Stay Connected“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. Host Astead W. Herndon talks to the people whose decisions will make the difference.
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Republicans had a big day on Monday. Donald Trump picked J.D. Vance as his running mate. Two days after surviving an assassination attempt, he officially became his party’s presidential nominee. And the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee got underway, with a festive mood among the delegates.
The Run-Up is here in Milwaukee for the occasion. In special episodes this week, we’ll tell you what we’re seeing — and what that tells us about Trump’s Republican Party.
To kick things off, Jess Bidgood, who writes the On Politics newsletter, joined Astead to analyze key moments from Night 1.
Do you have a question about the 2024 election? We want to hear from you. Fill out this form or email us at therunup@nytimes.com
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You’ve seen the image by now: Former President Donald J. Trump has blood running down the side of his face. He’s being escorted off his rally’s stage by the Secret Service, and he pauses to look at the crowd, his fist proudly in the air.
It’s too soon to know how the attempt on his life on Saturday in Pennsylvania will affect the outcome of the race. But Trump’s allies have already made the shock of the assassination attempt, and the violence, part of a clear political message.
To hear them tell it, Trump and his party are under attack.
This sense of persecution has long been core to Trump’s message. And the events of the weekend will only amplify that.
Today, as the Republican National Convention gets underway, we’re digging into that message with the Trump supporters who most embody it. And we’re doing so from their unlikely headquarters, where they gather every evening in Washington D.C.: outside the D.C. Jail.
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President Biden is telling people to Google it. Former president Donald J. Trump is distancing himself from it. Even the actress Taraji P. Henson talked about it onstage at the B.E.T. Awards.
Project 2025. It’s a blueprint for an incoming conservative president — presumably Donald Trump — spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.
And now it is everywhere in this tumultuous moment of the 2024 presidential race.
But what is it? Is it a guide to a possible second Trump administration? And why are Democrats seizing on it now, as Mr. Biden struggles to quiet doubts about his ability to defeat Mr. Trump? This week, we’re working through those questions.
On today’s episode
Jonathan Swan, who covers politics and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for The New York Times.
Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California.
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The latest national poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows former President Donald J. Trump leading President Biden by nine percentage points among registered voters — a pretty big shift in his direction in the week since the presidential debate.
It has become clear in the past week that there is no obvious path to replacing Mr. Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee. But there is a strong desire among Americans for something different.
We heard that directly from voters we met last week in Kenosha, Wis., at a gathering of a group called Braver Angels. It’s a nonpartisan organization that finds common ground across political divisions, and it proved a perfect focus group after the debate.
We asked these deeply engaged citizens, who had chosen to spend their free time debating policy and politics, how they were feeling about their options for president in November.
Their perspective reinforced the gap that this unique political moment has exposed between voters and party leaders.
The questions are: Has Mr. Biden’s debate performance made the continuation of his campaign untenable? And what, if anything, should happen next?
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As you may have heard, Thursday night was the first debate between President Biden and former president Donald J. Trump. In short, it was not a great night for Mr. Biden.
The president’s debate performance triggered significant panic among top Democrats, who for months have been dismissing concerns about Mr. Biden’s age.
So, how is this happening? Despite all the concerns polls showed about age, how has the Democratic Party arrived at this moment?
That’s a line of inquiry The Run-Up has been putting to senior Democratic leaders for the past 18 months. And we wanted to revisit some of those conversations now in a special episode.
They include selections of our interviews with Vice President Harris, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison and Ron Klain, Mr. Biden’s former White House chief of staff.
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We don’t know exactly what will happen when President Biden and former president Donald J. Trump take the debate stage in Atlanta tonight.
We do know, however, that the first debate between the major party candidates is happening earlier in the election season than usual. And we also know that we’ve seen a version of this show before.
Their past matchups have featured bitter insults, constant interruptions and were political spectacles judged more on optics than on substance.
This year, considering that the candidates are offering radically different visions for the country, it’s hard to imagine an election in which the substance would matter more.
So, today, at least on “The Run-Up,” there’s no buzzer, no microphone muting and no debate-stage theatrics.
Instead, we call four Times colleagues to talk about what the candidates are actually promising for a second term on four key issues: the economy, immigration, abortion and foreign policy.
On today’s episode
Jim Tankersley, a reporter covering economic and tax policy.
Zolan Kanno-Youngs, a White House correspondent.
Lisa Lerer, a national political correspondent.
David E. Sanger, a White House and national security correspondent.
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For decades, the mainstream Republican position on abortion rights was clear: Overturn Roe v. Wade and send the issue back to the states.
But since June 2022, when the Supreme Court’s conservative majority did exactly that, Republicans have faced a question that few seemed to consider beforehand: What comes next?
In Arizona, that question is especially important. In that battleground state, Democratic groups have already mobilized to put a citizen initiative on the November ballot that would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s Constitution and help increase President Biden’s chances at re-election.
So this week, after spending time with organizers who support the ballot measure on the last episode, we are meeting its opponents and exploring the anti-abortion movement in Arizona, which finds itself fractured along new fault lines.
On today’s episode:
Matt Gress, a Republican state representative in Arizona
Jeff Durbin, pastor of Apologia Church, in the greater Phoenix area
Elizabeth Dias, national religion correspondent for The New York Times
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Arizona is a battleground state that both parties are desperate to win in November.
And right now, supporters of abortion rights in the state are in the midst of gathering signatures to ensure that, along with the presidential race and a competitive Senate contest, enshrining the right to abortion in the state’s Constitution will be on the ballot this fall.
The measure has broad support in the state, and Democrats are banking on that to drive a wide range of people to the polls to vote on the ballot measure — and, they hope, for Mr. Biden. But there’s no guarantee that will happen.
For the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could shape the 2024 election in Arizona.
This week: We’re with volunteers around the state — at a trailhead outside Phoenix and at Bunco night in Bullhead City — who are working to get the measure on the ballot, and we spoke with the people who were supporting their efforts.
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In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question.
Will this matter in November?
Over the past few days, our colleagues at The New York Times and at the Siena College Research Institute have been trying to answer that question. They spoke with 1,900 people they had previously polled to find out how they are currently thinking. Most people have not changed their mind. But some have — and they are moving away from Mr. Trump.
This week, Astead speaks with voters about how they are thinking about the presidential race after Mr. Trump’s conviction, including with people in one significant group: Trump supporters who said in October that if he were convicted and sentenced, they would back President Biden.
He also talks with Ruth Igielnik, who helps oversee polling at The Times, to understand the latest data and who is still on the fence in the race.
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While the political world waits for a verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, we wanted to take a moment to remember how we got here — especially the broader political context of the fall of 2016.
Mr. Trump is charged with falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels as part of a scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.
Back in 2016, Mr. Trump was down in the polls and worried about losing support from women voters, who would, the thinking went, punish him at the ballot box for the lewd “Access Hollywood” tape and anything Ms. Daniels might make public.
That of course is not what happened. And in the years since, assumptions about how women vote have come to feel more complicated.
To discuss this, we turn to two women who have spent many years thinking about what women want when it comes to politics and everything else.
Kellyanne Conway was Mr. Trump’s campaign manager in 2016 and senior counselor to him from 2017 to 2020. Celinda Lake was one of the lead pollsters for the Biden campaign in 2020.
In 2005, they wrote a book together called “What Women Really Want,” which argued that politicians needed to take seriously the particular desires of women, who make up more than 50 percent of the electorate.
So this week we ask: What’s changed since 2005? And do Ms. Conway and Ms. Lake still agree on what women really want?
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