The Polling Alley

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Episode 9 Jul 24, 2026

Show notes

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! These front-runners have been leading by double-digits in the polls, but contenders try to catch up as primaries near. We break down three governor's races and whether their campaign strategy seems to hold up. In this episode, we cover:

Is Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee lead actually collapsing? – Blackburn led John Rose by 53 points and Monty Fritz by 58 points in May. Recent polling has her rivals climbing into the teens, and her decision to play prevent defense could give them an opening. We break down whether Rose's establishment money or Fritz's grassroots online army has a real shot at closing the gap before early voting ends.
In Florida, will Donalds' Blackburn-esque playbook work? – Byron Donalds holds a 5-point edge on Democrat David Jolly in general election polls, but first he has to win the nomination. James Fishback and Jay Collins are each pulling double digits and could split the anti-Donalds vote. We discuss Fishback's online-first campaign, Collins running on a DeSantis endorsement he doesn't actually have, and why a contested primary could push whoever wins further from the center.
Wisconsin Democrats can't agree – Francesca Hong is sitting at roughly 75% on prediction markets while the party's moderate lane split between two candidates, one of which who already dropped out then was pulled back in. We analyze what a fractured primary means heading into November.

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Tennessee GOP primary internal poll, Blackburn - https://www.tennessean.com/story/news... 📊 TN GOP Primary, May 2026 Beacon Poll: https://tennsight.com/polls/may-2026/ 📊 Tennessee poll, Wick - https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Tennessee GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/tennesse... 📊 Florida primary poll, Donalds - https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2079... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Florida GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/republic... 📊 Wisconsin head-to-head polling - https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2079... 🎲 Kalshi odds, Wisconsin Democratic primary - https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsi... The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside host and Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Youtube - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 8 Jul 16, 2026

Show notes

Two new polls of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary released within days of each other disagree by twenty points on who's leading the field. Plus, who are "double haters" voting for in November?

In this episode, we cover:

- Which poll do you believe in Michigan's Senate primary? Detroit News and Data for Progress released dueling surveys on the Democratic Senate primary. One shows Haley Stevens up 7 points. The other, an internal poll from the Abdul El-Sayed campaign, shows him up 13 points.

- Republicans, be careful what you wish for. Some Republicans are rooting for El-Sayed to win the primary, betting he's the weaker general election opponent. We discuss why that strategy could backfire.

- Meet the "double haters." A new G. Elliott Morris/Verasight poll finds one in five voters rate both parties below 50 on a feeling thermometer scale. These "double haters" favor Democrats by 26 points. We unpack why this group leans left, and the one stat in the poll that actually matters for the midterms.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 7 Jul 10, 2026

Show notes

Two Senate candidates dropped out this week, and Maine Democrats scramble to find someone capable of beating Susan Collins.

In this episode, we cover:

- Who could replace Graham Platner in Maine and can anyone beat Susan Collins? Platner is out, and Maine Democrats have until the 27th to name a replacement with no clear heir apparent. We break down why PPP shows Troy Jackson leading while Janet Mills sits last, why Jared Golden's refusal to run changes everything, and why Collins is suddenly the favorite in a race Democrats thought they were winning.

- Paxton vs. Talarico: is Texas actually a coin flip? A new NYT/CNN poll has the race tied 47–47, with Talarico running eight points ahead of the generic Democrat. We analyze whether that's a strong candidate or a weak Paxton, why the betting markets still give Paxton a 75% edge, and what "getting platnered" could mean before November.

- Michigan gets even messier after McMorrow exits. With Mallory McMorrow out, it's Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens, but McMorrow's name stays on the ballot and she's declined to endorse. We discuss why El-Sayed's frontrunner status may be overpriced, what Emily's List jumping to Stevens signals, and why Republicans are quietly rooting for the progressive.

- In Georgia we look at why Jon Ossoff is cruising, whether his influence can land Keisha Lance Bottoms in the governor's mansion.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. W

ant to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 6 Jun 04, 2026

Show notes

Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance are leading the primary fields in Overton Insights' latest national poll. This is a special episode breaking down the March 2026 Overton Insights national poll, from presidential primary matchups to findings about unpopular political commentators and what voters think about a military draft.

In this episode, we cover:

Buttigieg leads, but can he actually win? Pete Buttigieg tops a crowded Democratic primary field at 16%, two points ahead of "Undecided" and three points ahead of Gavin Newsom. We break down why his lead is almost entirely a function of a fractured field, what receiving zero percent of the Black vote means for his ceiling, and why Kamala Harris at nine percent — tied with Bernie Sanders — may signal she's done before she starts.
JD Vance leads the Republican primary, but trails behind Rubio in head-to-head ballot test. Vance tops a crowded GOP field, but loses by six points in a head-to-head against Marco Rubio. We analyze what's driving Vance's decline, why Rubio's bipartisan appeal may make him more electable, and whether Ron DeSantis is actually more viable than his last campaign suggests.
Hasan Piker, Candace Owens, and the name ID reality check. Our poll tested favorability on a range of political figures from Spencer Pratt to Ben Shapiro to Erica Kirk. The crosstab that broke X? Forty-two percent of people who still live with their parents view Hassan Piker favorably, one of the only groups with a net positive. We discuss what name ID data tells us about the echo chamber problem in political media.
Military draft, sports betting, and independent voter drift. We found that 66% of Americans oppose a Trump-implemented military draft, though Republicans split nearly 50-50 when Trump's name is attached. We also cover sports betting sentiment (47% oppose legalization in their state) and look at how independents are tracking much closer to Democrats than Republicans in this poll.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Director of Polling and founder of the Beacon Poll and is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll crosstabs - March 2026 Overton Insights National Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-may-2026/

Episode 5 Apr 08, 2026

Show notes

Maine's Democratic Senate primary has a clear frontrunner in Graham Platner, but while he is now polling better than Susan Collins, can this momentum last in a general election matchup? Plus: does who pays for a poll tell you everything about the results? In this episode, we cover:

Is Graham Platner the inevitable Democratic nominee in Maine? New polling shows Platner leading incumbent Governor Janet Mills by 40 points in the primary and beating Susan Collins by nine in a general election head-to-head, while Mills trails Collins by three. We break down what the numbers mean for the race, whether Mills drops out before the primary, and how Platner is running the "Zohran Mamdani playbook:" anti-establishment, populist, and seemingly scandal-proof.

Is the Texas Senate runoff tightening, or is this poll just Democratic wishful thinking? A new GQR poll, commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by five points. We analyze who GQR is, why the poll's methodological choices matter, what the SAVE Act has to do with Trump's endorsement calculus, and why Mark still thinks Cornyn wins despite his underdog status.

Can you trust a poll paid for by the group that wants a specific answer? — A Morning Consult survey with "Gambling is Not Investing" asks adults whether prediction markets are gambling. We dissect how leading question sequences can manufacture results, why internal polls can be more accurate than public ones, and whether prediction markets are closer to futures trading than sports betting.

Hot takes: Spencer Pratt for mayor of Los Angeles? Mark makes what he calls his boldest prediction yet. Reality TV villain Spencer Pratt, whose house burned down in the Palisades fires, could pull off the biggest upset in modern political history against incumbent Karen Bass.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Episode 4 Mar 05, 2026

Show notes

Every poll showed Paxton leading in the Texas Senate primary — and every poll ended up wrong. Mark called it last episode, and he's back to explain why undecided voters are the key factor that most pollsters keep ignoring.

Check out The Polling Alley Podcast on Youtube 👉 The Polling Alley Podcast

In this episode, we cover:

Was the Texas Senate primary a polling failure or a lesson in reading between the lines? Talarico beat Crockett despite being down in nearly every public poll. We break down why Mark saw it coming.

Cornyn vs. Paxton: Who wins the runoff, and does a Trump endorsement help or hurt? The Texas Senate runoff sets up a three-month battle between the GOP establishment and the MAGA base. Michael argues a Trump endorsement of Cornyn could paradoxically boost Paxton.

Byron Donalds leads Florida's governor's race... but is it closer than it looks? A new James Madison Institute poll shows Donalds up 18 points in the GOP primary. We analyze what the undecided numbers reveal and whether Casey DeSantis entering the race could blow the whole thing up.

What do rapid-fire Iran favorability polls actually measure? Multiple polls dropped within days of Trump's military actions in Iran, and they were surprisingly consistent despite different question framings. We discuss why these results reflect emotional sentiment more than policy opinion, and why the numbers could look completely different a week from now.

Why do some Trump voters seem to be "forgetting" they voted for Trump? Michael critiques a new article from The Argument that examines panel data showing voters revising who they say they voted for in 2024.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Sign up to get exclusive access to new episodes! Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 3 Feb 13, 2026

Show notes

The Texas Senate primaries are a month away with both sides still a toss-up. Who's going to win, and does Texas finally have a chance of turning purple?

In this episode, we cover:

Is Texas becoming a purple state, or are Democrats fooling themselves? With two interesting primaries on both the Republican and Democratic sides, we break down why the Texas Senate race has gone national, why Emerson's polling is a major outlier showing James Talarico up double digits, and whether the Beto comparisons actually hold up. Plus, what a Trump endorsement could do to the GOP field. - Economic fairness vs. economic growth: What's behind the shift?
A new Rasmussen poll shows the 21-point margin favoring economic growth has nearly vanished. We analyze whether Trump's populist language is driving Republican voters toward "fairness," what it means that people feel left behind despite strong stock market numbers, and how the parties' economic coalitions are realigning.
Our latest Overton Insights Utah Poll results: From housing policy to the Jazz, we dig into what was suprising and what was totally expected. The majority of Utahns support accessory dwelling units in their neighborhood, back micro schools, and overwhelmingly support privacy protections.

Emerson Texas Senate Poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/

Rasmussen Economic Fairness Poll: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/rising_concern_for_economic_fairness

Overton Insights Utah Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-utah-january-2026/

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Explore our latest poll - Overton Insights Utah Statewide Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-utah-january-2026/

Episode 2 Dec 30, 2025

Show notes

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! In this episode, we're breaking down tight races in Ohio, what tax-free gambling could mean for prediction markets, and key local election results across the country.

Could tax-free gambling help or hurt prediction markets? – Trump recently told a reporter he'd consider eliminating taxes on gambling winnings. We discuss what this could mean for sports betting platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, how prediction markets might respond, and whether politicians should be allowed to bet on races they have inside knowledge about.
Ohio's surprisingly tight 2026 races – New Emerson College polling shows Vivek Ramaswamy's double-digit lead over Amy Acton has vanished, with Acton now up by 1 point. We break down what's driving the shift and look at the Senate race to fill JD Vance's old seat, where Jon Husted leads Sherrod Brown by just 3 points. Is Ohio becoming a swing state again?
Rapid-fire local race breakdown – From Miami mayor, to a closer-than-expected House race in Tennessee, to Omar Fateh's showing as a democratic socialist in Minneapolis, we analyze what these results do and don't signal for both parties heading into the midterms.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Emerson College Ohio 2026 Poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2026-poll-democrats-make-gains-in-races-for-governor-and-us-senate/

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - November 2025 Overton Insights Poll

Episode 1 Dec 02, 2025

Show notes

Welcome to the very first episode of The Polling Alley! In this episode we're diving deep into a debate that's dividing the data world: polls vs prediction markets. Mark and Michael also analyze the government shutdown's effects on the November elections and some interesting finds from our own latest poll.

In this premiere episode, we cover:

What's the difference between prediction markets and traditional polls? – We break down how prediction markets work compared to conventional polling, examine their accuracy, track record, and explore whether betting odds are the future of election forecasting.
Did the government shutdown influence the November 2025 off-year elections? – We analyze the polling data on public opinion before and after the shutdown to uncover whether it moved the needle with voters. Mark and Michael share their take as to which races saw the biggest impact, if any.
Key Takeaways from Overton Insights – We reveal interesting political findings from our own research and what they tell us about emerging trends, some of which you won't find in mainstream coverage.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns and former Director of Polling and Western Region for the Trafalgar Group. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

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