The Walker Webcast

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Dr. Peter Linneman, Leading Economist & Former Wharton Professor Jul 26, 2022

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Willy welcomes Peter Linneman. He is the principal of Linneman Associates, KL, Realty, and American Land Fund. Having been a member of the Wharton School of Business’s faculty at the University of Pennsylvania for 32 years, he is the Albert Sussman Emeritus Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Business Public Policy and is the co-founding editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review, publishing 80 articles. He is cited as one of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate by Realtor Magazine and one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York Real estate by the New York Observer. He is a highly sought-after speaker and author, with his quarterly research, The Linneman Letter, the most respected publication in real estate for the past 11 years. The Walker Webcast begins with Peter emphasizing inflation is transitory with supply lagging demand due to 23% of the workforce collecting unemployment insurance. Also, industrial output is only 3% in Q1. Expanding output would be profitable, but most companies are not following through. Oil prices would normalize when production increases. The US remains the largest producer of oil in the world, and the situation of $260 a barrel is unlikely because supply is predicted to adjust. Besides, the US exports weapons and food, which Southeast Asian countries will highly favor due to tensions with China. Peter advises giving the supply 3-4 years of adjustment. The Federal Reserve System would not have control over long-term interest rates as $5 trillion in cash is set aside. He describes how debt should not be the main concern but “getting your money’s worth” and continues to say how federal debt is largely misunderstood. The higher the debt is, the bigger the political problems are because debt is owed by US citizens individually, not the state. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — The Best Hour in CRE with Peter Linneman, Leading Economist, Former Wharton Professor. ▶️ Key Points In The Webcast: 00:35 Willy welcomes Peter Linneman 03:21 Inflation is transitory, and supply lags demand 08:02 Decrease in oil prices due to supply adjustment 10:33 The US posed to export more weapons, oil, and food 14:21 Why the Fed has no control over long-term interest rates 20:19 Peter’s opinion on national debt concerns 26:13 Significant growth exists despite COVID-19 32:06 Stress tests and fear holding banks back from lending 34:33 Lowering debt to cope with interest 38:14 The strength of the US dollar 41:20 Returning to office and productivity vs. profit 45:29 Generation gap and what inflation means in real estate 49:45 The trend of moving to coastal gateway cities 52:57 The economic state under Joe Biden

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Bill Haslam, Former Governor of Tennessee Jul 10, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Willy welcomes Bill Haslam. He is the former two-term mayor of Knoxville, Tennessee and former two-term governor of Tennessee, reelected in 2014 with the largest victory margin of any gubernatorial election in Tennessee history. During his tenure, Tennessee became the fastest improving state in the country in K-12 education and the first state to provide free community college or technical school for all of its citizens. The state also added 475,000 net new jobs during his term. Haslam serves on the boards of Teach for America and Young Life and is a visiting professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. He is the author of Faithful Presence: The Promise and Peril of Faith in the Public Square. Bill is a graduate of Emory University. He and his wife of 40 years, Crissy, have three children and ten grandchildren.

The podcast begins with Bill sharing how he changed his mind about becoming a teacher and going to the seminary. His father advised him to work in the family company, Pilot Corporation, to hone his communication and business skills, which he found to be a more “interesting and challenging environment”. He is optimistic about the trajectory of the business despite pointing out America’s supply-and-demand issue. In the early days of internet retailing, he moved on to be the CEO of Saks Fifth Avenue, seeing it as a fresh and different challenge. The Friday Five, a peer support group he created with a lawyer, banker, salesman, and dentist, held weekly meetings and encouraged him to run for the Knoxville mayoral position. Bill explains how crucial it is to be surrounded by people who know you well before making life-changing decisions as they give the best advice. He continues to explain how Americans have forgotten the importance of governing and institutions to a public democracy due to extreme divisiveness. He urges everyone to support officials with a history of problem-solving. As a mayor, he emphasizes the significance of vulnerability that although it is uncomfortable, it allows him to examine himself in new ways.

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Taylor Heinike, Washington Commanders' Quarterback Jul 05, 2022

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In this episode, Willy welcomes Taylor Heinicke. He is the quarterback of the Washington Commanders of the National Football League. Previously playing college football at Old Dominion University (ODU), he was signed by the Minnesota Vikings as an undrafted free agent after the 2015 NFL Draft. He has also been a member of the New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, and the St Louis Battle Hawks of the XFL. The Walker Webcast begins with Taylor reminiscing about his early start at ODU, receiving the offer during his senior year, and committing to it immediately. He attributes his confidence and tenacity to his parents. Starting out disliking football, he gave it a chance and fell in love with the sport. He explains that back then, people associated football with South Georgia, and as someone from the North and of smaller stature, it became a chip on his shoulder and proved his talent and skills. He describes playing in high school and college as not having much difference, but only when moving up levels are the players much stronger and smarter. It pushes him “to be good all the time, not just some of the time”. He retells his comeback as a “bizarre game” but “was a lot of fun” as he threw for 730 yards, five touchdowns, ran for another 60, and another touchdown. His collegiate injuries included a concussion and an AC joint separation, but he never missed any games in his career. In his mind, he believed he had to “grind through it”. He mentions coach Scott Turner of Minnesota as someone who showed interest in him early on, keeping him on the team. Taylor retells meeting Tom Brady during his stint with the Patriots. “He’s already in there with a coffee in his hand,” Taylor says, “I got to kind of pick his brain and be around him… which was a really cool experience.” Debuting in the NFL on Christmas Day was a surprise for Taylor as he was thrown into the team after T.J. Yates’ injury. He describes his feelings while playing on national television as an “Oh my God moment” but also blacking out and then getting into a state of focus. Despite a concussion, he moved to the Carolina Panthers, seeing it as “a second start,” where he learned from his previous mistakes and improved on them. COVID-19 halted most of Taylor’s activities, but he still continued to train in hopes of receiving a call. In terms of signing contracts, when presented with one from the Redskins, Taylor would ensure terms were guaranteed, and his hard work would not go to waste. However, he would not base his excellent performance on bonuses and incentives alone.

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Adi Ignatius, Editor in Chief of Harvard Business Review Jun 27, 2022

Show notes

In this Walker Webcast, Willy welcomes Adi Ignatius. As the Editor in Chief of the Harvard Business Review Group and the publisher of HBR Press, he oversees the editorial activities of HBR, HBR.org, and its book-publishing unit. Before getting onboard HBR in 2009, he was the #2 editor at TIME. Two books he edited, President Obama: The Path to the White House and Prisoner of the State: The Secret Diaries of Premier Zhao Ziyang, became New York Times’ Bestsellers. Living and working overseas, he previously worked as an editor of TIME’s Asian edition and Beijing Bureau Chief and Moscow Bureau Chief for the Wall Street Journal. With HBR turning a century old in 2022, the publication aims to be credible and valuable, publishing the best ideas and research. From gathering ideas in their inbox to being more proactive, Adi explains that the editors strive to write about relevant topics while delivering long-form content. Their digital domain has garnered more attention as the physical copies took a setback. With their active Instagram presence, Adi says they want to “give people a nugget that has value then provide a link to go deeper,” providing an option to consume short pieces or in-depth research. He attributes their revenue success to their dedicated paying subscribers.

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Jared Polis, Governor of Colorado Jun 18, 2022

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In this episode, Willy welcomes Governor Jared Polis. Before serving as the 43rd governor of Colorado since 2009, his political experience spans from being a Colorado State Board of Education member to a United States representative from Colorado’s 2nd congressional district. He is an entrepreneur at heart, founding ProFlowers in 1998 and TechStars in 2006. As an openly gay man, he advocates for LGBTQ+ and racial equality in Colorado. He has committed to ensuring all Coloradans have the opportunity to pursue their dreams by opening schools for at-risk students and new students and starting nonprofits for war veterans. The podcast begins with Governor Polis emphasizing “Colorado for All” and how people of all races and genders are the foundation of making the state“an amazing place.” His mother, Susan Polis Schutz, wrote Depression and Back, an integral influence on Governor Polis’ mental health policies. “We inherited an overly complicated and inefficient behavioral system…First days in the office, [I said] let’s fix this.” Reshaping the bureaucracy was a challenge, yet he believes that “getting things done at state-level is possible,” as he pushed for accountability and transparency. He proudly describes Colorado’s implementation of the red flag law, which allows families to temporarily confiscate guns from loved ones experiencing a mental health crisis. He supports universal background checks but points out a loophole: “You can drive an hour and a half to an open-air gun show in Wyoming and purchase a weapon without a background check.” As an entrepreneur, he enjoys how the private sector is always innovating but also finds the public sector fulfilling as it gives him a chance to improve people’s quality of life. With the previous governor, John Hickenlooper’s entrepreneurial background, Colorado has become a startup-friendly state, eliminating the costs of opening a business. Colorado's ranching and farming communities are fundamental to its economic growth, so Governor Polis prioritizes rural-urban unity. He continues to empower the agricultural technology sector with new practices and equipment as the state also depends on outdoor recreation. Governor Polis opposes buy-and-dry efforts and pushes for water conservation. In terms of natural disasters, Colorado has improved its rapid response and additional mitigation after experiencing three large wildfires in 2020. Governor Polis wants to create a better outdoor lifestyle experience, initiating the revitalization of main streets post-pandemic. Colorado aims to be 100% renewable energy by 2040. As COVID-19 infection numbers are dwindling, Governor Polis has stayed in the middle ground regarding wearing masks and lockdowns, giving people the freedom of choice. He focuses on reducing health care and pharma costs with a reinsurance program and talks with the FDA. With the positive effects of the cannabis industry, the Safe Banking Act aims to allow financial services even with businesses outside of state laws. Forbes ranked Colorado Springs and Boulder in the top five of the 100 Best Cities in America, increasing the volume of people moving into the state and driving housing affordability concerns. Governor Polis’ solution is to build more infrastructure to avoid disrupting the quality of life. His superb intellect fuels his desire to surround himself and delegate creative people to his side. He expresses no interest in running for national office due to his fiery passion for protecting Colorado’s urban and rural landscape for the newer generations to come.

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John Hope Bryant, Entrepreneur, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Operation HOPE Jun 13, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Willy welcomes John Hope Bryant. He is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Operation Hope, a nonprofit aiming to empower the youth and adults with financial literacy and economic education. He is the CEO of Bryant Group Ventures and The Promise Homes Company, the largest for-profit minority-owned single-family rental home operator in the United States. He retells his humble beginnings as an African-American entrepreneur in his bestselling books on economics and leadership, such as How the Poor Can Save Capitalism and Up from Nothing. Named the 2016 Innovator of the Year by American Banker magazine, he is currently the first entrepreneur scholar in residence at Clark Atlanta University. The podcast begins with John emphasizing the importance of energy and relationships in every aspect of our lives. He narrates his childhood of finding out his genius IQ score but never internalizing it as he continued to hustle his way to success. He attributes his self-esteem to his mom’s unwavering expression of love as he believes that achievements are not “so much about being smart but are about being resilient.” He shares a story about Mike Maples, Jr. to drive home the point of having a winning mentality. “You don’t create a business to sell to Disney, but to buy Disney,” Mike Maples, Sr. said. John also highlights the significance of creating an environment of positive role models for children. “Brilliance is transferable everywhere,” he says. After a period of working in the entertainment business, John proceeded to do banking and finance. He believes capitalism can be a force for transformational change. With the privilege of education and setting up a candy shop, John realized his entrepreneurial dream and desire to give back to his community. “The color should not be red, blue, black, or white – but how do we all get some green… My calling is to unleash the untapped potential of the bottom of the pyramid.” He points out that the solution to poverty isn’t to distribute wealth but to teach others how to create it. He calls for giving children the incentive to study by teaching business creation and computing and providing internships. In the Great Resignation, more small businesses emerged since 2004, and 38% were owned by Black women. John has mastered the art of developing long-standing relationships with his deep heart for people. “You’ve got to live with something larger and more important than yourself.” He has also tapped into his intuition in his decision-making process as he thinks it’s “God speaking to you through you.” He practices treating everyone equally and being open to different perspectives – be it Republican, Democratic, poverty, wealth, local, or global. Upon talking to his pastor, the notable piece of advice he received was, “Take your business skills… and build wealth and opportunity in our neighborhoods.” Greed predisposes most people to financial failure, and he urges companies to offer financial coaching to their employees. On his journey to becoming an inspirational leader, he credits it to his ability to manage failure. He calls out to the United States to focus on building rather than thinking of what divides us. Love should be prioritized above all else as it is “the only self-renewing energy on the planet.”

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Thomas Daniels, Partner at Spencer Stuart Jun 06, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Willy welcomes Thomas Daniels. Previously a managing director and senior banker for investment banking recruiting at JPMorgan, Thomas is motivated to “discover and develop talent for a better future.” As a senior director and partner at Spencer Stuart, he has served on the firm’s audit and risk and cybersecurity committees and worked on executive search, succession planning, executive assessment, and board assignments for large multinationals, midcap private equity, and asset management firms. He is a speaker and panelist and has contributed to several articles, such as “Recruiting the Next Generation of Financial Experts to Boards” and “Lessons and Advice for Today’s CFO”. The podcast begins with Thomas explaining how the Great Resignation has impacted Spencer Stuart. Although negative on the surface, he believes there is “more liquidity than ever in human capital markets,” as Gen Z and millennial employees are upskilling and more concerned with work-life balance. To retain top talent, enlightened companies are proactive in getting people engaged and prioritizing a culture of purpose, mentorship, and recognition. Despite the surge of remote meetings, more people are moving across states for greener career pastures. Spencer Stuart experienced a 19% surge of board meetings in 2021, which Thomas connects to unprecedented issues caused by the pandemic. The hybrid model has expanded the firm’s pool of potential directors. As 70% of CEOs in the S&P 500 had no prior C-level experience, the criteria for effective CEOs have shifted from an extensive background experience to self-awareness and thinking agility. Thomas enumerates the firm’s methods for spotting the outstanding ones: deep dive assessments, off-channel references, and executive intelligence interviews.

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Michael Bennet, Colorado Senator May 21, 2022

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In this episode, Willy welcomes Michael Bennet. Holding public office as the U.S. Senator for Colorado since 2009, Michael is driven by “an obligation to create more opportunity for the next generation.” He has built a strong reputation as a source of pragmatic and independent thinking, uniting Democrats and Republicans in tackling the country’s toughest issues, such as early childhood education, climate change, healthcare, and national security. His unfailing heart for service began even before his senatorial stint, helping to restructure failed businesses and creating the world’s largest movie theater chain, AMC. Starting off, Willy asks Michael about the reasons behind his career choice as a politician. Michael expresses gratitude to have contributed to Denver Public Schools as a superintendent, describing his past work experiences have widened his perspective on business and service. Being born in New Delhi, he disbelieves it to be a hurdle in his 2019 presidential campaign. He fondly talks about his father, Douglas J. Bennet, and his term as an editor for Yale Law Review, describing it as “the most luxurious three years of his life.” Michael then retells his experience working with Dick Celeste and how he reached the conclusion, “I wasn’t put on this earth to practice law. I just didn’t enjoy it.” He continues his journey by buying up Regal Cinemas, creating the largest motion picture exhibitor in the world. Michael reminisces on the day he was sworn in as senator, describing how former Colorado governor Ben Ritter made the historical appointment possible. He characterizes Colorado as “a crucible of American politics” as he relentlessly strives to protect the honor of Ritter’s decision. Michael remains firm on his stance on exerting more efforts on climate change and how the West is suffering from a water shortage. “One of my great frustrations is that we’ve done a terrible job,” he says. Another pressing issue is the negative effects of inflation on the current U.S. economy as the average American citizen works tirelessly yet is still unable to afford housing, healthcare, and education. He urges the market to consider onshore manufacturing to maintain ethically-run supply chains. As one of the powerful forces behind the Build Back Better Act, Michael laments that “it’s going to be very hard to get it over to the finish line.” He also provides his two cents on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, stating it as solid proof that democracy will always win over totalitarianism. He believes underestimating the Ukrainian people was a huge mistake on Putin’s part and that balance in leadership is needed to figure out the best strategy for overcoming nationwide attacks. As a qualified lawyer, Michael gives his perspective on the Roe v. Wade leak and the importance of voting for people who believe in women’s rights and are pro-choice. Even as a gun owner himself, Michael supports the move for universal background checks in connection to Colorado’s dark history with gun violence. Despite this, he voted against Dianne Feinstein’s legislation as he believed it was “an obsolete approach.” For the 2024 presidential elections, Michael predicts Joe Biden and Donald Trump running once again. Willy and Michael end the episode with Michael looking back on his viral speech on the Senate floor in 2013, speaking against Ted Cruz’s call for a government shutdown.

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Lotfi Karoui, Chief Credit Strategist and head of the Credit Research Group at Goldman Sachs May 14, 2022

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In this episode, Willy welcomes Lotfi Karoui. Lotfi joined Goldman Sachs in 2007 and was promoted to managing director in 2015. Currently, he is the Chief Credit Strategist and head of the Credit Research Group at Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banking, securities, and management firms. His research covers a wide span of topics, including income markets, interest rate models, and macro-finance. His work is published in various academic journals, including the Journal of Financial Economics, Management Science, the Journal of Derivatives, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. To start, Willy asks Lotfi about Paul Tudor Jones’ opinion in a recent CNBC interview, in which he stated, “You don’t want to be in bonds or stocks right now. I can’t think of a worse macro-environment...” Lotfi points out the paradigm shift of the newfound ability for investors to park their cash, decreasing the urgency of putting money in bonds and stocks. The built-up risk premium also becomes a factor, citing widened corporate bond spreads as an example. Lotfi continues to explain that “anything that has a little bit of duration risk has probably its worst start ever,” encompassing investment-grade and treasury bonds. The terminal value of the fed funds rate is set to peak at 3%, which coincides with Goldman Sachs view of the ideal target to dip one’s toes into bonds. Lotfi noticed a significant trend in the past five economic declines: The slope of the yield curve has done a fantastic job at predicting future recessions. However, he enumerates two caveats – correlation is not entirely causation, and the current cycle has proven to be more nuanced since the onset of the Great Moderation in the early eighties. He also emphasizes the imbalance in the labor market, with the federal government slowing down the economy without pressuring businesses to lay off employees. He presents his definition of a soft landing in terms of the ongoing inflation and status of the employment market and rates – the slowing down of the economy below potential while avoiding recession that causes companies to overreact. He states that the odds of a recession happening over the next two years are 35%. As gas prices are climbing, Lotfi highlights that demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the energy market instead of shrinking the demand side of the equation. He compares the effects of oil shocks on the United States and the European markets. The US economy is protected from the negative consequences due to a meaningful offset. Whereas Europe, they heavily rely on Russia to import their commodities. Lofti defines the current cycles as unpredictable and having more complex qualities. While the credit cycle is fairly young, the general business cycle is far ahead in its lifetime, making it impossible to tell if it is currently in recovery. Regarding inflated housing prices, Lotfi says the average monthly mortgage payment in the U.S. has increased by 41% in 2022. This is largely caused by tight inventories and real estate companies building fewer structures than needed. The episode ends with Lotfi’s interpretation of why companies are choosing to hire local talent rather than investing in foreign labor. The slowdown of globalization to regionalization has resulted from varied factors, such as the COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The pandemic has brought to light previously hidden weaknesses in how companies manage their supply chains.

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State of CRE with Kris Mikkelsen, EVP of Investment Sales, Aaron Appel, SMD of Capital Markets, and Ivy Zelman, EVP of Research & Securities - 2nd Appearance May 07, 2022

Show notes

Power is in the hands of the ones with cash – that’s the general prediction of the corporate real estate market moving forward post-pandemic. With multi-family companies throwing money at more rental housing and inflation numbers at an all-time high, the future is uncertain as consumers struggle to afford a place to live. Research and Securities Executive VP Ivy Zelman, Investment and Sales Executive VP Kris Mikkelsen, Capital Markets Senior Managing Director Aaron Appel join Willy Walker on this week’s Walker Webcast as they dissect the current condition of the corporate real estate industry, why money is king, the probability of a soft landing versus a hard landing, and their thoughts on the best areas to invest in right now. Ivy Zelman sheds light on how rentals are unsustainable as more capital is flowing into the space, and a backlog of properties without leases exists. She also points out the disconnect between buyers’ willingness to pay and sellers’ expectations. Kris Mikkelsen lays out where he would put on his dollars – capital assets where rates can be reset and capital in markets with strong growth fundamentals and low risk. He emphasizes a lower leverage point and the ever-changing cost of homeownership in the past three months. Aaron Appel believes the future of CRE isn’t completely bleak, as time and time again, we’ve witnessed the market adjusting when there’s enough distress. But with the country’s escalating debt, inflation comes as a result of working to overcome it. Tune in to this new episode of Driven By Insight — CRE State of the Union with Ivy Zelman, Kris Mikkelsen, and Aaron Appel.

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