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GND Plus MMT Equals a Marriage Made in Hell – Ep. 444 Feb 13, 2019

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The 7th Best Start Ever for the S&P 500
The Dow was up 372 points today, continuing the bear market rally. In fact, this is the best start for a year in almost 30 years - 28 years to be exact. I think it is the 7th best start ever for the S&P 500. Now I think the other 6 starts that were better; 3 of those happened during rather dubious circumstances. Two occurred during the Great Depression, and one of them happened in 1987, and we all know how that year ended up. So sometimes getting off to a good start doesn't necessarily mean that the year is going to finish strong, or the year, itself, is going to be a prosperous year. Again, I think the main reason that the market is so strong early this year is, A) because of the sharp decline we had at the end of last year and B) because the Federal Reserve came in to save the market precisely the way I had forecasted for many years.
How Many Times Can the Market Rally on the Same Good News?
We had a lot of news today that was supposedly good news which provided the extra catalyst for the market. The question, of course, is, "How many times can the market rally on the same good news? One of the pieces of good news was the fact that it looks like maybe there is some kind of compromise on the border that will avert a second government shutdown, and that is supposedly good news. Of course, we've been having this type of good news over and over again.
Also, on the trade front, there were some rumors that the negotiations were going well (some of these rumors started by Trump), so when the market hears that, and that they will probably extend the deadline. If the negotiations were really going great, they wouldn't have to extend the deadline.
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The Socialist Insanity of a Green Utopia – Ep. 443 Feb 09, 2019

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Disguising "Red" Goals in Green Wrapping
I'm still here in my hotel room in Orlando at the Money Show, but before I went downstairs on this Saturday morning, I wanted to record a podcast to address the issues raised by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, as she is now being referred to - I guess I'm just going to call her the bartender for simplicity. Well, anyway, the bartender-turned-congresswoman has released the laughable details of her "Green New Deal". Of course, the Green New Deal really lays bare the smokescreen that I have always believed existed with respect to extreme environmentalism. I've always thought that it masked a real desire for socialism; that the real goal of some of these radical environmentalists was socialism: nationalizing the means of production, getting government control. But they couldn't come out and say that. They had to disguise their "red" goals with green wrapping.
This Bartender is Advocating Fascism
They had to approach it as an environmental issue;"Hey, we have to save the planet!" and, yeah, who isn't in favor of that? Everybody wants clean air and clean water. So the way the Socialists really try to wedge their way into the mainstream was with this veneer of Environmentalism. But when you actually read the "Green New Deal", it blows all the smoke away. It really lays bare the Socialist agenda of environmentalists. Really, that's what the Green New Deal is all about. It's Red. It's all about turning America into a Socialist economy, or more particularly, a Fascist economy, because Fascism is really the form of Socialism that best describes what this bartender is advocating.
The Government Taking over the Means of Production
I have said from the beginning when Ocasio-Cortez ( the bartender) describes herself as a Democratic Socialist - "I'm not a real Socialist, I am a DEMOCRATIC Socialist - putting the word "Democratic before something bad doesn't make something bad into something good. If you read this proposal, it is pure, unadulterated Socialism. It is about the government taking over the means of production. The bartender actually believes that the government, by micromanaging the economy, it will succeed in creating prosperity. This is what every Socialist who has risen to power, rather by force or by vote, has promised the public. They always promise pie-in-the sky prosperity, all these great things that the government is going to provide. In order to get people to buy into this, they have to create a false threat of global warming.
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Misstate of the Union – Ep. 442 Feb 06, 2019

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State of the Union Not Addressed
Last night President Trump delivered what purported to be a State of the Union address but really, Donald Trump talked about a lot of things, but he didn't really speak at all about the State of the Union. Bernie Sanders recorded his own response. He didn't do the official Democratic response; that was done by Stacey Abrams, the woman who ran for and lost the Governorship of Georgia in 2018. She was a Democratic candidate. I think the Democrats are grooming her probably to run for Senate in 2020 so they wanted to put her up on that stage and shine the spotlight on her.
Bernie Did a Better Job of Laying out Economic Problems
But Bernie Sanders delivered his own response on YouTube, and Bernie Sanders did a much better job of describing the problems in the U.S. economy, that Donald Trump ignored in his State of the Union address. He spoke a little bit about the economy; he said we're having an "economic miracle" here in the Unites States, that we were the envy of the world, the hottest economy in the world. Everything is great, and theoretically the only thing that could screw it up is if the Democrats keep going after him with this ridiculous investigation, but everything is doing great, which, of course is a bunch of nonsense.
Socialism, However, Won't Work
Bernie Sanders did a much better job of presenting the facts. He pointed out that maybe, if Donald Trump is talking about his rich friends at Mar-a-Lago Country Club - for those guys, the economy is great. But for average Americans, the economy is lousy and Sanders describes some of the problems that Donald Trump overlooked or ignored when he gave his address. This is going to be the problem for the Republicans in 2020 when they run for re-election, talking about how great the economy is, they don't have a chance. It's the Democrats who will be feeling the pain of the voters and coming up with their own solution. The problem is, the solutions that Bernie Sanders is putting forth, Socialism, aren't going to work.
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Truth Is the Real Victim – Ep. 441 Feb 02, 2019

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Stronger than Expected Jobs Number
We actually got a bunch of economic data released today; apparently the shutdown no longer is affecting some of these newer releases, although we still have a bunch of old data that has yet to be released. I have a feeling that there is a lot of weak economic data that has yet to come out. Today we got some stronger than expected data including the January jobs number. They were looking for 158,000 jobs to be created, which would follow the 312,000 number that we got for December, which was a surprisingly strong number. So the consensus was that we would have a weaker number in January; but we ended up with 304,000 jobs allegedly being created in January.
December Jobs Number Revised Down 90,000 Jobs
But they now tell us that we didn't create 312,000 jobs in December - we only created 222,000 jobs, which is still a pretty big number, but it's 90,000 less. That's a huge revision, to think that they were off by 90,000 jobs. Maybe they're off by 90,000 jobs in January. I guess we'll have to wait another month to find out. But that number was much bigger than what was expected; and of course, even if you take into consideration the revisions, it was still a better net number than what the markets were looking for.
U6 Went from 7.6% to 8.1%
The official unemployment rate rose to 4%. Part of that was because the Labor Force Participation Rate continued to notch up. It went from 63.1 to 63.2, and since more people are now looking for work, those people are now officially unemployed. But a bigger story than the official rate is the U6 rate, which is far more accurate if you want to get a real look at the U.S. labor market. Of course, it's not 100% accurate because it only includes discouraged workers who have discouraged for under a year. So it doesn't capture any of the long-term unemployed, which are a big part of the American labor market. But the U6 rate includes the short-term discouraged workers, but also the people who are working part time, but who really want to work full time. We had a surge, like half a million part-time jobs were added according to household survey during the month, so a lot of people working part time - they probably want to work full time, but they are settling for part time work. That meant that the U6 number went from 7.6 to 8.1.
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Powell Pause Won’t be Enough – Ep. 440 Jan 31, 2019

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Monetary Drug Pushers
Earlier today, the monetary drug pushers at the Federal Reserve gave the addicts on Wall Street exactly the fix that they have been craving. In fact, not only did Powell deliver exactly what the doctor ordered with respect to interest rates, saying the Fed was going to remain "patient", probably indefinitely, with respect to another rate hike, but Powell also made it clear that the balance sheet wind-down, otherwise known as quantitative tightening, was off of auto-pilot. In fact, based on what Powell said, I would be surprised to see any significant reductions in the Fed's balance sheet from here. Not surprising, the market rallied as a result of getting what they wanted out of the Fed. At one point, I think, the Dow was up better than 500 points, but it did close up 434 points - back above 25,000 - 25,014.86, to be precise.
Quantitative Easing and a Return to Zero
But, you know, just like any addict, they can never get enough. I think that soon the markets are going to be demanding a lot more from the Fed than just a cessation of rate hikes and a commitment not to shrink the balance sheet. I think what the addicts are going to require is going to be more quantitative easing and a return to zero, and that is exactly what the Federal Reserve is going to provide, once it realizes that that's what's necessary. Of course, I don't think that is going to work; I think that is going to deliver the overdose that I have been warning about since the Fed first went down this mistaken policy road. I knew that we would ultimately end up exactly where we're headed. It's just that the markets still haven't figured this out.
Markets Need to Focus on the Why
The markets really need to be focusing on the Why. Not just looking at what the Fed is doing, but why the Fed is doing it, and what it actually means about the underlying health of the U.S economy or the efficacy of prior Fed policy. Now if you listened to the press conference, or even just read the prepared remarks, the Federal Reserve wants to pretend that everything is still great - that the U.S. economy is still in great shape. In fact, the Fed wants to pretend the U.S. economy is just a good as it was when it hiked rates during the September meeting, let alone the
December meeting.
Continued Rate Hikes and Auto Pilot QT
Going back to September, when the Fed was saying that they were going to do maybe 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019, and that the balance sheet unwind was on auto-pilot, that the Fed was going to set that aside and sell off about $50 billion worth of treasuries and mortgages every month, just forget about it, not even worry about it and that the Fed was going to simply focus on interest rates.
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Government Shutdown Ends, Fed Capitulation Continues – Ep. 439 Jan 26, 2019

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Downwardly Moving Expectations
The record-breaking partial U.S. government shutdown looks like it has now come to an end. Donald Trump today announcing that he is going to be re-opening the government for three weeks, and during that time we will have negotiations regarding funding for the border wall, the barrier, the smart wall - whatever it is being called now. Donald Trump seems to be downwardly moving his expectations of what that wall would constitute, how much terrain it would cover, but at the end of the day, I don't believe that whatever compromise we get 3 weeks from now is going to include any type of funding for the wall.
Democrats Trying to Teach Trump a Lesson
And I think that the President talking about potentially shutting the government down again in 3 weeks if the wall money is not there, I think that's an empty threat; I think that is a bluff that would be easily called by the Democrats. If you look at the Democratic press conference that followed the Trump announcement, Chuck Schumer basically said,"I hope the President learned his lesson." I'm surprised he even said that because it is admission that the Democrats were trying to teach Trump a lesson. That is, in fact, probably what they did.
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Socialism’s Slippery Slope – Ep. 438 Jan 24, 2019

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Broader Averages Up
The Dow Jones rose 171 points today recovering a little better than half of yesterday's 300 point decline, helped by some better than expected earnings in both IBM and Proctor and Gamble. The broader averages is also up, but not nearly as much, because of the impact from those stocks; obviously not as strong. In fact, the NASDAQ, and even the S&P 500 all took out yesterday's lows intra-day, but still managed to eke out small gains - actually the Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day.
Dow Transports Down All Day
But the Dow Transports were down all day. They didn't even recover; they closed off the lows, adding about 48 points to yesterday's decline. But everybody in the financial media, in fact everybody at Davos (I'm going to talk about that in a minute) but everybody seems to be completely forgetting the bear market. Ignoring the fact that we went into a bear market and pretending that either we're back in a correction of the bull market or we've actually left correction territory, as if the bull market is still intact, and that bear market that we had never even really took place.
I Wouldn't Bet on the Fact That the Bear Market Is Over
Now, it is possible that the bear market is over. I am not saying it's impossible. It seems to me again that it is extremely unlikely that the longest bull market in history is going to be followed by the shortest bear market in history. I guess it could happen but I wouldn't want to bet on it. A lot of people seem to be betting on it. To me, again, the rally that we had made a lot of sense. After all, the Fed came in and did exactly what I have been saying it is going to do since before they raised rates for the first time.
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Lies of the Left – Ep. 437 Jan 21, 2019

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High School Students Smeared by Mainstream Media
I am still out in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Resource Conference. I will be back in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. But I wanted to take a little time out to record this podcast here in my hotel room to address just one topic. And that has to do with this viral video that was making the rounds early yesterday that purported to show a group of high school students taunting an elderly Native American. As soon as this thing went out, spreading throughout the internet, the conduct of the high school students was condemned by everybody.
Fanning the Flames
All the celebrities and the media, everybody on the left we out there condemning the actions of these kids. In fact even the school - they were from an all-boys Catholic high school. Of course, there is nothing racist about the fact that the high school was all boys; there are all-girl Catholic high schools. The idea being that maybe you can educate kids better if they are concentrating on their studies, rather than members of the opposite sex. But even the school administrators or the principal came out and said they condemn the conduct of their students and they're going to look into this and that this does not reflect their values. Of course they're very tolerant, they're not racist, they don't discriminate. Maybe they will even expel these boys. Of course, that comment actually helped fuel the fire.
This Whole Thing is Made Up
I really wish that people would not be so quick to throw people under the bus when confronted by this feigned outrage from the left. This whole thing is just made up. If the government had been skewing this with would be called propaganda. But it is not the government; it is the media elites, it is the left that has concocted a fake story. They have altered the facts to conform to their agenda.
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In Bear Markets Rallies Are Corrections – Ep. 436 Jan 19, 2019

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It Is Not a New Bull Market
The U.S. stock market averages continued the bear market correction - the correction actually extended for another week. We capped a strong week with a strong gain today across the board. But this is a correction. It is not a new bull market. But of course, if you watch stations like CNBC you wouldn't know that. All day today all they kept talking about on CNBC was that the market is now out of correction territory, meaning that it is no longer down 10% from the highs, and so we're no longer in a correction.
We Entered a Bear Market
First of all, we didn't enter a correction - we entered a bear market. Now, bear markets have corrections, too. They're called rallies, except people at CNBC don't get that. They think the only correction is a move down in a bull market. Now this bull market went on for 10 years, so a lot of these guys don't remember the last bear market, and it wasn't even that long. A lot of these bear markets have been very short. They decline 40-50% and then the Fed was able to come in and save the day. But people don't get that we are in a bear market now. We haven't made new highs, so any rally is a correction. Certainly a rally of more than 10% - that's the same definition for the downward correction in a bull market. So if you want to apply that definition to an upward correction in a bear market - we are in a correction. This is a pretty big correction, helping the bear market fall a slope of hope.
Russell 2000 Had Best Annual Start Since 1987
The Dow was up around 330 points today, back up to 24,706.35. In fact, if you look at the Dow Jones year to date, we're up almost 6% so far this year. Strong move. We're not even finished with the month of January. Of course we have a holiday weekend, s the markets will not be open on Monday celebrating Martin Luther King Day. But there are still quite a few days left in January. The NASDAQ composite is actually outdoing the Dow, it is now up almost 8% on the year and the biggest gainer is the Russell 2000. It's up almost 10%. In fact the Russell 2000 is having its best annual start since 1987. Now, of course, 1987 didn't end well for the Russell 2000 or any of the stock markets. That was the year of the stock market crash in October.
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The Eye of the Financial Hurricane – Ep. 435 Jan 16, 2019

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The Eye of the Financial Hurricane
U.S. stock markets continue to bask in the eye of this financial hurricane. Remember, we ended the hurricane following the September rate hike, and if you recall I titled my podcast, "The Hike that Broke the Camel's Back", and that's what really began the sell-off in the market. We had this horrific fourth quarter, the worst December since 1931. It may have ended up being the worst December ever had it not been saved by that last-minute Santa Claus rally - the biggest Boxing Day (Day after Christmas) rally ever, which followed the worst Christmas Eve in stock market history.
The Fed's New Dovish Outlook
But we entered the eye when the Federal Reserve came out and rescued the markets by backtracking on their previously indicated path of continued rate hikes and quantitative tightening. In fact, we had a lot of people come out this week from the Federal Reserve today, again, reiterating their new dovish outlook. Everybody is a dove. There are no more stock market hawks. Like there are no atheists in a foxhole - in a bear market there are not hawks, there are only doves. That included people who are no longer on the Federal Reserve. Fmr. Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen came out yesterday, and she said that she thinks it is very possible that the December rate hike is the last rate hike in the cycle. She's right about that. It's not just very possible, it's probable. Yesterday we had Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that the Fed is going to raise rates fewer times than they had indicated in their most recent press conference. Of course, by then, they had indicated two rate hikes. Now he is saying they are going to raise rates fewer than two, which could be one, but it could also be zero.
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