"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg

Latest Episodes:

VCs Debate: Tariffs, Taxation, Supply Chain | Keith Rabois, Logan Bartlett, Zach Weinberg, Kevin Ryan May 08, 2025

Show notes

This is the fourth episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg at Operator Partners. This episode covers tech’s relationship with DC, entitlement spending, auto tariffs, the future of American politics, and more.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. www.turpentine.co

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https://twitter.com/thiswontlast

https://twitter.com/rabois

https://twitter.com/loganbartlett

https://twitter.com/kevinryan

https://twitter.com/zachweinberg

https://twitter.com/Redpoint

https://twitter.com/turpentinemedia

Check out the Logan Bartlett Show: https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow

Timestamps:

(00:00) Preview

(01:41) Go Knicks

(02:30) Pulse check: buyer's remorse?

(10:00) Fentanyl as a core focus

(16:11) Economic statecraft

(20:24) Pendulum swing for the Democrats?

(23:28) Energy prices and drilling policies

(29:43) Predictions on recession and midterm elections

(31:53) Market predictions

(32:50) Impact of tariffs, commitments, and tax cuts

(34:35) Debate on tax revenue and economic growth

(39:25) Entitlement spending and how to fix it

(42:05) How to get to 5% growth

(50:13) Trade, tariffs, and supply chains -- are we turning into Europe?

(56:00) Rare mineral supply

(59:00) China subsidizes the US consumers (like a tax cut)

(01:05:40) Tradecraft labor needs

(01:08:12) Wrap

Trump's Inauguration, Tech's Shifting Politics, and US GDP Growth Wall Jan 18, 2025

Show notes

This is the third episode of This Won’t Last. This episode covers Silicon Valley's unprecedented attendance at Trump's inauguration, tech's evolving stance on energy and regulation, and why America's economy struggles to achieve the growth rates it saw from 1950-2000.

The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at AlleyCorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. www.turpentine.co

𝕏

⁠https://twitter.com/thiswontlast⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/rabois⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/loganbartlett⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/kevinryan⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/zachweinberg⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/Redpoint⁠

⁠https://twitter.com/turpentinemedia⁠

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:30) Keith’s bet with Nate Silver

(04:31) Why its actually easy to predict election results

(11:16) Trump’s character evolution

(15:03) US GDP growth wall

(16:31) Deportations in Trump’s presidency

(21:36) H1B debate

(23:50) Lessons for the Democrats from 2024 election

(29:14) Altman, Zuckerberg, Dara, and others donating to inauguration

(31:00) How Trump won over tech

(35:10) The energy independence agenda

(38:04) Keeping politics out of the workplace

(43:52) How quickly DEI & meritocracy discourse has changed

(46:10) Crime rates in New York

(54:37) Drug stores across the country

(55:45) Police response rates

(57:48) Keith’s anecdotes from his prosecutor days

(01:00:11) Insurance & California wildfires

(01:04:03) Market forces & regulation

Recommended Podcast:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

Inside OpenAI's First Venture Round (Khosla), AI Leaderboards, and Regulatory Chess Games Oct 05, 2024

Show notes

This is the second episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Khosla’s initial investment into OpenAI, runaway AI CapEx, long-term AI leaderboards, and regulatory implications in AI.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

Subscribe on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast

https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow

𝕏

https://x.com/thiswontlast

https://x.com/rabois

https://x.com/loganbartlett

https://x.com/kevinryan

https://x.com/zachweinberg

https://x.com/Redpoint

https://x.com/turpentinemedia

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

Links:

OpenAI and Anthropic revenue data: https://www.tanayj.com/p/openai-and-anthropic-revenue-breakdown
Anthropic CEO on future $10B model: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dario-amodei
Hardware costs in Scaling AI: https://fortune.com/2024/04/04/ai-training-costs-how-much-is-too-much-openai-gpt-anthropic-microsoft/
Comparing Quality/Speed/Price of AI models: https://artificialanalysis.ai/
CA banning election deep fakes on social media: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/17/californias-5-new-ai-laws-crack-down-on-election-deepfakes-and-actor-clones/
Life expectancy relative to spending in Healthcare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-health-expenditure

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:39) Show origins

(02:39) OpenAI funding, Khosla’s initial investment

(06:40) Talent shortage and power law engineers

(11:47) Engineer tenure at startups

(15:12) OpenAI metrics

(19:26) AI CapEx

(25:01) Zach’s Pixel vs iPhone

(25:36) OpenAI vs Perplexity and Google

(32:03) Safety concerns in AI

(40:38) Misinformation regulation

(46:38) Regulations in healthcare

(48:44) Gambling regulations

(58:49) Hidden downsides of regulations

(01:03:59) Individual responsibilities

(01:13:33) Closing

Is Founder Mode Insightful? Plus AI Valuations, Unrealized Gains Tax, and Putin's Telegram Sep 08, 2024

Show notes

This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

🎥 Subscribe on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast

https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow

𝕏

https://x.com/thiswontlast

https://x.com/rabois

https://x.com/loganbartlett

https://x.com/kevinryan

https://x.com/zachweinberg

https://x.com/Redpoint