Show notes
Inflation is here, housing supply is in a crunch, and supply chain shortages, among other factors, are affecting the construction of new starter homes. In this episode, we dissect a recent article from CNBC documenting rental rates and weigh in on what we think this means for real estate investors.
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Transcripts
Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.
What's going on everybody? Welcome to another episode of The Remote Real Estate Investor . I'm Michael Albaum and today I'm joined by my co host,
Emil:
the lovely Emil Shour,
Michael:
the lovely self proclaimed lovely Emil Shour. And today we're gonna be talking about rents. Where are they going? What are they doing? What can you expect in the near future? So let's get into it.
Alrighty, Emil, what do you think I've got an article here from CNBC. Talking about where rents are going in the near future, what they've been seeing what the markets been doing. Why do you think they're going up? Down? Sideways? No, change your prediction?
Emil:
I think they're going up. I don't think they're going to go up as fast as we've seen in the last year, which has been pretty astronomical. But I think they're going up, inflation is here, rents have been going up with it, there is a supply crunch in housing, all those things to me mean, rents will continue going up because takes a while to build new housing supply is slow to come to the market builders aren't building like crazy, like they did before 2008. So you know, all those signs to me point that rents are going to continue going up, although I don't think it's as quick of a pace of as they have over the last 12 months.
Michael:
Yeah. When you say that home take a while to build and you're clearly someone that has never played the Sims before, because we just got like all those construction crews out here like you just pop them up all over the place. Right?
Emil:
That's right. I wish it was that easy. Maybe like prefab homes, they can just start plopping them down. But you know, even those built around community, everything I've read, and again, you know, you're reading stuff take with a grain of salt, but everything I've read, it sounds like builders are much slower and hesitant this time around, because a lot of them still remember the after effects of leading up to 2008, where they overbuilt and then they were left holding the bag with all these all these developments. So what I keep reading is demand is high. And they are very, very slow and methodical building new supply. Plus, there's a lot of regulation and restrictions, I think, in a lot of places that are preventing new housing preventing it from going up quickly.
I think all those factors. Again, I'm not an expert, but just based on what I've read. Supply is not going up as quickly as people hope it would.
Michael:
Yeah, that makes sense. And I mean, I know that you're a very well read person. I'm curious to get your thoughts shaking your head. I'm curious to get your thoughts on how did we get here? I mean, how did we get to such I was talking with um, I forget who I was speaking with. But they were saying like, we're 5.5 million homes shy of where we need to be. How did we How did we get here?
Emil:
Again, I am no expert. I I read stuff on, you know, my Apple news app. I read it on Twitter.
Michael:
Reddit, Facebook
Emil:
I think it's the same thing I'm talking about right? I think after 2008 When there was a lot of overdevelopment support, like all these charts, you see, you see like building building, building new supply going up fast leading up to 2007 2008. And then it just falls off a cliff. And since then it hasn't, it hasn't caught up. It's been a very slow build. I don't think we've even caught up to those 2007 levels of building of do build. So it's just been really slow. Again, I think it's just builder a lot. A lot of builders probably got wiped out. A lot of people still remember that time. So it's just been it's been slow. Is my understanding.
Michael:
Yeah, I totally agree. I think that we're seeing that lag. There's like the lead and lag measures and we're totally This is our lag measure of like, stuff isn't being built fast enough. Nor was it being built fast enough over the last decade or so. And so now we're feeling the squeeze. And I think that's compounded with supply chain issues like and lumber issues. I mean, lumber has gone up like 300% Over the last 18 months I think something outrageous and I know I felt that
Emil:
Did it do I thought it I went up high and then it dipped is it back up?
Michael:
I think that it is back up. I'm I don't want to be quoted. But I think that it's it's definitely higher than it was pre pandemic level. So while you're doing that, I mean that just that just goes and adds additional stress and costs to new builds. And so the prices, the end prices of those just tend to be higher. or
Emil:
So okay, May 2021. It peaked at, I don't know, whatever this this index on nasdaq.com is looking at 1600 Peak, and then it dipped to in the summer to like 456. And now it's it's back up to 950. So done a little U shaped not quite back up to that level it was last year. But yeah, you're right.
Michael:
I know when I get my material bills for my development project, that's still expensive as I get up.
Emil:
You're like, I know. You're in it.
Michael:
Yeah, yeah. General Contractor, Emil told me that the lumber prices have actually come back down. So yeah, we'll just work that in the budget. So in this article that CNBC came out with, they they quoted a core logic study that that CoreLogic did, and they surveyed single family rents over the course of the year across the country. And in August 2021, they jumped, and more than 9%, on average from your prior, which if you think about it, is like outrageous. If you think about getting 9% 10% 8% Rent bumps, I mean, in the restock Academy, we have our pro forma a calculator that we use, and I think we use like two or 3% for rent bumps, in terms of year over year increase. And so we're just keeping up with inflation, or just beating inflation, because we don't normally use two to 3% for inflation.
So we're just outpacing I mean, this is blowing the socks off inflation, even at five 6% What inflation has been last couple of months. This is still significantly better. So Emil, you and I were talking before we started recording here about what this says for the future of investors for investing in the space. I mean, what is this signal to you? 9% rent growth? Granted, we've seen prices climb like crazy. What are you thinking about the future? You're kind of near to mid term investment horizon.
Emil:
I mean, to me, if I was investing now, I'd be feeling really excited. I feel very excited, having had bought real estate years ago, and now it's gone up. That's the best time to buy was years ago. And when's the next time best time to buy is now? Which can always be said over a long enough time horizon. But right, yeah, man, if I if I'm an investor, and I see the rates are increasing, and they're doing these studies, and you know, reputable sites like CNBC are talking about this stuff. No one ever really knows where it's going. But if I was an investor, I'd be I'd be pretty excited knowing rents going up.
Michael:
Yeah, I feel the same. And I mean, I think this is also not a fad. And this is not a short, this does not seem like it's going to be short lived. If we are millions of properties shy of word demand is both on you know, on the home owner side, that just means that people are going to continue to rent for a long time until that that is caught up with and 9% is nothing to scoff at. And
Emil:
So let's talk about our I'm curious use you still own you and some single family still. Have you had any come up for lease recently versus your multifamily? Like, I have a triplex and it's been a little bit harder than expected to rent recently. And all my single family stuff, like we've been able to get rent bumps and renewals like fast. No problem.
Michael:
Yeah. So my single, my single family that I have on a long term lease in Southern California has not come up for renewal, they're dealing with some COVID issues still. So we're working with a tenant there, but they're month to month right now. But my primary residence that I converted to a short term rental during COVID, that we were getting awesome rents are on a short term basis. And then we actually got that rented out on a year long lease at the same rent we were getting from the short term renters for our long term renters for long term contract. And now we just put utilities on them as well.
So we were just over the moon, about that. And so the demand is seemingly through the roof, which is awesome. Yeah. And so again, I think that speaks to your point of like, it's still a great time to invest demand is still really strong, even if you have to compete and kind of elbow your way into the space. It seems like the rent growth is there to support it. And I'm curious to be able to get your thoughts if you're evaluating a property, and it is just about cash flow neutral, maybe a little bit of cash flow, but you with a 9% or even 8% or even 7% rent growth, you would it would kick you over into the cash flow positive fairly significantly. Is that speculative? In your opinion? Is that is that counting on appreciation or counting on a trend to continue for it to make sense? Are you okay? Because we have because of all the data supporting that?
Emil:
Yeah, I personally wouldn't. I would never Personally purchase a property where I'm either cash flow neutral or negative today in hopes that things go up. I'm only buying something that's going to cash flow and then hoping we get more cash flow right not not the other way around. I know investors, we've done webinars and stuff who completely have banked on appreciation, or not even appreciation buying in areas that have appreciated and looking for missed priced homes right below the median in that area. That's a great, I mean, honestly, if you really look at like, it's way easier to make a larger sum of money going that route, then cash flow, cash flows, like a slow trickle. But for me, I never want to come out of pocket on a monthly basis on any property. Consistently come out of pocket.
Michael:
All right, what if it was like 25 bucks, you know, you do your conservative underwriting, you're gonna make 25 bucks a month. And then with the rent growth, or potential rent hike for next year, you'd be at, call it 150.
Emil:
Only if I knew a renewal, like let's say it was a property. I did this with the triplex. I knew it was cashflow positive when I bought it, but I knew we were under market rent, yeah, we'd have to spend some money, but even factoring that in, we had some nice room to raise rents from where the market was at. And this is a year ago. And so like we've had, you know, rent growth, so it's now it's, it's going up even higher. So if you're buying it under that assumption, right? Not that it's at market rent, you think, okay, it's gonna go up another eight 9% Next year, I'd say if you're looking for a little something that has like a little more of value add on it or whatever, under market rent, then that's a different game. Sure. That makes sense to me.
Michael:
All right. Good to know.
Emil:
What about you?
Michael:
Yeah, I don't I don't know, as I asked the question here. I am thinking like, Oh, crap, I hope Emil doesn't ask me, I think that I would be probably more okay with it than it sounds like you would be. Because why the thing, the thing that I think people often forget about is like all of the benefits that owning real estate have for you and tax benefits is, is massively impactful. And especially for me at this stage in my investing career, and so cash flow, I mean, I'm so fortunate and so thankful that $150 a month, cash flow is not going to change my life, I spent the last 10 years building up cash flowing properties to be at this stage in my investing career in my life. And I I never tried to lose sight of that.
And so the difference between 150 versus 25 bucks for the potential of appreciation, and for the potential of rental increase, I think I'd be okay with that. And this just kind of goes to show you to all of our listeners, like it really depends on where you are in your investing career, what your investment thesis is that a Emil and I can be talking about the exact same property, it could be a go for me and a no go for him. And so just, again, I think this is a great a great kind of teachable moment of like, think about what your investment goals are not about what your neighbors are, what mine are, what Tom's or what Emil’s are. But think about what makes sense for you and your family when you're thinking about investing.
So I'll get off my soapbox now. But I when I go to calculate, like the total return on that type of property where there is good appreciation potential. There's maybe a little bit of cash flow. I think that could often that can make a lot of sense for me right now.
Emil:
Yeah, that's fair. I mean, that's the I think the awesome thing we've seen with this podcast is you know, bringing on different guests doing different things is like there's a lot of ways to win in real estate.
Michael:
Totally.
That was our episode everybody. Thank you so much for listening. Hope you enjoyed it. We love hearing comments, feedback from you all other episode ideas, things that you want to learn more about hear more about, so leave us a note in the comment section. And as always, we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing.
Emil:
Happy investing.