Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI31: Should you be using a Stop-Loss? or Target a certain level of Volatility? Apr 15, 2019

Show notes

Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:30 – Top tweets

01:12:00 – Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit?

01:17:30 – Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer?

01:23:30 – Benchmark performance update

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

BO16: Crisis Alpha explained Apr 10, 2019

Show notes

Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are ‘short volatility’ strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI30: Should you adjust your position size based on recent volatility? Apr 07, 2019

Show notes

Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder

06:45 – Weekly review of performance

11:00 – Top tweets

32:20 – Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?

41:00 – Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?

46:30 – Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using ‘blue chip’ managed futures mutual funds?

01:07:30 – Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?

01:15:50 – Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?

01:19:30 – Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?

01:26:50 – Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade?

01:31:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

BO15: Why Trend Following is Not a Black Box Apr 04, 2019

Show notes

Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a ‘Black Box’, as if something bad was going on. So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a ‘White Box’, or a ‘Transparent Box’, in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to a much larger degree… so I’m delighted to share this blog post with you, from a conversation I had with Scott Foster, where he also touched on the essential question: Why are there trends, and why ought there be trends in the future?

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder Mar 31, 2019

Show notes

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences

08:00 – Jesse describes his process

12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?

19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing

25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing

28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing

30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing

34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes

36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails

Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel

40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification

42:00 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following

47:20 – Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF

50:00 – Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?

56:20 – Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla

01:00:20 – Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day

01:01:30 – Niels asks what Jesse is reading now

01:03:20 – Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies

01:04:40 – Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today

01:08:45 – Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets

01:11:50 – Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing

01:14:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

RT23: Populism and Market Risks ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 2of2 Mar 27, 2019

Show notes

Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following’s recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investors
The intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing
How opportunities in the markets are changing managers behavior
Why Matthew is happy with the current market environment
Which asset classes currently offer a cheap volatility
What the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol traders
Who in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolio
Why trend following is still successful despite it’s recent difficulties in the market
The meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management

Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL

Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments? Mar 24, 2019

Show notes

On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle ‘parabolic moves’ better.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:00 – Weekly review of performance

06:30 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing?

47:15 – Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM?

56:55 – Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market?

01:06:15 – Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes?

01:10:00 – Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective.

01:12:40 – Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system?

01:15:10 – Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN?

01:19:10 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

RT22: Volatility Master Class ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 1of2 Mar 20, 2019

Show notes

On today’s episode guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analytics
The state of the market now and where it is headed in the future
Why Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatility
The hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populism
Dan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from them
Where Matthew sees opportunities in volatility today
What it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central Banks
Why you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yet

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management

Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL

Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI27: Volatility vs Risk...What's the difference? and are CTAs useless? Mar 16, 2019

Show notes

Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool? What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:35 – Weekly review of performance

05:30 – Top tweets

24:30 – TF needs a better slogan than “crisis alpha” – listeners are welcome to write in.

39:20 – Question 1: Antonio; How should TF work with traditional 60/40 stock/bond investing (and more on the podcast)?

56:20 – Question 2: Kevin; When backtesting do you have a preferred definition of what was and was not a trend or do you apply discretion?

01:03:50 – Announcement: Guest Jesse Felder coming on the show in a few weeks

01:04:35 – Benchmark Performance update

Paper Reference 1 – https://www.ahl.com/strategic-rebalancing

Paper Reference 2 – https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing

Paper Reference 3 – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI26: Is it more profitable to invest longer-term? and Druckenmiller on being greedy Mar 10, 2019

Show notes

Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:35 – Weekly review of performance

06:15 – Top tweets

29:35 – Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken?

45:00 – Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio?

47:20 – Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems?

48:15 – Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.?

58:20 – Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity?

01:03:30 – Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies?

01:09:50 – Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal.

01:15:00 – Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash waiting for new entry signals? How do you adjust positions when new money comes in?

01:19:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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