UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio '50% on' Aug 27, 2025

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US taxes on Indian imports doubled to 50%. US importers should pay the old tax rate on goods already en route to the US, delaying the effect. With full pass-through and no demand switching, the tax increase would add less than 0.1 percentage point to US consumer price inflation. However, the unpredictability of US trade policy affects global corporations as they manipulate their supply chains.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Jackson Hole takeaways Aug 26, 2025

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Jason reflects on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, and speech delivered by Fed Chair Powell - we discuss what the speech suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy, and the market response. Plus, thoughts on overall market pricing as of late, and what investors have been focused on, along with a look at the latest asset allocation recommendations from CIO, per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Scapegoating the Federal Reserve' Aug 26, 2025

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US President Trump issued a letter purporting to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook—an unprecedented action. After recent comments, investors will inevitably view this as an assault on Fed independence. There are obstacles—Trump already appointed a majority of Fed governors, without changing policy independence. If the dismissal survives the courts, the Senate must confirm any successor. Fed presidents still have policy votes. Faith in these checks may limit the negative market reaction.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A standard Powell speech' Aug 25, 2025

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Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week was classic Powell. That is not a terribly good thing. Powell signaled an increased probability of a September rate cut to counter the damage of trade taxes on the US economy. Markets liked that. But this was essentially the “data dependent” mantra padded with additional rhetoric.

Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi Aug 25, 2025

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Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - NVIDIA’s earnings on Wednesday.

Talking Markets Podcast with Dan Peris of Federated Hermes Aug 22, 2025

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Dan Peris is a Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Income and Value Group at Federated Hermes and has authored several books that are focused on equity investing. Dan joins the 1285 studio in New York to share his thoughts on the current landscape for dividend equity investing, including a look at positioning considerations, and risks. We also discuss the benefits of geographic diversification for equity investors, along with highlight investment themes. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A reluctant defense of Powell' Aug 22, 2025

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In my view, central bank policy would have been better served had US President Trump extended former Fed Chair Yellen's term instead of appointing Powell. Powell has lacked confidence, and failed to articulate a medium-term vision for the economy at a time of uncertainty caused by structural change. The resulting mantra of “data dependency” has not been helpful as data has very obviously become significantly less reliable.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'In what can we trust?' Aug 21, 2025

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The Federal Reserve meeting minutes offered no surprise—a majority of members thought inflation a bigger threat than unemployment, which was obvious given the vote. US President Trump called for a Democrat-appointed Fed governor to resign. In the broader context, investors may worry about whether the Fed still has the appearance of being independent. In a fiat currency system, trust is key and even the appearance of undermining independent policy or data is dangerous—in this case, also threatening the US dollar’s reserve role.

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 44) Aug 20, 2025

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On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on last Friday’s Alaska summit and how investors should link about peace efforts for Ukraine and the region. We also preview this week’s Jackson Hole symposium where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will focus on the themes of changing demographics, productivity and macroeconomic policy. Plus, a preview of an upcoming investor summit in Switzerland which will be hosted by Burkhard.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation, disinflation, and deflation' Aug 20, 2025

Show notes

The UK actually managed to publish some data without delay or suspension. July inflation rates were slightly higher than expected, although disinflation forces are also evident. A 30.2% monthly increase in airfares did much to push the figures higher. This is almost certainly a seasonal adjustment distortion related to school holidays.

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