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Anthropic's S-1 landed on the good side of expectations, and we read the headline $80 billion net loss as mostly an accounting item rather than a cash problem. Of that $80 billion, roughly $72 billion is a non-cash accounting treatment, so the underlying loss for the first half of the year was about $8 billion, set against roughly $130 billion of cash and short-term investments. The customer mix has improved materially, and it now serves ballpark 10,000+ customers with $100,000+ in trailing 12 month revenue. Our net read on the filing is very positive.
Anthropic is reportedly targeting a $2 trillion IPO, and while we think that level is achievable, our preference would be a price nearer $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion that leaves room for the stock to run. The secondary market is trading Anthropic at about $1.55 trillion today. If Anthropic prices at $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, we would expect it to settle around $1.7 trillion after the initial post-IPO swings, and we believe pricing for investor returns could push the stock above $2 trillion on its own.
On the question of who finishes 2027 with more revenue, our view is SpaceX. Musk has said he expects SpaceX to reach $100 billion of annualized revenue in December, and on that math we see SpaceX as an AI data center business rather than a space company. Anthropic needs to keep revenue growth going, and we think it will likely need to become more of a compute company to deliver strong model results.
Fireworks AI is reportedly looking to raise at $30 billion to $40 billion, up from a $17.5 billion round in July, and in our opinion the AI inference category deserves a close look. Fireworks had about $1 billion in annualized revenue at the time of the July round, and we expect the new round to land in the $35 billion to $40 billion range. Our preference is to keep Fireworks AI, Baseten and Together AI on the watch list as a group.
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