The Tech Strategy Podcast

Latest Episodes:

More Lessons in Digital Operating Basics from Ram Charan. Part 2 of 2 on “Rethinking Competitive Advantage”. (99) Sep 12, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is my second on Ram Charan’s new book “Rethinking Competition Advantage“. I think it has a lot of great insights about the basics of digital operations.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.
Here is my summary of digital operating basics (Dr. Ram’s book combined with some of my own thinking):

Scale and growth at small incremental cost.
Continuous personalization and customer-facing innovation.
A digital core for operations.
Ecosystem and connectedness.
People, culture and work design create a social engine that enables innovation and execution – increasingly personalized for each customer.
Money-making at scale makes the company sustainable. It enables continuous innovation, including big bets where the ability to withstand losses is important.

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Digital Operating Basics

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

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Lessons in Digital Operating Basics from Ram Charan. Part 1 of 2 on “Rethinking Competitive Advantage”. (98) Sep 06, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about Ram Charan's new book "Rethinking Competition Advantage". I think it has a lot of great insights about the basics of digital operations. But not much about competitive advantage.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.
Here is my interpretation of the book's digital operating basics:

A personalized consumer experience is key to continued growth. Continually innovating on the consumer experience enables cross-selling more and more products and services to a broad audience. A "market of one" is the ultimate personalization.
Companies need a digital core for operations. Algorithms and data are essential weapons.
A company needs an ecosystem. Every major player needs at least 10 partners for sharing data, meeting a range of consumer preferences, growing faster than it otherwise could and continually refreshing with technology and innovation.
Companies need powerful moneymaking models. Target a big opportunity and increase cash gross margin by innovation and cost reductions over time. Fund multiple experiments against consumer experience. Add revenue streams on the same digital core.
People, culture and work design form a social engine that enables innovation and execution personalized for each customer. Decision-making is designed for innovation and speed.

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Digital Operating Basics

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

———-
I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

Pinduoduo, Etsy, and OTC: How Specialty Ecommerce Can Thrive Against the Giants. (97) Aug 29, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about assessing specialty ecommerce companies (i.e,. the anteaters) vs. the ecommerce giants (i.e,. the lions). Which will survive? Which will thrive?
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.
Here are my 5 questions (thus far) for assessing the viability of a specialty ecommerce company.

Is the company sufficiently differentiated in the user experience?
Can the company compete and/or differentiate in logistics or infrastructure without ongoing spending?
Does the company have a strong competitive advantage in a circumscribed market?
Is there a clear path to significant operational cash flow?
Has the company avoided markets and situations that are attractive or strategic for the major ecommerce companies?
Addendum: Don’t overestimate first mover, virality or growth hacks.

Here's my assessment of various specialty ecommerce companies:

Thriving:
- Etsy – huge suite of unique products for mass market by capturing unique merchants.
- Oriental Trading Company – unique product for niche market by unique logistics.
- Pinduoduo - engagement driven ecommerce.
Survive, but questionable:
- Global-e – cross border logistics
I'm not optimistic:
- Dingdong
- Farfetch
Situations that may be overestimating first mover, virality or growth hacks.
- Delivery Hero:
- Shein

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Specialty Ecommerce
Interactive and Engagement-Focused Ecommerce

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Etsy
Oriental Trading Company
Pinduoduo

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

What Worries Me About Alibaba Long-Term (96) Aug 22, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about the recent political issues around China tech and Alibaba in particular.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.
——
Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Role of the State
Uncertainty Investing Approaches

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Alibaba

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

4 Reasons Why Didi and Ctrip Should Merge (95) Aug 15, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about Ctrip, Didi and their current situation as subscale services marketplaces in China.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes and Google Podcasts.
4 Reasons Didi and Ctrip should merge:

They are both subscale in B2C digital China
Both are exposed. And industry barriers in services are shifting and falling.
They are complementary in terms of users, usage, data and cash flow.
Meituan is coming. It is likely it will enter ride-sharing, just like it did in accommodations.

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Indirect Network Effects
Marketplace Platform for Services

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Ctrip
Didi

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China Discussion with Kevin O'Leary. Plus Foodpanda, Digital Basics and the Standard Digital Playbook. (94) Aug 09, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about how to profit from political involvement in China tech. But really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about how to benefit from the State as the mother-of-all catalysts.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.
Here is the marketing material for OShares OGIGX.

OGIGX Index Presentation 2021Q2- June 2021 end

Here is the Standard Digital Playbook:

Target a 10x or 100x market opportunity.
Grow users and revenue.
Capture and grow cash gross margin. Not the %. The cash.
Flood cash into new revenue streams and innovation to improve the user experience.

That playbook is all about building a digital business on the demand side. It is about identifying a big opportunity and then systematically improving the consumer experience and going after related consumer problems.
However, this also usually results in negative operating profits until sufficient scale is reached. The gross profits are positive but the operating profits are negative. Often for a long time. However, with increasing scale the operating leverage eventually kicks in and the big profits are revealed.
Here is a list for the Digital Basics:

Growth and Scale
Digital Core
Ecosystem, Connectedness and Coordination-Based Business Models
Leadership and Management
People, Culture and Talent
Operating Cash Flow. The Cash Engine.

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Digital Basics
Digital Playbook (Standard)

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Delivery Hero / Foodpanda

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky.

Support the show

How to Profit from Politics in China Tech (93) Aug 04, 2021

Show notes

Ride the big waves from top-down initiatives
Copy Cheah Chang Hye (Value Partners). Buy and sell unfollowed and obscure China bargains.
Demand a bigger margin of safety
Buy and sell fast (Ben Graham).
Buy quantitative certainties (Ben Graham).
Buy great companies and hold long-term (Philip Fisher).

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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Role of the State
Giants, Dwarves and the State
Catalysts

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Suntech
Cheah Cheng Hye / Value Partners

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

How to Assess Political Risk in China Tech (92) Jul 26, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about political risk in China tech, but really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about making investment decisions on uncertain terrains.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.
Here are five investment approaches to uncertain environments.

Stay out.
Buy and sell fast.
Focus on quantitative certainties. Tangible assets.
Focus on really great businesses. And qualitative factors. Buy and hold through tough times.
Demand a bigger margin of safety.

How to assess the role of the State and political risk:

Question 1: Does the State have an active role in this sector?
- If so, don’t go forward until you can understand it. It is one of three key forces.
- If no role, then you can view this with a typical industry approach.
Question 2: If there is an active role, what are the State’s interests? What is the evidence for this?
- Is it actively supporting?
- Is it against against rapid or significant development?
- Is it just muddy and mixed?
Ques 3: If it is actively supporting, then ask how this firm is advancing the State’s interests? How is it working with govt? That is the main thing that matters.

About Giants, Dwarves and the State. See my webpage link.
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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Role of the State
Giants, Dwarves and the State

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Philip Fisher
Ben Graham

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

Lessons from Warren Buffett on Compounding and Competitive Advantage (91) Jul 21, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about Warren Buffett and combining competitive advantage with compounding.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.
Slides are on my webpage.
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Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Compounding
Competitive Advantage

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway

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I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

Can Dingdong Win in Groceries and Specialty Ecommerce? (90) Jul 13, 2021

Show notes

This week’s podcast is about Dingdong, a specialty ecommerce player in China focused on fresh groceries. It has gone public while still operating profit negative - but brings to mind a similar situation with Meituan at IPO.
You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.
—–---
Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

Purchasing Economies
Economies of Scale - Geographic Density
Explore and Exploit

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

Dingdong

———
I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.
I also run Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.
This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

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