The Polling Alley

Latest Episodes:

How is The Midterm Map Shifting? Oct 02, 2026

Show notes

Less than five weeks until the election, Mark Cunningham calls these key governor races. Plus: new drama unfolds in Texas, and a new polls in Georgia and Ohio shed light on shifting dynamics.

In this episode, we cover:

Can Republicans hold governor's mansions in a blue wave year? - Mark's first gubernatorial predictions: Rick Jackson by 1.8 over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Vivek Ramaswamy by 1 over Amy Acton in Ohio, Jocelyn Benson by 8 in Michigan, Rob Sand by 3 in Iowa, Tina Kotek by 2.6 over Christine Drazan in Oregon, and David Crowley by 4 over Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Mark expects split tickets in Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa.
Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing Georgia? - A YouGov poll of about 3,300 likely voters shows a 10-point gap between Jon Ossoff's Senate number and Lance Bottoms' governor number. Mark explains why that moves the governor's race from lean D to a toss-up.
Why is the blue wave stronger in red states? - Olivia brings in Nate Silver's read on where the wave is landing. Mark argues voters are punishing whoever holds power: Trump in red states, Democratic incumbents in places like Oregon and Maine.
Will Ohio prove the polls wrong? - Mark runs down the latest polls of Ohio, and explains why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't translating in the polls while Sen. Jon Husted's low profile could be hurting him.
Is Trump dragging down Ken Paxton? - Paxton seemingly blames Trump and the RNC midterm convention for his campaign's troubles. Mark reacts and explains why he doesn't trust the Pulse Decision Science internal poll showing Paxton ahead.
How unpopular is the Iran war? - The Argument's national poll puts the war in Iran near Vietnam among the least popular U.S. wars of the last century, and finds Trump's approval falling as gas prices rise.

CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:35 - Headlines: two Michigan polls, a Paxton internal, and Cook shifts in Florida and Texas 01:49 - Mark flips his read of the Georgia governor's race to Rick Jackson 02:21 - Governor calls for Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa 04:16 - Oregon: the governor's race where Republicans could pull an upset 05:35 - Wisconsin after the Marquette poll 06:17 - Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing her lead? 08:46 - Why the blue wave seems strongest in red states 10:20 - Ohio may be the test of whether the polls are wrong 13:17 - Why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't helping him 16:29 - Paxton's leaked audio and new internal polling 20:12 - The Argument: Iran war, gas prices, and Trump's approval

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Michigan Senate poll (Cygnal/Beacon): https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/ 📊 Fox News Michigan Senate poll: https://www.foxnews.com/fox-news-poll-methodology-statement 📊 Pulse Decision Science Texas Senate poll (Paxton internal): https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2105048317780771129?s=20 📊 Co/efficient Maine Senate poll: https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/ 📊 YouGov Georgia poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105347162850607610?s=20 📊 Big Data Poll Ohio Senate poll: https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/ 📊 Marist Poll Ohio: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2104786340403675323?s=20 📰 The Argument polling article on wars and gas prices: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Can Republicans stop the blue wave? Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

Six weeks out from the elections, we lay out our first Senate forecasts and review the week's biggest poll drops.

In this episode, we cover:

Who wins the Senate six weeks out? Mark makes his calls in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
Is Michigan slipping away from Mike Rogers? NYT/Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up 49% to 44%, and Suffolk has El-Sayed +7 points, his biggest lead since Labor Day. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean D, while Cook still rates it a toss-up. We break down rising gas and diesel prices, Trump's approval drag, and whether Dana Nessel's endorsement signals Democrats are finally uniting behind El-Sayed.
How can two good pollsters be 13 points apart in Iowa? We analyze registered vs. likely voter samples and why a split-ticket could happen.
Is there any chance for Ken Paxton in Texas? Talarico comes in leading all new polls in Texas again this week. We compare both to our own Overton Insights Texas poll and look at the NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll. We also ask whether quiet Republican voters could shrink the blue wave.
Could Nithya Raman win LA by double digits? A new poll shows Raman ahead of Mayor Karen Bass, and she now leads on Kalshi 57% to 42%. Mark predicts a double-digit point win, with a potential Spencer Pratt endorsement of Bass.

SHOW NOTES:

00:00 - Coming up: NYT/Siena drops in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire

00:45 - We predict these key senate races

04:32 - Michigan polls this week

06:51 - Gas, diesel, and the Trump problem

09:58 - Is the Democratic coalition finally uniting behind El-Sayed?

11:37 - Susan Collins leads in NYT/Siena poll of Maine

14:23 - Iowa's 13-point polling gap: Marist vs. Emerson

17:01 - More Texas polls show Talarico ahead

21:20 - New Hampshire still looks competitive

23:55 - Are quiet Republicans hiding in the polls?

25:01 - LA mayor: Nithya Raman surges past Karen Bass

26:45 - Would Spencer Pratt really endorse Karen Bass?

POLLS & LINKS:

📊 NYT/Siena Michigan Senate poll (9/15–9/22), El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/michigan-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Suffolk Michigan Senate poll (9/16–9/20), El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=3846F455203B08DE085D08400622793E4DB74FB2

📊 Emerson Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/

📊 Washington Post Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf

📊 InsiderAdvantage Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +2:

https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/

🎙 Nate Silver on gas and diesel prices: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2102491410029019311

📊 NYT/Siena Maine poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Marist Iowa poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102249505387151488

📊 Emerson Iowa poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/

📊 NPR/Marist Texas poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf

📊 Emerson Texas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/

📊 Overton Insights Texas poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

📊 NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll,: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

📊 Los Angeles mayoral runoff poll: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2102736228298674447

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Episode 17 Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

The generic ballot is moving fast toward Democrats, and Mark's not sure whether to call it a wave or a tsunami. But here are three races Republicans surprisingly have a chance at winning!

In this episode, we cover:

Blue wave or blue tsunami? – National generic ballot polling has swung hard toward Democrats, with likely-voter samples running as high as D+11 to D+13 (Marquette). We break down why the shift tracks so closely with Trump's approval, why the $5,000 checks aren't moving Republican voters, and what the roughly 10-point statewide movement means with just weeks to go.
Three competitive races Republicans should watch – In a D-leaning national environment, New Hampshire (Sununu vs Pappas), Oregon (Drazan vs. Kotek), and Minnesota (Tafoya vs Flanagan) are all much more competitive than many expected. We analyze why these states run on their own logic, plus a Maine deep dive on why Susan Collins is outperforming Trump by 20-plus points and holding a narrow lead over Troy Jackson.
Iowa's split-ticket setup – We discuss Rob Sand's strong run for governor, the tighter Turek–Hinson Senate race, and why voters cross party lines for governors far more readily than for senators. Mark flags Sand as a name to watch for potential 2028 presidential nominees.

SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode… 00:28 - Blue wave or blue tsunami? 01:00 - Likely voters make it worse: Marquette D+13 and the D+8-to-10 read 01:45 - A 10-point swing in nearly every state 02:12 - How much of this is just Trump's approval? 04:10 - Why the $5,000 checks aren't working 05:49 - Three races Republicans shouldn't be competitive in: NH, Oregon, Minnesota 07:25 - Maine deep dive: Collins vs. Jackson favorability and the double-haters 09:40 - Mark's upset pick: Susan Collins wins again 09:57 - Cook moves New Hampshire to toss-up 10:27 - Mark takes a victory lap on Sununu 11:35 - The unexpected potential map: Texas blue, New Hampshire red 12:59 - Setting the stage in Iowa 13:22 - Rob Sand, candidate quality, and the governor's race 15:50 - A 2028 name to watch 17:01 - Why voters split tickets for governor but not Senate 18:14 - Does that cross-party habit reach the Texas governor's race?

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights Texas Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 Marquette Law School Poll (likely voters, D+13): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/?n=@ 📊 Morning Consult generic ballot (D+4): https://intel.morningconsult.com/mc-content/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling 📊 Quantus Insights Maine Senate poll (Collins vs. Jackson): https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race 📊 Emerson Iowa polling: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 Cygnal Iowa poll: https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf 📰 Cook Political Report — New Hampshire Senate moved to toss-up: [LINK NEEDED]

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

Episode 16 Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

Our Texas poll is now included in Nate Silver's forecasts! Plus Olivia and Mark dig into three races most people may not be watching yet, plus the math both parties need in order to control the Senate after the midterms.

In this episode, we cover:

- Overton's Texas poll tops Nate Silver's forecast – Our recent Texas survey, built on a likely voter screen of over 1,100 respondents, is now weighted highest in Silver Bulletin's model. We break down what got us there and why methodology matters more than timing.

- Kansas gets its moment – A listener contest winner picked the topic, so we dig into the Kansas Governor's race between Cindy Holster and J.D. Masterson, plus the Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton Senate race. We discuss why Kansas isn't the deep-red state people assume, and why this is the first two-candidate governor's ballot the state has seen in 32 years.

- New Hampshire's under-the-radar Senate race – Mark makes the case for why John Sununu could be more competitive against Chris Pappas than the betting markets suggest, and what his family name means in a state with a surprisingly libertarian streak.

- Minnesota's stunner of a poll – A new TIPP survey has Michelle Tafoya down just two points to Peggy Flanagan, a huge indicator the race may be closer than one might expect. We discuss what it signals for Republicans across the Midwest.

- The path to Senate control – With Republicans holding a 53-47 edge, we rank the races that actually decide the majority, including Maine, Texas, and one Senator whose party affiliation could scramble the math entirely.

---

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Global Strategy Group poll, Kansas Governor's race (Holster internal): https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/28/nevada-dems-2028-reality-check-01053864 📊 University of New Hampshire poll, Sununu +2: https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/ 📊 TIPP poll for the League of American Workers, Minnesota Senate: https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-minnesota/ --- The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 15 Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

Is Texas a red state, a purple state, or something in between? Our new Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation poll finds the Paxton–Talarico Senate race locked in a dead heat when leaners are forced to choose a candidate, and our hypothetical matchips may upend everything you've heard about who the "electable" candidate really is.

In this episode, we cover:

It's football season! We asked over 1,100 likely Texas voters who the most obnoxious college fan base is. We crowned the Texas A&M Aggies as the winner with 29.7% and University of Texas took a close second with 27.4%. Surprisingly, the University of Houston Cougars came in third.
Is Texas actually turning purple? – 57% of Texans call their state reliably red, 38.3% say it's competitive, and just 4.7% call it blue. We break down why newcomers are far more likely to see purple, why nearly 29% of Republicans agree, and TPPF's Eric Oldfather makes the case that Texas is a "light red" state.
Paxton vs. Talarico is a coin flip – Ken Paxton sits at 43.4% to James Talarico's 44%, and the race lands at an exact 50-50 once leaners are pushed. We analyze why this is the best Senate number Paxton has posted in months, and why Talarico has to "pitch a perfect game" to win.
The Cornyn and Crockett myth-busting – Conventional wisdom said John Cornyn would have likely been the stronger nominee. This data says otherwise. Paxton trails Talarico by 0.6 points, and Cornyn by 0.9 points. On the other side, Jasmine Crockett loses to Paxton by 6 points. We discuss what that means for candidate quality versus the national environment.
Is the Texas power grid reliable? We polled the difference in confidence among voters during periods of extreme heat and extreme cold. Eric Oldfather from the Texas Public Policy Foundation joins us to discuss the state of the Texas power grid and what Texans should know about today's energy policy landscape.

POLLS & LINKS:

📊 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

This episode also features special guest Eric Oldfather, Vice President of Communications at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an Austin-based think tank. A sixth-generation Texan, Oldfather spent a decade as a digital marketing consultant for political campaigns and advocacy groups before joining TPPF, and holds a political science degree from George Washington University.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Explore our latest poll - September 2026 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

Episode 14 Aug 29, 2026

Show notes

Seventy-one percent of Americans don't want data centers built near them, and it's becoming one of the most critical issues on the 2026 ballot. This week we dig into why the industry lost the messaging war before it started, where Trump's approval is dragging Senate candidates, and a seasonality quirk that may make summer polls lean more Democratic.

In this episode, we cover:

Why are data centers the most hated issue of the cycle? – A leaked Senate GOP campaign memo warned AI companies that opposition to data centers is threatening a key Ohio seat. We break down why the backlash crosses party lines, how candidates like Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin are flipping the script, and why roughly 70% opposition is showing up in state after state ahead of our upcoming Texas poll.
Is Trump's approval sinking the Senate map? – With net approval sitting between minus 20 to 26, we analyze the balancing act Republican candidates face as November quickly approaches.
What's behind the summer polling bump for Democrats? – Patrick Ruffini's review of roughly 3,300 Senate polls found a late-July-to-August lean toward Democrats that fades by Election Day. We discuss the leading theories, from reluctant Republican voters to likely-voter model gaps, plus Nate Silver's take using the Michigan Senate race as a live example.

POLLS & LINKS:

📊 Gallup polling on data center sentiment (~71% unfavorable): https://news.gallup.com/poll/709772/americans-oppose-data-centers-area.aspx

📰 Axios reporting on the Senate GOP campaign memo (Ohio): https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/gop-data-center-memo-ai-election?utm_medium=referral

📊 Patrick Ruffini / Echelon Insights report on ~3,300 Senate polls: https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/why-senate-polling-is-always-worse

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 13 Aug 21, 2026

Show notes

What an upset in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary! Plus, our take on Median Strategies "social experiment" and how it hurts the credibility of legitimate pollsters.

In this episode, we cover:

How did a $16 million establishment favorite lose to a candidate with under $1 million? – We break down Angie Nixon's grassroots upset over Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate primary, why Mark thinks Democrats' habit of nominating "boring but well-funded" candidates keeps failing, and what Nixon's win means for Ashley Moody and Republicans' hold on the seat.
The internet is not real life, (as we expected) Florida governor edition – Byron Donalds won with 48% of the vote, and James Fishback's enthusiastic online following translated to a distant third-place finish behind Jay Collins.
A pollster admitted it made up numbers, and it got worse from there – The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) had Fishback within striking distance while every legitimate poll had him near 10%. We discuss their memo explaining they moved Jay Collins voters to Fishback, the "social experiment" claims from Median Strategies, and what G. Elliott Morris and AAPOR are doing about it.

SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a shocking Senate upset and a fake poll 00:22 - Angie Nixon takes down a $16 million favorite 02:25 - Was this a Mamdani-style campaign? Not quite 04:00 - The governor's race goes exactly as polling predicted 04:21 - Byron Donalds wins by 22, Fishback finishes a distant third 06:37 - David Jolly vs. Angie Nixon: two very different Democratic bets 09:06 - Electability and the late-decider question 10:14 - The Fishback polling problem, TPSI 13:10 - The memo that made it worse: "we changed the votes" 15:40 - Median Strategies and the "social experiment" scam 17:30 - Why internal candidate polls need more scrutiny 21:04 - How to spot a credible poll when you're scrolling X

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Echelon Insights (weekly platform usage, 27% X): https://echeloninsights.com/insights/august-2026-verified-voter-omnibus 🎙 G. Elliott Morris on excluding TPSI from aggregation: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/2090406757818359935 🎙 AAPOR statement on fabricated data: https://aapor.org/announcements/aapor-responds-to-fabricated-polling-data/

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Episode 12 Aug 14, 2026

Show notes

Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow.

In this episode, we cover:

- How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame.

- How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision.

- Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play.

SHOW NOTES:

00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York 00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin 03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier 05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in 06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics 09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll 11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP 11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore 13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York 14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold" POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/12/siena-hochul-has-10-point-lead-over-blakeman-in-first-poll-of-likely-voters-01033560 📊 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/wisconsin/ 🎲 Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 11 Aug 07, 2026

Show notes

The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it.

In this episode, we cover:

How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers.
Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled.
Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about.

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/ 📊 YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf 📊 NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html 🎲Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: kalshi.com/markets/senatetx 🎲Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: polymarket.com/predictions/texas-senate 📊 PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): https://www.wisn.com/article/crowley-campaign-argues-primary-is-closer-than-polls-say-after-michigan-results/73358997 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/07/29/marquette-law-poll-finds-expanded-support-for-hong-in-democratic-primary-barnes-sits-second-and-crowley-third/ 🎲Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 🎲Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner 📊 Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_Oz7n375ncOkmMWPs8DJTKcBD3Gke4-/view 📰 "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/us/politics/democratic-party-socialists-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=1 🎙 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084835353437860230?s=20

This episode of The Polling Alley features Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham, founder of the Beacon Poll, with special guest Randy Ellison, founder and president of Targoz Market Research and author of the Pollsters' Almanac on Substack.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Episode 10 Jul 30, 2026

Show notes

Will El-Sayed beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? New Emerson polling has Abdul El-Sayed up 15 over Haley Stevens, and Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement may have made things worse... In this episode, we cover:

Did Whitmer's endorsement backfire on Haley Stevens? – Fresh Emerson polling shows Abdul El-Sayed leading the Michigan Senate primary by 15 points, with a separate poll putting him up 11. We break down why Governor Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens right before Monday's debate seems to have cost her approval rating 16 points, and whether El-Sayed can hold the middle against Mike Rogers in a general election.

Could Ohio Split the Ticket? – Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton are running dead even for governor, and John Husted is trying to defend a Senate seat with little name recognition against Sherrod Brown. We dig into why polls and prediction markets align, and why Ohio may be more like Michigan than some want to admit.

Who do voters actually consider "elite"? – A new poll from The Argument / Verasight asked Americans to define the elite, and the answer wasn't professors or journalists. We discuss what the results mean for how both parties talk about class, and why Democrats may be stuck choosing between a primary they can win and a general they can't.

📊 Emerson College Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2... 📊 Tavern Research Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 📊 NY Times/Siena Poll, Ohio Governor Race: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2... 🎲 Ohio Governor Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyoh... 🎲 Ohio Senate Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/senateohs/... 📊 The Argument / Verasight Poll, "Who Are the Elites?": https://substack.com/@theargument/p-2...

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Poll Director Mark Cunningham.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.