This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

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E72: Deel is a screaming buy?, $2b Google investment into Anthropic, Can X/Twitter be the ‘everything app’ | Pre-IPO Stock Podcast – Nov 1, 2023 | Clint Sorenson, Nick Fusco, Aaron Dillon Nov 02, 2023

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00:14 | Deel is a screaming buy?
- global HR payroll and compliance provider; 15,000 active customers, $5.5b payroll payments processed
- $12.5b implied secondary market valuation, up from last round in May 2022 at $12.1b
- Deel was -53% in Mar 2023 in the secondary from May 2022 primary round but is now up 33% from its secondary lows
- Deel's revenue grew 470% from 2020 to 2021 and 417% from May 2021 to 2022
03:40 | $2b Google investment into Anthropic, White House AI executive order
- Google invested $2b in Anthropic; the deal is structured with $500m upfront and $1.5b later, Google invested $300m in Apr 2023 for a 10% stake
- White House new AI executive order aims to regulate AI development; consensus is the executive order is well done, not regulatory capture
09:58 | Can X/Twitter be the ‘everything app’
- Musk has owned X/Twitter for 1 year; purchased for $44b now at $19b, a 57% decrease
- X aims to be the ‘everything app’ similar to WeChat in Mainland China
- ‘Everything app’ could mean the following on X; tweets, YouTube videos, checking accounts, Venmo, payments to merchants, sports betting, news article micro-payments, etc

E71: Plaid IPO?, NY State sues Gemini, Amazon + humanoid robots, AI and your kids/business | Pre-IPO Stock Podcast – Oct 23, 2023 | Clint Sorenson, Nick Fusco, Aaron Dillon Oct 23, 2023

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00:18 | Plaid IPO?
- Plaid hired former Expedia exec, Eric Hart, as their CFO, sparking IPO rumors
- Plaid laid off 20% of their staff in 2022, IPO prep?
- Visa's attempt to acquire Plaid for $5b was killed by regulators re: antitrust
- Plaid at $15.4b implied secondary market valuation, +15% from Apr 2021 round at $13.4b valuation
- “High quality” IPOs are coming … larger valuations, broader current investor base … Plaid, Databricks, Stripe
06:53 | NY State sues Gemini
- Gemini’s Earn product allocated money to DCG’s Genesis which subsequently allocated to Three Arrows Capital and Alameda Research, both of which went bankrupt, leaving a $1.1b deficit
- FTX’s Anthropic investment could fill the $1.1b deficit
- “Picks and shovels” crypto companies are of particular interest; e.g. Kraken, Fireblocks, ConsenSys
- Secondary market buyers have pulled back, both buyers and sellers
13:12 | Amazon + humanoid robots
- Amazon testing Agility Robotics’ Digit humanoid robot in warehouses
- Robotics and AI would play a significant part in lives over the next 5 to 10 years, impacting business and geopolitics
- Robotics will have a positive impact on economic growth, population decline will require robotics to enhance productivity
- Robotics have been around for a while but humanoid robots are making the opportunity very tangible and real for many
- Robotics will drive onshoring manufacturing due to lowered costs of production
21:13 | AI and your kids/business
- I turned by 5 year old, Duke, loose on ChatGPT audio option this past weekend
- Duke has a full on conversation with “Mr. George”, the name he gave ChatGPT
- ChatGPT knew Duke was 5 years old and was prompting Duke with questions to further engage and education him
- Clint uses ChatGPT to write investment research and create initial drafts of chapters for a book he is writing
- AI, like ChatGPT, will make to possibility of “1-person-companies” a reality
- A $1.0b valuation 1-person-company is close!

E70: $10b valuation for Anduril, OpenAI next “App Store”, Loom acquired for $975m, Flexport lays of 20% staff | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Oct 13, 2023 Oct 13, 2023

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00:10 | $10b valuation for Anduril
- Raising $400m to $500m at a $10b valuation, 17.6% increase from last round
- Use of funds = acquisitions, research/development
- Recently won $1.0b contract from US Special Ops Command
01:07 | OpenAI next “Apple App Store”
- releasing developer tools on Nov 6 conference
- updates will reduce costs by 20x and include vision/image capabilities
- current tender offer at $90b, 210% above its Apr 2023 round just 7 months ago
02:51 | Loom acquired for $975m
- Atlassian is acquiring for -36% vs last round ($1.53b)
- Loom provides an asynchronous video solution
- Loom has 25m customers, 5m monthly video conversations; Ford, Tesla, Amazon are customers
03:46 | Flexport lays of 20% of staff
- 660 of 3300 employees impacted
- 70% drop in 1H 2023 revenue
- Former CEO Dave Clark removed five weeks ago
04:14 | Big capital raises
- Electric Hydrogen | $380m Series C, $1.0b valuation
- Headway | $125m Series C, $1.0b valuation
- Bizongo | $50m Series E, $980m valuation
- SuperOrdinary | $58m Series B, $800m valuation
- Pulumi | $41m Series C, $391m valuation
04:57 | Pre-IPO 5.75% for week
- Week winners: Anthropic +100.1% (not a typo), Rippling +26.2%, Hugging Face +22.9%, OpenAI +14.7%, Brex +8.3%
- Week losers: Epic Games -5.5%, Airtable -4.5%, ByteDance -3.7%, Cohere -3.0%, Deel -2.2%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $203b, SpaceX $157b, OpenAI $77b, Stripe $53b, Databricks $45b

E69: ByteDance nearing Meta revenue?!, Wegovy/Ozempic’s impact on society, FTX creditors made whole via Anthropic | Pre-IPO Stock Podcast – Oct 10, 2023 | Clint Sorenson, Nick Fusco, Aaron Dillon Oct 11, 2023

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00:26 | ByteDance nearing Meta revenue?!
- ByteDance nearly reaching Meta-level in quarterly revenue; Meta $28.6b vs ByteDance $24.5b
- Cash flow +$6.8b in Q1, profit of $2.7b, cash reserves at $30.4b
- ByteDance has current secondary market valuation of $211b, Meta has a $820b market cap
- Mutual funds (e.g. Fidelity) are valuing ByteDance much higher vs other players in the private markets
- ByteDance is undervalued due to US regulatory concerns?
- Tiktok US is not a big part of ByteDance revenue but is a focus for future growth
08:50 | Wegovy/Ozempic’s impact on society
- Wegovy, Ozempic help people stop eating ... appears reduces desire for other impulses; smoking, alcohol, etc
- Walmart earnings call highlighted people taking drugs bought less food
- Highlight the impact emerging pharma and biotech companies can have on society, potential for major cultural shifts
- CEOs are discussing weight loss drugs on earnings calls and their impact on financials
- Early-stage life sciences companies get acquired by larger pharmaceutical companies due to regulatory overhang
16:42 | FTX creditors made whole via Anthropic
- $8.9b total missing in FTX bankruptcy owed to creditors, $7.3b recovered to date
- FTX invested $500m into Anthropic at a $4.0b valuation, FTX led the Series B
- FTX Anthropic stake worth $3.0b to $4.5b after Anthropic announces its recent round at a $20b to $30b valuation
- FTX Anthropic investment/gain could make all FTX creditors whole
- Several pre-IPO companies have corporate venture divisions their investments could mean a huge positive impact to corporate valuations … Naspers is a great example … 46% ownership of Tencent, up 9,200% in last 20 years with almost the entire net asset value of the company coming from its Tencent investment

E68: +300% for Anthropic since May, $24b Q1 revenue for ByteDance, Revolut locks a win with SoftBank, JasperAI down 20%, Chainalysis lays off 15% | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Oct 6, 2023 Oct 06, 2023

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00:08 | JasperAI down 20%
- Jasper AI, previously a leading player in generative AI, has decreased its internal valuation to $1.2b from $1.5b
- 2023 ARR down 30%
- CEO and co-founder Dave Rogenmoser stepped down, replaced by former Dropbox president Timothy Young
01:29 | +300% for Anthropic since May
- Anthropic to raise additional $2b at $20b to $30b valuation, up 300% from May ’23 round
- 200x valuation multiple!!!
- Anthropic's partnership with Amazon is expected to materially drive incremental revenue
02:53 | Chainalysis lays off 15%
- Second downsizing this year; 5% lay off in Feb 2023
- Recent partnerships with Four Inc. and Deloitte
- Current secondary market valuation of $4.8b, -45% from April 2022 $8.6b primary round
03:46 | $24b Q1 revenue for ByteDance
- Nearly reaching Meta-level in quarterly revenue, $28.6b vs $24.5b
- Cash flow +$6.8b in Q1, profit of $2.7b, cash reserves at $30.4b
- Current secondary market valuation of $211b
05:01 | Revolut locks a win with SoftBank
- Revolut has reached an agreement with primary investor SoftBank to simplify its ownership structure
- The Bank of England required Revolut to consolidate its six share classes for the license
- Current secondary market valuation $16.2b, -51% from July 2021 $33b valuation
06:11 | Big capital raises
- Xiaohongshu (www.xiaohongshu.com) | Series F, $14.0b valuation
- CoreWeave (www.coreweave.com) | Series B, $7.0b valuation
- Sierra Space (www.sierraspace.com) | $290m Series B, $5.3b valuation
- Nord Security (www.nordsecurity.com) | $100m Series B, $3.0b valuation
- Harbinger Health (www.harbinger-health.com) | $140m Series B, $570m valuation
07:20 | Pre-IPO 3.08% for week
- Week winners: OpenAI +83.9% (not a typo, starting to reflect new primary round), Airtable +12.0%, Cohere +8.7%, Brex 5.2%, Neuralink +3.1%
- Week losers: Anthropic -10.9%, Stripe -3.2%, Consensys -2.6%, Hugging Face -2.3%, Discord -2.1%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $211b, SpaceX $152b, OpenAI $67b, Stripe $52b, Databricks $45b lead in current valuation

E67: How to play the AI investment opportunity, Zuckerberg will change the world with augmented reality, Recent IPOs a success | Pre-IPO Stock Podcast – Oct 2, 2023 | Clint Sorenson, Nick Fusco, Aaron Dillon Oct 03, 2023

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00:29 | Zuckerberg will change the world with augmented reality
- Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, was interviewed by podcaster Lex Fridman using Meta-driven photorealistic avatars in the metaverse
- Fridman, an MIT professor, was deeply moved by the experience predicting photorealistic avatars could “change the world”
- Zuckerberg highlighted that very soon Meta will have augmented reality solutions to hologram people into real-world settings for business or personal use
- Photorealistic avatars have potential to disrupt the airline, hotel, and office real estate sectors
10:58 | Recent IPOs were a success
- Instacart, Klaviyo, and Arm all went IPO in the last 2-3 weeks.
…Arm: IPOed at $51/share, now at $53.92 (+5.7%), market cap $55b
…Instacart: IPOed at $30/share, now at $29.70 (-1%), market cap $8.2b
…Klaviyo: IPOed at $30/share, now at $35 (+17%), market cap $8.7b
- IPOs were a success as IPO price held and investors now have liquidity
- Stripe, Databricks, Reddit, others may look to IPO now
- Pre-IPO stocks need to give investors and employees liquidity options
22:19 | How to play the AI investment opportunity
- OpenAI announced a valuation of $90b, up from a previous $29b
- Anthropic announced Amazon is taking a minority stake at an undisclosed valuation (north $10b?)
- AWS will be the cloud and chip provider for Anthropic and will also sell Anthropic AI through AWS, similar to OpenAI's partnership with Microsoft.
- Companies are getting valuations based on a 30x revenue multiple on projected “forward revenue”
- OpenAI previously announced $1b of revenue for the year, justifying its $29 billion valuation … predictions for next year's of “a few billion” revenue could justify the $90b valuation
- Winners could be those AI companies that partner with major cloud providers: Cohere with Oracle, Anthropic with Amazon, OpenAI with Microsoft, and Google's own AI for Google Cloud.
- Picks and shovels play are also interesting; Databricks, Hugging Face, Cerebras, Scale AI

E66: OpenAI up 200% at $90b, $4b raise for Anthropic, Jony Ive’s AI hardware, Microsoft moves from OpenAI (a bit), Faire takes Shopify $s, 16% layoff at Epic Games | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Sep 29, 2023 Sep 29, 2023

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00:09 | OpenAI up 200% at $90b
- In discussions for a share sale at $80b to $90b valuation
- Revenue project at $1b in 2023, multi-billion in 2024
- Employees will sell shares in round, CEO Altman signaled no desire to IPO or be acquired
01:13 | Jony Ive’s AI hardware with OpenAI’s Sam Altman
- Jony Ive, renowned iPhone designer, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are reportedly exploring the development of a new AI hardware device
- SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son involved
- Altman is investor Humane, a company focusing on developing innovative AI-incorporated wearable devices
02:02 | Microsoft moves from OpenAI (a bit)
- Microsoft is developing cost-effective, “distilled” AI models as a contingency against rising costs of running advanced AI (i.e. OpenAI)
- Could provide Microsoft with more negotiating leverage with OpenAI
03:08 | $4b raise for Anthropic from Amazon
- Amazon invests $4 billion in Anthropic, minority take, over $10b+ valuation?
- Also strategic partnership btwn Amazon/Anthropic to allow AI models accessible to AWS customers
- AWS becomes Anthropic’s primary cloud provider, use Amazon chips
04:18 | Faire takes Shopify $s
- Shopify invests in wholesale e-commerce site Faire, Faire valuation not disclosed
- Shopify similarly invested $100m investment in Klaviyo in 2022
- Faire last raised $816m in May 2022 at a $12.6b valuation
05:10 | 16% layoff at Epic Games
- 830 employees impacted
- Divesting Bandcamp (music platform) and spinning off SuperAwesome (tools fro brands to target kids)
- Moves are an attempt to move the company back to profitability
06:13 | Big capital raises
- Cato Networks (www.catonetworks.com) | $238m Series F, $3.0b valuation
- Mapbox (www.mapbox.com) | $280m Series E, $1.8b valuation
- bolttech (www.bolttech.io) | $246m Series B, $1.6b valuation
- JOKR (www.jokr.com) | $50m Series D, $800m valuation
- ReCode Therapeutics (www.recodetx.com) | $260m Series B, $700m valuation
07:22 | Pre-IPO 0.65% for week
- Week winners: Anthropic +33.7%, OpenAI 15.2%, Brex +4.6%, Stripe +2.8%, Plaid +1.2%
- Week losers: Discord -11.4%, Klarna -5.0%, Airtable -4.4%, Neuralink -3.3%, SpaceX -2.5%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $211b, SpaceX $152b, Stripe $53b, Databricks $45b, OpenAI $37b lead in current valuation

E65: Next IPOs? Stripe, Klarna, eToro, Databricks; Neuralink puts computers in human brains; TikTok Shop ramps up US presence; Flexport founder Ryan Peterson back as CEO | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Sep 22, 2023 Sep 22, 2023

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00:10 | Next IPOs? Stripe, Klarna, eToro, Databricks
- Stable IPO valuations are favorable for pre-IPO companies, market is ready for more IPOs
- Arm, Instacart, Klaviyo IPOs bring transparency to private primary and secondary market valuations/multiples
- Probable next IPOs with go logic = Stripe, Klarna, eToro, Databricks, Starlink spun out of SpaceX
04:00 | Neuralink puts computers in brains
- First brain-computer interface (BCI) human trail approved by FDA
- Goal is to allow participants to control a computer cursor or keyboard using their thoughts alone
- $2.6b current valuation in the private secondary market
05:24 | TikTok Shop ramps up US presence
- TikTok Shop allows users to buy directly within TikTok social media app
- Currently $6m per month in gross sales, $500m total loss as of Aug 2023
- TikTok, a ByteDance company … ByteDance is currently the largest pre-IPO stock, valued at $210 billion
06:21 | Flexport founder Ryan Peterson back as CEO
- Revenue dropped nearly 70% to around $700 million in the first half of this year
- Petersen aims to revitalize Flexport by cutting waste and addressing customer quality issues
- $3.1b secondary market valuation, down 62% from its last primary round
07:26 | Big capital raises
- Databricks (www.databricks.com) | $500m Series I, $43.5b valuation
- EquipmentShare (www.equipmentshare.com) | $440m Series E, $3.6b valuation
- Shield AI (www.shield.ai) | $150m Series F, $2.5b valuation
- Generate Biomedicines (www.generatebiomedicines.com) | $273m Series C, $2.0b valuation
- VideoAmp (www.videoamp.com) | $150m Series G, $1.6b valuation
09:23 | Pre-IPO -1.15% for week
IPO Watch as of close Sep 22, 2023:
...Arm = $52.7b market cap, +0.6% from $51/share IPO price
...Instacart = $8.3b market cap, flat from $30/share IPO price
...Klaviyo = $8.4b market cap, +11.3% from $30/share IPO price
* Note: see disclosure below, stated market caps not fully diluted market caps
Week winners: Databricks +4.72%, Brex +3.80%, Deel +3.06%, Stripe +2.10%, SpaceX +1.70%
Week losers: Flexport -10.54%, Chime -8.39%, Neuralink -7.22%, ConsenSys -7.03%, -4.97% Reddit
Top valuations: ByteDance $210b, SpaceX $156b, Stripe $52b, Databricks $35b, OpenAI $32b lead in current valuation

E64: Arm up 25% on IPO, Databricks raises at $43b, Starlink revenue up 533%, Dimon tells founders to “grow up”, | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Sep 15, 2023 Sep 15, 2023

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Investing in pre-IPO stocks = www.agdillon.com
00:10 | Arm up 25% on IPO
- Arm is 90% owned by Softbank
- IPOed at $54.5b, closed at $65b
- Last round at $64b in Aug 2023
- Apple, Google, Nvidia purchased $735m of shares
01:37 | Dimon tells founders to “grow up”
- Dimon says 2020/2021 valuations were overpriced
- “…if you can go public, you want to go public, you need to go public, don’t wait too long.”
02:15 | Databricks raises at $43b
- $500m led by TRowe, Nvidia participated
- +13% from last round in Aug 2021, +39% from Oct 2022 internal valuation
- Company is eying the IPO market
03:17 | Starlink revenue up 533%
- $1.4b in 2022 revenue, up from $222m in 2021
- On track for 2.5m subscribers by end of 2023, averaging 127,000 new subscribers per month
- 37% of world’s population (3 billion people) has zero access to the internet
04:23 | Big capital raises
- Ola Electric (www.olaelectric.com) | $140m Series E, $5.4b valuation
- Getir (www.getir.com) | $500m Series G, $2.5b valuation
- Ascend Elements (www.ascendelements.com) | $460m Series D, $1.4b valuation
- Zopa (www.zopa.com) | $96m Series J, $1.1b valuation
- Imbue (www.imbue.com) | $200m Series B, $1.0b valuation
05:51 | Pre-IPO +0.58% for week
- IPO Watch:
...Arm (Sep 14) = $54.5b IPO valuation << $65.2b first day public close, last round $64b in Aug 2023
...Instacart (Sep 19) = $9.3b IPO valuation << $12.4b 2ndary valuation, last round $39b Mar 2021
...Klaviyo (Sep 20) = $8.4b IPO valuation << $4.3b 2ndary valuation, last round $9.5b Jul 2022
- Week winners: Chime +15.0%, Flexport +3.5%, Brex +3.1%, Ramp +2.1%, Rippling +2.0%
- Week losers: Airtable -6.2%, Databricks -5.1%, Klarna -3.3%, Anduril -2.2%, Discord -1.2%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $210b, SpaceX $153b, Stripe $51b, Databricks $33b, OpenAI $32b

E63: Arm, Instacart, Klaviyo IPOs all valued; VCs/LPs selling in the private market secondary; Employees selling in private market secondary acceptable/smart? | Pre-IPO Stock Podcast – Sep 11, 2023 | Clint Sorenson, Nick Fusco, Aaron Dillon Sep 12, 2023

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00:32 | Arm, Instacart, Klaviyo IPOs all valued
- Arm = $55b vs $64b last round in Aug 2023, 10x oversubscribed
- Instacart = $9b vs $39b last round in Mar 2021 and $12b last internal valuation in Mar 2023
- Klaviyo $6.8b vs last round at $9.5b, updated to $8.6b Tue morning
- Bankers are priming these companies for a big pop in the public markets
08:53 | VCs/LPs selling in the private market secondary
- VCs and LPs are selling positions in the private secondary market
- Notable is Tiger selling Cohere for a gain
- VCs are attempting to lock in a gain to distribute capital or get liquidity to make other investments
- LPs have a need to rebalance across asset classes and realize gains
21:44 | Employees selling in private market secondary acceptable/smart?
- CoreWeave employees are selling $500m of stock and hired Morgan Stanley as banker
- This is a smart approach for employees to table some money off the table and lock in gains
- Historically, investors viewed employee/founder selling as taboo … as companies stay private longer liquidity points need to be established

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