ToKCast

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Ep 111: Probability - Reality, Rationality and Risk Apr 06, 2022

Show notes

"Slides" are referred to in this episode. Their absence will not hinder understanding for audio-only listeners - enjoy!

This is a "talk about a talk". Back in 2015 David Deutsch gave a lecture titled "Physics without Probability" which ranged over the history of probability, it's uses and misuses and essentially concluded there was no way in which probability featured in the real world - according to known physics. This is a shocking (for most) conclusion and something many will baulk at. The original talk can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE... and I strongly commend it to all listeners/viewers. Over the years since I have found myself over and again referring to this talk and pointing others to it on the topics of quantum theory or Bayesianism or simply risk assessment.

I do not understand why that talk does not have 10 times the number of viewings. Or 100. It is ground breaking, useful, compelling stuff. It is neither too technical nor too subtle. So this is my attempt to re-sell that talk and provide a slightly different phrasing of what I think is a clear articulation of those important ideas.

People claim to think in terms of probabilities. Physicists speak in terms of probabilities. Philosophers and those who endorse Bayesianism speak in terms of probabilities. How can we do away with it? As an instrument probability might work well. But then so can assuming that your local land is flat even though we know that - strictly - the Earth is curved. Does this matter? If you care about reality and explaining it and hence genuine rationality then you should. Especially when it comes to risk assessment. Towards the end of the podcast I go beyond David's talk into my own musings about various topics - including the notion of risk which has been a request on ToKCast. As always errors herein are my own. If you enjoy this podcast, consider supporting me on Patreon or Paypal. The links for donating can be found on the landing page right here: https://www.bretthall.org

Ep 110: A Tradition of Criticism Mar 19, 2022

Show notes

A version of this podcast without the musical soundtrack can be found here: https://youtu.be/YfVl70treS8

An explanation of a tradition of criticism as an error correction mechanism helping ensure the stability of a society.

Also a defence of free speech and liberty for the 21st century.

Music by Ketsa:

1. "Tradition"

2. "Our Little Blessings"

And for those who need it: a pocket sized response to modern day anti-enlightenment figures who say “the west” lacks culture/tradition. Inspired by "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch.

Ep: 109 ”Objective Morality I: The Principle of Optimism” Mar 11, 2022

Show notes

Morality, like physics, is objective. It is about solving moral problems. In this first part about the nature of objective morality, I discuss "The Principle of Optimism". First stated in "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch in Chapter 9 of that book titled "Optimism" it states that "All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge". These 7 words have the profound effect of linking epistemology and morality and further, providing people with hope that no matter the conundrum (moral problem) then it, like a puzzle in physics, has a solution which we can find if we try.

Ep: 108 Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality”Chapter 3 ”Logic and Critical Thinking” - reflections and analysis. Mar 02, 2022

Show notes

This podcast is about Steven Pinker's new book "Rationality". I read a small number of brief excerpts from the book itself, alongside commenting, criticising and reviewing the content of the third chapter “Logic and Critical Thinking”.

The first half (or so) of this episode is not about the book as much as my personal reflections on academic culture and its treatment of these subject areas "logic" and "critical thinking". I spend some time discussing the global culture of schooling and changes in recent years which incorporate "critical thinking" - following in the footsteps of what has become a fashion in tertiary education. Almost no matter the course a student enrols in now, there is some promise that it will develop one's "critical thinking" skills.

I compare Pinker's vision of rationality with what might be interpreted about that same topic from the work of David Deutsch and Karl Popper. In summary: I found the book highly entertaining in places and an excellent overview of this topic as it might be taught in an Ivy League University in The United States (indeed Pinker says that such a course that he taught was part of the impetus for the book). In terms of being a good substitute for those who might never have been able to afford due to chance, location or cost actually attending such an institution and taking on a course such as one on "Critical Thinking" and “Logic” the book could readily serve as a series of well written university lecture notes. To that end, it is certainly worth the cost for anyone interested in these topics.

If you would like to support "ToKCast" - links for how to do so can be found at the homepage of www.bretthall.org

Thankyou kindly to those who donate :)

Ep 107: What is a good explanation? Feb 07, 2022

Show notes

This is a plain language summary of the most up to date epistemology (as of early 2022) in the tradition of Karl Popper due to the work of David Deutsch about what explanations are. Some of David's earliest work published on this is found in his TED talk here: https://youtu.be/folTvNDL08A . For further details consult "The Beginning of Infinity" - all of it, but especially chapter 1. The search for good explanations does not merely solve our problems and provides us with objective knowledge about all aspects of reality but in a sense might be thought of as among the most profound reasons for human existence.

Ep 106: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 4 “Criteria for Reality” Part 2 Jan 26, 2022

Show notes

In this podcast we cover the supposed hierarchy of knowledge from "the certainty" of mathematical proof through to the "near certainty" gifted to us by scientific arguments supported by evidence all the way down to the lowly philosophical arguments that are a mere matter of taste. We explore more about the tension between realism and its alternatives, how contributing to science is available to anyone (because the evidence is almost everywhere) and finally we end with an exploration of what Popper had to say on some of these topics.

Ep 105: David Deutsch’s “The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 4 “Criteria for Reality” Part 1 Jan 16, 2022

Show notes

In this podcast we cover realism: the common sense claim that there exists an external reality beyond our own minds that we can come to understand through the tools of science and reason more broadly. We compare this to some of the popular rivals that have cropped up over the years out of academic philosophy including, chiefly, solipsism: the claim that "it's all a dream". We explain how we cannot logically disprove solipsism and we can mount no scientific argument, or bring forth evidence, to show solipsism is false. However we can do something more powerful: we can refute it by philosophical argument. This episode is chiefly about what is real, what exists and how we know.

Ep 104: Are We Running Out Of Resources? Dec 26, 2021

Show notes

This episode explores the issue of the finiteness of our “natural resources”, taking an optimistic view of our place in the cosmos and hence where we can expect to find resources. We must first explain what a resource is. Is the notion of a "natural resource" an oxymoron? I explain some of that in a Twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/ToKTeacher/status/1473642761676988418?s=20:

I then go on to explain this position in this short podcast.

I expect to be making more podcasts of about this length or shorter in the coming months and years.

I know some would prefer with this style of podcast that I did not have music underneath the speech. It would be possible for me to release both a music and a non-music version. Let me know if this is something that would appeal to you. Either on Twitter @ToKCast or email me at: brett@bretthall.org

Music in order of appearance is:

Dark Sky - Ketsa

Solstice Sighing - Ketsa

Vibration - Ketsa

Boats - Ketsa

Gloomy - Ostin

We know - Ketsa

Dark Sky - Ketsa

Ep 103: Ask Me Anything #2 Dec 16, 2021

Show notes

This is “Ask Me Anything” number 2: questions from Twitter (mainly) and elsewhere.

Here are the questions/timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:50 How do people learn false things?

06:32 Why does persuasion fail?

15:20 What’s wrong with physicalism?

18:30 How are mind and the laws of physics abstractions?

21:18 What are your favourite chapters from David’s books?

26:46 Are facts theory laden?

27:49 Is a fact “fallibly true”?

30:24 What are your thoughts on the mind-body problem?

34:50 How has Deutsch improved on Popper?

40:05 What is the most difficult idea to explain from David’s books?

44:58 Do the ideas in “BoI” trace back to Judeo-Christian values?

48:32 What is the plan for the future spreading of David Deutsch’s ideas?

51:38 How do we resolve the apparent conflict between “incremental change” and “rapid progress”?

54:27 What parts of David’s work do you disagree with? What did David Deutsch get wrong?

58:24 Why isn’t morality about suffering?

01:03:50 Are free will, consciousness and explanatory knowledge fundamentally tied?

01:06:10 Does Ayn Rand’s objectivism follow from Deutsch/Popper?

01:13:52 If a problem is a conflict between ideas, what is the conflict with the problem of the universe’s initial conditions?

01:15:52 How can we reconcile the subjectivity of problems with the objectivity of knowledge?

01:18:04 Can’t machines create new choices through abstraction?

01:20:58 Did Popper/Deutsch influence your libertarianism?

01:26:22 What is the beef between Popper/Deutsch and the formal education system?

01:27:02 Are there Popperian resources on child rearing?

01:31:59 Are there pre-requisites for understanding “The Beginning of Infinity”?

01:35:29 What other books can help with thinking?

01:36:10 If a person has struggled academically, what is to blame?

01:40:21 Do you have any (other!) book recommendations?

01:44:32 Doesn’t quantum mechanics and the multiverse violate common sense and logic?

Ep 102: The Thin Veneer Dec 14, 2021

Show notes

Yes, the AMA will be delayed until episode 103 because of some wonderful remarks made by Joe Rogan that resonated so well with some of what I like to say about the multiverse, our place in it, and what we come to understand about it and how.

Credit to the Joe Rogan Experience #1746 with Blaire White where Joe explains his understanding of our ability to experience reality. I compare this to what we understand from physics and our best understanding of the philosophy of science.
Music in order of tracks is:
Ketsa - Rewinding Time (First half of video)
Ketsa - Heart Science (Second half of video).
Both tracks available at https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Ketsa#contact-artist

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