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    Business

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think – not just what they trade.
    Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
    No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators – revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
    If you’re building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise – this is your edge.
    Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
    🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.

    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan Aug 24, 2024
    Show notes

    Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rich on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?

    04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?

    11:48 - Industry performance update

    18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting

    33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data

    36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement

    48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement

    52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills Aug 21, 2024
    Show notes

    In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills

    09:05 - What causes revolutions?

    12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector

    22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?

    29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?

    37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director

    44:13 - The future of battery technology

    48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?

    52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will challenge the economy

    56:16 - Is the economy stronger than we think?

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski Aug 17, 2024
    Show notes

    Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

    02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?

    05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?

    08:57 - Industry performance update

    17:19 - Connecting the dots

    23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?

    27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?

    30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle

    35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed

    42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry

    47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?

    55:34 - Sticking to the process

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson Aug 14, 2024
    Show notes

    Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow John on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson

    05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?

    08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment

    11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?

    13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations

    18:13 - More art than science

    19:15 - Define your objectives clearly

    20:51 - A multi-strat dominance - pros and cons

    25:14 - Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies

    28:32 - How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio

    30:48 - How Jackson approaches return expectations

    33:13 - Typical number of managers

    34:00 - The role of hedge funds

    35:44 - Their process of selecting managers

    38:56 - What makes an opportunity compelling to them?

    43:28 - How they trade in the systematic space

    45:10 - Quant managers - are they any different?

    47:08 - AI and machine learning in the quant space

    49:25 - How important is transparency?

    50:54 - Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster

    54:07 - Identifying talents in the manager space

    56:18 - How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?

    57:52 - The pros and cons of committees

    01:00:21 - Getting through the committee

    01:02:12 - Advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas Aug 10, 2024
    Show notes

    Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Nick on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?

    03:49 - Industry performance update

    05:37 - An eventful week

    11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context

    18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?

    26:40 - How trend following performs according to data

    29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?

    34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?

    45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?

    50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?

    54:58 - The evolution of risk management

    01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlines

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran Aug 07, 2024
    Show notes

    Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Aswath on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran

    03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?

    04:47 - How AI will impact the economy

    10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks

    14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other

    17:58 - A sticky market

    22:40 - How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?

    31:07 - Are value investor becoming obsolete?

    35:49 - What is the equity risk premium?

    40:28 - How much equity risk premium is enough?

    45:08 - Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets

    50:01 - Inflation and its impact on stocks

    51:51 - Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone

    53:08 - The link between GDP and earnings

    54:31 - The importance of investing globally

    57:35 - Can assets with no cash flows be valued?

    58:27 - Managing the risk

    01:01:56 - Advice for other investors

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan Aug 03, 2024
    Show notes

    Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?

    03:38 - A surprise question for Cem

    06:26 - Industry performance update

    08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?

    14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use

    16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?

    20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?

    24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?

    34:30 - An unfathomable situation

    38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves

    47:14 - More conflict incoming?

    50:37 - What causes stress in the financial systems?

    01:01:50 - The wobble is happening

    01:05:51 - What is up for next week?

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder Jul 31, 2024
    Show notes

    In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder

    03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?

    05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production

    09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production

    17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?

    23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium

    25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries

    31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible?

    34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining

    39:19 - A part of the people

    41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.

    43:46 - Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?

    47:25 - The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry

    52:00 - How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski Jul 27, 2024
    Show notes

    Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?

    03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?

    06:20 - Bills = money?

    09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?

    13:38 - Industry performance update

    16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??

    26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"

    31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity

    35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?

    40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio

    48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk

    53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading

    01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

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    GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan Jul 24, 2024
    Show notes

    Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy

    10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade

    18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?

    27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation

    34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right

    46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election

    51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?

    55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?

    01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


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