UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Data’s phony trade war' May 14, 2025

Show notes

US consumer price inflation did not show many trade tax consequences. The slowing of tourism-related prices might reflect how visitors are wary of entering the US, but complications in timing Easter’s effect are also relevant. Appliance price inflation is a concern (the fastest monthly increase since early 2022 may reflect firms anticipating trade taxes).

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Blink twice' May 13, 2025

Show notes

Investors are inclined to view US President Trump’s early retreat from trade taxes on imports from China as significant, not just for themselves but as a signal of a willingness to capitulate to other countries. Markets are not inclined to take Trump’s threats of future possible tax increases seriously.

Washington Weekly Podcast: Middle East trip, China trade, Tax legislation May 12, 2025

Show notes

Shane drops by on a Monday to preview a busy week ahead, accounting for President Trump’s highly anticipated Middle East visit. We also spend time recapping the outcome of this past weekend’s trade negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China, along with other notable progress made recently on the trade front. Plus, and update as to where progress on Capitol Hill stands with respect to tax legislation. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Jeffrey Sherman (DoubleLine) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) May 12, 2025

Show notes

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets, against the backdrop of US trade policy uncertainty. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio '“Substantial progress”' May 12, 2025

Show notes

Sino-US talks over the weekend were described by US Treasury Secretary Bessent as making “substantial progress” on trade. Presumably so important a comment was cleared by US President Trump. The only real issue investors care about is how far the US will retreat on trade taxes. Current tariffs effectively halt bilateral trade. An 80% tariff (suggested by Trump) would also effectively halt bilateral trade. A tax of 20% would damage the US economy, but allow trade to continue.

Artificial Intelligence 101: Past, present & future impacts with Zhang Zhang (Polen Capital) May 09, 2025

Show notes

Zhang Zhang is the Head of AI and Risk Analytics at Polen Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, where AI is being under and over-hyped, words of caution to be mindful of, along with common current and anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Of mountains and molehills' May 09, 2025

Show notes

Yesterday’s Anglo-US trade framework was preceded by substantial media spin but ultimately revealed only minimal substance. US consumers are worse off than in January, though better off than a week ago. Some UK exporters get better conditions, some US exporters might get better conditions. Yesterday’s Bank of England’s rate cut was a more important economic event.

Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - The next 100 days May 08, 2025

Show notes

The first 100 days marker of President Trump’s second term has been reached - Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas (UBS CIO), reflects on the administration’s policy priorities and impacts they have had to the US economy, markets, and investment return. We then shift focus to the next 100 days, including a look the notable legislative ambitions being pursued by the White House and Congress. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 34) May 08, 2025

Show notes

Having just returned from an enlightening and productive trip to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Burkhard shares his reflections on the Saudi economy’s progression in recent years, and spotlights future growth potential. Plus, thoughts on the investment landscape and a preview of a big week ahead for Saudi Arabia with high profile visits spanning heads of state to global business leaders.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How far, how fast is the retreat?' May 08, 2025

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Powell pointed out that uncertainty had risen, and that inflation and unemployment might rise. These are all eloquent statements of the obvious. leaving the Fed reacting to data. Central banks that react rather than pre-empt data tend to be late in changing policy. Economic data is also increasingly less reliable, making data dependency more dangerous.

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