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    Business

    The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

    Welcome to The Real Estate Espresso Podcast, your morning shot of what’s new in the world of real estate investing. Join investor, syndicator, developer, and author Victor J. Menasce as he shares his daily real estate investment outlook. Our weekday episodes deliver 5 minutes of high-energy, high-impact content to fuel your success. Plus, don’t miss our weekend editions featuring exclusive interviews with renowned guests such as Robert Kiyosaki, Robert Helms, Peter Schiff, and more.

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    Copyright: © 424617

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    Latest Episodes:
    Steve Rozenberg Nov 19, 2022
    Show notes

    Steve Rozenberg is based in Houston Texas where he flies 777 for a major airline, and he also invests in real estate. We discussed the mindset of a pilot and how it makes him a better real estate investor. You can learn more or connect with Steve at SteveRozernberg.com.

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    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    Things Are Different Now, or Are They? Nov 18, 2022
    Show notes

    Folks there are about six weeks remaining in 2022. I believe goal setting is a critical component of success. If you have not started planning for next year, you are probably going to start the year without a solid plan. If you’re planning in January, then you missed the starting gun. Every year, our team takes three days to plan the upcoming year. This year, we will be doing that work from December 9-11. It will be a face to face session held over those three days in Ottawa Canada. We have only a few number seats available for those who would like to participate in our planning process. This would be a seat at the table with our team as we develop our individual and personal goals for 2023. If you would like to spend these three days with us, send an email to goals@victorjm.com and we will send you information on how you can participate and work on your own goals following what we believe is a very solid process for goal setting. Send an email to goals@victorjm.com

    On yesterday’s show we talked about the importance of learning from the GFC. It seems that the root causes of the financial crisis have been glossed over and not properly dealt with.

    Ben Bernanke who was the Fed chairman at the time has gone on record and said that the scope of the subprime mortgage loans was not sufficient to explain the magnitude of financial destruction that took place during those years. He also went on to say that the Fed lacked the tools to effectively deal with the crisis.

    The Fed stepped in to bail out some institutions. But the crisis did not appear first in the US. The cascade of dominoes started overseas and did not involve any US entities at first.

    The first inkling of a problem happened on Aug 7, 2007 when trading in three funds based in Lichtenstein virtually stopped. These were money market funds, denominated in US dollars, trading in London and securitized a basket of assets that were considered to be high quality, on par with US Treasuries in terms of quality.

    A credit bubble appeared in both the United States and Europe. This tells us that our primary explanation for the credit bubble should focus on factors common to both regions. Home prices in the UK, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and Australia experienced similar effects to the United States. But as we discussed on yesterday’s show, Canadian real estate was largely unaffected by the financial crisis. So why is that? What was different?

    Large financial firms failed in Iceland, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom, among others. Not all of these firms bet solely on U.S. housing assets, and
    they operated in different regulatory and supervisory regimes than U.S. commercial and investment banks. In many cases these European systems have stricter regulation than the United States, and still they faced financial firm failures similar to those in the United States.

    Did the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission really get to the root cause of the crisis?

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    Hoat: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis Nov 17, 2022
    Show notes

    I live in Ottawa Canada, and I invest primarily in the US. This fact has given me a unique perspective on markets. I started my investing career by investing in my home market. I made my first investment in 2006. After that, you might remember there was this little event that started about a year later. The Great Financial Crisis had a global impact in many ways.

    I saw the opportunity to deploy capital into markets that had seen a dramatic fall in price. I was still new at investing in real estate and I made a lot of mistakes in those days. Fortunately, prices were so depressed, that the market would eventually wallpaper over those mistakes. There were some powerful lessons from the GFC. What were they? Were the lessons global in nature or local?

    Not everywhere was impacted equally. Some markets suffered more than others.

    In fact, when real estate prices went down in Miami Dade County by 45.5% from 2008 to 2012, prices in Ottawa Canada went up 32.7% over that exact same five year period. In 2008 when prices in Miami fell by 28% in a single year, prices in Ottawa Canada went up 6.3%.

    So the question is why was Ottawa Canada so stable throughout the great financial crisis?

    If the GFC was all about subprime mortgages in the US, then why was the first bank to signal a problem on August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas, the second largest bank in Europe the one to come forward with a press release stating that they were having trouble valuing three funds that were on its balance sheet.

    The first financial institution to collapse was Northern Rock, a bank based in the UK. But wait, this was a US problem wasn’t it? What does Europe have to do with it?

    On tomorrow’s show we’re going to talk about what the GFC was truly about.


    Winning a Computer Game, But Losing In Real Life Nov 16, 2022
    Show notes

    On today’s show we are talking about inflation and whether higher interest rates will even help.

    When you listen to Fed chairman Powell speak, he spends a lot of time talking about inflation expectations. In fact, he mentions inflation expectations as being anchored in virtually every speech.

    So what is this anchoring of expectations and does it even matter?

    There was a paper published in May of this year by two economists who work for the Fed. Jae Sim and David Ratner wrote a paper entitled, “Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery”. In order to understand the paper we first need to describe the Phillips curve.

    The Phillips curve has longstanding model of inflation and employment, and perhaps the central model underpinning the Fed’s monetary policy. The experience in the last decade puts in doubt the stability and usefulness of the Phillips curve in predicting inflation and conducting monetary policy. First, the Phillips curve failed to predict the stable inflation seen in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

    In my opinion, there could be several explanations for this.

    1. There is real inflation happening underneath the covers which is not being captured in the CPI metrics. That’s one possibility.
    2. The model for predicting the way inflation and the economy works is fundamentally flawed and doesn’t track the real behaviour of the economy.

    A growing number of economists and commentators of different backgrounds have gone so far as to declare the death of the Phillips curve.


    Reversion To The Mean Is A Myth Nov 15, 2022
    Show notes

    On today’s show we are asking the question “Are we in an orderly market?”

    Market volatility can be a function of exaggerated trading activity. In extreme cases, it can be the result of market manipulation.

    In the world of real estate, there are those market experts who are saying that we need to look at the long term averages. If you look far enough back you can construct a rolling average. This thinking says that over the long term, home prices cannot exceed an average price to income ratio. Things will return to normal.

    If a household spends more than 30% of their household income on the cost of housing, then the cost is not sustainable. It’s not normal.

    But if that were true, house prices in cities like San Francisco, San Diego, Toronto, Vancouver, New York should not be anywhere near the levels that have been present in those markets for decades.

    There must be something else in play.

    These experts will tell you that eventually, over time, the prices will revert to the mean. Prices might fall below the mean for a period of time, then exceed the mean for a period of time. But eventually, prices always revert to the mean.

    I personally take issue with mean reversion theory. The problem with averages is that very few properties actually represent the average.

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    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    Hiring A Good Engineer Nov 14, 2022
    Show notes

    On today’s show we are talking about the importance of hiring the best engineers for your real estate development projects.

    Engineering is not just about technical knowhow. Engineering designs are multi-dimensional. When you fix one variable, you can often break another. When problems arise in engineering it’s almost always a result of an incorrect scope, or an incorrect assumption or understanding of the design requirements.

    When we hire engineers, the results are often mixed. There have been some painful lessons along the way. In all cases, we hired competent engineers. They understood the specifications and requirements of the city. At least we think they did.

    So how do you evaluate an engineer? It’s a little like evaluating a pilot. If the pilot still has their license, there is almost nothing to distinguish one pilot from another. Virtually any pilot who is active hasn’t crashed. One pilot won’t get you there faster than another. The aircrafts pretty much fly at the same speed.

    So too is the world of civil engineering. At least that’s how it appears from a distance.

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    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    Leslie Anne Morris Nov 13, 2022
    Show notes

    All the way from Nashville, Tennessee, Leslie Anne Morris specializes in short term rentals in the Smokey Mountains. Today's show is a deeper examination of the laws of supply and demand and how choosing the best location is vitally important when it comes to short term rentals. Her website is JoshsCabins.com or InvestInthesmokeymountains.com where you can book a short term rental or learn more about investing in the area.

    ----------------

    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    Matt Picheny Nov 12, 2022
    Show notes

    Matt Picheny is based in NYC where he started his career as a starving actor in live theatre. His journey into real estate investing is unique and inspiring. You can learn more and connect with Matt at picheny.com. Matt is also the author of the newly released book "Backstage Guide to Real Estate Investing".

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    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


    AMA - Ground Lease Nov 11, 2022
    Show notes

    Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything). Today's question comes from Collins

    I’m the owner of a nice property on one of the main highways in an area of south Alabama that has sustained steady growth over the last 30 years.

    In fact, the city recently placed a year long moratorium on development. I saw this time as an opportunity to achieve favorable zoning and have my land packaged for any would be purchasers or developers.

    I am a “land dealer” in the IRS’s eyes so I’m taxed at ordinary business income levels on land sales… furthermore, a 1031 exchange is also not applicable to the circumstances on this property, and I’d rather not take the tax hit on an outright sale.

    The restaurant chain, Five Guys, purchased a failed Pizza Hut not far from this location and they have signed a longterm ground lease with favorable payments and escalation clauses for the landowner.

    Which leads me to my question…rather than going through the top 10 google results… how can I identify companies who may be inclined to enter a ground lease with me as the owner so I can create a stream of longterm recurring revenue? (LRR)

    Big fan of the podcast!

    ------------------

    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com



    Construction Supply Chain Update Nov 10, 2022
    Show notes

    On today’s show we are talking about what’s happening in the world of construction. The supply chain shortages of the pandemic are continuing as China pursues it’s zero Covid policy. New lockdowns have been ordered in Guangzhou, one of China’s largest manufacturing hubs. So much of what we buy is sourced from manufacturing in China.

    Shortages are not only about materials. It’s also about labor.

    There is no doubt that some trades people are busy with a backlog that stretches 18 months or more. These projects were committed in 2020.

    But increasingly, I’m finding that lead times for both material and labour have shrunk to pre-pandemic levels.

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    Host: Victor Menasce

    email: podcast@victorjm.com


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