Unhedged

Latest Episodes:

GDP goes negative May 01, 2025

Show notes

The GDP contracted this past quarter – a turnaround from two years of surprisingly steady growth. Baked into that negative number are imports, as sellers rush to bring in goods ahead of tariffs. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter dissect the GDP and what it tells us about the rapidly changing economy. Also they go long soyabeans and long blackouts.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bad shipping news Apr 29, 2025

Show notes

Air and sea freight bookings for international cargo are plunging. As the reality of empty shelves starts to hit consumers, will Donald Trump blink? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out how long the US president can hold out, and wonder, if he does blink, how long it might take to get trade going again. Also they go long Greggs bakery chain and short the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wall Street vs the White House Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

The current administration rode in on a wave of support from America’s traders, lenders and money managers. But that might be changing. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to the FT’s US finance editor, James Fontanella-Khan, about what the titans of Wall Street really think about President Donald Trump. Also they go long AC Milan and short the market.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sell America? Apr 22, 2025

Show notes

With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America’s status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nvidia’s bad day Apr 17, 2025

Show notes

Nvidia shares, along with many others in the tech sector, plunged on Wednesday on news that the Trump administration will be blocking sales of certain technology to China. Particularly hard hit was the outlook for Nvidia’s H20 chip. The company expected the president’s decision to cost it $5.5bn in sales. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter are joined by Lex editor John Foley to discuss the clampdown on tech and the prospects for AI in general. Also they go long turbulence at the Federal Reserve, and short Dutch chip company ASML.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will China back down? Apr 15, 2025

Show notes

The White House has announced dizzyingly high — and hard-to-follow — tariffs on goods from China. And Beijing has responded. But the real trade war may be between the US president and the American consumer. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter dig into the tariffs battle and discuss China’s options. Also, Aiden doubles down on donkey metaphors and Katie goes short performative space expeditions.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The real cost of a trade war Apr 10, 2025

Show notes

Trump folded on Wednesday, reducing his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs across the board, with the notable exception of massive taxes on goods from China. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin unpack the market gyrations that followed, and wonder if lasting damage has been done to America’s borrowing costs. Also, they go long global trade and long battered European stocks.

Join Unhedged for a subscriber webinar about the Trump effect on markets on April 23 at 13:00-14:00 UK time. Go to ft.com/trumpmarkets to register now and send your questions to the team.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Surveying the wreckage Apr 08, 2025

Show notes

As the markets try to absorb and value the announced US tariffs, China has responded with its own levies. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong sum up the old bad news, add it to the new bad news, and divide it by the good news. The result isn’t pretty. Also they go long patience and short buying the dip.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tariffs up. Markets down Apr 03, 2025

Show notes

On April 2, in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Donald Trump announced taxes on almost every kind of imported finished goods. Markets plunged as traders fled equities, and even the dollar weakened. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter go over the tariffs and discuss how they will make it harder for American companies to make money. Also they go long TIPS, and short the fortunes of the American consumer, who will have to pay for all these new levies.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Vibes vs data Apr 01, 2025

Show notes

Markets, investors and companies are all feeling a little bit jumpy about the state of the economy. Surveys of managers, consumers and investors are all grim. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter take a look at those soft numbers and compare them to hard numbers such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey and try to figure out what’s really going on. Also they go short Indonesia’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund and short the president’s plan for “liberation day”.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.