The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

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Rosy Pink Unicorn Employment Numbers May 09, 2026

Show notes

https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/

Today’s show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven’t looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that’s worth paying attention to. If you’re interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you’ll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show.

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It is happening again. The headline employment report released today is much rosier than the reality. The news media reported on the headlines, and glossed over the details which reveal a deeper story of weakness in the economy.

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The Myth of Affordable Housing May 08, 2026

Show notes

Today we’re talking about affordable housing, and more specifically, whether the most viable path to creating new affordable housing might not be new construction at all.

There is a very common statement in the housing conversation, and it sounds something like this: We need more affordable housing, the implication being that therefore we need to build more affordable housing.

That sounds logical on the surface. But when you examine the economics, the statement begins to fall apart.

New construction today is expensive. Land is expensive. Labor is expensive. Materials are expensive. Insurance is expensive. Financing is expensive. Development charges, impact fees, utility connection fees, permitting delays, and code requirements all add cost before a single resident ever moves in.

When you add all of that together, the finished product has to command a certain rent just to be financially viable. That rent is often far above what most people would consider affordable.

This is the central contradiction in affordable housing policy. We ask developers to build affordable housing, but we impose a cost structure that requires market rents or government subsidy to make the project work.

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How Will Hormuz Hurt You? May 06, 2026

Show notes

On May 7, I'm hosting a webinar on Mind Blowing AI Use Cases. REGISTER HERE

On today's show we are looking at the commodities shortages that are not getting headlines and the ripple effect through the global supply chain of a wide range of products.

The impacts include aluminum, copper, plastics, adhesives, fertilizer, semiconductors, medical imaging to name just a few.

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Which Apartments Are Getting Squeezed? May 05, 2026

Show notes

Today we’re looking at the Houston multifamily market, and in particular, the pressure that is building in the middle of the market. We are talking about Houston specifically. But you can take the lessons from Houston and apply them to other markets in the US and probably elsewhere.

When people talk about apartment fundamentals, they often speak in broad averages. Occupancy is up. Rent is down. Absorption is positive. Cap rates are stable. But averages can hide a lot of insights.

The latest Q1 2026 multifamily report from Colliers shows Houston sitting at 90.4 percent occupancy. That number was unchanged from the prior quarter, and it was actually up from 88.6 percent a year earlier. On the surface, that sounds reasonably healthy.

But when you look under the hood, the story becomes more nuanced.

Houston delivered 6,469 new apartment units in the first quarter. That is a big number. At the same time, the market absorbed 3,578 units. So demand was positive, but it did not keep pace with new supply. That is the first warning sign.

Now, supply and demand do not affect every property the same way. The Colliers data shows that Class A properties absorbed 3,246 units in the quarter. Class C properties absorbed 678 units. Even Class D had positive absorption of 413 units.

But Class B properties recorded negative absorption of 759 units.

That is the story.

Class B is getting squeezed from both directions.

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Will Inflation Metrics Change? May 05, 2026

Show notes

https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/

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We’re talking about proposed changes to how inflation is calculated, and what that could mean under a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.

Now, before we get into the implications, let’s start with a simple premise. If you change how you measure something… you change the outcome. And if you change the outcome… you change the decisions that follow. That’s exactly what’s at stake here.

The Fed pays attention to the Core Personal Consumptions Expenditures index (Core PCE). But both of these measures have… let’s call them limitations.

They rely heavily on statistical adjustments. Hedonic adjustments. Substitution effects. Owner’s equivalent rent.

These are not trivial details. These are structural assumptions baked into the data.

For example, if steak becomes too expensive and consumers switch to chicken, the index assumes that substitution and dampens the measured inflation.

But here’s the problem. From a lived experience standpoint, people don’t feel like inflation has gone down. They feel like their standard of living has declined.

That disconnect between reported inflation and experienced inflation is one of the biggest credibility challenges facing central banks today.

And that’s where someone like Kevin Warsh could represent a shift. If a Warsh-led Fed were to move toward a more “common sense” measure of inflation—less adjusted, less modeled, more observable—you could end up with systematically higher reported inflation.

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Live - How To Address Workforce Housing? May 03, 2026

Show notes

This talk was live at the Fairmont Chateau Laurier on the Missing Foundation in many communities. The acute shortage of workforce housing.

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Senior Housing Demographics with Jerry Vinci May 02, 2026

Show notes

Jerry Vinci is based in Salt Lake City where he provides services for due diligence of senior housing including independent living, assisted living, memory care and skilled nursing.

To connect with Jerry, visit https://ccrgrowth.com/ or https://nordonadvisory.com/

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BOM - The Private Equity Playbook May 02, 2026

Show notes

Our book this month is The Private Equity Playbook by Adam Coffey

At first glance, this might look like a corporate finance book. Something meant for Wall Street dealmakers. But that would be the wrong conclusion.

Because at its core, private equity is about something very familiar: buying assets, improving them, and exiting at a profit.

That’s real estate.

And what this book does exceptionally well is lay out the rules of that game—clearly, practically, and without a lot of academic theory.

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Vertical Integration Is Back Apr 30, 2026

Show notes

For the past several decades, the dominant playbook was globalization and specialization. Companies outsourced components to the lowest-cost producer, often halfway around the world. Supply chains became long, complex, and highly optimized for cost.

On paper, it made perfect sense. If a supplier could produce a component cheaper and sell it to multiple competitors in the same industry, everyone benefited from economies of scale.

But there was a hidden assumption baked into that model. The assumption was that supply chains would always function smoothly.

And we now know that assumption was flawed.

Over the past several years, we’ve seen disruptions from pandemics, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and transportation bottlenecks. What used to be considered low-probability events are now happening with uncomfortable frequency.

Supply chains are no longer just an efficiency mechanism. They’ve become a source of risk.

And when risk enters the equation, the optimal strategy changes.

We’re now seeing companies rethink their dependence on third-party suppliers for critical components. In many cases, they’re bringing production back in-house. That’s vertical integration.

Not across the board. Not for every component. But selectively, for the parts of the value chain that are mission-critical.

That's changing demand for industrial real estate.

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My December Fed Prediction Came True Apr 30, 2026

Show notes

https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/

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On December 10 of last year I published an episode of the podcast that summarized the rules for how the Federal Open Market committee elects their chair. The Federal Reserve Act requires the Fed Chair to be elected in the January meeting for the balance of the year. It has been customary for a Fed chair to resign their position as Fed chair and to relinquish their seat on the FOMC in order to create space for the incoming chair to take their seat on the committee.

On December 10, I made it clear that the committee has followed the custom of electing a new chair in January, and then after the resignation of the chair, making way for the new Fed chair to take their seat. While unprecedented, the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell would not be required to resign and it would in fact require a change to the Federal Reserve act in the Congress and the Senate in order to force the Fed chair to resign.

I put this forward as a distinct possibility.

Well, as fate would have it, today Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that he would not be stepping down, and that he would only do so when he felt that conditions were right to protect the integrity of board as a whole.

Powell is clearly signaling to the President the terms under which he gets to appoint his new Chair. This is a high stakes game of chess. It will continue to make headlines probably for days and weeks to come.

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