Value Hive Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Judd Arnold: Seeking Convexity in Offshore Energy Apr 14, 2023

Show notes

Hey guys! This week I'm stoked to have Judd Arnold on the podcast. Judd runs Lake Cornelia Research Management, a hedge fund and bespoke investment research firm.

Judd joined The Value Hive to break down the Offshore Energy Industry. Most of the podcast discusses convexity, how to find it within the offshore space, and how to compare various convexity levels between industry opportunities.

You can easily tell Judd knows his industry inside out, which makes for a highly educational (and entertaining!) conversation.

If you'd like to learn more about Judd, DM him on Twitter @CorneliaLake.

Finally, thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns to support MIT's mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.

I highly recommend the site for those looking to start a stock-picking fund or learn how others have done it. You'll find essays and interviews by successful emerging managers, service providers used by MIT's own managers, essays MITIMCo has written for emerging managers, and more!

Tegus

Tegus has the world’s largest collection of instantly available interviews on all the public and private companies you care about. Tegus makes primary research fun and effortless, too. Instead of weeks and months, you can learn a new industry or company in hours, all from those who know it best.

I spend nearly all my time reading Tegus calls on existing holdings and new ideas. And I know you will too. So if you’re interested, head on over to tegus.co/valuehive for a free trial to see for yourself.

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR daily in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Q4 2022 Investor Audibles: SRK Capital, HCM Capital, and Bonhoeffer Capital Apr 07, 2023

Show notes

This week we're continuing our Investor Audibles series with Q4 2022 letters from the following investors/funds:

Please let me know what other letters you'd want to hear on future Investor Audible series episodes!

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality.

Mitimco

This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns in support of MIT's mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.

For those looking to start a stock-picking fund or just looking to learn about how others have done it, I highly recommend the site. You'll find essays and interviews by successful emerging managers, service providers used by MIT's own managers, essays MITIMCo has written for emerging managers and more!

Tegus

Tegus has the world’s largest collection of instantly available interviews on all the public and private companies you care about. Tegus actually makes primary research fun and effortless, too. Instead of weeks and months, you can learn a new industry or company in hours, and all from those that know it best.

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

WTI Realist: Taking A Realistic View on The Bull Energy Thesis Mar 31, 2023

Show notes

I hope you guys enjoy my podcast with Twitter's own WTI Realist. We spend nearly 90 minutes dissecting the oil bull thesis, emphasizing under-followed parts of the value chain like midstream and royalty businesses.

If you enjoyed the podcast, please follow WTI Realist on Twitter here. Also, check out his Substack here!

Here's the time-stamp:

[0:00] Meet our guest, WTI Realist
[7:00] The Simplicity of the Oil Industry
[14:45] Understanding the “Full Cycle” in the Oil Industry
[16:30] Should Exploration and Production (E&P) Companies Hedge?
[23:00] Dividends vs Buybacks vs Paying Down Debt: Maximizing Shareholder Value
[30:00] Importance of Reserve Life in the Oil Industry
[34:00] WACC vs Interest Rates vs Discount Rates: Which is the Best Metric?
[41:00] The Royalty Business (PrairieSky Royalty $TSX:PSK): Exploring the Benefits
[49:00] How to Identify the Best E&P? The Role of Management
[1:00:00] Spotlight on Pine Cliff (TSX:PNE)
[1:09:00] Exploring Frontera Energy ($FEC)
[1:16:00] Is the Oil Market Getting Boring?
[1:23:00] More Insights from WTI Realist and Closing Questions

Finally, thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

I highly recommend the site for those looking to start a stock-picking fund or learn about how others have done it. You'll find essays and interviews by successful emerging managers, service providers used by MIT's own managers, essays MITIMCo has written for emerging managers, and more!

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR daily in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Harris Kupperman: Journey Energy $JOY, Patience, and Inflection Investing Mar 24, 2023

Show notes

Hey guys! This week we're excited to have our friend Harris Kupperman (aka Kuppy) back on the podcast. Kuppy is a dear friend and one hell of an investor.

We spend the podcast discussing the idea of patience and boredom as keys to successful investing. We also touch on Kuppy's Inflection Investing framework. Finally, we dive deep into one of Kuppy's newest equity positions: Journey Energy (JOY). Full disclosure, Kuppy owns ~2% of the company and I own shares in my retirement account. Please do your own work. None of this is investment advice.

If you like what you hear, please follow Kuppy on Twitter @hkuppy. Also, check out his Event-Driven product KEDM.com. Give it a free test drive and see for yourself. You might not want to trade without it.

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR daily in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Trader Ferg: Investing in Post-Bankruptcy Energy Plays Mar 17, 2023

Show notes

Hey guys! This week is all about Post Bankruptcy Investing and we have Ferguson Cullen to show us his investing philosophy. He explained his concept of Subsidized Asymmetry, how he tries to not become an emotional Basket Case, investing in Peabody Energy, what are the red and green flags when you invest in bankruptcy ideas, how to find ideas and how he manages his portfolio, they exits and build a position.

[0:00] Investing Journey
[9:00] Using Social Media to Gauge Sentiment
[15:00] Analyzing a Post Bankruptcy. Subsidized Asymmetry
[23:00] Peabody Energy $BTU
[26:00] Emotional Basket Case
[32:34] Red Flags
[38:00] Green Flags
[41:00] Wrong Data
[46:00] Finding Bankruptcy Ideas
[51:00] Exiting a Position
[56:30] Portfolio Construction: Sizing
[1:05:00] More from Ferguson and Closing Questions

If you enjoyed the podcast, please follow Ferg on Twitter @trader_ferg. Also, check out his Substack here.

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Christine Guerrero: An Inside Look at Integrated Oil E&Ps Mar 10, 2023

Show notes

Hey Guys! This week we have Christine Guerrero. She is one of the most unique guests from our Oil & Gas Journey. She has spent actual time working as an Engineer in various Energy Producers. She shares how she got into the industry, why scalability is very important, her favorite stocks ($HES, $APA, $CGXEF & $FECCF), what are good unit economics, and what was like investing in energy companies when oil went negative.

[0:00] Who is Christine Guerrero?
[7:30] Working in Chevron ($CVX)
[13:00] Deepwater Drilling
[16:00] How to Analyze Margins and Scalability
[18:00] Shale Drilling
[24:00] Hess Corporation ($HES)
[30:00] Investing When Oil went Negative: Selling Your House
[39:00] APA Corporation ($APA)
[45:00] Suriname and Guyana
[49:00] Oil Small Cap Investing ($CGXEF & $FECCF)
[1:04:00] Assessing Management
[1:07:00] What are good unit economics?
[1:10:00] How to learn the energy industry?
[1:16:00] Talos Energy ($Talo)
[1:24:00] Different Energy Subsectors
[1:26:00] More from Christine and Closing Questions

Make sure to go follow Christine on Twitter @SheDrills!

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Josh Young: Energy Value Chain Analysis (Offshore & Onshore) Mar 03, 2023

Show notes

This week our guest is the number one performing manager from last year the one and only Josh Young, from Bison Interest. During our conversation we talk all things about the Onshore and Offshore Energy Space, the most common mistakes naive investors make, managing an energy portfolio and position sizing, what are Drilled but Uncompleted and what are some of Josh’s favorite books.

[0:00] Introduction and book recommendations.
[8:00] The onshore space
[18:00] How to approach the onshore value chain ($VTLE, $DVN)
[33:00] Common Mistakes naive investors make.
[36:00] Drilled but Uncompleted (DUC) Wells
[44:00] The Offshore Space
[1:02:00] Portfolio Management: Position Sizing
[1:07:00] Hurdle Rates
[1:17:00] A day in the life with Josh Young
[1:21:00] Closing Question and More From Josh Young

If you enjoyed the podcast, please follow Josh on Twitter here. Also check out his new Substack here.

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Victor Swishchuk: A Beginner's Guide To Analyzing Oil E&Ps Feb 24, 2023

Show notes

We continue our pilgrimage through the oil and gas space and today we have Victor Swishchuck from Letko Brosseau to help us dive into the upstream section of the Energy Sector. Victor gives us a summary of what it means to really understand the energy sector from zero to one. We go from understanding the different types of crude oil to the different types of Upstream Oil and Gas Businesses, to how to value them and the most common pitfalls every naive investor faces when getting into the industry.

[0:00] Who is Victor Swishchuck?
[5:00] Intuition Guided by Experience
[10:00] Studying Credit and Bonds before Equities
[18:00] Analyzing the Energy Sector: From Zero to One
[30:00] What does it mean for Oil to be Sweet, Sour, light, etc
[42:00] Upstream Oil and Gas Businesses
[1:00:00] Valuation: Implied Oil Price by Reversed NAV.
[1:13:00] Common Pitfalls and Where can you get burned?
[1:30:00] How to learn the industry?
[1:47:00] Closing Questions and more from Victor Swishchuck

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Brian Gitt: Busting The Myths of ESG & "Green" Energy Feb 17, 2023

Show notes

Hey Guys! This week is another episode on our 3 Month Journey through every corner of the energy space. Our guest today is Brian Gritt and he is kind enough to help us understand some of the myths surrounding the energy industry. We learn about his background, how he changed his mind from only solar energy to a more diverse portfolio of energy sources, why we should’t demonize fossil fuels, why Nuclear Energy is the best energy return / energy invested source, the downside of wind energy, and why relying on battery metals is a national security issue.

Check out the time stamp below:

[0:00] Brian Gritt’s Background
[3:00] Energy Myths
[7:50] The Process of Changing Your Mind
[15:30] We shouldn’t demonized Fossil Fuels
[23:00] People Embrace Technology when is better.
[28:00] Is a National Security Issue to rely on Battery Metals.
[33:00] Could Electric Utilities become High Growth?
[37:00] Nuclear Energy: Is the best Energy Return / Energy Invested?
[48:00] Wind Energy is too Uneconomical.
[52:00] More from Brian and Closing Questions.

If you enjoyed the podcast, check out Brian on Twitter @BrianGitt.

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality!

Mitimco

This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns in support of MIT's mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

Q4 Investor Audible Series: Praetorian Capital, Gator Capital, & Maran Capital Feb 10, 2023

Show notes

This week we're continuing our Investor Audibles series with Q4 2022 letters from the following investors/funds:

Please let me know what other letters you'd want to hear on future Investor Audible series episodes!

Finally, a big thanks to the following sponsors for making the podcast a reality.

Mitimco

This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns in support of MIT's mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.

Tegus

TIKR

TIKR is THE BEST resource for all stock market data, I use TIKR every day in my process, and I know you will too. Make sure to check them out at TIKR.com/hive.

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