staking and, you know, what does that actually mean and, and why has it been easy for some coins like Ethereum, Solana, but not really. So for Bick Bitcoin. Happy to, happy to unpack there. There’s quite, quite a bit to unpack there. Um. So I think we take one step back and we kind of think about the origins of, of crypto, right?
You, you had Bitcoin, which first came under the scene in 2008, 2009, and it was based on proof of work, right? And proof of work is solving cryptographic puzzles. When you solve those puzzles, you help secure the network. And we’re all kind of familiar roughly with, with how Bitcoin works, energy, scarce, finite currency and, and you know, that was rhetoric genesis of this whole, of this whole movement.
Somewhere, let’s call it 2017, 2018 ish, you started to see a, a shift from people looking at proof of work and something. It’s scalability limitations primarily because you do get a security benefit of proof of work that you do not get the same way with proof of stake. You get a different mechanism, but which is still secure, but not as secure.
And there was this desire to move to a new, um, a new mechanism. And you saw Vitalik a lot of the folks in the Ethereum community really pushing this even earlier. We saw the first wave of, you know, proof of stake change really come to market in the 2017 cycle. And with that, um, and with that change, you now have a different mechanism for security.
And instead of solving cryptographic puzzles to go produce blocks and secure the network, you have weighted governance, ba or weighted voting based on the amount of tokens that you have. Sometimes that also faction and governance, sometimes it does not. That’s actually how you secure the network and you have a large amount of the underlying crypto.
And what was uh, solved during that time period was the classic nothing at stake problem you usually credited with J and team over at Cosmos, but there’s variety, different people that have their own, you know, kind of solution to that problem. But that was really the advent. So you have to kinda look at the history to then think about where, where things move throughout modern times.
Salon and some other chains. You have started through stake and you got other groups like Ethereum that started proof for work and then migrate proof sake at at some later point. But it’s a critical design as, as part of the consensus layer of these protocols. Neither is necessarily better or worse than the others.
There are just different trade-offs. One of the big advantages though, of proof of stake in this case is that you have. Mechanic in which by holding the token and staking it to help secure the network, you receive some economic benefit in the term of staking rewards, which makes these assets productive in a different way.
And if we think about, you know, Ethereum, defi, and its trajectory over the last, you know, five plus years. Dia proof of stake and, you know, yield bearing tokens, uh, et cetera, really is what brought, you know, the, the full blown defi summer wave. So I can go as in detail as you want to, or, or keep it high level.
Well, I, I wanna kind of, um. Drill down a little bit on, on the mechanics of, of staking, because to describe for people, I, you know, I, again, a number of the folks listening have done it, but probably more than half have not. So, and if you could explain sort of what you’re doing in theory there that actually creates yield and how that yield and where that yield is coming from.
Ew, it’s gonna vary based on system, right? But talking about like, just generic in terms of, of proof of stake. You are getting paid by the network to help secure the network. Because if we think about how these networks have their voting power in terms of the right to go create blocks, it is looked at it typically as the weighted average of the, you know, amount of validators in the ecosystem that are part of that, you know, block producing set.
There’s different, you know, um, different paths, whether it’s delegated group stake, approved stake. But in general, those that stake or delegate are helping to secure the network and they receive emissions from the network to go do so. Some blockchains are finite supply, some are infinites. Those, you know, emissions might tail off forever into the future, but you’re getting paid for work that you’re doing to help secure the network.
Where does the payment come from, ultimately? Meaning like are those tokens or coins, are those created by the network to pay or are they coming from some transaction fees? I’m asking in part because I’m wondering if there’s an inflationary element to this also depends on the On the system. Yeah. But if you think about Bitcoin, right?
Right. Bitcoin has block rewards and emissions and they also have transaction fees. Right? Both of which come back to the, the miners. In this case, in most proof of stake systems, you have emissions and transaction fees, both of which that come back to the stakers in this case. They may or may not be involved in block production ’cause those roles are typically separated in these systems versus them being combined in the uh, in the Bitcoin nomenclature.
Many of the proof of stake systems are inflationary, but it is not a system tenet that you must have. The theory there is very similar to Bitcoin in that. As time goes on, you need the transaction fees to overwhelm the emissions for these systems to, to be sustainable at, at, you know, over the long run. If you’ll, let’s, let’s talk a little bit about sort of the, I guess, the limitation with Bitcoin.
Um, if, if you would, again, just trying to maybe create a little bit of an example for people. Obviously we are not proof of stake, we’re proof of work. Maybe kind of just explain, um, you know, if you can sort of just give an analogy on exactly what that is and then the limitation there. What, why there’s a limitation of, of creating yield.
So I think Bitcoin’s simplicity is a feature, uh, not a bug. Um, to be very clear, um, what we’ve, what we’ve, you know, collectively built in, in Bitcoin over the last, you know, 15 years is. A institutional grade settlement layer for digital gold. And I think that in of itself is very different than what originally Satoshi wanted to create with its peer-to-peer money system.
But it actually stumbled upon a very large use case that actually meets a very critical need for this trustless settlement of, you know, quite large scale today. And I think the importance of Bitcoin will only continue to grow over the, the decades to come. And with that, uh, you know, becoming digital gold, there were a bunch of trade-offs that were made when Bitcoin was designed.
So it’s deliberately slow. It’s not programmable. It has very limited expressivity, but that’s one of the reasons Bitcoin has been able to remain so secure for so long, right? It has a very limited attack surface area. And all of those are very great reasons of why, you know, Bitcoin is this, you know, perfect digital gold on top of its finite scarcity, very easy under on it, easy to understand monetary policy, et cetera.
But it does limit the ways that you can go put your Bitcoin to work. And, you know, the, the phrase that I’ve used, you know, in many times is Bitcoin’s been kinda a pet rock for the last 15 years, but an amazing investment. And, you know, something that I’ve been very proud to, to be a part of for, for a very long time.
And the genesis of core was really around, okay, we have this, you know, perfect digital gold. If I want to go do something with my Bitcoin, how do I go do it in a trust minimized way. Allow this Bitcoin to go get used in this decentralized world of applications, whether they be simple yield or whether they be much more robust.
Uh, you know, Turing complete applications. That was really the, the idea of, okay, let’s go, you know, build this layer. And there were really kind of two components that that core created. One is its Bitcoin app Store, so it allows you to build decentralized applications on top of Bitcoin, full expressivity of what you could do and, and you know, any.
You know, full smart contract platform. And the other side, it’s a Bitcoin yield layer. So if you wanna passively earn on your Bitcoin, or you wanna build more complicated yield products on top of Bitcoin, you can now do that, uh, with the core ecosystem. And that was a massive unlock because for all of the, you know, rapid growth that we’ve seen in Ethereum ecosystem over the last five years in particular, we helped or, or we’re helping to actively usher in that wave.
On Bitcoin by making it this yield producing asset for the first time and then allowing for, you know, these different range of, of applications and use cases. It’s no longer in either or. It’s a both dex core. Describe what core is exactly. I know you, you just mentioned it with the, you know, this ability to build, uh, build apps.
But let, let’s, let’s back up sort of like, it’s a, is this sort of a second layer, like an L two layer on top of Bitcoin debt? I mean, where, where does the yield come from in this situation for people who are using it? Yeah. So let me unpack what what core is in more detail. Um, so, so Core is an L one. It’s more technically known as a Bitcoin side chain.
We would argue that there are, are no Bitcoin L twos today. I think maybe as time goes on, maybe we will get to more true trustless L twos, but as of now, nothing fits that definition. It’s the best that you can do is have an L one that’s secured by Bitcoin core has over 90% of the Bitcoin hash securing it.
So we’re easily kind of number one in, in terms of most of those metrics. And we do welcome new technological advancements that will allow, you know, potential lts or even to get to full, you know, Bitcoin security as, as time goes on. And the kind of two real kind of key components to the core ecosystem to go to that next level of detail.
One is, it’s a full L one blockchain that is EVM compatible, which means any application that you can build in Ethereum, you can build on top of core while being secured by Bitcoin, right? It gives you that. Additional layer that that is, you know, also important in this case. And the other kinda critical distinction there is our ecosystem is, is Bitcoin based, right?
So poor is the gas token, but the decentralized protocols borrow lending per trading, you name it. Those are all Bitcoin denominator, right? So the idea here is we to put their Bitcoin to work, not just being a substitute for Ethereum defi. And we do see some different easy behaviors in terms of Bitcoin holders versus Ethereum holders.
On the other side, it’s that Bitcoin yield layer. So as we talked a little bit about proof of work, improved stake. In proof of work only the miners are the ones that receive those transaction fees in the block rewards. So what Core does is it allows you not only to stake your core tokens, but you can also delegate hash, and that’s where that 90 plus percent of the Bitcoin hash comes in.
But you can also stake your Bitcoin so you can time lock your Bitcoin and earn yield and transaction fees from the core blockchain for doing. How those two kind of come into place is now as a Bitcoin holder, you can also earn by holding your Bitcoin, helping you secure the core chain versus just being a core holder who’s helping you secure the chain, right?
So you have these multiple ingredients in the soup of how core is secure, and we reward these different, our consensus participants for the divide. They bring in the network in order to participate. Is there, is this like a, uh, like a decentralized app, or is this a, you know, internet site? Like where, where do you access core from?
So core is the blockchain, right? So you communicate over classic RPCs, but all of that is, you know, connected on the, on the intranet fundamentally. But the way to think about accessing it is you can access it through your favorite hardware wallet. You can access it through browser wallets, through a variety of different applications.
And critically, you can also access it through Bitcoin wallets, right? So how our mechanism works is if you wanna just stay on the yield side and you just want to, you know, earn yield in your Bitcoin, you can time lock it. So the idea is that you probably encumber those funds for some period of time, and then in doing so, you’re helping to secure our blockchain and you receive the block awards for doing so.
And that’s one, uh, participant. We see a lot of institutions do that. High net worth individuals, general bitcoin holders, you name it. But the demand for Bitcoin yield is the most popular, you know, asked in, in all of crypto more than anything else. If you wanna take the next step and you want to, you know, bridge, swap, wrap, et cetera, and come over into our ecosystem, you can do that in your, your favorite EVM wallet, right?
So you have the ability to fully engage in cores, defi, ecosystem using, you know, kind the law of your choice. One that you’ve been, you know, probably familiar with for, for several years. We view these different participants on a continuum. So there’s some Bitcoiners that we can just offer education to today.
They’re not ready to do anything with their Bitcoin yet, and that’s totally fine. There’s a large group of folks that wants to go earn passive yield in their Bitcoin, and that’s where staking comes in. If they want to earn higher yields, but they’re not ready to fully wrap, swap over, et cetera, they can dual stake, so you can earn higher yields by staking both core and.
Then finally, if you wanna come over to the full Bitcoin defi ecosystem, you can do so. There’s 150 plus applications with which you can go participate. So it’s really about bringing people from one end of that spectrum over to the other end as time goes on. Got it. So, you know, again, have a num number of people who definitely own Bitcoin.
’cause we’ve been talking about it since 2017. In some cases, very large sums of, uh, Bitcoin and. So I know a lot of people keep this stuff in cold wallets. Maybe it’s a ledger wallet or something like that. Is there going to be something built into the ledger wallets that will let you sort of just link with core at that point?
So we have full ledger support for core staking, uh, a bulk Bitcoin and core, and it’s frequently done in clear signing as well. This was done with the partnership between the two groups. So Bitcoin is not, again, the mo not the most programmer friendly. So what this does, it demystifies it, it lets you know exactly the different parameters that you’re putting in there.
So with that ledger grade security and, you know, legibility that you would want from your har your hardware wallet of choice. That was a big announcement. I think we put that out there August of this year. So it’s fairly new, but it was a, a big one to, to get out there. Something like 20 to 30% of the world’s Bitcoin is all held on ledger wallets.
So now all of that is, you know, very easy, uh, easy and accessible for, you know, any Bitcoin holder out there to go keep their Bitcoin in cold storage and go or knee on it. And this is probably a good, you know, zoom in on the yield mechanism itself. So when you’re time locking your Bitcoin, you are, it’s fully self custodial, so you’re never giving up those keys at any point.
And that’s what’s so critical. If we think about how people have earned yield on Bitcoin, historically it’s come up through counterparty risk, right? Whether it’s block Fi, Genesis, Celsius, you name it. It would send your Bitcoin somewhere, wrap your Bitcoin somewhere, whatever. And then you may get your Bitcoin plus yield back in the future.
And historically that’s been a bad endeavor. Not always, but historically it has. So it’s critical years. You retain that, uh, that Bitcoin the entire time that UTXL lives in your wallet. So there’s no situation there unless you lose your private key, right? Which is something that no one can protect you from, where you then, you know, lose access to that Bitcoin.
So it’s the highest grade trust assumption that you can have, meaning that you have to trust actually no one, right? So there is no better trust assumption in doing so, and what that does is by maintaining that, again, you can see it in your wallet. All that is very clear and and easy to understand. The yield is coming from securing core’s ecosystem.
There’s no lending, borrowing or anything else going on under the hood because again, we don’t have access to the underlying Bitcoin to do something like that. Even if we wanted to, which we don’t. What kind of yields are, are you get people getting on, uh, on core? I am sure. It depends on whether your, you know, your level of participation, the amount of Bitcoin you have, whether you have core tokens, that kind of thing.
But give us an idea. So you can participate, um, to your point at any point along that, that spectrum. So if you just think, uh, if you just think Bitcoin, you earn a lower rate, it’s like 10 to 20 ish bips. And the idea there is it really pays for your assets under custody fees at, at a major custodian. And the idea behind that is like the minimum attractive yield, if you will.
But what we try to get people to do is to do what’s referred to as dual staking, which is staking both core and Bitcoin in increasing amounts. And the idea there is that we want you to participate in multiple facets of our ecosystem, right? We don’t want you to just participate on one side because critically what we’re trying to do is make core the second asset that Bitcoiners care about, right?
We want this to be the gas token. Of putting your Bitcoin to work. So we want you to participate on both of these sides. And now if we think about the roughly 650 million of Bitcoin that staked on core, more than 40, 50% of that now is actually people participating on both sides. So we still have a lot of work left to be done there, but it’s awesome to see this convergence and that’s a convergence that no other Bitcoin project has been able to find so far.
Where that ultimately is, is the name of the game, right? It’s so hard to convince Bitcoiners to go use a new product or service that’s not Bitcoin. So you have to crawl, walk, run. You have to have incentivization to go make that happen. And then finally the, the math and the underlying mechanism, you know, ultimately needs to make sense.
Can’t be points or yield farming or anything like that. It has to be something that’s sustainable and durable. If you do participate in some of those other things, what’s the potential, you know, oh, sorry. What is the potential yield? I, I’m asking mostly just ’cause I just know that there’s a lot of people in this audience sitting on Bitcoin and saying, well, maybe I can get some yield, but maybe not for 20 bits.
But yeah, no, sorry, I realized that totally for, uh, forgot the million dollar question. Yeah. Um, so if you stake the, uh, max amount of core and Bitcoin, you can earn about 5% in new Bitcoin. So it’s actually very hot. Um, and that’s, it’s on this gradual scale, right? So we want you to do is start with either, you know, small amount of core, no amount of core, work your way up into that top bucket.
And then as you get there, you’re delivering the max value in terms of security and benefit to the core ecosystem. And this system rewards you with a very attractive API, you know, how much is core right now and how much, uh, you know, and just in terms of somebody being able to get 5%, like how much core would they need to buy?
So I can’t really talk about price for, for a number of, oh, uh, a number of reasons. Okay. Yeah. I get, I get it. Sure, sure. Yeah. All, all the calculations are, are easily, um, easily available on, on our docs. But the way to think about it is we have these buckets, so there’s different amounts of core that is required for, for each Bitcoin.
And I think how, how I tend to think about these in a acceptable way to discuss on this podcast is really in terms of like LTVs, where. Lowest LTV is like roughly like 3% of the Bitcoin position. The highest LTV is roughly like 10% of the Bitcoin position. So they’re very attainable amounts of, of core in order to go, uh, acquire to go earn that, that yield.
Yeah. Got it. Got it. Um, you know, let, let’s kind of backtrack a little bit. Like in terms of, you know, there are lending, um, you’ve talked about some of the historical ways people have. Have gotten yield or, you know, abused lending, uh, for such a, an asset that is so secure. Um, maybe volatile, but certainly secure.
It, it seems like interest rates are often so high in terms of borrowing. Um, and then, you know, on the other end. Yield is generally so low. Why is that? Why is that? I mean, it is just, I’m just curious. I mean, in terms of being able to, usually when I’m thinking of the example of block fi, which unfortunately I used at some point years ago, fortunately.
And, um, yeah. And, um, and there, you know, you, the yield wasn’t great, but if you borrowed it was actually really high rate. And I’m thinking in the meantime, when things, when things went to hell, they just liquidated. Massively just liquidated people outta their positions very quickly. So the risk to them was pretty low.
So, so what is the, what is the idea behind that? You know, high interest rates, that kind of thing, just because they can, just because there’s not enough competition, is that basically it? So it’s a multifaceted market, and this is, you know, one, one of the things that we’re ultimately trying to solve here with core’s, um, staking rate.
Is you should have to go beat the staking rate on any lending and borrowing agreement. ’cause that should be your benchmark. And you should have to probably do some sort of a multiple on that because this is, you’re able to go do this with no counterparty risk, right? So if you’re actually taking on counterparty risk, okay, what is that worth?
Right? It’s probably not worth 5%, maybe it’s 10%, maybe it’s 15% right? But this should actually create a material benchmark that that people can use, and we think that’s a net good for the overall financialization of bitcoin. In terms of your question of like, how does this, you know, kind of market come into, come into place?
There’s all sorts of Bitcoin lending and you know, all or not created equal. Some have, you know, very credible counterparties and are fully collateralized. Others are totally uncollateralized and there’s a whole spectrum there. In general, people don’t like to lend out their Bitcoin and if they are lending out their Bitcoin, it needs to be at an attractive rate for them with which they can underwrite.
You know, potentially not having that Bitcoin come back and that, you know, back in 2021, et cetera. Before we had a lot of these blowouts. The market clearing rate for that was a lot different than it’s. I think that is really, you know, an important metric. The other thing that we see a lot of people do is lateralize their Bitcoin to go do stables or other sorts of like low grade farming, et cetera.
So you just have a lot of competitive pieces there that, that are hard to fully quantify, but you just have these market forces that are, you know, fairly inefficient and you know, very few real players in these markets. It says. Yeah. Yeah. Um, let’s talk about, um, you know, we, we’ve talked about core so far.
I mean, what are the real risks? Um, I’ve, I’ve had, I’ve had friends who were, you know, defi, I think maybe like wrapping Bitcoin. And I got no one, one guy lost like $4 million of Bitcoin. And uh, you know, obviously we don’t have those issues because you just mentioned there’s, uh, not an issue of.
Counterparty risk here. Can you talk about what the potential risks are? Is there a risk to the network risk? I mean, can you say that it’s pretty much zero risk, so I, I never say anything is zero risk because Right, right. You know that, that, that’s just not something I like to do. The risk in this case is that core explodes or something else, which extremely unlikely, and you just don’t receive your rewards.
Right. That’s the max loss that you could have in this case, is that. There was like essentially, uh, some core that you could have claimed and you didn’t claim. And then, you know, there was some, you know, categorical issue or catastrophic issue, but that’s a, the highest grade assumption that you can have, right?
You can’t, there’s no case in the system where you do not wind up with the full Bitcoin position, which is ultimately what everyone is trying to protect in this case. And that’s very different than wrapping, swapping, bridging, et cetera, where now you have counterparty risk. Counterparty risk you need to be compensated for, whether it’s smart, contract risk, bridge risk, you name it.
But those are material. And it’s not to say those are bad options, it’s just whatever you are doing, you need to be fairly compensated with which for doing so. And now that you have this way to go do this, um, safely with core. You just need to, you know, kind of price out those other risks appropriately.
And I think there are great markets out there, particularly in core’s ecosystem, where you can go wrap your Bitcoin and go deploy it, but you just have to kind of know what you’re getting into. And how we tend to kind of address all yield questions in general is like if you don’t understand the yield, you are yield.
You have to fully underwrite any protocol that you wanna get involved with, whether it’s core or otherwise. And only when you get comfortable with it should you deploy. But. The best starting area of all Bitcoin yield is deploying core or, uh, deploying your Bitcoin on a, you know, ledger wallet, uh, in core’s Bitcoin staking because you just can’t get anything more secure than that.
It’s a great kind of crawl, walk, run into more advanced tactics of strategies. I mean, I’m curious on like detraction you’ve gotten, um, again, there are companies out there, institutional institutions that are out there that have a bunch of Bitcoin earning no yield. Michael Sailor goes out there, all of a sudden gets 5% on his own Bitcoin, uh, through strategy, uh, that that could seriously change, uh, his own business model.
Uh, do you see those kinds of, are, are you seeing any traction with those big players for Core yet or too early? So, one, there was an education problem in this market generally, and we spent, you know, the last several years helping to educate folks. The new digital asset treasuries or DA meta has actually been very useful to us because what many people have solved in these debts so far is how do I go get assets into the vehicle?
Uh, how do I grow the assets? And not everyone is Michael Sailor and even Sailor has had issues with financial engineering recently. I think it’s very solvable, but in general, you can only financial engineer so far, and then you need to look at additional sources of yield and the benefits that that can bring you.
That’s what we’re seeing is a lot of experimentation, mostly privately, but seen publicly from some of these larger Bitcoin treasuries because everyone wants yield in their Bitcoin. So then it comes down to what’s the best source of yield that I can do and that winds up being core. And if you look at many of these vehicles, they’ve got just very specific covenants, um, that go into the assets that they have and what they can do with those assets.
Almost all are restricted from lending and doing that sort of stuff. So when you, you need yield, that is counterparty list. And that’s where, you know, we, we really shine. And I think that’ll be a very large narrative that you’ll hear way more about over the coming quarters, where that’s really the next competitive battleground for these large Bitcoin corporates.
Bitcoin treasuries, where now you need to go earn that passive yield on your Bitcoin. And I think net net is just the next wave of financialization, right? Like if, you know, as a, as a Bitcoin for a long time, I resisted this. I think we’re at the stage where Bitcoin is a nationally important asset and globally important asset, and now we need to go find ways to go earn more of it and to grow larger and larger Bitcoin balance sheets.
What’s your take on what’s going on in the markets right now? I’m just curious. Just wanna shift a little bit. Obviously you’ve been in this space for an awfully long time and I actually, I was kind of, I should have asked you a little bit about that. 2013, like, you know. How in the world, what, what were you looking at in 2013 that made you think about, you know, getting into Bitcoin, you know, but, um, well, let’s just start with that.
I mean, I should have asked you at the beginning, but I mean, you’ve been in it for a long time. What did you see in this and did it, did it, is this what you thought it would be? You know, so I originally heard about Bitcoin. I wanna say it’s 2010 or 2011. Um, we actually had a college professor that was teaching us all about computer security, introduced us to the Byzantine General’s problem.
I was like, wow, this is a fascinating problem. He is like, oh, this guy’s sakamoto, you know, or group people invented this solution and, you know, it powers this technological Bitcoin. And I didn’t understand at the time, wasn’t interested and like, didn’t, didn’t really fully understand it ’cause I didn’t take the time to really consider the economics behind it and the, the change that this could bring into the world.
By 2013, I reconnected with Bitcoin and that was when the moment clicked. Where I was like, oh, it’s not just the solution to a tech problem, it’s actually an alternatives traditional financial system. It’s a non sovereign store of value. And the implications of that became clear to me of, okay, if this thing succeeds, it will totally re you know, reimagine the, the world around us.
And hopefully we’ll be able to get to a spot where we can change the banking system and hopefully, you know, solve the fiat monetary crisis. Like there’s just so many of these. Globally important shifts and I was, you know, hooked like, and I also had studied in college, both economics and uh, databasing, which is essentially what Bitcoin is.
So it was like a perfect kind of match of a young and, and really interested person in the underlying product. And then kinda having the right, the right skills. By 2017 I was like, this is what I want to do for the rest of my career. And you know, kind of the rest is history. But yeah, it was kind of a perfect aligning of interests.
And you think about like 2013, and I actually, I was listening to an interview, somebody who was interviewing Dan Moorehead, uh, the Pantera Capital, and he was, you know, Bitcoin class of 2013 as well. And obviously, you know, he was, he was already, he already had a lot of money, but he, he was, uh, I guess he was convinced on, um, you know, he got really into Bitcoin and, and tried to try to try to buy $2 million of Bitcoin.
And the problem was he couldn’t figure out how, because there was nowhere to. Like everywhere he looked, it was like a $75 limit or a $300 limit. And that was like his biggest problem. Like you don’t have that issue anymore. And then there’s the issue of, you know, having all of the technical skills that you needed back in 2013.
You know, everything’s pretty easy right now, even for, you know, a guy like me, um, I mean, yeah, hardware, wallets and all that. They sound intimidating to people sometimes when they haven’t used them. These are just not very difficult things. Right. Um, I’m just curious in terms of like your vision, did you, did you kind of see this world?
I mean, I’m just sort of, I mean, I’m just, just curious in terms of what you thought was gonna happen versus what has happened so far. Definitely got it wrong, um, at the time, uh, yeah, back in, you know, the, the early days, um, we were all focused on Bitcoin’s money. And I, I, I think there was a lot of hope at that point, and I get a lot of very expensive coffees from that time period where we, we, we thought that it was gonna be used for day-to-day commerce and like that’s how we were all gonna pay each other and, and I think there was a lot of interest and excitement around that at that time.
And I think that was the original vision, just to be totally clear. And I think. We’ve mostly failed at that, but we again, have created this digital goal that has now come into reality as this perfect digital settlement layer and is only gonna grow in importance. And I think, yes, we never got fully the medium of exchange from store value, but that’s nothing to be shy about.
It’s worth, you know, two plus trillion today is easily gonna overtake the mark cap of gold in the next 10 years, and likely will be the most valuable asset in the world for, you know, probably forever at this point. And it was just a very different like view, you think There’s a lot of the companies that were spinning up around that time.
It was Bitcoin, remittances, Bitcoin, like there was a lot of technology that was based around that. And then in reality exchanges and uh, custodians kinda wound up being the, the two killer use cases in terms of the product companies and then you got wallets, et cetera. But, but that was really kind of the difference in what we thought was gonna happen versus what really happened.
Yeah. And, and you know, it’s, it’s funny ’cause um, there’s still some high profile. Bitcoin guys who still talk about, you know, Jack Dorsey for example, right? Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter, which is now X, but he’s still in the camp, that if you’re not using Bitcoin as payments, then it’s a failure. And what’s your argument against that?
So, and I gave a, a, a longer, more in depth, um, discussion of, of my thoughts on like kind of the zealotry and the usefulness of that. Bitcoin’s early days versus where we are today on, on Breed Loves podcast about a month ago. Um, but good to tune in, kind of check out my, my longer thoughts on that. But in general, I, I just don’t believe in that.
I think this idea of Zealotry is now outlived a lot of its usefulness. I think it was very important in Bitcoin’s early days of you need to will something into existence for it to become true. And when it was just, you know. Few thousands of people, or tens of thousands of people around the globe that cared about Bitcoin versus now where it’s, you know, um, hundreds of billions of dollars in ETFs around the world and corporates and everything else.
It’s just totally different version of, you know, what each individual can do to, to shape Bitcoin, which is both pro and a con, if you will, for a variety of reasons. But I think the idea that it’s only useful as payments is just an outdated relic of a previous understanding. I think that’s what, if you think about who remains relevant in Bitcoin, as time goes on, it’s usually because they adapt their views over time.
They don’t get lost in, you know, something overly specific. And I think what we stumbled upon as an industry was stable coins. And that was really like 2014, 2015, remember correctly the first deployment on Omni. Um, but in general, like we realized that the killer use case for blockchains for payments is just a better dollar.
And yeah, it’s not what we want ’em as Bitcoiners, but. It actually achieves a lot of what we wanted. Right. It’s not totally centralized, not like, but okay, that’s fine. You don’t use gold for payments either. So the idea is you now have this ability to have these things work symbiotically with one another, and that value prop to, you know, billions people around the world to be able to have frictionless, fast, cheap payments that are hopefully uncensorable.
Not always, but there are other options for it to be uncensorable, if you will. Those are still huge wins that I think are very true to the ethos of what everyone was trying to deep back then. But I think it’s all about expanding your aperture and also kind of coming to terms with, with reality, if we were all stuck in our 2015 vision of the world, we would never have grown.
Right. As an industry. And it just really important to keep updating your priors. Yeah. Yeah. It’s interesting. I mean, it feels like now. Even, even Wall Street has accepted this as digital gold, right? And it, it is pretty remarkable. I, I, I’m, I’m, I would say I’m class of 2017 here. Even from then, it’s just what a difference, uh, when, when you look at it.
Um, one, a quick question about, um, your thoughts on these, uh, Bitcoin treasury companies. Um, specifically, you know, let’s look at, uh, MicroStrategy strategy, Michael Seller’s company. Um. You’re buying a lot of Bitcoin. Do you see fundamentally any, any problem or some concerns to the B Bitcoin ecosystem when you have one company potentially owning 5% of the Bitcoin supply at some point?
I don’t personally, there’s a, there’s a lot of conservation around this with the ETFs as well, and just like this, you know, corporatization of, of Bitcoin generally, or even just the centralization of bitcoin. And overall I think it’s good to have, you know, essentially price and sensitive buyers of these assets to help continue to bring Bitcoin forward.
And I think sailors proved time and time again, he is willing to continue to back up the truck and, you know, buy large and larger amounts of Bitcoin and I think is one of the major responsible parties alongside of these ETFs of a lot of the pricing that we’ve seen since early 2024. Bitcoin. And I think the positive pieces of that are, these are also one-way black holes of Bitcoin, right?
Like ETF’s a little different. You have the in out flow, but at least in terms of these corporates, these are a black hole, right? Like sailor’s not selling these Bitcoin anytime soon. And that’s a win, right? It’s a permanent capital vehicle for Bitcoin and these actually spurred this entire craze of all these other folks also going to leverage and acquire more Bitcoin, which I think is net net positive.
Some of these people will mess it up. I’m not really as worried about the debt spiral or the death spiral of a lot of these vehicles. I think if they wind up trading below nav for a large period of time, sale will just buy them. He’s essentially, you know, using dollars that are valued more than a dollar to go buy things valued less than a dollar.
That’s a great trade and I think you’ll see people do that. Um, at size. My only fear of this whole kind of corporatization of Bitcoin thing is related to the miners. I think the miners are very cost sensitive in terms of their means of production. I think over time there is a world which I hope we do not see, which is the only miners that can run their business profitably are governments.
These corporates who essentially do it at a loss or governments right, where you’re willing to do non-economic things to help subsidize the network. That kills a little bit of the centralization of of Bitcoin story, but I think it’s a solvable problem. Should we get there? That’s my, my only concern with it.
But I think on the net positive, you know, net, net trade off scale if you will, these are overwhelmingly positive for Bitcoin. What do you think of this idea of, you know, the, of the cycles and, you know, we had to having, we have, you know, had a little bit of a runup. If you look historically, you know, the high part of the cycle is, is coming now pretty much.
Right. Um. Are those types of cycles and 80% retreats a thing of the past. When you have that, that level of buying pressure from a guy like sailor, institutions, governments, what’s your, what’s your feeling on this? So I think the general shape of the cycles is very different than what it was previous. Like just your buyers and the structural demand is, is so different than what it was in say, 2013, 2017.
And my views on this have been, you know, pretty in influenced pretty heavily by Michael Turpen. And, um, he and I have spent a bunch of time together chat about these sorts of things. He’s also the author of the Bitcoin Supercycle book. So we’ve, we’ve gone into detail on this, you know, many a time. I think the idea of like 80% drawdowns in Bitcoin at this point are pretty much over.
Um, I think you’ll have severe drawdowns, but I think the idea of like 80% or something like that is, is very much in the past. And then you also have just these, not buyers, I mean buyers last resort to some degree in terms of these, these treasuries. But I also think you have essentially nation state puts on some of these treasuries, right?
So like there’s just so much demand for Bitcoin that I just can’t see that same massive drawdown happening. Do we hit the same peaks or is the volatility dampened? That’s a great question. I think in this cycle in particular, it’s probably a more elongated cycle. Like I, I don’t know that we’ll see, you know, the crazy, you know, blow off top in October that, you know, so many are expecting.
But I think we do have several macro pieces working in our favor here. Global liquidity’s increasing. You’ve got rate cuts, you’ve got. Just a bunch of structural shifts in, you know, kind of overall macro forces that I think will be very positive towards the end of Q4 and then through Q1 of next year. So I think we’ve, there’s some amount of cycl, uh, cyclic behavior that I think is unavoidable in any asset, but I think this one is, is probably right, shifted, if you will, there.
Um, Bitcoin obviously year over year is doing well. Um, but it’s, it has been remarkably stable. In the last, you know, few months here, it’s almost uncharacteristic like, you know, there’s such little volatility. It’s almost like it’s less volatile than the stock market. And, um, you know, some people, I, I’ve been in the Twitter or X space talk about this being the influence of quote unquote paper Bitcoin, right?
Sort of this trading of derivatives and that kind of thing. What do you think is going on there? I mean, listen, it is kind of silly to look at like the amount of how much bitcoin’s gone up in a year and say that it’s not doing anything right. But on the other hand, you just look at how much is being bought.
Just from players that we know versus how much is created in a week versus how, you know, and, and you just wonder why is this price not just continuously going up? Any thoughts on that? This paper, Bitcoin conspiracy, that kind of thing? So I’m firmly and like, and I’ve heard people talk like paper, Bitcoin, summer, and, you know, kind, kind of a few things along that.
Um, I don’t believe that, uh, at all, just to be clear, I think it’s. You’re now a multi-trillion dollar asset to go move this thing. You need serious capital flows, right? It’s, it’s not like Bitcoin’s 10 grand anymore. It’s very different. So like you, you need just a very different, you know, orders of magnitude different in terms of buying to go continue to move this.
I think there’s also like an, another piece that’s worthwhile, or worthwhile to dig into is. The way the buyers come on is very different than the way the sellers sell, at least as we’ve seen over the last few months. And you see your MicroStrategy, meta, planet, Nakamoto, you name it, they’re trying to buy Bitcoin without moving the price, right?
Because they are trying to minimize the slippage that they incur. Well, if you look at the hyper liquid whale or some of these other folks who are trying to. Sell their Bitcoin and as fast a poss a, a fast, you know, and evenly inefficient way as possible to go rotate into Ether, Solana or something else.
They are not doing that right. They’re doing the exact opposite behavior where they’re trying to cause price impact, whether it’s to buy it back lower or to do something else, may or may not be manipulation. You know, you, you know, your, your mileage may vary there, but I think that is a very stark contrast of trying to understand these flows.
Because if you’re trying to be very inefficient, you can move the price significantly more, even, uh, with as liquid as Bitcoin is, than if you are not trying to do so. And I think those market dynamics are, are important to understand. Another big kind of, you know, important thing to unpack here is you’ve got a lot of people that have made a tremendous amount of Bitcoin over the last, a tremendous amount of money in Bitcoin over the last 15 years.
You’re now seeing people that have hit some of their price targets that they never thought Bitcoin was going to get to that are now unloading huge amounts of supply, right? Like we saw Galaxy do a sale for like 8 billion over the summer. Like you’re seeing size move in and out, and that has to get absorbed because revenue buyers to sell, right?
Like that. That is how these markets were. And that also has to get absorbed into the system. So you’re seeing Bitcoin, you know, shift from more OG hands to maybe newer hands, newer institutions. And I think that’s healthy. And eventually you’ll get to some new libria and low volatility situations, breed high volatility situations.
Right? And I think where more or less gearing up for, for something like that. Tell us what you think’s next. And when you say that, when you say the low volatil vol, low volatility is growing a five volatility, so I, it’s probably an unfavorable take at, uh, at, at this point, but I’m still in the camp that I think we see close to, if not 200 K Bitcoin by the end of the year.
Um, I’ve been saying this all year, so again, you know, there, there, there’s only so much time left. I think there’s been a more than people would anticipate in terms of like OG selling and then also these, you know, kind of rotations in a deliberate fashion out of Bitcoin. And I think we’re gearing up based on, you know, that stopping to some degree as well of these, some of these more macro pieces starting to work in Bitcoin’s favor.
And I think we’ve already seen gold really break out and Bitcoin hasn’t, you know, caught up to it at least recently. And I think that’s a catch up trade when we made. Yeah. What’s your, uh, what do you, what do you think happens in the next three to five years? Three to five years is hard on a 10 year time horizon.
I’m very confident Bitcoin will be a million dollars or more. Three to five years is really hard because there’s just so much macro that goes into that. Like I feel very confident, you know, in the next two to three years that we easily hit like, you know, two 50. Beyond that, it’s, it’s really hard In between there, there’s so many political pieces that get involved in there.
It’s really hard. Yeah. But on the tenure, I’m, you know, very confident. Yeah. Yeah. It’s a tricky one because especially right now, we have the benefit of having a very pro bitcoin, uh, cryptocurrency presidency in IT, administration and all that, which is really helping. But gosh, I mean, who knows, two or three years from now, we could get somebody who trying to cut.
Cut the legs off. So it’s tricky. But, um, anyway, I, I do appreciate all your thoughts here today, rich. It’s been, uh, good having you again. Just, uh, for our people who are interested in Core, what’s the easiest way for them to learn more? Easiest way to learn more, check out Core down.org or x.com. Still weird to say.
X uh, x.com/cordal under org. Tons of amazing materials there, um, and tons of interesting, you know, a ma community spaces, webinars, you name it. Million different ways to learn about core and then also to get involved, whether it’s in Discord as an ambassador, community member, you name it. There’s millions of core to shoes, uh, around the world, and we’re always welcoming, you know, more folks that want to get involved.
Cool. Thanks so much for joining us. Awesome chat soon. Thanks. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties and now you’re trying to catch up and meanwhile you’ve got a mortgage and private school to pay for and you feel like you’re getting farther and farther behind.
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That’s good news, right? We’re talking about potentially getting yield from Bitcoin in our own custody. May not be a lot of yield, but, um, but it’s, you know, better than, better than just kind of letting it sit and, uh, cold storage doing nothing for the next five to 10 years, um, which I think is probably the smartest thing to do in general.
Um, but if you’re, if you’re, you know, if you want yield and keep custody and you, you know, you’re willing to. Kind of check out what Rich is doing. It’s a, it’s an interesting opportunity anyway. Um, last thing I’ll just say, if you, you know, if you’ve not done so, make sure that you actively try to learn about Bitcoin, because again, if you are sitting on the sidelines, you’re hearing about this Bitcoin things, I don’t want to be a part of it.
Whatever. Do that at your own risk because, you know, um, I think if you look at the next five years, I, I can’t. Think of an asset that I’m more sure is going to be higher than it is today. That’s it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast, this is Buck Joffrey signing out.