Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Stocks Are EXPENSIVE, Yet A New Buy Signal Just Triggered | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Oct 12, 2024

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In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023. Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue? Stocks are richly priced here. And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal). So investors need to determine how much risk they want to take to pursue upside from here vs the growing risks of overvaluation. Lance and I discuss this, as well as this week's new inflation data, bonds and the wisdom of Howard Marks in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #inflation #technicalanalysis

David Rosenberg: Boomers Sleepwalking Into A Bear Market + Recession Oct 10, 2024

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2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation

Bill Fleckenstein: Is A Bond Market Revolt Underway? Oct 08, 2024

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2024 has been a good year for the bulls. And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. Bill is watching bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to revolt against the Fed's rate new rate cutting plans. He's been waiting for years for the moment when bond investors lose confidence in central planners' ability to tame inflation as well as reign in deficit spending. Bill thinks we might have just reached that point. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #interestrates #bearmarket

Gold Could Hit $6,000/oz If This Cycle Acts Like Past Ones | Brien Lundin Oct 06, 2024

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Gold has been one of the best performing assets in 2024 so far. It's up over 27% since the start of the year and recently hit a record high. And with the central banks of the worlds largest economies -- the US, China and the EU -- now all cutting interest rates, will that add further fuel to gold's breakout? For answers to all things gold, silver and the companies that mine them, we're fortunate to speak with Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, publisher of GoldNewsleter.com and producer of the excellent New Orleans Investment Conference. Brien thinks that, if this current gold bull cycle acts like previous ones in history, that should bring the price of gold eventually up to $6,000/oz (or higher) REGISTER FOR BRIEN'S CONFERENCE at https://neworleansconference.com/tm1 #goldprice #silverprice #preciousmetals

Short-Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Oct 05, 2024

Show notes

While there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken. Other than that, though, the developments this week have been largely favorable for the economy. Very strong jobs numbers (if we can believe them), a resolution to the longshoremen strike that threatened to paralyze ports along the US Gulf and East coasts, and a potential resumption of student loan forgiveness. We talk about all that and more, including Lance's firm's latest trades, in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobsreport #liquidity #bearmarket

Markets Unprepared For West-To-East Capital Repatriation | Louis Gave Oct 03, 2024

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While much of Wall Street's focus over past recent years has been on the Big US Tech stocks, aka the Magnificent 7, there are an increasing number of seismic developments happening internationally investors need to be aware of. For example, emerging market stocks have positively trounced tech stocks since June. And to name just a few others: - China is now firing i's monetary and fiscal bazookas with gusto. - India is now the world's fastest growing major economy & its stock market is booming. - Japan just elected a new prime minister whose hawkish policies might end the yen/dollar carry trade. - And of course, the escalation of hostilities in the MiddleEast threaten to inject a lot more uncertainty into geopolitical and global trade. Which international trends are the most important for investors to track? What are the biggest risks? And where are the biggest opportunities? To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #emergingmarkets #chinastocks #carrytrade

Iran vs Israel: How Far Will It Escalate? | RANE's Ryan Bohl Oct 03, 2024

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An interview with RANE's Middle East geopolitical analyst to address: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to Tuesday's missile attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be? - What will it take to de-escalate the situation? Ryan will take live audience Q&A near the end of the interview WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #israel #iran #worldwar3

US & China Liquidity To Keep Boosting Stocks From Here? | Jan van Eck Oct 01, 2024

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I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of having a second appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. As we did last quarter, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his latest macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. Follow Jan at https://vaneck.com/ Or on x/Twitter at @janvaneck @janvaneck Or on LinkedIN athttps://www.linkedin.com/in/janfvaneck/ SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #chinastocks #china #interestrates

Our Food Is Killing Us. Regenerative Farming Fixes This. | Joel Salatin Sep 29, 2024

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Few things are more valuable in life than the food we eat and the soil that grows it. So today, we have the great honor of talking with Joel Salatin. Named "the most famous farmer in America", Joel has spent his career advocating for sustainable farming practices, and pioneering models that show how food can be grown & raised in ways that: - are regenerative to our topsoils - are more humane to livestock - produce much healthier, tastier food - contribute profitably to the local economy Who wouldn't want that? Well, the government and Big Ag for starters. Joel refers to himself a "lunatic farmer" because so many of the changes he thinks our food systems need are either illegal under current law or mightily resisted by the deep-pocketed corporations controlling production and distribution. But that doesn't stop him from his passion of inspiring others to take a better path. He co-owns and operates, with his family, Polyface Farm in Swoope, Virginia. Featured in the New York Times bestseller Omnivore’s Dilemma and award-winning documentary Food Inc., the farm services more than 5,000 families, 50 restaurants, 10 retail outlets, and a farmers’ market with produce and pastured beef, pork, poultry, as well as forestry products. On the farm, Joel and his staff pilot new practices, mentor young farmers, educate the public, and produce an excellent set of workshops for those looking to truly 'get their hands dirty' learning how to farm sustainably. He's a true hero to many, including me. And I predict he'll be one of yours, too, by the end of this discussion. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #farming #foodproduction #sustainablefarming

Will Stocks Melt-up To S&P 6000+ Soon? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Sep 28, 2024

Show notes

In the wake of interest rates cuts now coming from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of China, could the stock market experience a melt-up to S&P 600 -- or higher -- by the end of the year? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks it's quite possible, especially given stocks' recent technical breakout. We talk in depth about that in this week's Market Recap, as well as the latest inflation data (PCE), the recent revisions to GDP, GDI and personal savings, and the continued risk to the Yen/Dollar carry trade now that a more hawkish Japanese Prime Minister has been elected. ONLY 48 HOURS LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bullmarket #S&P6000 #interestratecut

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