The Rational Reminder Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Episode 345 - AMA #3 Feb 20, 2025

Show notes

As we continue to answer your questions from our most recent AMA, Ben, Mark, and Dan begin today's episode with Bitcoin and how its value as an investment has changed over the years. Then, after briefly explaining how to find short clips of this podcast online, we discuss why many companies choose not to list directly on the TXS, how to implement factor investing without factor EFTS, the best way to invest if you could only make one EFT investment in your lifetime, and, and understanding buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs. We also cover expected returns in a corrupt market, return stacking for individuals, academia versus real-world applications, and why stock valuations will never be the same as they were in the past. To end, we look at lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging, what to remember regarding asset allocation, how we rebalance portfolios here at PWL Capital, and we wish Ben well as he awaits his diagnosis.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:30) Unpacking the value of Bitcoin as an investment; past, present, and future.

(0:09:58) Why we don't use YouTube Shorts anymore and how to find our bite-sized clips.

(0:10:29) Understanding why many companies refrain from directly listing on the TXS.

(0:11:29) An interlude on how we take care of our bodies.

(0:14:22) Implementing factor investing without factor ETFs, and Manulife's multifactor ETFs.

(0:19:21) What we would do if we could only invest in one ETF until retirement.

(0:22:23) Buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs.

(0:26:15) Market efficiency and expected returns in a low transparency/high corruption market.

(0:29:50) Whether return stacking is a good idea for individuals, and unpacking leverage.

(0:40:44) Balancing proven business philosophies with academic thinking.

(0:47:39) The Shiller PE Ratio; why stock valuations are permanently higher than in the past.

(0:54:58) Lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging.

(1:00:09) Asset allocation and how to know which assets to sell first.

(1:04:57) How PWL Capital rebalances client portfolios – an operational perspective.

(1:10:42) The after show: Testicular cancer and heartwarming reviews.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/

'Episode 80: A Planning Checklist, Portfolio Concentration, and Leverage' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/80

'Episode 343: How to Choose an Asset Allocation' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/343

'Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton: ICAPM, Retirement, and Models in Finance' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234

'Episode 335: What About Warren Buffett?' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/335

'Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen: The Building Blocks of Long-Run Returns' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202

'Episode 262: Prof. Francisco Gomes: Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle' — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/262

'Dan Bortolotti: Index Investing, ETFs and Financial Planning' — https://thewealthybarber.com/podcast/dan-bortolotti-index-investing-etfs-and-financial-planning-twb-podcast-9/

Manulife Investment Management — https://www.manulifeim.com/retail/ca/en

Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://www.dimensional.com/hk-en/financial-professionals

Scott Cederburg on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-cederburg-0917b0121/

Corey Hoffstein on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyhoffstein/

We Study Billionaires — https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/we-study-billionaires/

Hendrik Bessembinder | ASU Search — https://search.asu.edu/profile/2717225

Shiller PE Ratio — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

'What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?' — https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

Books From Today's Episode:

The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan — https://www.amazon.com/Only-Guide-Youll-Right-Financial/dp/1576603660

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406

'Why Not 100% Equities' — https://ibs-masters.narod.ru/olderfiles/1/asness_100equities.pdf

'A Conversation with Benjamin Graham' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4477960

'Forecasting Stock Returns: What signals matter, and what do they say now?' — https://fairwaywealth.com/wp-content/uploads/Vanguard-Research-11-30-2014.pdf

'Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum Investing' — https://pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Dollar-Cost-Averaging-vs-Lump-Sum-Investing.pdf

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 344 - Michael Mauboussin: The One Job of an Equity Investor Feb 13, 2025

Show notes

What if the key to successful investing is about understanding how market expectations, intangible assets, and even your own biases shape the outcome? In this episode, Cameron sits down with Michael Mauboussin, a renowned expert in investment strategies and behavioural finance, to explore how the evolving dynamics of investing influence valuation, investor decision-making, and market efficiency. Michael is the head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, where he teaches courses on investing and decision-making. His work focuses on behavioural biases, skill versus luck, complex adaptive systems, and valuation. In our conversation, we discuss the core principles of equity investing, unpack the evolution of intangible assets, and explore how market dynamics are influenced by index funds. You'll learn about capital allocation strategies, the shifting landscape of private equity, accounting challenges with intangibles, and how traditional investment frameworks are being redefined. Michael also provides insight into the "free dividend" fallacy, the importance of understanding the basic unit of analysis, the paradox of skill in active management, and more. Join us to learn about market and investing fundamentals to improve your strategy with Michael Mauboussin. Tune in now!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:08) What the primary job of an equity investor is and the origin of stock returns.

(0:05:37) Why dividends are less critical to total shareholder return unless fully reinvested.

(0:08:43) Dissect the behaviour of investors in dividend stocks and the "free dividend fallacy."

(0:10:01) Value versus growth classifications and how intangible assets impact valuations.

(0:16:39) Learn about the potential advantages for companies investing in intangible assets.

(0:20:20) How to determine a company's position in the competitive advantage life cycle.

(0:24:42) The phase that offers the highest returns and what to consider about newer industries. (0:26:18) Explore the tradeoffs of intangible-intensive companies and the impact on base rates.

(0:29:22) Pitfalls of valuation multiples and the implications for systematic value investors.

(0:32:25) Relevance of market metrics and how index funds have affected alpha opportunities.

(0:38:14) Effects of rising indexed assets and what to consider about market concentration.

(0:45:01) Discover the historical link between market concentration and future returns.

(0:46:31) How active managers benefit markets and misconceptions about skilled managers.

(0:48:46) The value of active managers and advice for structuring investment portfolios.

(0:52:44) Unpack the shift from public to private equities and why it happened.

(0:55:40) Insights into the benefits of private over public equities for investors.

(0:58:00) Ways intangible assets influenced the rise of private equity.

(0:59:27) What the market says about future returns and using public equity for diversification.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Michael Mauboussin — https://www.michaelmauboussin.com/

Michael Mauboussin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-mauboussin-12519b2/

Michael Mauboussin on X — https://x.com/mjmauboussin

Columbia Business School — https://business.columbia.edu/

Morgan Stanley | Counterpoint Global — https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/about-us/investment-teams/active-fundamental-equity/counterpoint-global-team.html

The Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing — https://business.columbia.edu/heilbrunn

Episode 332: Randolph Cohen and Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332

Books From Today's Episode:

The Success Equation — https://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing/dp/1422184234

More Than You Know — https://www.amazon.com/More-Than-You-Know-Unconventional/dp/0231143729

Expectations Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Expectations-Investing-Reading-Prices-Returns/dp/159139127X

Think Twice — https://www.amazon.com/Think-Twice-Harnessing-Power-Counterintuition/dp/1422187381

Creating Shareholder Value — https://www.amazon.com/Creating-Shareholder-Value-Managers-Investors/dp/0684844109

Capitalism Without Capital — https://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-without-Capital-Intangible-Economy/dp/0691175039

The New Goliaths — https://www.amazon.com/New-Goliaths-Corporations-Industries-Innovation/dp/0300255047

Security Analysis — https://www.amazon.com/Security-Analysis-Foreword-Buffett-Editions/dp/0071592539

—

Papers From Today's Episode:

'The Dividend Disconnect' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876373

'Trading Stages in the Company Life Cycle' — https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-gb/intermediary-investor/insights/articles/trading-stages-in-the-company-life-cycle.html

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 343 - How to Choose an Asset Allocation Feb 06, 2025

Show notes

Choosing an asset allocation is a crucial investment decision, as it determines expected returns and risk exposure. During this episode, we uncover what this means, exploring topics such as why risk may not always be the best assessment method. We unpack the three factors that John Grable's risk profiling framework considers: behavioural loss tolerance, the ability to take risk (which assesses the financial capacity to withstand losses without affecting lifestyle), and the need to take risk. Many investors sabotage their returns by selling after losses and buying after gains, and we discuss the reasons behind this. We also explore why stocks tend to become less risky over long horizons, while bonds can be vulnerable to inflation and interest rate changes, before explaining why investors should focus on compensated risks. In the aftershow, we address listener comments on absolute returns, XEQT, why we have made certain sponsorship decisions, and more. To gain a deeper understanding of risk and avoid common pitfalls that can undermine your returns, tune in today!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:05:10) The critical importance of choosing an asset allocation and understanding risk.

(0:08:35) How behavioural loss tolerance impacts asset allocation.

(0:18:42) Psychological theory on risk tolerance and willingness to engage in financial behavior.

(0:30:48) Assessing your need to take risks.

(0:39:24) Why market volatility is not where the true risks lie.

(0:47:42) Private credit, other portfolio alternatives, and GICs.

(0:53:03) The aftershow: demystifying the AMA controversy.

(1:00:20) Absolute returns, XEQT, and sponsorship on the Rational Reminder. (1:12:05) An update on Ben's health and what he has learned from this experience.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/

Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/

Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/

Papers From Today's Episode:

'The Grable and Lytton risk-tolerance scale: a 15-year retrospective' — https://static.arnaudsylvain.fr/2017/03/The-Grable-and-Lytton-risk-tolerance-scale-15-year-retrospective.pdf

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 342 - Matthew Ringgenberg: When Do Anomaly Returns Happen? Jan 30, 2025

Show notes

Today we are joined by the Professor of Finance at the University of Utah, Matt Ringgenberg to discuss everything related to anomaly returns. Matt's research – mainly centred on the actions of short sellers – has been published in all the major journals including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics, and the Review of Financial Studies. We begin with the definition of an asset pricing anomaly before learning about the anomalies that Matt's research is primarily focused on. Then, we unpack anomaly returns and how they relate to anomaly signal information, what causes anomalies, the risk versus mispricing debate, and the barriers to accessing financial data that allow anomalies to persist. We also weigh Matt's research against its anomaly-denying counterparts, assess anomaly behaviour before and after publicly available signal information, explore models that help to predict future anomalies, and learn more about the economic mechanism underlying asset pricing anomalies. To end, we dive into Matt's paper, 'The Loan Fee Anomaly' and explore the relationship between cross-sectional predictors and market returns, and Matt explains why long-term happiness is the only true marker of success.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:05:07) Matt Ringgenberg defines an asset pricing anomaly and describes the anomalies his research is focused on.

(0:06:27) When anomaly returns appear relative to the release of anomaly signal information.

(0:07:57) How the annual forming of portfolios in June affects anomaly returns.

(0:08:50) The cause of anomalies, and the risk versus mispricing debate on anomaly returns.

(0:10:35) Unpacking the barriers to accessing financial data that allow anomalies to persist.

(0:13:41) How Matt's rebalancing approach could affect anomaly-denying research.

(0:14:37) Applying his work to valuation-based anomalies and to investors capturing anomaly returns in live-traded portfolios.

(0:16:04) How anomalies behave before anomaly signal information is publicly available.

(0:17:48) Exploring the models that can be used to predict future anomaly signals.

(0:19:05) How anomaly premiums traded on predicted signals compare to trades on actual information release dates.

(0:19:37) Understanding the economic mechanism underlying asset pricing anomalies.

(0:24:38) Dissecting one of Matt's short-selling papers, 'The Loan Fee Anomaly'.

(0:32:51) The relationship between cross-sectional predictors and market returns.

(0:39:11) What Matt hopes to pass on to his students in his Introduction to Investments course.

(0:40:48) How Matthew Ringgenberg defines success.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Matthew Ringgenberg on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NArgYXUAAAAJ

Matthew Ringgenberg on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewringgenberg/

Matthew Ringgenberg on X — https://x.com/Ringgenberg_M

University of Utah — https://www.utah.edu/

Davidson Heath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidson-heath-5a28999a/

Management Science — https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/mnsc

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis — https://jfqa.org/

Morningstar Direct — https://www.morningstar.com/business/brands/data-analytics/products/direct

YCharts — https://ycharts.com/

Andre Chen — https://andrewchen.substack.com/

David Booth | Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://www.dimensional.com/hk-en/bios/david-booth

Papers From Today's Episode:

'A Conversation with Benjamin Graham' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4477960

'The Loan Fee Anomaly: A Short Seller's Best Ideas' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3707166

'Do Cross-Sectional Predictors Contain Systematic Information?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3459229

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 341 - PWL's Next Chapter Jan 23, 2025

Show notes

PWL Capital is undergoing an exciting change that will help the company bring a greater positive impact to the Canadian Wealth Management space and serve more clients effectively. In this episode, Ben Felix and Cameron Passmore welcome Mike Sullivan, co-founder of OneDigital, to share the inside story behind PWL Capital's recent decision to join forces with OneDigital. With nearly 25 years of experience in growth through acquisitions, Mike explains how their unique culture and strategic vision led to this exciting collaboration. We discuss Mike's role in driving OneDigital's expansion and how the company's values align with PWL's mission to offer low-cost, client-centric, systematic investing. He provides insights into why this partnership represents more than just a business transaction by amplifying a shared vision for Canadian investors. Our conversation also delves into the dynamics of mergers and acquisitions and examines the importance of culture and purpose in making these critical decisions. Today's episode offers a rare inside look at an M&A transaction with key players that many listeners will already be well-acquainted with. Tune in now to hear it all!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:16) Details on PWL Capital's decision to partner with OneDigital.

(0:14:31) An introduction to co-founder Mike Sullivan and OneDigital.

(0:16:38) How Mike knows when an acquisition will be a good fit.

(0:19:13) The opportunities for building a different kind of wealth management firm in Canada.

(0:21:14) What attracted Mike to PWL as a potential OneDigital partner.

(0:34:05) Mike's insights on applying what's worked to the Canadian marketplace.

(0:36:14) How being part of OneDigital will make PWL better.

(0:37:59) Mike and his co-founder Adam Bruckman's objectives for OneDigital.

(0:40:20) Why you shouldn't expect changes to PWL's service offerings or teams.

(0:45:02) How being part of OneDigital will help PWL assist other like-minded advisors.

(0:46:36) The typical advisor profile that PWL/OneDigital Canada would like to attract.

(0:53:15) Reflections on our hopes and goals: what we are looking forward to at PWL.

(0:57:45) Mike's definition of success, plus Cam and Ben's answer to the success question!

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/

Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Mike Sullivan on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikesullivanatdigital/

OneDigital — https://www.onedigital.com/

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 340 - Ben Mathew: The Lifecycle Model vs. Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR) Jan 16, 2025

Show notes

What drives the best financial planning decisions? In this episode, Ben Felix and Mark McGrath sit down with Ben Mathew, a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and author of Economics: The Remarkable Story of How the Economy Works. The discussion explores the lifecycle model of economics, a powerful yet underutilized framework for financial planning, and contrasts it with traditional approaches like safe withdrawal rates (SWR). Ben Mathew shares insights into the lifecycle model, its origins, and its practical applications in aligning financial decisions with personal goals over a lifetime. We also dig into Ben's innovative financial planning tool, TPAW (Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal) Planner, designed to bring the lifecycle model into practice. While the discussion delves into the complexities of financial planning, it's packed with actionable insights for listeners seeking smarter, evidence-based strategies. Join us for a deep dive into the lifecycle model and discover how it compares to traditional safe withdrawal rates.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:02:31) Identifying the main problem financial planning aims to solve and the biggest challenges in creating a plan for saving and spending across a lifetime.

(0:05:49) Exploring the effectiveness of simple rules of thumb, like the 4% rule, and the economic models available to analyze financial planning problems.

(0:09:16) Why the lifecycle model isn't more widely adopted.

(0:12:06) The basic premise of the lifecycle model.

(0:16:45) How withdrawals in the lifecycle model relate to amortization and how risk affects amortization-based withdrawals.

(0:21:12) Examining how amortization-based variable spending aligns with consumption smoothing and responds to portfolio drops.

(0:25:25) How updating expected return assumptions mitigates behavioural worry during market drops.

(0:26:37) The variability in spending seen in historical simulations, how variable spending can be tailored to individual preferences, and the recommended frequency for updating financial calculations.

(0:38:30) What the lifecycle model advises about asset allocation.

(0:42:00) The importance of expected return assumptions in lifecycle asset allocation advice.

(0:45:28) Adjusting lifecycle advice for when you have limited information about expected returns and how retirement glide paths compare to the lifecycle model. (0:50:03) How asset allocation in the model changes based on the time horizon of the goal.

(0:54:10) The influence of different wealth levels on asset allocation in the lifecycle model.

(0:56:43) How the safe withdrawal rate methodology works and key problems with its approach.

(01:08:11) Connecting the probability of success metric to the utility function and differentiating variable safe withdrawal rates (SWR) from amortization-based withdrawals.

(01:17:02) An overview of Ben's exciting online tool, TPAW (Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal) Planner, for bringing the lifecycle model into practice.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Ben Mathew — http://www.benmatheweconomics.com/

Ben Mathew on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/bmathecon/

TPAW Planner — tpawplanner.com

Bogleheads — https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

Books From Today's Episode:

Economics: The Remarkable Story of How the Economy Works — https://www.amazon.com/Economics-Remarkable-Story-Economy-Works/dp/0988669102

The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions — https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Billionaires-Better-Financial-Decisions/dp/1119747910

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 339 - 2024 Year-End AMA Pt 2 Jan 09, 2025

Show notes

In our second episode of 2025, Ben, Mark, and Dan continue to work through the listener questions we received in our 2024 AMA. We begin with home country biases and how to continue to grow your money from an already diversified portfolio before comparing the benefits of stock trading strategies and EFT portfolio strategies. Then, we discuss the impact of volatile blockchains on the wider securities market, whether you need to adjust your investment strategy when new tariffs are imposed, the ins and outs of terminal wealth management, the benefits of focusing on a total market index, and the personal finance perspective of renting versus buying in Canada. To end, we explore the best practices for increasing risk exposure, take a closer look at FIRE (financial impendence, retire early), assess investing behavioural biases and misconceptions that still pose a threat to even literate investors, and learn about how the Rational Reminder podcast is changing the lives of our listeners.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:01:59) Whether owning a home affects your home country bias and financial asset portfolio.

(0:02:43) The correlation between the economic risks of housing and the local stock market.

(0:07:21) How to keep growing your money if you already have a diversified portfolio.

(0:14:16) When to split your portfolio, and stock trading strategy versus EFT portfolio strategy.

(0:22:20) The impact of Bitcoin and volatile blockchains on the wider securities market.

(0:24:46) Adapting your investment strategy after the introduction or increase of trading tariffs.

(0:26:20) Maxing out tax-free savings accounts for non-incorporated high-income professionals.

(0:33:22) Switching to a total market index to avoid index funds that overvalue the market.

(0:37:48) Renting versus buying in Canada, from a personal finance perspective.

(0:42:39) The best practices for increasing risk exposure.

(0:51:19) Unpacking FIRE – financial independence, retire early.

(0:56:05) Balancing allocations between traditional retirement savings vehicles and real estate.

(1:00:56) Investing behavioural biases and misconceptions that harm even literate investors.

(1:09:24) Whether bonds actually exist, and everything we've changed our minds about in 2024.

(1:19:21) Shaping worldviews, on-demand information, and other highlights from your reviews.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/

Peter Mladina on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mladina-177194125/

Benjamin Felix Quote on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix/status/1760356591000301739

Robb Engen — https://boomerandecho.com/robb-engen/

Renaissance Technologies — https://www.rentec.com/Home.action?index=true

Long Blockchain Corp — https://cryptohead.io/acquisitions/long-blockchain/

Nick Maggiulli on X — https://x.com/dollarsanddata

Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/

Bitcoin Uncensored — https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/bitcoin-uncensored-463350

Episode 335 - What About Warren Buffett — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/335

Episode 332: Randolph Cohen & Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice' — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4590406

'Action Bias among Elite Soccer Goalkeepers: The Case of Penalty Kicks' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222676583_Action_Bias_among_Elite_Soccer_Goalkeepers_The_Case_of_Penalty_Kicks

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 338 - Peter Mladina: Factor Betas and ICAPM in Practice Jan 02, 2025

Show notes

In today's episode, we unpack how rigorous research translates into actionable strategies for wealth management. Ben and Mark are joined by Peter Mladina, Executive Director of Portfolio Research at Northern Trust Wealth Management and professor at UCLA. With an impressive body of published work and practical innovations like his goals-based asset allocation software, Peter offers a unique perspective on bridging the gap between theory and practice. The conversation delves into foundational topics like asset allocation and factor models, with a special focus on practical applications of research in wealth management. Peter shares insights from his research, including intriguing findings on factor investing and joint tests of market efficiency. From real estate investment trusts to the nuances of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the discussion covers how these concepts can directly inform financial planning and portfolio construction. Tune in to explore the intersection of academic insight and everyday financial decision-making!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:17) Introducing Peter Mladina and his wealth management research.

(0:04:00) Theoretical and practical shortcomings of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).

(0:05:24) How the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) resolves MPT's shortcomings, and how the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) resolves the CAPM and MPT's shortcomings.

(0:10:16) Key distinctions between an optimal ICAPM portfolio and an optimal CAPM portfolio.

(0:15:33) Allocating between liability hedge assets and risky assets, and when it's sensible for individual investors to try to fully hedge consumption liabilities.

(0:20:14) The role of Monte Carlo simulation and human capital in building ICAPM portfolios.

(0:24:15) Steps for practitioners starting with ICAPM and how to advise their clients.

(0:37:18) Insights from Peter's papers on factor models: why common risk factors should explain returns across most asset classes.

(0:40:11) The value of looking at asset classes through a factor lens.

(0:41:54) Main factors Peter uses in his research and observations on the zoo of factors.

(0:46:23) Takeaways from Peter's paper on real estate (and why he doesn't like it that much).

(0:56:45) Unpacking hedge fund returns and factor models and Yale's endowment performance.

(01:02:44) Peter's research on traded portfolios and jointly testing factor models and manager performance.

(01:07:14) How Peter defines success, both professionally and personally.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Peter Mladina on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mladina-177194125/

Peter Mladina on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=890472

Northern Trust — https://www.northerntrust.com/

Episode 169: John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Real Estate Betas and the Implications for Asset Allocation' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3134732 'An ICAPM Framework for Asset Allocation' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4319731

'An ICAPM for Goals-Based Investing' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4943241

'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790823

'Yale's Endowment Returns: Manager Skill or Risk Exposure?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2959074

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Episode 337 - 2024 Year-End AMA Dec 26, 2024

Show notes

As the year draws to a close, the Rational Reminder Podcast team delivers an engaging year-end special with a unique twist. Rather than curating clips from previous episodes, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath dive into an AMA-style episode, answering listener-submitted questions. They share reflections on lessons learned, highlight impactful community discussions, and provide thoughtful takes on investing strategies, personal growth, and financial planning. They discuss their evolving views on human capital integration, portfolio diversification, and the importance of behavioural finance in long-term planning. They also revisit key themes from earlier episodes and offer heartfelt thank-yous to their team and audience for a remarkable year. Join us for a mix of practical insights, entertaining banter, and a glimpse into what's ahead for the Rational Reminder Podcast. Don't miss this memorable year-end wrap-up!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:00) Episode format and a thank you to the PWL Capital team, producers, and audience.

(0:05:14) Influential community discussions and their insights on efficient ETF design.

(0:10:14) Hear the reason behind Ben's decision to shave his head for so long.

(0:13:51) How to integrate human capital into useful financial planning and strategy.

(0:19:33) They share their thoughts on the evolving definition of success in life and work.

(0:23:33) Their top finance and investment book recommendations for retail investors.

(0:28:50) Uncover the nuances of assessing a value premium within an ETF.

(0:30:46) How real-life events shaped their approach to providing guidance and financial advice.

(0:37:18) Return stacking and a comparison of Dimensional's and Avantis' vector portfolios.

(0:41:05) Risks of bonds, bills, and credit and why past returns do not guarantee future results.

(0:48:27) Explore the complexities of tax-efficient ETFs and Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) options.

(0:56:50) Balancing long-term investment assumptions with short-term market dynamics.

(1:03:23) We debate the U.S. market's valuation and the implications for asset allocation.

(1:10:15) Hard financial lessons from Ben, Mark, and Dan's investment journeys.

(1:16:29) Unpack the pros and cons of life insurance, infinite banking, and whole life insurance.

(1:28:35) Aftershow: reviews, Marks's beard, a final thank you, and more.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/

Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/

The Podcast Consultant — https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Morgan Housel — https://www.morganhousel.com

Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://dimensional.com/

Avantis — https://avantisfi.com/

Dan Solin — https://danielsolin.com/

Global X — https://globalxetfs.com/

Episode 138: Factor Investing in Fixed Income — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/138

Episode 163: Dave Plecha — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/163

Episode 198: Gerard O'Reilly — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/198

Episode 316: Andrew Chen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316

Episode 332: Randolph Cohen & Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332

Books From Today's Episode:

Are You a Stock or a Bond? — https://amazon.com/Are-You-Stock-Bond-Financial/dp/0133115291

Reboot Your Portfolio — https://amazon.com/Reboot-Your-Portfolio-Successful-Investing-ebook/dp/B09P4G9LR7

Wealthier — https://amazon.com/Wealthier-Investing-Field-Guide-Millennials-ebook/dp/B0CX2VD1CW

The Psychology of Money — https://amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681

Thinking, Fast and Slow — https://amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555

A Random Walk Down Wall Street — https://amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393330338/

Winning the Loser's Game — https://amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful/dp/1264258461/

Wealth Planning Strategies for Canadians 2024 — https://amazon.ca/Wealth-Planning-Strategies-Canadians-2024/dp/166871504X

Becoming Your Own Banker — https://amazon.com/Becoming-Your-Own-Banker-Infinite/dp/B001NZO1DS

—

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Who Are the Value and Growth Investors?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12473

'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/26/1/1/6484661

'Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice' — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4590406

Episode 336 - Steve Utkus: Investor Beliefs and Financial Advice Dec 19, 2024

Show notes

What shapes investor beliefs and behaviours? Steve Utkus, a leading expert in investor behaviour and former Global Head of Investor and Retirement Research at Vanguard, brings decades of groundbreaking insights to this episode. Drawing on exclusive access to Vanguard's anonymized client data and investor surveys, Steve uncovers the intricate links between what people believe and how they invest. In the first half, he reveals surprising findings from his research into investor beliefs and portfolio decisions. The second half dives into the impact of financial advisors, both human and robotic, on improving investor outcomes. Steve's reflections, enriched by years of collaboration with academic leaders and personal conversations with Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, offer a rare window into the world of data-driven financial research. Join us today for this fascinating conversation as we unpack fresh perspectives on investor behaviour and the evolving role of financial advice!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:20) The importance of understanding investor belief, Steve's unique approach to studying it, and the benefits of using survey data.

(0:08:37) Understanding the effects of individual beliefs on portfolio equity shares.

(0:13:40) How equity sensitivity varies with things like trading frequency and how observed sensitivity compares with predictions of an asset pricing model.

(0:17:27) The variation of beliefs across different groups and the strong effect of being a pessimist, optimist, or having a middle-of-the-road perspective.

(0:21:29) Investor cash flow expectations, how it affects stock return expectations, and how it aligns with models of equilibrium.

(0:24:35) The impact of stock market disaster expectations on future stock returns and the effect of COVID-19 on investor expectations.

(0:33:37) ESG investing motives, portfolio impact, and the role of financial returns.

(0:38:35) Unpacking the impact of robo-advisors on previously DIY investors and who benefits.

(0:45:21) Pros and cons of human financial advisors: the needs they satisfy over robo-advisors.

(0:53:12) How unadvised investors' needs differ from those who get financial advice.

(0:54:04) What determines how much value investors place on financial advice and how they think about the trade-offs between fees and the value of advice.

(01:00:00) Reasons traditionally-advised people give for not switching to robo-advising.

(01:03:15) Having a relationship with a good advisor: how it impacts investor behaviour through poor market performance periods, and the importance of frequent quality communication.

(01:13:07) The key attributes of a high-retention advisor and what they should be focusing on.

(01:19:02) Success, retirement, timing, and knowing when to leave, according to Steve.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Steve Utkus on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/steveutkus/

Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278

Books From Today's Episode:

Bogle on Mutual Funds — https://www.amazon.com/Bogle-Mutual-Funds-Perspectives-Intelligent/dp/111908833X

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Political Cycles and Stock Returns' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2920401 Scott Cederburg Paper — 'The Diversification and Welfare Effects of Robo-advising' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X24000928

'Who Benefits from Robo-advising? Evidence from Machine Learning' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3552671

'Human Financial Advice in the Age of Automation' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4301514

'The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3101426

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