The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

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Help Me Correct Wikipedia’s Liberal Bias Jun 25, 2015

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[fusion_text]
In reviewing my Wikipedia page, I noticed some information that is either wrong or narrowly slanted to promote a negative impression of me. We've tried to correct the issue, but Wikipedia makes it very difficult for anyone directly connected to the person or subject of the page to make changes, claiming "Conflict of Interest". This opens the door, however, for those who have a good grasp of editing Wikipedia but who have a decided "left" slant to claim the substance and the direction of the information. Once it's out there, it is very difficult to fix. Wikipedia wants editors to be unrelated to the subject to make contributions. Below are a few things that should be added to the page. Please feel free to make these additions as you would like. Please note that changes need to be discussed in the "Talk" page, first. Here are Ten Simple Rules for Editing Wikipedia.
[/fusion_text][/one_full][one_full]
[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]On Minimum Wage[/title][fusion_text]
Eliminate the minimum wage so teenagers and other low-skill workers can get jobs, and acquire the on-the-job training necessary to earn higher wages in the future. It should not be illegal for people who lack skills to accept employment. The minimum wage punishes workers by legally preventing them from offer their services below a specified legal minimum. If they do not have the skills to justify that minimum, it is illegal for them to work, even if they can offer some value to employers, just not enough to cover the minimum wage mandated by government. So instead of entry level jobs, that will lead to higher skills and wages in the future, many individuals are rendered legally unemployable. People have a right to accept any job that they personally prefer to unemployment. Government should not substitute its judgement for the judgment of workers.[/fusion_text][/one_full]
[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]The Housing Market[/title][fusion_text]The government should stay out of housing completely. Abolish agencies that loan money or guarantee mortgages etc. no FHA, Fannie, Freddie. No Department of Housing and Urban Development. There should be a free market in housing. What I actually said on the home mortgage deduction was that, absent the repeal of the entire income tax, we should have a flat rate tax with no deductions including home mortgage, but that would include a much lower rate, so that the removal of the home mortgage deduction did not result in higher taxes. It just eliminates the government- created incentive to buy verses rent.[/fusion_text]
Peter Schiff Says The Real Financial C...
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Greece is a Sideshow. U.S. is the Main Event – Ep.89 Jun 23, 2015

Show notes

* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit"
* Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side
* As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems
* So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt
* The same is true for cuts to government spending
* The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table
* Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country
* All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend
* The markets are higher - the euro down big
* The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit
* In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong
* Given the electorate, this move is unlikely
* Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money
* The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week
* The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations
* Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast
* Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates
* Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market
* Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession
* May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations
* X transportation met recently reduced expectations
* Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths
* Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013
* Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations
* Home ownership rate continues to fall
* Rents are rising
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Yellen Almost Admits Fed Not Ready to Raise Rates Jun 18, 2015

Show notes

* Today was the expected day for expected rate hikes, indicating economic "lift-off"
* The June rate hike is off the table and everyone is focusing attention on September
* The prepared remarks are just a smokescreen to maintain the pretense that the economy can withstand a rate hike
* The Q&A session after the the prepared remarks were more revealing
* Janet Yellen ducked the question of why people who recommend postponing the rate hike to 2016 are wrong
* Yellen stated that the "dots" used to forecast rates are based on mere projections
* The FOMC is always too optimistic about the economy, so if they are wrong again, the dots are meaningless
* Yellen tacitly admits she is hiding behind the data, stating that even if rates to rise, it will be a nominal amount
* Yellen's response to CNBC's Steve Liesman question regarding what labor milestone would justify a rate hike was especially telling
* She said she needs to see further improvement in the Labor Market before she begins to raise rates
* How much improvement does Yellen expect in the labor market over the next three months?
* There is a good chance that the labor market will not be as strong in the next three months
* She is letting the cat out of the bag; saying that rate hike is not likely in September, either
* Yellen questioned the "obsession" about when rate hikes start because the first rate hike will not necessarily indicate normalization
* She is indicating that a rate hike may be symbolic
* The highly stimulative rate of zero to .25 is only necessary when trying to sustain a bubble
* In response to a question about the Federal Reserve under Greenspan, Yellen indicated that it was a mistake for him to raise rates slowly and methodically
* I was vocal Greenspan's decisions at that time, arguing that his actions were creating the real estate bubble
* Yellen is now moving interest rates even more slowly over a period of 7 years
* I may not be the only person who noticed how dovish Yellen's statements are
* The knee-jerk reaction on the Fed's statement was to buy the dollar, but quickly turned into a selloff, and it intensified during the Q&A session
* The dollar was on the lows of the day as it gets closer to the time rates were expected to raise
* My video blogs are always available on schiffradio.com and on YouTube
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Wall Street Begins to Question Fed’s Narrative – Ep. 88 Jun 15, 2015

Show notes

* Dow under pressure on the back of EU talks with Greece
* There is a lot of room for the market to decline pending the Fed's announcements
* The consensus is that rates will hike September or later
* If Fed does not rates in September, Election year next year might also put off rate hikes
* Bloomberg article quotes B of A hinting that additional stimulus would further damage the economy
* B of A admits this risk has been getting the least amount of attention
* Empire State Manufacturing Index missed 5.9 forecast - came in at -1.98
* May Industrial Production expected +.2 - came in at -.2
* Capacity Utilization dropped 78.3 to 78.1
* Manufacturing down .2
* Industrial Production has been negative for 4 of the last 6 months
* Currency markets still believe Fed will raise rates
* Consumer spending was up in May because of rise in gas prices
* Weekly Jobless claims saw a slight uptick - exceeded forecast
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continues to decline
* Listener's Questions, Peter's Answers to resume on this podcast
* Submit your questions on schiffradio.com
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Con Job Report – Ep. 87 Jun 06, 2015

Show notes

* Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government
* ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates
* 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline
* Unemployment rate dropped
* Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point
* Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers
* Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows
* Older Americans want part-time jobs, so increase of part-time jobs contribute to increase in all jobs
* Given the strong government jobs number, the media is discounting all the weak data, including GDP, productivity, consumer spending and industrial production
* The jobs we're creating do not reflect economic strength
* The weekly unemployment numbers are hovering at 42-year lows
* Does anyone believe that this is the strongest economy in 42 years?
* The hiring numbers are suspect to begin with because of the government's assumptions
* The Trade Deficit dropped not because our exports surged, but because out imports plunged
* Our economy is too weak to support a greater number of imports
* A closer look at the data behind the government jobs number actually supports the rest of the weak economic data
* Personal Income and Spending on the month missed estimates
* May Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly
* April Factory Orders fell by more than expected
* Year over year, orders are down 6.4%
* 6th consecutive month that factory orders have been down year over year
* This has only happened in America during a recession
* Mortgage applications fell sharply on the week - 7.6% decline, led by a 12% decline in re-fi's
* May Services PMI fell to 56.2 - lowest level since January
* ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.7 - the lowest level of the year
* The revision to Q1 Productivity - 3.1% decline
* We also had a decline in 2014 Q4
* Corporate profits plunged 5.9% in Q1
* Unit Labor Costs surged by 6.7% - this does not represent wages
* All this data predicts future layoffs
* The Fed knows this, so they are reluctant to raise rates
* The Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.5 the 8th consecutive decline - the first time in its 30 - year history
* The Dow continued to decline on the jobs report
* NASDAQ still hanging in
* Margin debt is at a record high
* The dollar was stronger on the week
* The euro finished positive
* By next year European inflation will force the Bundesbank to retreat from QE
* Gold was down on the week, as euro strength signals QE less likely in Europe
* Expectations of rising interest rates have been suppressing gold, but when reality rears its ugly head, the sellers will be gone and the buyers will be out in full force
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Markets Still Fooled as Fed Plays “Let’s Pretend” – Ep. 86 May 30, 2015

Show notes

* Short week closed with some horribly bad news
* People are not paying attention to the data; they are paying attention to the Fed
* Government released revision to the GDP: -.7
* The assumption of deflation is cooked into the number
* Most Q2 data is weak
* Q1 Corporate profits plunged by 5.9%
* JP Morgan announced 5,000 layoffs
* Corporations are already levered up to the max
* May Chicago PMI plunged back down to 46.2 - close to March's -year low
* April Durable Goods fell .5
* March Services PMI fell to 56.4 - second monthly drop
* May Dallas Fed Manufacturing crashed to -20.8; fifth consecutive monthly decline
* The Fed has never predicted a recession; in fact they have forecasted economic growth while in a recession
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: fell for the 7th consecutive week
* There are fewer good jobs available and if someone loses their job the are likely to have to take one they are overqualified for
* The Fed is too concerned about maintaining the illusion of prosperity to allow genuine prosperity
* They are propping up the stock market and the housing market, pretending everything is OK, and allowing the government to continue deficit spending
* People still think the Fed will raise interest rates; the most we would get is a trivial hike< just to say they raised rates to get things back to normal
* There is no more normal anymore; the new normal is interest rates at zero and perpetual QE until the whole thing blows up
* How can we expect to learn from our ancestors when we can't even learn from our own mistakes?
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Currency Traders Still Buying Rate Hike Rhetoric – Ep. 85 May 23, 2015

Show notes

* The U.S. dollar started out this morning on the defensive
* Government released CPI numbers generated a sharp reversal across the board
* Gold sold off, but closed slightly down against the dollar
* April CPI up just .1% on the month; year over year prices dropped -.2%
* Lowest CPI since October 2009
* Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose .3%
* Biggest monthly jump since March 2006
* News sent dollar up on anticipation that rate hike will be more likely
* Inflation benchmark is just as real as the 6-1/2% unemployment goal
* Traders still haven't figured out that if we ever approach the goal, it will be moved
* Biggest factor within the .3% rise in the Core was +.7% in health care costs
* Biggest increase since January 2007 - prior to Obamacare
* Rising costs will slow consumer spending, weakening the economy and undermining employment
* Yellen in a press conference today did not actually project a rate hike
* It's all about extend and pretend; actually postponing the rate hike will buy the Fed some time before launching QE4
* Increased inflation as the economy cools down means stagflation
* The media is spinning increased inflation as good news
* Bad economic news released yesterday:
* Unemployment numbers came out higher
* Fewer hires mean fewer fires
* Chicago Fed National Activities Index came in at -.15
* Three month moving average down to -.23
* MAY PMI expected to rise to 54.6 unexpectedly declined to 53.8 - lowest lever in 16 months
* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continued to slide from 43.5 to 42.4
* May Philadelphia Fed looked for a bounce back to 8; missed expectations with 6.7
* Missed expectations 5 out of the last 6 months
* Existing Home Sales expected improvement over March; dropped to 5.04 million
* Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -13; dropping for 5 consecutive months
* Economic data as bad as 2009 and inflation is getting worse
* Janet Yellen acknowledged underlying issues with unemployment number, mentioned discouraged and part-time workers
* Labor Force Participation Rate is not improving
* Low-skilled jobs in jeopardy with minimum wage hikes
* $15/hr fever will further hurts employment and erodes the tax base
* Higher minimum wage will transform workforce because employers will hire better workers for the higher wages
* Movement will substitute technology for labor costs
* Minimum wage hikes will undermine the economic recovery that Janet Yellen pretends is existing
* So she can continue to pretend that the Fed's monetary policy is working
* And she can pretend that they can actually raise interest rates
* In the unlikely event Yellen tests a rate hike, they will have to acknowledge that they were wrong
* The Fed can always blame the data for deciding not to raise rates and therefore save face
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The Fix Is In. Government to Rig GDP Again. – Ep. 84 May 21, 2015

Show notes

* Earlier today latest FOMC minutes released
* Once again the weather is blamed for missed expectations, pretending the economy is better than it is
* Now the Fed dismiss numbers as inaccurate, because seasonal adjustments are off
* Why does the government need to seasonally adjust the numbers
* Yearly GDP is the number that matters
* Once the numbers begin adjusting the numbers you open the floodgates to manipulation and subjectivity
* Wall Street analysts tend to be more optimistic for the first quarter
* Studies show that Consumers spend most money in Q4; by the following Q1 consumers are taking a break
* Same studies show Q2 is usually stronger
* Why does the government have to come back with a new GDP measurement in order to come up with a bigger number?
* To come up with low unemployment numbers they find ways to under-calculate the unemployed and count under-employed
* Analysts are discounting weak data and expecting eventual rate hikes
* The Fed is denying the weak economy not because they want to raise rates, but because they can't admit that their monetary policy has failed
* Mixed economic data came out this week
* Housing Market Expectation Index dropped from 56 in April to 54 in May - missing estimates for fifth time in 6 months
* Housing Starts surged to 6 or 7-year high
* Lingering optimism for a recovery
* Walmart came in far below estimates, attributing miss to the strong dollar
* Walmart is a net importer, so the strong dollar should work in its favor
* Big drop in gasoline prices in Q1 did not provide a boost for Walmart because the underlying economy is weak
* Los Angeles is the largest city in the country to pass the $15/hr minimum wage
* They staggered the increase over 5 years, so adverse effects will not be directly attributed to those who voted for the increased minimum wage
* It will be difficult to measure decisions not to hire as a result of the minimum wage
* The $15/hr minimum wage makes it illegal to hire low-skilled workers for less, preventing them from gaining skills in order to earn more later
* We're hiring at Schiff Gold - If you are interested contact Matthew Malleo 800-465-3160
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Fewer Hires Means Fewer Fires – Ep. 83 May 17, 2015

Show notes

* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high
* Dollar continues to fall
* The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news
* Lower dollar will be the trend
* Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news
* Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years
* Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired
* Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month
* What if these businesses are not actually created?
* This would explain lower number of unemployment claims
* There's no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years
* Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row
* Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May
* Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3%
* This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009
* Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever
* If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging?
* The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009
* The bubble is rapidly deflating
* Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery"
* The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator
* The Fed has not forecast a single recession
* Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts
* If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike
* At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate
* The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year
* At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming
* The only question is, What is the Fed going to do?
* The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level
* This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar
* Oil prices will spike
* Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1
* Consumer Confidence will plunge
* Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policy
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U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82 May 14, 2015

Show notes

* Another week and another round of bad economic news
* Wall Street may be finally paying attention
* JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million
* April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat
* X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1
* Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries
* Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009
* Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014
* A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs
* The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report
* These numbers came from a biased source
* The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim
* Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't
* Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth
* March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2%
* February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2%
* I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1%
* The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year
* The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year
* It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2
* Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession
* If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus
* I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession
* When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4
* When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison
* The dollar has already broken its uptrend
* Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus
* What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus
* Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance.
* The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one
* It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster
* Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now.
* How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet?
* Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar
* You can see the beginnings of it today
* The dollar was down across the board
* Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up
* All this bad economic data is going to sink in
* It is not the weather
* The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak
* The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again
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